Posted by Here is a side-by-side look at the current map of Alabama Congressional Districts and the proposed map that will be introduced into the Legislature this week from the Joint Legislative Committee on Redistricting.
Note that this new map is not the one originally proposed by the committee co-chairmen, Sen. Gerald Dial (R – Lineville) and Rep. Jim McClendon (R – Springville), with input from Alabama’s delegation in the U.S. House of Representatives. Nor is it the map proposed by state Sen. Gerald Allen (R – Cottondale) that was passed Wednesday by the Joint Legislative Committee on Redistricting.
No, this is the one passed Thursday by the Committee. The proposal was sponsored by state Rep. Micky Hammon (R – Decatur) though Gerald Dial was said to be the creator of the plan. You can expect legislators to offer proposed changes from the floor.
Click on the image to see it larger.
What they are doing is obvious. Hilliard gave up black voters in 2002. The GOP didn’t like how close it was was in 2008 in the 3rd and hated losing in the 2nd and 5th. So, they pushed as many minorities and union folks into places where they could have no impact. The GOPers, like the Southern Baptist Convention, exist only in the South because of the Dems and regular Baptist church identifying with blacks.
NO WAY the 7th district gains the 80,000 or so people it needed just to get UP TO the median with this map, and by 2020 it’ll be 150,000 people shprt. There are zero population growth areas in that district. Draw it majority black but get real on size; this makes a mockery of “one man one vote.”
Gerry, I’m going to have to assume you’re exaggerating…a doubling of population in 9 years seems a bit high. I still disagree with drawing any district majority black or majority white. Draw the dang districts based on population and ignore race. Or is that politically incorrect?
I really feel for the people (white and black) of Montgomery. They will see their clout in Congress diluted to almost nothing just because Martha Roby is afraid of a challenge. With the increasingly Dem leanings of the Wiregrass (about the only region of the state that is trending that way apart from JeffCo metro, I will admit), I predict she will still struggle against a credible candidate in 2012.
Kluger, unfortunately drawing the districts based on population alone is illegal. Our friends at the DOJ remind us often that we must focus on race.
DOJ…what do we do when many areas, like mine, are very, very diverse and you cannot draw a “black” district? Do you then draw spider district lines down individual streets to individual homes to get the numbers? I have lived in my neighborhood for almost 20 years and we a significant number of Asian, black and Indian. I believe our area is like many around the state and there is much more “integration”. Isn’t that what we want?
Therm – yes, i agree with you as to what we should want, however, the reality is that the DOJ forces the issue. Thus, should a state like Alabama only account for population, then the DOJ would claim retrogression and we would be forced to go back and redraw based on black/white. What year is it again?
You’re correct that the way we are mandated to draw the lines leads to the spider districts. Unfortunately it doesn’t appear as if it will be changing any time soon.
Samford Dem: I agree that Houston County voted for Sparks and Roby is just a shell. They are getting what they voted for though….just like teachers…voting against their own interest. Bright was much better. Do anyone think Roby or anyone in that Congressional Delegation can save Maxwell or Ft. Rucker when the next round of Base closing comes???
Samford Dem, you know not of which you speak. Rs picked up 4 legislative seats this past cycle in the Wiregrass. Interesting that you would call that a trend D. Maybe it is trending Republican at a smaller rate than other areas of the state? Is that what you meant? That doesn’t even take into account a bunch of local seats that have gone R.
The only Wiregrass County to vote for Sparks was Henry County and they voted for 12 of 14 statewide Republicans. Houston, Covington, Dale, Pike, Coffee are all trending heavily GOP
Samford Dem and Dirty Harry – you guys must hate the facts. The Wiregrass went for the GOP in both 08 and 10 specific to the Congressional races. It will again in 2012. Bright could not even win Dale County – his “birth” county. And Maxwell Gunter and Fort Rucker suffering in a BRAC ? – utterly ridiculous and proof that you know nothing about the missions at either installation. Be a Republican hater all you want – but don’t be so fast and loose with the facts.
Coffee, Geneva, Houston, Dale are the heart of the Wiregrass and all of these counties were carried by all fourteen of fourteen GOP statewide candidates. These counties have majority-GOP in their county courthouses as well.
