Doc's Political Parlor » AL Judicial Branch

Alabama Line Considers Legislature, Supreme Court

Danny — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 17:03:06 +0000

I don’t know that the Alabama Line will tackle the task of handicapping each state legislative race, and the three Supreme Court races haven’t firmed up enough that it would yet be practical to handicap them individually either. However, undaunted, the Alabama Line is willing to consider the odds of a Republican takeover in each house along with the odds of each party sweeping the Supreme Court races.

And that’s what we do today in the Alabama Line.

I am grateful for all the generous folks who offered their candid assessments for the Alabama Line. We’ll adjust it as time goes by and conditions change.

Bringing Back the Alabama Line – Updated

Danny — Fri, 04 Dec 2009 15:35:32 +0000

Originally posted Dec. 4
AG added Dec. 7
SoS, Treasurer, Auditor, PSC, Agriculture added Dec. 8
DC races added Dec. 9

What are the odds that your favorite candidate will be elected to state office in November 2010? Are you watching a longshot and wondering what his chances are? Many thanks to the elected officials, the party insiders, and the well-connected on both sides of the aisle who offer the Political Parlor their collective take on what the odds are of various candidates and potential candidates being elected.

Governor
(R) Bradley Byrne (2:1)
Favorite of the state’s GOP establishment is still the one to beat.
(D) Artur Davis (5:2)
Has strong believers and nay-sayers. Running aggressive race thus far.
(R) Tim James (6:1)
Rapidly becoming Byrne’s most serious challenger.
(D) Ron Sparks (9:1)
Strong candidate on paper but rumors of money woes persist.
(R) Kay Ivey (19:1)
Statewide official, only woman, but is PACT mess too much to overcome?
(R) Roy Moore (30:1)
Is his committed base large enough to move him into a primary runoff?
(R) Robert Bentley (>99:1)
Dark horse has impressed but has much ground to make up.
(R) Bill Johnson (>99:1)
Is this flame thrower running to win or just settle scores?
(R) James Potts (>99:1)
In America, they say anyone can grow up to be President, not Governor.

Lt. Governor
(D) Jim Folsom (1:4)
Incumbent and one of the biggest names in state politics remains favorite.
(R) Hank Erwin (5:1)
If Folsom has vulnerability, it’s probably not to this challenger.
(R) Gene Ponder (49:1)
Have to admire (not necessarily vote for) those believing in themselves.

Attorney General
(R) Luther Strange (2:1)
Strong chance in general if he can oust incumbent in primary.
(R) Troy King (5:2)
The most controversial incumbent has strong base & can’t be counted out.
(D) Giles Perkins (5:2)
Well-connected and may corral lion’s share of Dem resources for race.
(D) Michel Nicrosi (7:1)
Solid candidate on paper. Is she ready for battle?

Secretary of State
(R) Beth Chapman (1:4)
Incumbent is going to be tough to unseat.
(D) Ed Packard (9:1)
Who will Dems field? Packard may have interest, but faces tough task.
(D) Nancy Worley (39:1)
Would love to run and reclaim seat if she can overcome troubles.

State Treasurer
(R) George Wallace, Jr. (4:3)
He’ll have the critical name ID advantage in bid to reclaim the seat.
(D) Charley Grimsley (2:1)
Well-connected insider likely to have Dem leg up in lean fundraising year.
(R) Young Boozer (9:1)
Wallace has his detractors who may be looking for their own candidate.
(D) Jeremy Sherer (16:1)
Running aggressive, energetic campaign. Will it be enough?
(R) Terry Dunn (27:1)
Unlikely to be room in this race for long-shots to pull off a surprise.
(R) Ronald Stokes (40:1)
Ditto.

State Auditor
(R) Sam Shaw (1:4)
Is anyone making noise about challenging this incumbent?

Public Service Commission, Pl. 1
(D) Jan Cook (2:3)
Election after election, she rolls along. May have vulnerability though.
(R) Chip Beeker (4:1)
What challenger will bring his A game to this race?
(R) Stephen Evans (4:1)
See Chip Beeker.

