Alabama Politics in
Doc’s Political Parlor
& Home of Lawn Mower Repair

May 28, 2009

Cobb’s Decision Still in the Air

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Executive Branch, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 10:05 am
Decision in process… Please wait…
Progress Bar showing 30% completion

Democratic Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb put out a release this morning.

Her intention regarding the 2010 governor’s race has been a matter of intense speculation especially among Democrats, many of whom do not want her to give up her role on the Supreme Court to run for this race. She would have to resign as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, and Republican Gov. Bob Riley would replace the only Democrat on Alabama’s appellate courts with his appointee.

While many Democrats wish she would not run, one of her biggest cheerleaders encouraging her to run is said to be her husband. I have heard no one say that poll #’s from any source make her look especially competitive against Democrat Artur Davis. (Celinda Lake is handling Cobb’s polling.)

Word circulated over the weekend that she had made up her mind and was alerting those closest to her. Voice mail, text messages, and email were repeatedly asking others if they had heard Cobb’s decision.

Short version of the release: hasn’t made up her mind.

(more…)

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May 26, 2009

Another State Supreme Court Open Seat - in 2012

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 1:54 pm

What was supposed to be a very interesting story in this spot turned out to be a very ordinary story about Supreme Court Justice Champ Lyons being too old to run for re-election when his seat comes up for re-election in 2012.

Perhaps I’ll delete this non-story at some point, but I did want to attempt to clear up any confusion I may have inadvertently created.

Thanks to the readers in comments who set us straight. Carry on.

May 8, 2009

Main Expected in Court - Updated

Filed under: AL Executive Branch, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 7:59 am

Jim MainState Finance Director Jim Main is expected to be appointed as a Judge on the Court of Criminal Appeals today, according to a source in-the-know. The position became open when Greg Shaw was elected to the state Supreme Court last November.

Gov. Bob Riley has wanted Main to fill the spot but also wanted his trusted Finance Director on hand as the budgets made their way through the legislative session. Now that both budgets have passed the legislature, Riley can appoint his first choice to the long empty spot.

Update: In addition to this Associated Press story that confirms Main’s appointment, indirect word out of the Governor’s office is that Bill Newton will be the acting Finance Director. Main’s appointment becomes effective May 15.

Related Articles:

May 4, 2009

Sue Bell Cobb: Will She or Won’t She?

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Executive Branch, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 12:46 pm

Those close to Sue Bell Cobb suggest to the Parlor that we shouldn’t expect a formal announcement on the Chief Justice’s intentions about running for the Democratic nomination for Governor until June.

Decision in process… Please wait…
Progress Bar showing 30% completion

Related Articles:

April 28, 2009

On Cobb, Judges, and Non-Judicial Races

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Executive Branch, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 7:51 am

Seal of the United Judicial System of AlabamaBecause a judge in Alabama has to resign to become a candidate in a non-judicial race, many doubt that Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb would actually become a candidate for governor.

A lawyer has told me that when then-Chief Justice Roy Moore was considering a run for governor, there was a suggestion that the case could be made that Moore would not have to resign because the Alabama Constitution defines the Governor as a “chief magistrate.” The stretch argument is that Governor, as chief magistrate, is a judicial position, and a judge would not have to resign to run for it. The argument was not tested, and I have heard no one assert strongly that it would hold up.

FWIW, while it is generally understood that Cobb would have to resign to run for Governor, there was a little chatter at the end of last week that a Senate bill might drop this week that would be intended to clarify any legal ambiguities on the matter.

Related Articles:

April 22, 2009

Chief Justice Cobb Considering Governor’s Race

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Executive Branch, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 9:32 am

Sue Bell CobbI have heard a surprising rumor from three disparate sources: Alabama Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb is considering entering the 2010 race for governor. Supposedly AEA chief Paul Hubbert is trying to convince Cobb to jump into the Democratic field.

I also hear that those closest to her don’t necessarily think this is a good idea, but that she is interested enough to consider having some polling done on her viability.

A major reason this looks like a bad idea from this perspective is that she would have to resign her position at the Supreme Court to run for governor. There are no guarantees that she would win the nomination, let alone the general election. Would you give up one for only a chance at the other? A bird in the hand, and all that…

A yellow dog Democrat told the Parlor that there is little doubt that Cobb has aspirations for higher office and that she is considering the “things that make Roger Bedford, for God’s sake, think he has a chance to win,” for example, “the GOP is not showing a great candidate.”

