Folks (like Rollcall, for one) are taking notice that Cheryl Baswell Guthrie announced that her AL-05 campaign raised $200,000 in 30 days. She has pledged to put up to $100,000 of her own money into the campaign, and so it is a bit unclear how much of the $200k might be her own.
If you want an unofficial campaign pin for David Grimes or Harri Anne Smith, your moment has arrived. One of each is available on Ebay. A Smith campaign staffer says the Smith campaign has produced no such pins, and we may safely assume that David Grimes has not either. Note that neither has the usual “Paid for by…” message.
Republican state Senator Harri Anne Smith held two press conferences today, in Dothan at 11 and in Montgomery at 2, to announce that Giles Building and Loan President John Giles had endorsed her candidacy for AL-02.
Giles is more famous for the ten years he headed the Christian Coalition of Alabama, and he served on the staffs of two governors (Hunt and James).
Smith said in a prepared statement that she was “very happy to be receiving a key endorsement today, one I am proud of for a number of reasons.” She added:
First of all, he has always worked to protect the sanctity of life.
Second, he has been my friend in many political battles, fighting against taxes and waste.
And third he has always stood for what is right for Alabama by fighting against the expansion of gambling in our state.
In his endorsement, Giles said that Smith was “unequivocally qualified, electable, and proven, tried and tested on tough issues.”
Edit: All in all, judging from what I have read in email and comments, seems best to strike through this bit below.
“Good Morning Montgomery” on ABC’s Montgomery affiliate announced this morning that Emory Folmar had endorsed Smith. Her campaign would welcome the endorsement but at this writing does not know of any official endorsement from the former Montgomery mayor.
Update: One reader who is more connected than most of us says that Emory Folmar is not endorsing anyone.
Odd… that one outlet would have it and others would not.
Republican Jay Love has a new TV ad for the AL-02 race.
Republican state Senator Harri Anne Smith begins airing her first television ad tonight in her quest to win the race for AL-02.
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MRI has been polling the race for the GOP nomination for the 2nd Congressional District. Confirmed. (MRI does the polling for the Smith campaign.)
Though the campaign did not want to confirm (or deny) the numbers as I have them, I feel confident these are the results of the latest Smith tracking poll.
| Harri Anne Smith | 21% |
| Jay Love | 16% |
| David Woods | 15% |
| Craig Schmidtke | 9% |
| David Grimes | 4% |
Other candidates did not register.
The polling was done after Smith skipped the television debate and fumbled the Country Crossing issue. We can probably agree that those episodes didn’t register in the minds of most voters though many people here certainly took note. In an early poll in October before the field was settled, Smith was at 24%.
If we continue to look at this as Wiregrass vs. the Montgomery area, then it looks like Love and Woods are scrambling to make the run-off as the Montgomery candidate against Smith. If Smith slips so much that two Montgomery candidates are in a run-off for the nomination, that will be quite a story.
FWIW, I am a bit surprised that newcomer Schmidtke is as high as he is.
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The conventional wisdom on the Republican side of the 2nd Congressional Race is that there are too many viable candidates for anyone to receive a majority of the vote in the June 3rd primary. So with two tickets out of the primary, it’s pretty clear that the regional split between the Wiregrass and Montgomery metro area will result in a Republican from each end of the district in the runoff. With Harri Anne Smith perceived to have coalesced the Dothan/Wiregrass area behind her campaign, all that’s left will be to see which Republican comes out of Montgomery.
The early money was on Jay Love. The former Subway shop owner and state representative has the right profile for a GOP primary, implicit backing of the Montgomery GOP establishment including the Governor, and the ability to inject his own money into the campaign. However, somewhere along the road to the Love coronation, the parade has gotten a little off track. Fellow Montgomery State Rep. David Grimes was thought by many to be unlikely to actually make the ballot. Grimes will likely be outspent heavily by most of his opponents, but as a popular local Montgomery official any vote he gets will come off of Love.