Public Service Commission, Pl. 2
(D) Susan Parker (1:2)
Should be safer of two PSC incumbents.
(R) Chip Brown (3:1)
Has uphill battle against strong and respected incumbent.

Agriculture Commissioner
(R) Dorman Grace (2:1)
First-time candidate rumored to have critical ALFA backing.
(R) John McMillan (2:1)
Experienced, connected, but expect tough primary challenge.
(D) Glen Zorn (2:1)
Strong GOP nominee will make it tough to keep a Dem in this seat.
(D) Tony Frazier (32:1)
Unable to match Zorn in connections, and probably votes too.
(R) Dale Peterson (>99:1)
Longshot has not one but two very tough primary opponents.

U.S. Senate
(R) Richard Shelby (1:24)
Massive warchest, little vulnerability. No drama here.

1st Congressional District
(R) Jo Bonner (1:5)
Hard to imagine what would have to happen for him to lose.
(R) Peter Gounares (>99:1)
Fish gotta swim, birds gotta fly. Longshots gotta run. Heaven knows they try.
(R) Clint Moser (>99:1)
See Peter Gounares.

2nd Congressional District
(D) Bobby Bright (2:3)
Blue Dog has done everything he can to inoculate himself. Is it enough?
(R) Martha Roby (2:1)
Even some Repubs wonder if she is the one to take seat back for GOP.
(R) Bill Harris (13:1)
Former state GOP Exec. Director is looking for his re-entry into state politics.
(R) Rick Barber (70:1)
Tea party activist new on state political scene faces uphill climb.
(I) Rob John(>99:1)
When has an Independent won election in Alabama to seat this big?

3rd Congressional District
(R) Mike Rogers (1:4)
Tougher district than most, but ‘08 might’ve been his real challenge.
(D) Josh Segall (4:1)
What can he bring to rematch that will put him over the top?
(I) Mark Layfield(>99:1)
When has an Independent won election in Alabama to seat this big?

4th Congressional District
(R) Robert Aderholt (1:5)
A strong Democratic challenger could give him a run. Will one emerge?

5th Congressional District
(D) Parker Griffith (2:3)
Blue dog’s district is more favorable than Bright’s. Tougher competition.
(R) Mo Brooks (2:1)
Will a 2010 GOP wave hand this seat to the Republicans?
(R) Les Phillip (16:1)
Unlikely to derail more well-known primary challenger.

6th Congressional District
(R) Spencer Bachus (1:6)
Will a Democrat even show up on the ballot for this race?
(R) Stan Cooke (>99:1)
When you gotta run, you gotta run.
(R) Paul Lambert (>99:1)
Ditto.

7th Congressional District
(D) Terri Sewell (5:3)
Can she maintain huge fundraising lead and swamp the competition?
(D) Earl Hilliard, Jr (2:1)
Good name ID and family connections. Needs to show he can raise money.
(D) Sheila Smoot (5:1)
Best name ID in the race. Is she tainted by association with JeffCo problems?
(D) James Perkins (12:1)
Strong Black Belt candidate, but most voters are in Birmingham.
(D) Martha Bozeman (33:1)
Hard to find a place among better funded & more well-known candidates.
(D) Patricia Evans Mokolo (>99:1)
Political unknown has a tough row to hoe in crowded field.
(D) Eddison Walters (>99:1)
Hard to imagine he will make a splash in this crowded field.

State Senate
Democrats Hold Majority (1:3)
Most, not all, observers believe GOP has better takeover chance in House.
Republican Takeover (3:1)
When you count noses and look at districts, hard to see obvious path.

State House
Democrats Hold Majority (3:4)
Party switchers in either chamber could change #’s in favor of the GOP.
Republican Takeover (4:3)
GOP fundraising may surprise Dems in otherwise lean economy.

3 Supreme Court Races
Republican Sweep (3:4)
Supreme Court has been Republican stronghold for years now.
Democratic Sweep (>99:1)
Trial lawyers might have resources to put one race, probably not two, in play.