Covington County went for 13 of 14 statewide GOP candidates–the exception being their home county man Glenn Zorn, Dem nominee for Ag Commissioner.
Henry County went 12 of 14 on statewide GOP candidates.
Wiregrass trending Democratic? Hardly
I find myself on the same side of 2010. Maybe there is something to the end of the world prediction :)
I am sure when he begins touting Mitt Romney or John Huntsman for President, we will, as usual, part company
Believe it or not John K – I do not support either for President. Gee – maybe the end of the world is indeed coming soon since Killian and I agree yet again!
2010, you must be holding out for Bob Riley. Surely, you are supporting the moderate wing of the GOP
Rev. Killian what are your thoughts at this stage for the Republican Presidential primary?
Thanks.
Leave the Rev alone, PL.
Are you pushing Roy Moore again?
I will start thinking about 2012 when we get nearer the time.
Am I safe to assume that Prince Liberty is again supporting Judge Moore?
I am sorry if I did not make myself clear: trending Democratic meant just that. It did not mean that Democrats are winning elections all over the place in the Wiregrass. It meant that the Wiregrass, which shifted to the GOP a good while before the other rural regions of the state, has become a more not less competitive area for Democrats at the state and federal level in the last cycle. Jay Love and Marth Roby depended on the Wiregrass to deliver blowouts in order to be competitive in AL-2 as a whole. If the Democratic nominee for AL-2 keeps it close in the Wiregrass, Roby will struggle very much to hold on to the seat.
It also doesn’t help that she apparently sought to dilute the voting strength of military men and women. I think that’s always a bad call. Gerrymandering VRA-mandated voting districts is bad enough; what Roby has pressured the redistricting commission to do has all but guaranteed that Montgomery will lose out both in BRAC and in appropriations.
Samford Dem – that is the biggest load of crap I have heard lately. Your partisanship blinds you. The factual basis for your claims has been proven false – yet you still throw out the same gibberish.
Wait & See the wiregrass & maybe Montgomery will suffer when BRAC comes around!! I think Ft. Rucker would be shut down before Maxwell b.c they still have the prison, etc.
Fort Rucker is the post for all army rotary wing training. If you fly a helicopter in the U.S. Army, you have to come through Fort Rucker. Last time I checked, the Army wasn’t exactly phasing out helicopters. In addition, Fort Rucker does significant UAV training and some fixed wing specialty training. No other post can replicate the conditions (air space, room for growth, infrastructure currently in place, climate, etc.) that are at Fort Rucker. Army Generals as well as Department of Defense ranking officials have continually said as long as there is Army Aviation, there will be a thriving Fort Rucker. Sorry if that makes you unhappy, Dirty Harry. Maybe you should just talk about bingo ???
Don’t be so sure Rucker is safe, 10. I heard similar arguments for many years as to why Ft. McClellan could not be closed . . .and it was shut down just the same.
Rucker is probably the Alabama installation most likely to close. Redstone Arsenal, Maxwell, the Army Depot in Anniston . . . Rucker could possibly survive longer than the Depot but not longer than Maxwell or Redstone . . .so it could be cut.
2010, let’s look at my factual basis.
In the 9 Wiregrass Counties: Barbour, Coffee, Crenshaw, Dale, Geneva, Henry, Houston, Pike, and Covington.
2006: Baxley 37.7%, Riley 62.3%
2010: Sparks 45.4%, Bentley 54.6%
AL-2
2006: DEM 25.5%, GOP 74.5%
2008: DEM 45.2%, GOP 54.6%
2010: DEM 47.7%, GOP 52.1%
2010 was obviously a terrible year for Dems all over the state; they didn’t win many elections in the Wiregrass either. But the fact is that they not only held their own compared to previous elections in the region, they actually improved their percentage of the vote in the worst environment for Dems perhaps ever. If Bright runs again in 2012, he would likely win the Wiregrass counties. That is a trend and it does not bode well for Martha Roby.
SamfordDem,
I’m sure those districts will require quite a bit of redistricting as the census data is showing a great deal of population decline in many wiregrass counties. Which with such declines I could understand some of that % shift in the electorate. Some, not all.
BTW Roy Moore has released his catchy slogan for his presidential run:
Vote for Roy Moore or God will send you to hell.