She probably enjoys that people are talking about her as a potential candidate, he said, and added, “It really doesn’t make sense. Not only does it have the potential to do bad things [on the Democratic side of the race], it could end her future political career.”

My first inclination is to put it in with the Lilly Ledbetter for Congress rumors. It has a certain appeal, it’s fun to talk about, but ultimately just feels so unlikely to happen.

April 16, 2009

Governor and AG Duel in Supreme Court

Filed under: AL Executive Branch, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 11:07 am

Elephants butting headsGovernor Bob Riley and his Attorney General Troy King are taking their differences to the state’s highest court.

King wants to convince the Supreme Court that the governor has no authority to make the head of his [gambling] task force, David Barber, an assistant attorney general. King says only he has the power to do that.

Governor Riley’s office responded saying, “If the attorney general doesn’t enforce the law, then who will if not the governor?”

Two constitutional officers butting heads against each other in the state Supreme Court? Now there’s a spectacle.

Would King’s 2010 re-election effort feel the aftershock if he ends up on the losing side here? Or is it simply fodder for the campaign? “Fighting to the highest courts for his beliefs…”

Related Articles:

February 27, 2009

Moore on the Way?

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Executive Branch, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 11:23 am

Roy MooreWorld Net Daily columnist (and former Chief Justice of the Alabama Supreme Court) Roy Moore leads potential gubernatorial candidates in a poll conducted by ccAdvertising. The poll “shows Moore is far ahead of most of the likely competition.” According to the poll, in head to head matchups Moore leads Kay Ivey 50% to 14%, Tim James 52-16, and Artur Davis 52-27.

ccAdvertising is a group known for working with right wing causes and candidates such as presidential contenders Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Romney later complained that ccAdvertising, working for Common Sense Issues, was violating the law with its phone calls on behalf of Huckabee during the presidential campaign. ccAdvertising has been on the losing end of two federal court decisions and was once fined $20,000 for violations in North Dakota.

Harold Swift of Common Sense Ohio was once asked if critics thought that the polling done for them by ccAdvertising was deceptive and replied, “I grant that they can reach that conclusion.”


One Montgomery Republican told the Parlor that while there are those trying to drum up support on behalf of Moore’s run for governor in 2010 (Dean Young, for example), they are not finding the support for the Ten Commandments Judge that they did before. Some big Moore supporters from the past are uninterested, and some are supporting GOP candidate Tim James. This particular GOP’er says that big Moore supporters from the past are “not jumping out there” at the opportunity to support Moore’s candidacy again, and can’t help but wonder if Moore is trying to raise his profile in the political arena because his speaking engagements are drying up.

Is that why he filed an amicus brief on behalf of the Etowah Baptist Association in its case before the Alabama Supreme Court? Once a rock star in conservative religious circles, Moore’s stock has fallen to the point that the Parlor hears that the amicus brief was not entirely welcome. (The question posed to me: “Would you want someone removed from the Supreme Court with you when you take your case to the Supreme Court?”)


But still, he leads the field in one poll by ccAdvertising.

Related Articles:

January 21, 2009

Federal judge UW Clemon makes it official

Filed under: Misc. AL Politics, AL Judicial Branch — waltm @ 3:14 pm

According to the Birmingham News, he has turned in his resignation to President Obama to enter private practice. This was not unexpected.

On the advisory committe website setup by Congressman Davis, there are sixteen applicants so far and a eleven name list held by the state Democratic party. Both lists overlap.

The negotiations over who gets the nod should be interesting.

January 6, 2009

Thinking Aloud

Filed under: AL Executive Branch, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 9:47 am

Given that many observers expect state Finance Director Jim Main to be a leading candidate (or the leading candidate) to replace Judge Greg Shaw on the Court of Criminal Appeals, given that Governor Riley has a penchant of filling positions by promoting from among those close to him, and given that the expected upcoming budget crunch might amplify Riley’s desire to have someone in the Finance position with whom he has a strong and existing working relationship, was Twinkle Cavanaugh named to her position in the Finance Department at the 11th hour just before the hiring freeze was enacted with an eye toward making her Jim Main’s successor?

If so, would the flap over her placement there now make it untenable that she would become the Director? Or do you believe it unlikely that this was even a consideration in her placement there?