More Take Notice of Supreme Court Speed Report

Danny — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:03:21 +0000

Lagniappe (out of Mobile) this week picks up on the Supreme Court report on the disparities among the justices’ …um… working tempos that we had here last month.

Lagniappe adds comments from Court Clerk Robert Esdale:

Court Clerk Robert Esdale said the length of time in disposing of cases has become an issue for the court and for Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb. He said he believes she has spoken with the other justices about their pace in rendering decisions.

“Of course (it’s a problem),” Esdale explained. “When you have an aspirational target of 290 days and one justice has an average of over 400 days, it slows things down.”

Lagniappe observes that Tom Parker takes about four times longer to dispose of cases than the average time of Justices Sue Bell Cobb, Champ Lyons, Greg Shaw, Patricia Smith, Lyn Stuart, and Tom Woodall.

According to the report, Parker takes an average of 217 days on decisions involving certiorari petitions — review of a lower court’s cases — and an average of 534 days to render original decisions after being assigned a case. By way of comparison, Justices Cobb, Champ Lyons, Woodall, Lyn Stuart, Patricia Smith and Greg Shaw together average 56 days on certiorari petitions and 129 days on original decisions. In other words, Parker’s certiorari time is 161 days longer and 405 days longer for original decisions. That is 388 percent and 414 percent longer respectively.

I think it fair to say that the frustration level in the Supreme Court has been remarkably high for us to see cases (and staff) taken from one justice (to be assigned to others) and for us to hear public comments like Esdale’s.

See some of the numbers and a link to the report itself in last month’s Parlor post. We also had a similar report in May 2008.

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Kelli Wise Seeks Supreme Court Seat

Danny — Mon, 19 Oct 2009 21:18:16 +0000

Associated Press reports that Criminal Appeals Court Judge Kelli Wise has made it official: she’s running as a Republican for the Supreme Court seat being vacated by Patti Smith.

You can keep up with which candidates have announced and which ones are rumored at the 2010 Big List.

Related Articles:

Interest [...]

Look at the Supreme Court Numbers

Danny — Fri, 09 Oct 2009 18:35:08 +0000

Kudos to the state Supreme Court for transparency.

About 16 months ago I wrote here about my request of the state Supreme Court for “records showing the number of cases pending, the average number of days that cases have been pending, and the average number of days between assignment and disposition, for each Justice on the Alabama Supreme Court” and the Court’s response.

This year the Supreme Court took the initiative and yesterday released the updated data. You may see the .pdf file here on the Supreme Court website.

The first thing to jump out to me in a brief scan is the wide range of numbers in Table 4, “Average number of days between the assignment of cases and the release of decisions.”

Cobb, C.J.
Certiorari petitions
Original decisions

Table IV. Average number of days between the assignment of cases and the release of decisions.
	09/30/2005	09/30/2006	09/30/2007	09/30/2008	09/30/2009
n/a n/a	n/a n/a	54 164	62 200	57 156
Lyons, J. Certiorari petitions Original decisions	34 74	39 96	36 76	38 81	42 92
Woodall, J. Certiorari petitions Original decisions	33 64	40 70	35 84	45 85	38 85
Stuart, J. Certiorari petitions Original decisions	34 90	35 82	34 94	38 80	39 92
Smith, J. Certiorari petitions Original decisions	96 185	130 300	84 286	111 289	82 217
Bolin, J. Certiorari petitions Original decisions	69 121	69 308	84 371	108 344	96 259
Parker, J. Certiorari petitions Original decisions	127 0	209 355	176 347	231 439	217 534
Murdock, J. Certiorari petitions Original decisions	n/a n/a	n/a n/a	69 197	97 315	141 362
Shaw, J. Certiorari petitions Original decisions	n/a n/a	n/a n/a	n/a n/a	n/a n/a	80 134
Division Staff Certiorari petitions Original decisions	n/a n/a	n/a n/a	n/a n/a	n/a n/a	68 86
Average For The Court Certiorari petitions Original decisions	65 125	82 168	76 170	91 215	78 199

The second footnote under Table II reads, “In September 2008 Justice Parker, in order to deal with a substantial backlog of cases assigned to him, agreed to the transfer of responsibility for disposition of his oldest cases to the Chief Justice and the two most Senior Associate Justices who would supervise two staff attorneys. In order to make funds available for the employment of such staff attorneys, Justice Parker also agreed to a reduction of his staff to a judicial assistant and one staff attorney.”