But the biggest hurdle to Love’s path to the runoff is David Woods. When the TV mogul declared for the race, many expected his to follow the same ill-fated path as his war hero father’s political career. But Woods not only looks to be able to match Love dollar for dollar from his own pocket, but actually outraised Love in the 1st Quarter this year. Love’s inability to show the fundraising pop expected of a frontrunner, has opened the door for a challenge in his own backyard. If Woods is able to achieve a rough parity with Love in the Montgomery area, the Woods’ family roots in the Wiregrass might steal enough votes to thrust Woods into the runoff with Harri Anne Smith.
By no means should Love be counted out. He’s still the lead horse on the Montgomery side of the GOP race. But his path to victory seems to be growing more difficult and it no longer seems inconceivable his bid for Congress could end sooner rather than later.
Republican candidate Cheryl Baswell-Guthrie is on the air in CD-05.
Associated Press has noted that using Obama as a “Democratic albatross” for Democratic candidates is becoming something of a trend with Republicans. The strategy was not ultimately successful in Lousiana this weekend as a Democrat won a special election in a Republican stronghold for a seat that the GOP held for over 30 years. Bush had received 59% of the vote there in 2004.
The NRCC said that the strategy was indeed effective in Louisiana because Democrat Don Cazayoux had a much wider lead over Republican Woody Jenkins before the ads ran that linked Cazayoux to Obama. So perhaps the above ad will be effective for Cheryl Baswell-Guthrie.
But in the Republican primary?
Republican Wayne Parker is also on the air in CD-5.
Noted polling outfit Anzalone Liszt has polled the 3rd Congressional District for Democratic candidate Joshua Segall. A reader who attended a Segall fundraiser picked up a copy of the “Summary of Polling Results in Alabama’s Third Congressional District” and passed it along. You may read the whole thing (one page) here (pdf).
An excerpt:
Alabama’s Third Congressional District was drawn to be a swing district and despite years of Republican representation the district has retained its competitiveness. Republicans hold just a three-point lead on the generic ballot, and a majority of voters say things in the U.S. are moving in the wrong direction. This electorate is looking for change at the national level. Although Mike Rogers leads unknown challenger Joshua Segall, Rogers’ support is soft and falls under 50% after voters receive basic information about both candidates. The race will be competitive if Segall has the resources to compete in paid communications.
See the whole document in a pdf file.
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In Dothan this morning, 2nd Congressional District candidates attended the last of three debates/forums sponsored by AARP, the National Federation of Independent Business, Troy University, and WSFA-TV. The first one was televised, and State Sen. Harri Anne Smith garnered attention for missing the only televised debate. The last two forums featured questions from the audience.
The word this morning is that as soon as questions from the audience started, Sen. Smith got up and left, saying she had a prior commitment. The legislative session starts up again today, but the Senate begins an hour later than the House. She left Representatives David Grimes and Jay Love sitting there answering questions, leading Grimes to ask, “Why does it take longer for a Senator to get to Montgomery than a House Member?”
Sometimes perception and reality are the same, and sometimes they are not, but the perception that Smith may have to address is that she is ducking public appearances particularly that involve public interaction.
Update: There is a follow-up to this post here.
The House Republican caucus officially ended its filibuster of HB 350 last week, but several Republicans intend to continue the filibuster, Rep. David Grimes (R - Montgomery) has told the Political Parlor. [Proponents of HB350 say the bill makes multi-state corporations pay the Alabama taxes they have owed since 2001. Opponents claim the bill represents a retroactive tax that attempts to tax companies on past earnings.]
[Thursday,] I pressed my ‘Speak’ button along with several others and Mike Hubbard [R - Auburn] says, ‘What are you doing? The filibuster is over. We want to pass a couple of Jay Love’s bills.’
I said, ‘What? So Jay Love can get some headlines?’ He said, ‘No, it’s not just that. The Governor wants them passed.’
I am not going back on my word [to try to stop HB350]. If it was a bad bill yesterday, it’s a bad bill today.
Sounded like he was suggesting that Hubbard and Riley are trying to help Love win the 2nd Congressional District.