Related Articles:

January 5, 2009

Considering the Court of Criminal Appeals

Filed under: AL Judicial Branch — Chauncey Sparks @ 1:21 pm

The 2008 election cycle saw more action than recent presidential election years, including three legitimately competitive congressional elections for the first time in a decade, as well as razor close margins in the Supreme Court and PSC races. Most of the political activity in 2009 will consist of posturing with an eye toward the 2010 elections. However, there will be a few sideshows to give political junkies their fix in 2009.

The earliest will be the filling of the vacancy on the Court of Criminal Appeals left by Greg Shaw’s ascension to the Supreme Court. Criminal Appeals is not the most glamorous appellate panel, but it is one of a limited number of statewide judicial positions and often a springboard to higher office (just ask Shaw or Chief Justice Cobb).

Bob Riley, alone, will determine who fills the remaining four years of Shaw’s term. Most likely the choice will be made quickly, and it would be wise to keep an eye on the following:

Clockwise from top left - Jim Main, Chris Mixon, Leura Canary, Alice MartinJim Main - The budget director is probably the most influential appointed official in state government, but with Riley now a lame duck Jim Main is probably looking toward his next step. Main wanted to make the jump to elective office in 2008, but his campaign for Supreme Court never made it out of the backrooms, as Greg Shaw was the “chosen one” by the usual suspects of the Republican business lobby. Main’s distant connections to the plaintiff’s bar has always caused BCAs and ALFAs some heartburn but the governor clearly doesn’t share such concerns. Perhaps with a few years on an appellate court under his belt, Main could demonstrate his conservative bonafides and secure backing for a future promotion to the Supreme Court. After passing over Main for Attorney General and Chief Justice appointments already, many believe Riley will give Main first crack at the Shaw vacancy.

Chris Mixon - Mixon’s first exposure to the general public was as a candidate for the Court of Criminal Appeals in 2008. When he entered the race, many viewed Mixon as the candidate of the business wing of the Republican Party and expected such support to carry him to victory. But something funny happened on the way to the coronation. Mary Windom jumped into the race late in the qualifying period and rode her name ID and funding advantage (aided in no small part by her husband) to a strong primary and general election win. The Shaw vacancy provides an opportunity for Mixon (and his backers) to put his judicial career back on track, with only a minor detour. Shy of 40 years of age, Mixon represents a new generation and potentially could help carry the banner of business conservatives on the Criminal Appeals Court and beyond for decades to come. If Main passes or Riley prefers a more forward-looking appointment, expect the emergence of a Judge Mixon.

Leura Canary / Alice Martin - Either U.S. Attorney would be a strong choice on paper and both should be looking for new employment as the Obama era dawns. Both women would of course bring baggage that need not be detailed here, but if he’s willing to stomach a few days of a media firestorm and alienating Canary/Martin critics (mostly but not exclusively on the left) Riley could certainly appoint either with minimal damage to his own administration. Many politicos believe there is a slight gender advantage for female candidates, especially in lower-profile down ballot offices like court races, and with four years under her belt before they face the electorate it wouldn’t be wise to bet against either woman meeting with success at the ballot box. Make no mistake, it is a long shot that either Canary or Martin gets the nod but neither should they be ruled out. With little to lose as he faces a lame duck stage in what he says will be his last elective office, Riley might roll the dice and make the choice he wants - critics be damned.

Obviously, there are many other solid Republicans from which Riley could choose, either from the legislative, judicial, or partisan arenas. The list above is not much more than pure speculation, but any discussion must include (but not be limited to) the names previously mentioned.

Related Articles:

November 17, 2008

Alabama’s Costly Court Contest

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 1:33 pm

Silhouette of Scales of JusticeThe Supreme Court race was won by Republican Greg Shaw after county canvass boards across the state finished counting outstanding ballots on Friday. This nails down the last statewide race in favor of the Republicans who won 6 of 7 of the statewide races. The GOP keeps a hammerlock on the state judiciary: among the judges on the Supreme Court, the Court of Criminal Appeals, and the Court of Civil Appeals, Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb is the lone Democrat.

Associated Press reported that “the candidates and outside groups spent more than $5 million on the race, which may end up the most expensive court race in the U.S. this year.”

Which calls to mind the matter in West Virginia of whether a justice should recuse himself from a case involving a major campaign contributor and that is now going to the U.S. Supreme Court.

November 7, 2008

Cavanaugh Concedes PSC Presidency

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Executive Branch, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 4:39 pm

Associated Press this afternoon:

Republican Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh has conceded to Democrat Lucy Baxley in the tight race for president of the Alabama Public Service Commission.