Kluger,
That decline is probably the reason that 20,000 more people voted in the 2010 governor’s race in the Wiregrass than did in 2006. Turnout is increasing and Dem share is growing. Again, a bad sign for Martha Roby that no amount of gerrymandering can hide.
Samford Dem – try all you will – the Wiregrass is Republican. The state legislators are Republican, most of the local elected officials are now Republican, and Bright lost the Wiregrass in 08 and 10. Get over it – he lost – the Dems lost – and they will again.
And fyi – Crenshaw is not a Wiregrass County and Pike is usually not considered one either. And Barbour – yes, I give you that one – it will be a Democrat County for years to come. As Killian noted, look to Houston, Henry, Dale, Geneva, Coffee and to a degree – Covington counties. Those are typically known as the Wiregrass. You must be from “up north” – and it shows.
As a Republican I hope SamfordDem’s rationale is used by all Democrats in 2012. Wow. But to the point of the original post, what are the chances of the Hammon plan passing as is versus being successfully amended in the Senate or House?
Wiregrass Voter,
Bright and Sparks actually increased their predecessors’ vote shares in every single Wiregrass County as far as I can tell. Again, I am not arguing that the Wiregrass is going to be dominated by Dems in the near future. But it is becoming more competitive. And, as an area that could previously be relied upon to provide Republican landslides, that does not bode well for Republicans region-wide.
On which counties I included, I looked to the state’s own listiing. You remind me of the “No true Scotsman” fallacy. A Scotsman says “No true Scotsman drinks Irish whiskey.” When confronted with a Scotsman that does in fact drink Irish whiskey, he says “No TRUE Scotsman drinks Irish whisky.”
I am from up north but my numbers are not. They lay out a scenario that is precarious for GOPers in the coming elections in the Wiregrass.
No I do not support Roy Moore for President. I already stated that earlier in the post that went about it when he first floated the idea.
I notice that no one has commented about the GOP’s determination to divide the Shoals area into Districts 4 and 5, thereby splitting a lean Democratic constituency and giving Republicans solid majorities in both districts. Makes political sense for the Republicans, but a sad development for the Florence/Muscle Shoals area, which has such integrated business, nonprofit, and educational institutions.
SamfordDem:
You’re confusing reactions to the specific candidates with a trend in party affiliation of voters. Bright increased Dem numbers because he’s closer to being a Rep than a Dem. Run a less right-leaning Dem and see how your “trend” holds up.
Samford Dem
You have obviously done some quality research and have a legitimate point about the Wiregrass. I do think two issues should be considered:
1) In SE Alabama, the Country Crossings issue hurt Bentley and helped Sparks. Even though Bentley won the counties (except Henry), he ran behind Kay Ivey in most of those counties. In the rest of the state, Bentley ran significantly ahead of Ivey.
2) Bobby Bright was a great campaigner and, in 2010, ran as an incumbent. With Roby as the incumbent in 2012 and with the district carved up more favorably for Republicans, I don’t see Roby receiving a serious challenge.
But you have a worthy perspective. 2012 will be a crossroads year. Alabama has been a Federal-level Republican state for years. Now, we have become Republican at the state level. However, Alabama is still marginally Democratic in the courthouses. Will counties like Dale, Tallapoosa, Madison, Cullman elect Republican Probate Judges? Will Republican Circuit Clerks win in 2012? This will determine if Alabama is to become a truly Republican state.
Mr. Killian,
Thanks for the hat tip. You and are actually in total agreement on the underlying issues that helped Democrats in the region. I would say to MtgyAU that Bright is about par for the course for a white Alabama Democrat. There were many Dem legislators at the state level who were at least as conservative as him and yet the albatross of the (D) around their necks dragged them to defeat just the same. Another issue to consider in the Wiregrass is that many voters in the region were upset about how the Harri Anne Smith situation was handled by the local GOP. The Baxley/Graddick fiasco should be a reminder to the GOP that, while Alabamians are a conservative people, they do not like being taken for granted or manhandled by any party. They do not like party purity tests and they do not like being told that they cannot vote in whatever primary they choose.