That’s exactly what they are doing. That’s exactly what they are doing. Maybe not Riley so much. But they want to allow a retroactive tax so Love can get some headlines. Love didn’t even write those bills. Someone in the Governor’s office did.
But I’m in good shape. The more they help Love, the more it helps me. Love doesn’t understand the district. It’s a rural district. That’s my people. He’s a city guy. Love was born on pillows. I was born on the ground.
He was getting warmed up.
Listen, did you know that I was instrumental in passing the first middle class tax cut in 70 years? I am going to let people know that I was instrumental in passing the first middle class tax cut in 70 years. Ever heard that before? All of Jay Love’s campaign material has that he was instrumental in passing the first middle class tax cut in 70 years. It was John Knight’s plan. Love voted for it, and so did I. Love’s bills died in committee. He gave Knight’s bill one vote. I gave it one vote. Then I guess I was instrumental in passing the first middle class tax cut in 70 years.
I don’t have to beat everybody in the primary. I just have to beat him to make the run-off with Harri Anne Smith. I’ll be in good shape.
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FWIW, there was a forum last night in Wetumpka sponsored by the Wetumpka, Millbrook, Elmore Co and Tallasee Chambers of Commerce. All candidates, Republican and Democrat, were in attendance except for Republicans Harri Anne Smith and David Grimes.
Anyone know what Smith’s conflict is tonight that will keep her from participating in the televised debate?
Her campaign has picked up Bill Harris of Prattville to serve as Coordinator of her Congressional campaign. From the release:
In 1996, he successfully ran Robert Aderholt’s first bid for the United States Congress, and then went on to serve as Congressman Aderholt’s District Director. In 1997 he ran the state’s Republican Party in the role of executive director. In 2004, he was elected as a Bush/Cheney delegate to the Republican National Convention from the second congressional district. Harris was elected this year as a Huckabee delegate, and will again represent the Republican Party as a convention delegate for the second congressional district.
Jeremy Cline, President of the Troy University College Democrats emailed me to say the group will host Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright on Tuesday, April 22 from 5 to 7 p.m. along with other local Democratic leaders.
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Republican Craig Schmidtke takes to the airwaves in the 2nd Congressional District race. And wants you to know his name.
A short post about a small issue. An ant bite.
When Sen. Harri Anne Smith released her statement yesterday announcing the withdrawal of her Senate bill, the release listed the contact info for the consultant to her Congressional campaign. (You can see it here at RickyStokesNews.com.) Readers made the point in email to me that she is not allowed to use her official state Senate letterhead in relation to her congressional campaign.
By itself, this is not a huge deal.
By and large, neither is the other unwanted attention her campaign has received, for example, for missing a televised debate, for introducing an electronic bingo bill for her constituents that she decides they don’t want, for violating Federal Election Committee rules by using state campaign funds to pay for polling related to the Congressional campaign.
They are ant bites and bee stings. Not a big deal. But if you get enough of them, they will take a toll on you.
 | Alabama Line |
(R) Jeff Sessions (1-19)
Would take a Larry Craig-type revelation to shake up this race.
(D) Vivian Figures (33-1)
Is anything shaking in this race at all?
(D) David Marsh (OFF)
A rumor here, a rumor there, but we haven’t seen that they have legs.
(D) Artur Davis (OFF)
Could have been strong underdog, but he’s out
(D) Jim Folsom (OFF)
No rumblings, whispers, or substantial rumors that he might run.
(D) Pete Johnson (OFF)
Said August 3 that he will not run. (B’ham News, 8/4/07)
(D) Ron Sparks (OFF)
Flirted with idea. Announced June 12 that he will not seek the office.
(R) Jo Bonner (1-29)
No obvious chinks in the armor.
(D) Benjamin Lodmell (>100-1)
Charge of soliciting more than votes gives him the longest of odds.
(D) Bobby Bright (3-2) NEW
Shoo-in for Democratic nomination, then the task toughens.
(R) Harri Anne Smith (3-1) NEW
Outright win only thing to keep her out of a GOP primary run-off.