Paseur wants a full tally. From the same article:

The only other statewide race where there has not been a concession was chief justice [sic] of the Alabama Supreme Court. Republican Greg Shaw led Democrat Deborah Bell Paseur by 12,832 votes or 0.6 percent out of more than 2 million votes cast.

Paseur’s campaign manager, Marion Steinfels, said Friday the candidate is awaiting a final tally on Nov. 25.

You probably already know this, but in case you are just joining us, Paseur and Shaw are actually running for Associate Justice.

November 5, 2008

Election Update

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Executive Branch, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 12:14 pm

Ballot Going into BoxAP has called Democrat Lucy Baxley the winner in the PSC Presidency race over Republican Twinkle Cavanaugh though a recount is still possible. The state Democrats and Baxley are announcing that she will be sworn in today at 2 pm.

AP has called the Supreme Court race in favor of Republican Greg Shaw over Democrat Deborah Bell Paseur, but Paseur’s campaign has not conceded the race.

October 30, 2008

CFIF Ad in Supreme Court Race

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 4:32 pm

The Center for Individual Freedom is running another ad in the Supreme Court race, this one against Democratic candidate Deborah Paseur.

You can see it here in Quicktime (.mov) format.

Screenshot from CFIF ad against Deborah Bell Paseur

Related Articles:

October 28, 2008

Thompson Ad for Court of Civil Appeals

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 2:28 pm

Judge Bill Thompson is running this ad statewide (.wmv) in his re-election campaign for the Court of Civil Appeals, Place 1. He is a Republican running against Democrat Kimberly Drake.

Bill Thompson Ad for Court of Civil Appeals - Screenshot

FYI, you can read Q&A with the candidates here on the WHNT-TV site.

October 22, 2008

Latest Alabama Line

A roundtable of elected officials, political insiders, and the well-connected on both sides of the aisle has weighed in to help us figure what the odds are of various candidates being elected in November. I very much appreciate those who contributed their insights and candor. The results are below.



Alabama Line Flag Alabama
Line

Senate Line

Up Arrow - Red(R) Jeff Sessions (1-99)
Strong incumbent did not get a stiff challenge.
Down Arrow - Blue(D) Vivian Figures (99-1)
If Sessions had vulnerability, it was not to Figures.

AL-2 Line

Down Arrow - Red(R) Jay Love (17-18)
Almost too close to call, but Love looks to have razor-thin edge.
Up Arrow - blue(D) Bobby Bright (18-17)
Turnout could turn this race for Bright.

AL-3 Line

Down Arrow - Red(R) Mike Rogers (1-2)
Race has easily tightened, but the incumbent is still the favorite.
Up Arrow - blue(D) Josh Segall (2-1)
Has run an impressive campaign in race many thought was out of reach for him.

AL-4 Line

(R) Robert Aderholt (1-99)
The incumbent easily wins re-election.
(D) Nick Sparks (>100-1)
At least yellow dogs have an option.

AL-5 Line

Down Arrow - Blue(D) Parker Griffith (13-15)
Took some hits in the campaign but appears to maintain the edge.
Up Arrow - Red(R) Wayne Parker (15-13)
So far does not appear that campaign will capitalize on Griffith controversies.

PSC President Line

Up Arrow - blue(D) Lucy Baxley (9-11)
Former LG’s advantage in name ID looks to be too strong in low profile race.
Down Arrow - Red(R) Twinkle Cavanaugh (11-9)
Haven’t seen the firepower needed to overcome Baxley’s edge.

Supreme Court Line

Down Arrow - Red(R) Greg Shaw (12-13)
This race has tightened considerably.
Up Arrow - blue(D) Deborah Bell Paseur (13-12)
Running a more effective campaign than Shaw.


Related Articles:

October 16, 2008

Bubble, Bubble, Oil and Trouble

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 8:05 am

Many state Democrats take it as an article of faith that oil companies like Exxon Mobil are active in state judicial races on the Republican side. But the campaign of Democratic Supreme Court candidate Deborah Bell Paseur looks guilty of overreaching when it says in this TV spot that “she is the only candidate not backed by the oil companies.”

In this Associated Press story, Phillip Rawls covered the details of how Paseur’s campaign has received contributions from some of the same sources that she claimed represented “oil money” when they contributed to her Republican opponent Greg Shaw.

FGAPAC Expenditure ReportFor example, Paseur’s campaign received a $5000 contribution from Bob Geddie, a lobbyist for Exxon Mobil among other interests. Geddie’s contribution to Shaw’s campaign is a basis for the claim of the Paseur campaign that Shaw is backed by the oil companies.