Even when Parker had two staff attorneys (before Sept. 2008), you can see that he was taking twice as long as the Court average to produce decisions. I also hear that Parker’s last remaining staff attorney quit this week.

What do you glean from the data?

Related Articles:

Peek Inside the Supreme Court Numbers

Interest in Supreme Court Races Picking Up

Danny — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 17:58:28 +0000

Chatter is picking up regarding the Supreme Court races… Here’s an update along with the basics for any latecomers…

We have three seats up in 2010, all held by Republicans. Patti Smith has announced that she is not running again. The other two are held by Mike Bolin and Tom Parker. You can see where keep up with the latest on these and other races at the 2010 Big List.

Democrats Deborah Bell Paseur and Sharon Yates are not showing interest in Supreme Court races, I’m told, so I have removed them for the Big List for now. Democrat Mac Parsons has told his circle that he will run against Republican incumbent Tom Parker, but so far he has not publicly announced which Supreme Court race he will enter. Democratic attorney Rhonda Chambers has also made known her interest in running against Parker.

Republican Kelli Wise on the Court of Criminal Appeals has declared her intention to run for the open seat. Former State Bar Association President Doug McElvy, also Republican, is said to be interested as well.

We hear that Gadsden Circuit Judge Clark Hall, a Democrat, is interested in running against Bolin or for the open seat. Montgomery attorney James Anderson has also been mentioned a Democratic candidate, though he has been mentioned as a candidate for the AG spot and for the state House as well.

One email correspondent tells the Parlor,

The powers that be want Anderson to run against Parker and are trying to convince Rhonda Chambers to run against Wise, instead of against Parker. If Chambers will change races, and no other Democrat enters the race, Anderson is going to run against Parker.

Not sure where that leaves Parsons. Anderson ran for the Supreme Court in 2002 against Harold See. And he seems to be exploring many options for 2010.

Tom Parker looks vulnerable. Several have noted to the Parlor that some of the interest groups most interested in the outcomes of the Supreme Court races are not interested in supporting Parker. Trial lawyers helped him in 2004 against incumbent Jean Brown, but they appear to be looking elsewhere in 2010. The Business Council of Alabama often backs Republicans in Supreme Court races but several readers have indicated to the Parlor that the BCA is not going to back Parker.

One lawyer reader told the Parlor that the Business Council of Alabama has talked to former U.S. Attorney Alice Martin about running in the primary against Tom Parker:

As for Alice Martin, this is like the maneuvers between the sexes for a high school dance. In this case, BCA (who strongly backed Jean Brown for re-election in this race in 2004) wants a more sympathetic justice. Alice Martin wants a high-profile job. I don’t know who initiated contact first. Probably a friend of one passed a note to a friend of the other during study hall. At this point, talk is cheap. Alice Martin may ultimately run for this seat, or the open (Patti Smith) S. Ct. seat, or nothing. However, Martin and BCA’s people are now speaking directly with each other.

We do our best to keep up with it all on the 2010 Big List. Let us know what you are hearing.

Updates to Big List, Senate & House Campaign Lists

Danny — Tue, 15 Sep 2009 15:15:07 +0000

Ok… so the 2010 Big List, House elections directory, and Senate elections directory have received overdue updates. You can ferret out the changes yourself, but I’ll call a few points to your attention.

On the 2010 Big List, I took out some of the names that were long ago mentioned as possible candidates but that never moved out of the rumor stage, like Mike Dow for Governor or Del Marsh for Lt. Governor.
I added the Supreme Court races to the 2010 Big List.
With the announcement of Bill Dukes’ retirement, the Political Parlor Braintrust™ moved the HD 8 seat from “Safe Dem” to “Lean GOP.”
Upon further review, the original call on HD 9 has been overturned. The seat held by Democrat Ron Grantland has been moved from “Lean Dem” to “Toss-up.”
Numerous names have have been added to the lists. A few have been removed.