On the courthouse argument, it will be very interesting to watch. I am already hearing some very real grumbling from folks on the ground about the legislature’s refusal to take up the pay raise, the fact that they seem to be more focused on going after the AEA than creating jobs, and that they have not done any more on the pro-life front than the old Dem legislature. In those counties you mention, I will be the first to admit that it will be tough with Obama at the top of the ticket but, at the same time, there is real voter frustration with both parties now that power is divided in Washington DC and solely in GOP hands in Montgomery. The downside of winning elections is that you have to assume responsibility for everything that happens after.
Bright would have a better chance if he waits until 2014.
Obama at the top of ticket is going to tremendous liablity in 2012.
PL I think Obama will be a liability in most areas of Alabama, but the black vote will spike high with Obama in 2012 which would probably give the Demos a better chance THEN than in 2014 in districts with a sizable black voting population. In short, Bright’s best shot would probably be 2012 with Obama rather than 2014 with a statewide slate of GOP candidates to help Roby.
I do not see Bright running unless the Democratic party promises to give him a million dollars or more yet again. I doubt they will as they will target other races instead. Without PAC money and money from the Democratic party, Bright can raise very little. If you think otherwise, just look at his finances from the last race when he was actually an incumbent. It was very weak at best. I agree with Killian in that I doubt Roby will get a serious challenge. I aslo agree with Killian (yes, it is hard to believe) that the gambling issue created a certain dynamic in some Wiregrass counties in 2010 that will not be replicated. The true test for the strength of the Republican party in the Wiregrass has now moved on to local (county) races. If you think otherwise, look at how many local elected officials are all the sudden swicthing parties from Democrat to Republican in the Wiregrass.
You all are writing as if Bright is running again. I do not see Bobby Bright running again. Do you know something not publicly known about Bright’s intentions?
The Democrats first choice for a candidate would be Bright – but that’s not the same as him running. But he probably would like to return to DC.
Likely he sees this is bad year and does not run and the Democrats fail to come up a strong candidate – most likely that fail to seriously challenge any Republican incumbent in 2012.
LOL democrats…. they still exist in this state?
a toast to all those that made it possible for the new tenure bill to pass. Cry me a river AEA
I do not see Bright running unless the Democratic party promises to give him a million dollars or more yet again. I doubt they will as they will target other races instead. Without PAC money and money from the Democratic party, Bright can raise very little. If you think otherwise, just look at his finances from the last race when he was actually an incumbent. It was very weak at best. I agree with Killian in that I doubt Roby will get a serious challenge. I aslo agree with Killian (yes, it is hard to believe) that the gambling issue created a certain dynamic in some Wiregrass counties in 2010 that will not be replicated. The true test for the strength of the Republican party in the Wiregrass has now moved on to local (county) races. If you think otherwise, look at how many local elected officials are all the sudden swicthing parties from Democrat to Republican in the Wiregrass.
When 2010 agrees with me, I must be on the wrong side
In honor of Macho Man Randy Savage, Alabama Republicans, with the RNC as its manager, put a choke hold on its capital city (see map for illustration).
The Wiregrass voters embrassed themselves by re-electing Senator Smith very well knowing she is a crook.
Princeliberty is correct. The Wiregrass did embarrass themselves by voting for an indicted Senator. And very likely, they may get the chance to vote again in that election. It also back to what SamfordDem was trying to spin. The gambling issue skewed some races in the Wiregrass including some support for Ron Sparks that ordinarily would not have been there; plus support for Smith. Bright tried to carefully capitalize on it as well by saying the charges against Smith and other were ‘political.’ All that being said, it does seem the people of the Wiregrass have now wised up to the situation. Especially since Ronnie Gilley and others have plead guilty.
If I never hear or see Judge Roy Moore again forever, it will be too soon. I have it from more than one source that while a Circuit Judge Moore split judgments handed down by him with the plaintiffs’ attorneys. Every time I shake Moore’s hand, I feel an urgent need to dip my right arm in boiling water.
Complacency: I’ll take my chances with that lake of fire you mentioned, thank you.
If I never hear or see Judge Roy Moore again forever, it will be too soon. I have it from more than one source that while a Circuit Judge Moore split judgments handed down by him with the plaintiffs’ attorneys. Every time I shake Moore’s hand, I feel an urgent need to dip my right arm in boiling water.