Paseur’s campaign apparently knew that the Geddie donation was politically sensitive because it asked Geddie to route the contribution through the Democratic Party, presumably so it would not show up in campaign finance reports as a direct contribution from Geddie to Paseur’s campaign. Below you can see the correspondence on this matter between Geddie and Paseur’s campaign.

On the Expenditures report that his FGA PAC files with the Secretary of State, Geddie lists the recipient of that $5000 contribution as “Ala. Democratic Party (Paseur).” The contribution has not shown up in campaign finance reports for Paseur’s campaign, though the campaign acknowledges the contribution in the AP article and says that they will be returning it.

Bob Geddie confirmed to the Parlor that he had authorized the release of these letters (below) after the Paseur ad came out because Exxon Mobil had not contributed anything to his PACs. “For anyone to imply otherwise is simply not true.” Geddie added that “neither one of them [Shaw or Paseur] had received any oil money.”

Geddie referred to the Chief Justice race between Democrat Sue Bell Cob and Republican Drayton Nabors when he said, “A few years ago, a candidate for the Supreme Court implied that Exxon Mobil was the primary contributor of her opponent. As far as I know, Exxon Mobil limits contributions to candidates to $500, they don’t give to PACs that I am aware of, and they don’t give to any judicial candidates that I am aware of.” Geddie clearly didn’t care for Exxon Mobil being the bogeyman of the election.

Why, I wondered, did Geddie take the unusual step of noting Paseur’s name in parentheses when reporting the contribution made to the Alabama Democratic Party? He answered, “I wanted to remind myself that they had asked me to do it,” i.e. that Paseur’s campaign had asked him to send the contribution through the Democratic Party.

Paseur’s campaign will note that Shaw’s campaign has taken much more money from supposedly objectionable sources than Paseur’s did, and that Paseur has since returned the contributions from those sources. This doesn’t change the fact that the claim in the ad, that “she is the only candidate not backed by the oil companies,” didn’t hold up to scrutiny when it went on the air.

And no matter how strongly Democrats believe that oil companies may back Shaw now and other Republicans for the Supreme Court in the past, Alabama campaign and disclosure laws are such that Paseur cannot prove the claim that the oil companies are backing Shaw.

(more…)

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October 15, 2008

3rd Party Ad in Supreme Court Race

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 5:13 pm

The Center for Individual Freedom in Alexandria, Virginia is running this spot on behalf of Republican Greg Shaw. Shaw is running against Democrat Deborah Paseur for a seat on the state Supreme Court.

State Bar intervenes in the Supreme Court Race

Filed under: Campaign & Election, Party Politics, AL Judicial Branch — waltm @ 6:35 am

According to the Times Daily.  To briefly summarize, the the candidates professional association has asked them to meet with a campaign integrity committee with the aim of ratcheting down the rhetoric.

Whether this will mark the day Alabama judicial elections change remains to be seen.  Something to ponder is whether this move inhibits or promotes democracy.

September 18, 2008

Alabama Line Updated

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Judicial Branch, AL and DC — Danny @ 11:27 am

A roundtable of elected officials, political insiders, and the well-connected on both sides of the aisle has weighed in to help us figure what the odds are of various candidates being elected in November. I very much appreciate those who contributed their insights and candor. The results are below.

The Alabama Line has previously looked at 2010 elections. We’ll ease back into that in upcoming updates.



Alabama Line Flag Alabama
Line

Senate Line

(R) Jeff Sessions (1-19)
Strong incumbent did not get a stiff challenge.
(D) Vivian Figures (19-1)
If Sessions had vulnerability, it was not to Figures.

AL-2 Line

(R) Jay Love (12-13)
Looks close. GOPers often boosted in prez election years.
(D) Bobby Bright (13-12)
Montgomery Mayor is Dems’ best shot at the seat in a generation.

AL-3 Line

(R) Mike Rogers (1-4)
Huge warchest and the power of incumbency should send him back to DC.
(D) Josh Segall (4-1)
Strong campaign. 2nd largest black population in any GOP House district.

AL-4 Line

(R) Robert Aderholt (1-99)
Wins in a cakewalk.
(D) Nick Sparks (>100-1)
Maybe another Sparks could make this competitive.