Do let me know what changes should be made.

Two who are running, one who is not

Danny — Wed, 26 Aug 2009 18:26:50 +0000

George Wallace, Jr. is expected to announce that he will run for the Republican nomination for state Treasurer to succeed Kay Ivey in the role. (Sorry, Terry Dunn.)

Circuit Judge Mac Parsons tells those around him that the Democrat is going to run for Republican Tom Parker’s seat on the Supreme Court. Win or lose, his campaign should be worth watching.

We’ve been hearing rumors that state Sen. Roger Bedford (D – Russellville) is going to run for Attorney General. Nope, he tells the Parlor definitively he is not running for AG. “My plans are to continue to serve the people of northwest Alabama as their Senator if they will continue to have me.”

Considering the Open State Supreme Court Seat

Danny — Mon, 27 Jul 2009 20:27:43 +0000

What we have been hearing for a couple of months is now official: Supreme Court Justice Patti Smith will not run for re-election.

We know Republican Kelli Wise intends to run from her seat on the Court of Criminal Appeals. It’s easy to imagine that Democrat Deborah Bell Paseur will jump in. Paseur’s name had been mentioned for the vacant legislative seats in the Florence area, but indications are that she prefers to stay in the judicial branch. Paseur lost a Supreme Court race to Republican Greg Shaw in 2008.

Other possibilities for this race?

Cobb’s Decision Still in the Air

Danny — Thu, 28 May 2009 15:05:48 +0000

Decision in process… Please wait…

Democratic Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb put out a release this morning.

Her intention regarding the 2010 governor’s race has been a matter of intense speculation especially among Democrats, many of whom do not want her to give up her role on the Supreme Court to run for this race. She would have to resign as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, and Republican Gov. Bob Riley would replace the only Democrat on Alabama’s appellate courts with his appointee.

While many Democrats wish she would not run, one of her biggest cheerleaders encouraging her to run is said to be her husband. I have heard no one say that poll #’s from any source make her look especially competitive against Democrat Artur Davis. (Celinda Lake is handling Cobb’s polling.)

Word circulated over the weekend that she had made up her mind and was alerting those closest to her. Voice mail, text messages, and email were repeatedly asking others if they had heard Cobb’s decision.

Short version of the release: hasn’t made up her mind.

***FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

May 28, 2009

Statement from Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb Regarding the 2010 Governor’s Race

In the past month, I have been torn between those who encourage me to run for Governor, and those who want me to continue my work as Chief Justice. At this point, I’m not ready to make a decision, and it is too important, not only for my family and me, but more significantly for the State I serve, to make it in haste.

As Chief Justice, it is my job to manage and oversee the court system of Alabama. I am responsible for 2600 employees, and have the opportunity to make necessary reforms to areas that are critical for our future, like juvenile justice. The legal system of Alabama has been my home for nearly 30 years. It would be hard to leave that home, and its future is more important than my own.

As governor, however, I could do even more to help Alabama’s children, by working to end child abuse and neglect and to change the priorities in Montgomery so that we focus on creating jobs and improving our schools. Right now, I am not certain that the needs of the next generation always come before concerns of the next election. I am interested in the answers to two questions. Unfortunately, I have yet to hear them even asked by any candidate: “What strengths do we have today?” and “What do we want Alabama to become tomorrow?”

The next Governor must seek those answers, while facing a tough economy, shrinking budgets and a political atmosphere in Montgomery that doesn’t exactly breed compromise. It will require putting service to the people ahead of allegiance to one Party or to the interest groups that fund political campaigns. Easier said than done, I know. But it is more critical right now than perhaps at any time in our State’s history.