(R) Jay Love (4-1) NEW
Easily the most viable of the Montgomery-area GOP candidates.
(R) David Woods (20-1) NEW
Is he crazy like a Fox-20 President?
(R) David Grimes (30-1) NEW
Showing least energy among those with some name ID.
(R) Craig Schmidtke (90-1) NEW
Oral surgeon will be able to numb the pain of loss.
(D) William Boyd (>100-1) NEW
Montgomery Mayoral hopeful will lose to Bright again.
(R) John W. Martin(>100-1) NEW
Army veteran will struggle to be competitive.
(R) Terry Everett (OFF)
The incumbent announced his retirement Sept. 26.
(R) Mike Rogers (1-11)
Heavy favorite but other incumbents have more favorably drawn districts.
(D) Josh Segall (19-1) NEW
District & early signs of professionalism up his chances a bit.
(R) Robert Aderholt (1-29)
Has built a base and enjoys powerful advantages of incumbency.
(D) Greg Warren (40-1)
It’s a sleeper race, and it’s still snoozing.
To be updated. See the AL-05 Big List.
(R) Ray McKee (tba)
The only announced challenger when Cramer announced retirement.
(D) Bud Cramer (OFF)
The incumbent announced his retirement on March 13.
(R) Spencer Bachus (1-70)
Most senior Republican in the state, in the most GOP District.
(D) Artur Davis (1-49)
Will be extremely difficult to unseat one of state Dems' leading lights.
(D) Jim Folsom (6-1)
LG has lots going for him, but plenty of obstacles until inaugural.
(R) Bradley Byrne (7-1)
Two year college ban is political gold. How rich is the vein?
(R) Troy King (17-2)
Top-ranking GOP candidate. Fierce detractors and fierce supporters.
(D) Artur Davis (9-1)
Little doubt that the popular Dem is considering a run.
(R) Mike Hubbard (13-1)
Party chair has nice launch pad but not committing to run.
(R) Jack Hawkins (15-1)
Transparent interest, would Riley's blessing be boon or bane?
(R) Kay Ivey (17-1)
Hitched her wagon to the wrong presidential candidate.
(D) Seth Hammett (18-1)
Maybe ties to 2-year college scandal are a little too close
(R) Tim James (19-1)
Announced, but politically inexperienced & has GOP detractors.
(R) Beth Chapman (20-1)
Too crowded. No reason for the SoS not to wait.
(D) Ron Sparks (20-1)
With Folsom & Davis obvious Dem frontrunners, he’ll likely pass.
(D) Mike Dow (22-1)
Too early to dismiss him from what may be his last shot.
(R) Tony Petelos (22-1)
Hoover Mayor focusing on re-election first.
(R) Luther Strange (22-1)
Might be more likely to run if King passes on this race.
(R) Charles Bishop (75-1)
Perennial possibility. Probably picked up pugilists’ support.
(R) Roy Moore (75-1)
Can’t rule him out until there is a stake in him. Is he still in GOP?
(R or I) Stan Pate (75-1)
Rumor says GOP curmudgeon considering. Perhaps as Independent?
(?) David Bronner (OFF)
He gets The Jimmy Rane TreatmentTM (See Rane below)
(L) Loretta Nall (OFF)
Tells the Parlor she won’t run for governor in 2010.
(R) Rob Riley (OFF)
The rumors are stale. Might run for AG.
(R) Harri Anne Smith (OFF)
She’ll be representing CD-2 or tainted by the loss.
(D) Susan Parker (OFF)
Democratic Party team player not needed off the bench.
(R) Jimmy Rane (OFF)
No indication that he is running despite earlier rumors.
(R) Richard Shelby (OFF)
Riley/Shelby office swap intriguing idea but no indication that he’ll run.
The Alabama Line and its contents are the creation of Doc’s Political Parlor, reflect consensus from insiders and well-connected folks on both sides of the aisle, and will be updated as conditions change. These odds are meant to inform, entertain, and provoke, not to serve as actual means for losing money. Permission granted to use this material if PoliticalParlor.net is cited as the source.
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