AL-5 Line

(D) Parker Griffith (9-11)
The favorite but will have to outperform the top of the ticket.
(R) Wayne Parker (11-9)
Hopes third time for the seat will be the charm.

PSC President Line

(D) Lucy Baxley (17-18)
Former LG has name ID edge in a race that is a virtual tossup.
(R) Twinkle Cavanaugh (18-17)
Has firepower, and the R gets a boost in prez election year.

Supreme Court Line

(R) Greg Shaw (2-3)
Some contributors felt he should be listed as an even stronger favorite.
(D) Deborah Bell Paseur (3-2)
Roundtable divided on her capacity to surprise.


Related Articles:

September 8, 2008

Ads for Supreme Court Race

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 4:58 pm

We are starting to see some action in the race for the open state Supreme Court seat. Both candidates have 60-second TV ads out.

Democratic nominee Deborah Bell Paseur:


And Republican nominee Greg Shaw. I understand that is Fred Thompson narrating the ad.

August 1, 2008

On the Supreme Court Stay

Filed under: AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 1:02 pm

Are you surprised, that after someone else claimed in a sworn statement this week to be the murderer in the case for which Thomas Arthur was convicted, that four state Supreme Court justices voted against a stay of execution for Arthur?

Birmingham News links are not working right now.

This post has been edited to note correctly Arthur’s name.

July 15, 2008

Today’s Election Results

Ballot Going into BoxBarring a large turnaround at the end of the night’s reporting, it looks like the winners in the various GOP primary runoffs are going to be Jay Love (AL-02), Wayne Parker (AL-05), Twinkle Cavanaugh (PSC President), and Beth Kellum (Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 1). These four all led their fields in the first election also.

Related Articles:

Elections Today

Voter Placing Ballot in BoxThe elections of greatest interest across the state today will be four GOP contests. With turnout expected to be so low, less than 10 percent predicts Secretary of State Beth Chapman, it will be all about getting out your core supporters.

While I haven’t seen anything so compelling to make me predict anything other than that the candidate who led in the first election will win, a win by Guthrie in CD-5 is the one outcome that would surprise me most.

Here are the races with the %’s of votes received in the first election.

  • Jay Love (35%) and Harri Anne Smith (22%), 2nd Congressional District. Winner will face Bobby Bright.
     
  • Cheryl Baswell Guthrie (18%) and Wayne Parker (49%), 5th Congressional District. Winner will face Parker Griffith.
     
  • Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh (47%) and Matt Chancey (29%), Public Service Commission President. Winner will face Lucy Baxley.
     
  • Beth Kellum (34%) and Lucie McLemore (24%), Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 1. Winner will face Clyde Jones.

Really though, with turnout so low, one of these previous 2nd place finishers who has mobilized core supporters to turn out can surprise us.

What outcome would most surprise you?

June 30, 2008

BCA Supreme Endorsement is ‘Painful Decision’

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 3:59 pm

Greg ShawAt the Business Council of Alabama conference this weekend, BCA’s ProgressPAC endorsed Republican Supreme Court candidate Greg Shaw over Democrat Deborah Bell Paseur. Many observers will not be surprised by the endorsement as much as they will be by how difficult the decision-making process was. Both candidates had been endorsed by the BCA for other races. Someone who attended the conference told the Parlor that the endorsement came as a result of “painful conversations, painful decisions.”

The decision was so difficult that the group discussed the idea of not endorsing anyone at all for the race. The discussion was not heated, both candidates were discussed in positive terms, and the decision broke down based on who would take trial lawyer money and who would not, according to the conference attendee. Paseur would not say that she would not take trial lawyer money, and Shaw did say he would not accept money from trial lawyers.

No other races were considered for possible endorsements.

Related Articles:

June 26, 2008

Goff Suit Not Up to Par, All But 1 Count Dismissed

Filed under: AL Executive Branch, AL Judicial Branch — Danny @ 2:39 pm

GavelMontgomery County Circuit Court Judge Truman M. Hobbs Jr. has dismissed 11 of 12 counts of the lawsuit that insurance executive John W. Goff filed against Gov. Bob Riley, former Lt. Gov. Steve Windom, Insurance Commissioner Walter A. Bell and others.

One count against Bell remains.

You may read the judge’s order here (.pdf).

