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Come Wednesday morning the state GOP hopes to find itself with a Senate majority for the first time in 136 years. I’ve listened carefully enough in the right corners that I can tell you how the GOP believes that can happen.
In the 35 seat Senate, a caucus needs 18 votes to have a majority.
Five Republican incumbents are unopposed: Arthur Orr in SD 3, Jabo Waggoner in SD 16, Jimmy Holley in SD 31, Tripp Pittman in SD 32, and Rusty Glover in SD 34. Two more Republicans will be entering the Senate without any opposition: state Rep. Cam Ward in SD 14 (in the seat Hank Erwin vacated to run for Lt. Gov) and Slade Blackwell in SD 15 (in the seat last held by Republican Steven French).
The GOP feels quite good about its chances in six other races:
- Paul Bussman in SD 4 (against incumbent Zeb Little),
- Greg Reed in SD 5 (against Brett Wadsworth for the seat vacated by Republican Charles Bishop),
- Clay Scofield in SD 9 (against Tim Mitchell for the seat vacated by retiring Democrat Hinton Mitchem),
- Del Marsh in SD 12 (against Wallace Wyatt),
- Scott Beason in SD 17 (against Tommy Hudson),
- Dick Brewbaker in SD 25 (against Doug Smith for the open seat vacated by retiring Republican Larry Dixon).
Only two of those are GOP incumbents (Beason and Marsh) but Republicans have felt quite good about their chances in these elections.
The Republicans believe with only some less confidence than they have in the above races that they are likely to win two more races:
- Bill Holtzclaw who is challenging Dem Tom Butler in SD 2, and
- Incumbent Ben Brooks in SD 35 (against Scott Buzbee)
If you are keeping up, you know that these total 15 seats. If they win those 15, then the keys to winning the Senate lie in three district races that the GOP believes are clearly leaning their way:
- SD 21 where state Rep. Gerald Allen is challenging Democratic incumbent Phil Poole,
- SD 27 where former Dem Tom Whatley is challenging Democratic incumbent Ted Little, and
- SD 30 where Bryan Taylor is challenging Democratic incumbent Walking Wendell Mitchell
Those three Democratic Senators have served a combined 76 years or nineteen terms in the state Senate, and the GOP believes they are poised to send them packing.
Victories in all of the above races would give the GOP 18 votes necessary to claim a Senate majority.
In addition, four other Republicans could provide either a larger majority or a cushion in case the Dems pull surprises in any of the above races. Incumbent Paul Sanford in SD 7 (fighting off a challenge from Jeff Enfinger), Phil Williams in SD 10 (against Dem incumbent Larry Means), Gerald Dial in SD 13 (against Greg Varner for Democrat Kim Benefield‘s old seat), and Danny Joyner in SD 22 (against incumbent Marc Keahey) are in races that the GOP believes are leaning their way.
Other races could go their way as well, but here is the path that the GOP sees to a Senate majority.
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Danny, what are you guys hearing specifically on Allen/Poole in Senate District 21? From what I see/hear, I wouldn’t put this one in anyone’s “Clearly Leaning” category.
So I guess that means the Republicans don’t think George Flowers will win in SD29?
I keep saying, “don’t count those chickens, yet.” This is going to be interesting on Tuesday night with a great deal of blood letting and surprises on both sides of the aisle. Commoner, face it, George Flowers is too weak a candidate and a bad choice. Not even his own party believes he can win.
I’d like to see a poll. I’ve answered several phone polls myself but have never seen any results.
Whose the Democrat candidate in SD29?
There is not a Dem. candidate in SD29. Jennifer Adams conveniently dropped out of the race after HAS qualified as an Independent. So, I guess she’ll be pulling in all the Dem. votes, as she is really a Dem.anyway.
18(D) 16(R) and 1(I) when the smoke clears……..
Proud AEA member –
I’d be lying if I said I was surprised to see you post that prediction. That being said, how do you think the Democrats will have 18 seats?
What about Flowers? Does anyone seriously doubt that he will defeat Smith?
Proud AEA,
Your smoke is coming from a left-handed cigarette if you think the Dems win 18 seats.
Flowers is a joke. It’s hard to believe that you may live in the Wiregrass, princeliberty.
Reform it is an opinion. I am of the opinion that Democrats will maintain 18 seats, Republicans 16 seats and 1 Independent….but if you must know I see Democrats like Mitchell, both Little’s and Butler holding on to their seats…..Zeb Little will have something coming soon that seals his seat…..
Don’t see how Wendell Mitchell holds onto his seat.
Mitchell is a scrappy guy, no doubt. Remember 2006, when we thought for sure he was vulnerable, and he ended up winning with 62 percent? Granted, he was running against a GOP candidate who ran an awful campaign, but still. He is a household name in SD30, and gets a lot of crossover support. I hope Bryan Taylor wins, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.
There will be no reform whether Republicans or Democrats win the Senate. It is too entrenched and involved in its’ self serving attitude. It will continue to be legislative efforts for special interests. I can already see the Bob Riley Highway debate looming in our future. That is, right after the Senate agrees to pay raises and an increase in taxes. Wake up!!
Please vote!