I am convinced that I have the knowledge, the experience and the leadership abilities to do a good job as governor. I also know that the application process can be very tough. Alabama politics is not for the faint of heart. Running a campaign, even a winning campaign, means losing cherished time with the people I love. So as I go forward with this decision, my eyes are open, even if my heart remains unsettled.

I will seek advice from people throughout Alabama, continue family discussions about our future, and look for the wisdom that comes only from quiet prayer. As the situation changes, I will also provide updates on where I am in this process.

May God bless all the candidates for public office, Democrats and Republicans.

-XXX-

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Another State Supreme Court Open Seat – in 2012

Danny — Tue, 26 May 2009 18:54:22 +0000

What was supposed to be a very interesting story in this spot turned out to be a very ordinary story about Supreme Court Justice Champ Lyons being too old to run for re-election when his seat comes up for re-election in 2012.

Perhaps I’ll delete this non-story at some point, but I did want to attempt to clear up any confusion I may have inadvertently created.

Thanks to the readers in comments who set us straight. Carry on.

Main Expected in Court – Updated

Danny — Fri, 08 May 2009 12:59:32 +0000

State Finance Director Jim Main is expected to be appointed as a Judge on the Court of Criminal Appeals today, according to a source in-the-know. The position became open when Greg Shaw was elected to the state Supreme Court last November.

Gov. Bob Riley has wanted Main to fill the spot but also wanted his trusted Finance Director on hand as the budgets made their way through the legislative session. Now that both budgets have passed the legislature, Riley can appoint his first choice to the long empty spot.

Update: In addition to this Associated Press story that confirms Main’s appointment, indirect word out of the Governor’s office is that Bill Newton will be the acting Finance Director. Main’s appointment becomes effective May 15.

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Considering the Court of Criminal Appeals

Sue Bell Cobb: Will She or Won’t She?

Danny — Mon, 04 May 2009 17:46:39 +0000

Those close to Sue Bell Cobb suggest to the Parlor that we shouldn’t expect a formal announcement on the Chief Justice’s intentions about running for the Democratic nomination for Governor until June.

Decision in process… Please wait…

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On Cobb, Judges, and Non-Judicial Races

Danny — Tue, 28 Apr 2009 12:51:42 +0000

Because a judge in Alabama has to resign to become a candidate in a non-judicial race, many doubt that Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb would actually become a candidate for governor.

A lawyer has told me that when then-Chief Justice Roy Moore was considering a run for governor, there was a suggestion that the case could be made that Moore would not have to resign because the Alabama Constitution defines the Governor as a “chief magistrate.” The stretch argument is that Governor, as chief magistrate, is a judicial position, and a judge would not have to resign to run for it. The argument was not tested, and I have heard no one assert strongly that it would hold up.

FWIW, while it is generally understood that Cobb would have to resign to run for Governor, there was a little chatter at the end of last week that a Senate bill might drop this week that would be intended to clarify any legal ambiguities on the matter.

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Chief Justice Cobb Considering Governor’s Race

Danny — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:32:43 +0000

I have heard a surprising rumor from three disparate sources: Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb is considering entering the 2010 race for governor. Supposedly AEA chief Paul Hubbert is trying to convince Cobb to jump into the Democratic field.

I also hear that those closest to her don’t necessarily think this is a good idea, but that she is interested enough to consider having some polling done on her viability.

A major reason this looks like a bad idea from this perspective is that she would have to resign her position at the Supreme Court to run for governor. There are no guarantees that she would win the nomination, let alone the general election. Would you give up one for only a chance at the other? A bird in the hand, and all that…

A yellow dog Democrat told the Parlor that there is little doubt that Cobb has aspirations for higher office and that she is considering the “things that make Roger Bedford, for God’s sake, think he has a chance to win,” for example, “the GOP is not showing a great candidate.”

She probably enjoys that people are talking about her as a potential candidate, he said, and added, “It really doesn’t make sense. Not only does it have the potential to do bad things [on the Democratic side of the race], it could end her future political career.”

My first inclination is to put it in with the Lilly Ledbetter for Congress rumors. It has a certain appeal, it’s fun to talk about, but ultimately just feels so unlikely to happen.