June 23, 2008

Judge Denies AEA’s Effort to Oust Byrne

Filed under: AL Issues, AL Executive Branch, AL Judicial Branch — Helen Hammons @ 4:25 pm

Silhouette of Scales of JusticeBradley Byrne will not be required to give up his position as chancellor of the two-year college system, at least for now. Alabama Education Association-backed individuals filed suit last year claiming Byrne’s appointment as chancellor came about in an “improper, illegal meeting” in violation of the state’s Open Meetings Act and that Byrne’s selection was an “illegal, preconceived selection.”

The two parties had basically stipulated to there being a single issue for the court to resolve and that was “whether the Board’s publicly posted notice with respect to a specially called Board Meeting on May 10, 2007 complied with the requirements of the Open Meetings Act.”

On June 16, 2008, Montgomery Circuit Court Judge Gene Reese issued an order simply saying in part, “The Court concludes the Board complied with the Open Meetings Act and therefore the request for relief is Denied. CASE DISMISSED.”

So far, lawyers for the two-year system have not been advised of the filing of an appeal to challenge the judge’s order. But there’s plenty of time remaining for that to still happen.

Subsequently I have learned, the AEA is still seeking advice from their attorneys as to whether or not to appeal Judge Reese’s order.

Related Articles:

June 13, 2008

Should we still elect our judges?

Filed under: AL Judicial Branch — Lucius @ 10:55 am

Sign on dirt road which reads 'Dirt Road Dispatch'Alabama front porches have always been one of the best places to swap gossip and talk politics. The two topics collided last week when the Alabama Court of the Judiciary entered an Order removing Clark County Circuit Judge Stuart C. Dubose from the bench. I’m sure that news set porch swings in motion as word spread throughout Southwest Alabama. His removal was presaged by a Complaint filed on January 31, 2008, containing sixty allegations of wrongdoing ranging from ex parte communications with another Judge in an action in which Dubose was a party, to requiring local attorneys that had opposed Dubose’s election to sign an endorsement agreeing to support his reelection bid. Unfortunately this is only the most recent incidents of judicial misconduct in Alabama. Last fall, Mobile County Circuit Judge Herman Thomas resigned before being formally removed from the bench by the Court of the Judiciary for his improprieties which included providing preferential treatment to his friends and family. I need not even mention the rumors of “hanky-spanky” that were swirling regarding his actions with inmates from the county jail. Perhaps the most egregious instance of judicial misconduct was the recent conviction of former Pickens County District Judge Ira Colvin for methamphetamine possession in Alabama. This was in addition to his existing conviction and twelve year sentence in Mississippi for possession of ingredients for methamphetamine production. I once spent a few hours in Judge Colvin’s office discussing politics and found him to be extemely cordial and entertaining. I have to wonder now if his conviviality was in part artificially induced. (more…)

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June 3, 2008

Today’s Election Predictions

Filed under: Campaign & Election, AL Executive Branch, AL Judicial Branch, AL and DC — Chauncey Sparks @ 8:37 am

Update: The section below on the races for the Courts of Criminal Appeals has been edited.

Let’s take a quick look at some of today’s races…

AL-02

Republican

This has been the most competitive and expensive race of the primary cycle with four of the Republican candidates spending several hundred thousand dollars, each digging in their own pocket for a large percentage of their overall budget. While this race has had its share of twists and turns, it looks like the primary is ending where it began - with Harri Anne Smith and Jay Love as the favorites. Despite game efforts by David Woods and Craig Schmitdke, it’d be a huge upset if either displaced one of the top two to make the runoff.

Depending on which poll ones looks at, either Smith or Love has the lead. It’ll be interesting to see which candidate comes up on top, but unless there is a lead of high single digits or more, a runoff would begin on a pretty even footing.
Prediction - Smith and Love finish well ahead of the pack but within less than four points of each other, with Schmidtke usurping third place from David Woods.

Democratic

This one won’t be close. It’s hard to imagine Bright being seriously pushed to secure the nomination, but only a fraction of one of the district’s counties has actually ever seen him on the ballot. And opponent Cheryl Sabel is the only Democrat to run television ads, while Bright strategically sitting on his money. I’d peg 60%-65% as the expected Bright range, with anything below that showing considerable weakness that won’t help the mayor begin the general on the right foot.
Prediction - Bright wins by about 2 to 1 over his two lower profile opponents.

