Alabama Politics in
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Here’s another event where Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh was the sole Republican PSC presidential candidate invited though all GOP candidates (or, in this case, both) for another position were invited. How does she do that?

A trio of Republicans running in next month’s primary election brought their campaigns to Huntsville.

Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh, a candidate for Public Service Commission president, and Mary Windom and Chris Mixon, rivals for the Place 2 position on the Alabama Court of Criminal Appeals, were guests at a luncheon Tuesday hosted by the Huntsville Republican Women.

A reader close to a rival campaign tells the Parlor that GOP PSC presidential candidates Matt Chancey and Jack Hornady were not aware of the event. Looks like Cavanaugh is starting out as the presumptive nominee or her campaign is doing a terrific job of creating that impression.

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• Race for the PSC Presidency
• Host Committee for Cavanaugh Fundraiser
• Cavanaugh's Inside Track

Folks (like Rollcall, for one) are taking notice that Cheryl Baswell Guthrie announced that her AL-05 campaign raised $200,000 in 30 days. She has pledged to put up to $100,000 of her own money into the campaign, and so it is a bit unclear how much of the $200k might be her own.

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If you want an unofficial campaign pin for David Grimes or Harri Anne Smith, your moment has arrived. One of each is available on Ebay. A Smith campaign staffer says the Smith campaign has produced no such pins, and we may safely assume that David Grimes has not either. Note that neither has the usual “Paid for by…” message.

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Republican state Senator Harri Anne Smith held two press conferences today, in Dothan at 11 and in Montgomery at 2, to announce that Giles Building and Loan President John Giles had endorsed her candidacy for AL-02.

Giles is more famous for the ten years he headed the Christian Coalition of Alabama, and he served on the staffs of two governors (Hunt and James).

Smith said in a prepared statement that she was “very happy to be receiving a key endorsement today, one I am proud of for a number of reasons.” She added:

First of all, he has always worked to protect the sanctity of life.

Second, he has been my friend in many political battles, fighting against taxes and waste.

And third he has always stood for what is right for Alabama by fighting against the expansion of gambling in our state.

In his endorsement, Giles said that Smith was “unequivocally qualified, electable, and proven, tried and tested on tough issues.”

Edit: All in all, judging from what I have read in email and comments, seems best to strike through this bit below.

“Good Morning Montgomery” on ABC’s Montgomery affiliate announced this morning that Emory Folmar had endorsed Smith. Her campaign would welcome the endorsement but at this writing does not know of any official endorsement from the former Montgomery mayor.

Update: One reader who is more connected than most of us says that Emory Folmar is not endorsing anyone.

Odd… that one outlet would have it and others would not.

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Republican Jay Love has a new TV ad for the AL-02 race.

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Republican Angelo “Doc” Mancuso has a radio ad for the AL-05 race.

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Republican state Senator Harri Anne Smith begins airing her first television ad tonight in her quest to win the race for AL-02.

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• Schmidtke on the Air in AL-02
• David Woods On the Air
• Jay Love On the Air Again

MRI has been polling the race for the GOP nomination for the 2nd Congressional District. Confirmed. (MRI does the polling for the Smith campaign.)

Though the campaign did not want to confirm (or deny) the numbers as I have them, I feel confident these are the results of the latest Smith tracking poll.

Other candidates did not register.

The polling was done after Smith skipped the television debate and fumbled the Country Crossing issue. We can probably agree that those episodes didn’t register in the minds of most voters though many people here certainly took note. In an early poll in October before the field was settled, Smith was at 24%.

If we continue to look at this as Wiregrass vs. the Montgomery area, then it looks like Love and Woods are scrambling to make the run-off as the Montgomery candidate against Smith. If Smith slips so much that two Montgomery candidates are in a run-off for the nomination, that will be quite a story.

FWIW, I am a bit surprised that newcomer Schmidtke is as high as he is.

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• Sen. Smith to Miss TV Debate
• Smith Was Against It Before She Was For It
• AL-02 Poll: New Numbers

The conventional wisdom on the Republican side of the 2nd Congressional Race is that there are too many viable candidates for anyone to receive a majority of the vote in the June 3rd primary. So with two tickets out of the primary, it’s pretty clear that the regional split between the Wiregrass and Montgomery metro area will result in a Republican from each end of the district in the runoff. With Harri Anne Smith perceived to have coalesced the Dothan/Wiregrass area behind her campaign, all that’s left will be to see which Republican comes out of Montgomery.

The early money was on Jay Love. The former Subway shop owner and state representative has the right profile for a GOP primary, implicit backing of the Montgomery GOP establishment including the Governor, and the ability to inject his own money into the campaign. However, somewhere along the road to the Love coronation, the parade has gotten a little off track. Fellow Montgomery State Rep. David Grimes was thought by many to be unlikely to actually make the ballot. Grimes will likely be outspent heavily by most of his opponents, but as a popular local Montgomery official any vote he gets will come off of Love.

But the biggest hurdle to Love’s path to the runoff is David Woods. When the TV mogul declared for the race, many expected his to follow the same ill-fated path as his war hero father’s political career. But Woods not only looks to be able to match Love dollar for dollar from his own pocket, but actually outraised Love in the 1st Quarter this year. Love’s inability to show the fundraising pop expected of a frontrunner, has opened the door for a challenge in his own backyard. If Woods is able to achieve a rough parity with Love in the Montgomery area, the Woods’ family roots in the Wiregrass might steal enough votes to thrust Woods into the runoff with Harri Anne Smith.

By no means should Love be counted out. He’s still the lead horse on the Montgomery side of the GOP race. But his path to victory seems to be growing more difficult and it no longer seems inconceivable his bid for Congress could end sooner rather than later.

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Republican candidate Cheryl Baswell-Guthrie is on the air in CD-05.

Associated Press has noted that using Obama as a “Democratic albatross” for Democratic candidates is becoming something of a trend with Republicans. The strategy was not ultimately successful in Lousiana this weekend as a Democrat won a special election in a Republican stronghold for a seat that the GOP held for over 30 years. Bush had received 59% of the vote there in 2004.

The NRCC said that the strategy was indeed effective in Louisiana because Democrat Don Cazayoux had a much wider lead over Republican Woody Jenkins before the ads ran that linked Cazayoux to Obama. So perhaps the above ad will be effective for Cheryl Baswell-Guthrie.

But in the Republican primary?

Republican Wayne Parker is also on the air in CD-5.

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Noted polling outfit Anzalone Liszt has polled the 3rd Congressional District for Democratic candidate Joshua Segall. A reader who attended a Segall fundraiser picked up a copy of the “Summary of Polling Results in Alabama’s Third Congressional District” and passed it along. You may read the whole thing (one page) here (pdf).

An excerpt:

Alabama’s Third Congressional District was drawn to be a swing district and despite years of Republican representation the district has retained its competitiveness. Republicans hold just a three-point lead on the generic ballot, and a majority of voters say things in the U.S. are moving in the wrong direction. This electorate is looking for change at the national level. Although Mike Rogers leads unknown challenger Joshua Segall, Rogers’ support is soft and falls under 50% after voters receive basic information about both candidates. The race will be competitive if Segall has the resources to compete in paid communications.

See the whole document in a pdf file.

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• Segall Raises Quarter Million
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An AEA poll on the race for the Public Service Commission Presidency is floating around that shows Democrat Lucy Baxley with a 53%-29% advantage over Republican Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh. I find it hard to figure that this is anything other than a name ID poll, and so it’s no surprise that a former Lt. Governor would have a large lead over Cavanaugh who has had the lower profile roles of former state GOP chair and gubernatorial adviser.

In polling just the GOP candidates of Cavanaugh, Jack Hornady, and Matt Chancey, 70% of respondents had no expressed preference. The three were close with two barely cracking double digits.