AL-05

Republican

Though this has race attracted its share of Republicans, only two candidates have run top-flight, professional campaigns saturating the district with TV ads. Wayne Parker was the establishment favorite all along with Cheryl Baswell Guthrie playing the role of the self-funding insurgent. Guthrie’s fourth quarter ads hitting Parker for his lobbyist background have shaken up the race as local Repbulican figures have condemned Guthrie’s negativity. Doc Mancuso has injected his campaign with over $100K from his own pocket, which should separate him from the also-rans. But it’s hard to imagine any result other than Parker finishing first with Guthrie in second with everyone else in the dust. Which leaves the question: will Wayne Parker secure a majority today or will he be faced with a six week runoff that could grow increasingly negative?
Prediction - Guthrie’s negative ads might not ultimately help her bid for the nomination, but it will be enough to keep Parker under 50% and ensure a runoff.

PSC President

Republican

With one candidate (Hornady) well qualifed, but unable to communicate with voters in any substantive way and one candidate (Chancey) a bomb-throwing outsider with questionable credentials, it’s hard to imagine that Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh won’t be the GOP nominee. But recent polling has indicated that the former GOP Chair and Riley insider is not well known statewide and could struggle to win the nomination outright. Anything less than an outright Twinkle win outright would certainly underwhelm most observers and remind them of her ill-fated 2002 run for State Treasurer when she was unable to even make the runoff in a four way field. Most likely Twinkle wins the nomination tonight and will begin the general election as at least an even money bet in a state where the Republican nominee will provide some significant coattails. But this primary — long though to be a coronation — could provide a significant obstacle (at least in terms of perception) with an underwhelming performance tonight.
Prediction - Twinkle leads the field, but is forced into a runoff with Hornady.

Criminal Appeals

Republican Place 1

An interesting, if low profile, race has developed here with an all female field including three current or former judges. Teresa Petelos has to be considered the favorite given her larger JeffCo base and the prominence of the Petelos name in the area. Though they served together, former Montgomery District Judges Lucie McLemore and Peggy Givhan are now running against each other and perhaps irreparably harming the other’s chances of advancing to a runoff. Both were defeated by Democrats in 2006 and it doesn’t take Dr. Phil to deduce that they aren’t the best of friends. McLemore’s seems to be targeting conservative activists statewide in an attempt to broaden her base. It’s less clear where Givhan’s statewide support come from. But the two Montgomerians might be opening the door for the only candidate without a robe to join Petelos in a runoff. Criminal Appeals staff attorney Beth Kellum is in her second attempt at a statewide court seat after a solid, if unsuccessful run in 2006. Kellum’s been as active on the rubber chicken and country fair circuit as any candidate, and her work could pay off if her statewide network allows her to overtake McLemore and Givhan.
Prediction - Petelos leads comfortably, but will have to face McLemore in a runoff.

Republican Place 2

This race had potential for some fireworks, but it never seemed to develop. In one corner you have a golden boy, Harold See protege (Chris Mixon) and in the other you have the wife of a former Lieutenant Governor and more importantly one of Montgomery’s top lobbyists (Mary Windom). But while the Windoms did what was expected of them and ran a relatively professional campaign with statewide television ads, Mixon’s campaign never seemed to gel. Was Team Windom able to lock down the GOP moneygivers or at least keep them on the sidelines instead of falling in line behind the well-connected Mixon? While there’s no real ideological split here, the mainstream business establishment is used to getting its way in court races. Many expected Mixon to nail down the BCA endorsement and enter the fast track of Alabama politics. The endorsement didn’t happen, and the win doesn’t look likely.
Prediction - Windom wins, narrowly avoiding a runoff.

State Board of Education

Republican, Districts 1 and 3

It’s hard to see how it caught the incumbents by surprise, but GOP State Board incumbents Randy McKinney and Stephanie Bell were caught flat footed when their opponents popped up on TV with slick, professional ads. If the 2006 primaries didn’t teach us anything else, it should have taught us to never take a primary lightly especially if you have powerful and well-heeled political enemies (see Dial, Gerald). While McKinney is better known (due to his recent State Senate loss and his geographically smaller district), Stephanie Bell is in a much more precarious position. Never a household name, Bell’s 3rd District spans several counties and two media markets. Bell is a ripe target for an AEA backed primary opponent. Skip Smithwick didn’t start the race well-known, but his grandfatherly appearance (highlighted in slick TV ads) and hard-hitting negative ads have propelled him into contention. Bell has hit back, both blasting Paul Hubbert and extolling her own accomplishments. We’ll know tonight if Bell’s responses saved her career or if it was too little, too late.
Prediction - After a largely unsuccessful legislative session (budget aside), AEA will knock off one of their chief antagonists in a down-ballot upset with potentially major implications.

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