Baxley is the only Democratic candidate for the position.

A reader points out that Don Fisher, an organizer of the previously mentioned Montgomery County GOP event that featured GOP candidates for the Court of Criminal Appeals along with Cavanaugh but no other candidates for PSC President, is also a donor to Cavanaugh’s campaign (pdf).

The Montgomery Co. GOP side of the story heard here is that Cavanaugh was invited to be a featured speaker to the event when she was the only candidate who had qualified for that race, and that later the decision was made to invite the judicial candidates. Other candidates for PSC President were not invited as it was never designed to be a forum for that race.

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• Cavanaugh's Inside Track

In Dothan this morning, 2nd Congressional District candidates attended the last of three debates/forums sponsored by AARP, the National Federation of Independent Business, Troy University, and WSFA-TV. The first one was televised, and State Sen. Harri Anne Smith garnered attention for missing the only televised debate. The last two forums featured questions from the audience.

The word this morning is that as soon as questions from the audience started, Sen. Smith got up and left, saying she had a prior commitment. The legislative session starts up again today, but the Senate begins an hour later than the House. She left Representatives David Grimes and Jay Love sitting there answering questions, leading Grimes to ask, “Why does it take longer for a Senator to get to Montgomery than a House Member?”

Sometimes perception and reality are the same, and sometimes they are not, but the perception that Smith may have to address is that she is ducking public appearances particularly that involve public interaction.

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Update: There is a follow-up to this post here.

The House Republican caucus officially ended its filibuster of HB 350 last week, but several Republicans intend to continue the filibuster, Rep. David Grimes (R - Montgomery) has told the Political Parlor. [Proponents of HB350 say the bill makes multi-state corporations pay the Alabama taxes they have owed since 2001. Opponents claim the bill represents a retroactive tax that attempts to tax companies on past earnings.]

[Thursday,] I pressed my ‘Speak’ button along with several others and Mike Hubbard [R - Auburn] says, ‘What are you doing? The filibuster is over. We want to pass a couple of Jay Love’s bills.’

I said, ‘What? So Jay Love can get some headlines?’ He said, ‘No, it’s not just that. The Governor wants them passed.’

I am not going back on my word [to try to stop HB350]. If it was a bad bill yesterday, it’s a bad bill today.

Sounded like he was suggesting that Hubbard and Riley are trying to help Love win the 2nd Congressional District.

That’s exactly what they are doing. That’s exactly what they are doing. Maybe not Riley so much. But they want to allow a retroactive tax so Love can get some headlines. Love didn’t even write those bills. Someone in the Governor’s office did.

But I’m in good shape. The more they help Love, the more it helps me. Love doesn’t understand the district. It’s a rural district. That’s my people. He’s a city guy. Love was born on pillows. I was born on the ground.

He was getting warmed up.

Listen, did you know that I was instrumental in passing the first middle class tax cut in 70 years? I am going to let people know that I was instrumental in passing the first middle class tax cut in 70 years. Ever heard that before? All of Jay Love’s campaign material has that he was instrumental in passing the first middle class tax cut in 70 years. It was John Knight’s plan. Love voted for it, and so did I. Love’s bills died in committee. He gave Knight’s bill one vote. I gave it one vote. Then I guess I was instrumental in passing the first middle class tax cut in 70 years.

I don’t have to beat everybody in the primary. I just have to beat him to make the run-off with Harri Anne Smith. I’ll be in good shape.

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• Follow-up to Grimes' Comments

Republican Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh is having a Fundraising Reception this evening at the home of Dax Swatek for her candidacy for the Public Service Commission Presidency. If you are interested in seeing who signed on as the Host Committee, here’s the list.

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Related Articles:

• Cavanaugh's Inside Track
• Cavanaugh Throws Hat into Ring for PSC Presidency
• Baxley Clearing Dems from PSC Prez Race