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Thanks to political insiders on both sides of the aisle who have helped us reconsider the ratings on the state House races.
I’d like to expand on this a bit later, but for now let us simply get right to it with little comment.
Here is how the ratings have changed.
HD 1 from Toss Up to Lean Dem – Greg Burdine (D) v. Quinton Hanson (R) for the seat vacated by Tammy Irons (D)
HD 2 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – incumbent Mike Curtis (D) v. Lynn Greer (R)
HD 5 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – incumbent Henry White (D) v. Dan Williams (R) with Independent Jerry Hill in the race also.
HD 7 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Jody Letson (D) v. Ken Johnson (R)
HD 8 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – Drama Breland (D) v. Terri Collins (R) for the seat vacated by Bill Dukes (D)
HD 9 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – Kathy White Goodwin (D) v. Ed Henry (R) for the seat held by Ron Grantland (D)
HD 12 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent James Fields (D) v. Mac Buttram (R)
HD 13 from Likely Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Tommy Sherer (D) v. Bill Roberts (R)
HD 14 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – incumbent Ken Guin (D) v. Richard Baughn (R)
HD 16 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent William Thigpen (D) v. Daniel Boman (R)
HD 21 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Randy Hinshaw (D) v. Jim Patterson (R)
HD 22 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Butch Taylor (D) v. Wayne Johnson (R)
HD 24 from Likely GOP to Lean GOP – Nathaniel Ledbetter (D) v. incumbent Todd Greeson (R)
HD 27 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Jeff McLaughlin (D) v. Wes Long (R)
HD 29 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Jack Page (D) v. Becky Nordgren (R)
HD 35 from Lean Dem to Toss Up – incumbent Steve Hurst (D) v. Steven Dean (R)
HD 37 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Richard Laird (D) v. Bob Fincher (R)
HD 39 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Richard Lindsey (D) v. Timothy Sprayberry (R)
HD 42 from Lean Dem to Lean GOP – incumbent Jimmy Martin (D) v. Kurt Wallace (R)
HD 61 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Alan Harper (D) v. Frank Chandler (R)
HD 62 from Likely GOP to Safe GOP – John Merrill (R) v. Constitution Party candidate Steven Kneussle. Dem candidate dropped out.
HD 63 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – Susan Pace Hamill (D) v. Bill Poole (R) for the seat vacated by GOP gubernatorial candidate Robert Bentley.
HD 73 from Lean GOP to Toss Up – Joe Hubbard (D) v. incumbent David Grimes (R)
HD 80 from Safe Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Lesley Vance (D) v. Mervin Dudley (R)
HD 81 from Lean Dem to Lean GOP – incumbent Betty Carol Graham (D) v. Mark Tuggle (R)
HD 84 from Safe Dem to Likely Dem – Berry Forte (D) v. Joyce Perrin (R) for the seat vacated by Billy Beasley (D)
HD 86 from Lean GOP to Toss Up – Merritt Carothers (D) v. Paul Lee (R) for the seat vacated by Benjamin Lewis (R)
HD 90 from Likely Dem to Lean Dem – incumbent Charles Newton (D) v. Jerry Hartin (R)
HD 91 from Toss Up to Lean GOP – incumbent Terry Spicer (D) v. Barry Moore (R)
HD 92 from Lean GOP to Likely GOP – David Darby (D) v. Mike Jones (R) for the seat opened by the retirement of Seth Hammett (D)
HD 93 from Likely GOP to Safe GOP – Ronnie Helms (D) v. incumbent Steve Clouse (R)
With 105 seats in the House, 53 is a majority. If you look at the whole list and tally them up, you see 53 in the red (lean, likely or safe GOP), 43 in the blue (lean, likely, or safe Democrat), and 9 toss ups. There will be some surprises, but with this as our starting point there will have to be a lot of surprises in the Dems’ favor or we are looking at a GOP majority in the state House.
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Good list Danny.
Has anyone counted the total number of NEW representatives this would be if each district in which an incumbent party is not leaned, likely, or safe? I was curious how ‘sweeping’ of the old and in with the new these predictions would result in?
Thanks!
Hubbard will not beat Grimes.
the momentum is with the Rs. The tracking numbers have Bentley moving back up to high double digits and Ivey within a couple of points of Folsom. The more straight ticket voting the better the chances close races like Hubbard/Grimes Fields/Buttram break at the end toward the GOP.
The possible big upset is Boman over Thigpen in HD 16.
I’m hoping the backlash against Bentley won’t be detrimental to those Republicans in close races.
If this trend is accurate, it will be a long night for the (D)s.
It looks like you’ve simply shifted everything to the right by one degree.
@RepubReform I have read several message boards across the state from Tuscaloosa to Mobile to North Alabama. Many still seem to want to vote for the other Republican candidates so I don’t think that is a thread however them staying home is.
Hubbard will overtake Grimes in HD 73. Read the plan.
Anonymous: plans are nice and all, but when you are 1 out of 105, probably in the minority party at that point, and you are the new guy, chances are the leadership isn’t going to give you the time of day. Let’s say the Democrats maintain the majority, most of us have been waiting for them to enact their “Covenant for the Future” since 2007. Democrats have a poor record in the Legislature when it comes to plans so I’m not going to hold my breath that a newly elected Democrat will get even part of his plan through.
That said, I still think Grimes wins this race.
Rebel – I hope you’re right. We’ll see on Tuesday.
Sitting here listening to Dr Hubbert give his farewell speech to Guin and Sherer. He is scaring the daylights out of teachers in the room about their retirement and benefits. Sorry Dr Hubbert, you should have kept some back out of these guys other salaries. Farewell King Guin!
I have to disagree with HD 27. Wes Long has brought new meaning to “dirty politics.” They type of race he has run is disgusting and doesn’t sit well with Marshll County voters. I have no doubt this will be a close race, I just find it hard to believe that Long can pull it out. Too many lies and a low-brow campaign.
Jeff McLaughlin is Alabama’s man.
McLaughlin wins for sure… However neither side even comes close to having the magic number of 63 for cloture. Deals have to be cut and party lines will have to crossed. The House can accomplish this but seriously doubt the Senate can! You will have some R’s as chairman’s and D’s as chairman’s…
Slick you bare correct to a point but the party in power gets the majority on all House committee’s……the most important committee is the Ways and Means which is where bills come to life or die….
hubbard has had a bad week. lied about grimes’ voting record in a mailer and got caught.
What you’re saying about HD 5 matches up with polling numbers I heard this evening. If this seat goes GOP I expect a lot of gnashing of teeth from Democrats on Tuesday night since I can’t remember a Republican ever winning a House seat that was exclusively in Limestone County.
Let’s see, the seat vacated by Benjamin Lewis. Oh yeah, he’s the guy that was the State Attorney in Florida who tanked property taxes and put 6,000 people out of work in Dothan, Alabama by deciding to vote against Bingo. Then he was paid off by being chosen over more qualified persons for a seat on the bench based on his vast experienced gained during the four years since he passed the bar. Talk about payoffs.
Now you want Paul Lee. Isn’t he the one who pushed through the purchase of property from John Downs of an empty lot for a park? It still is nothing more than an empty lot. And isn’t it John Downs and John Watson who gave $100,000 to Dr. Dr. Bentley for his campaign? And isn’t it Qualico Steel (owned by John) that provided the steel to build the Beau Rivage casino in Biloxi?
Paul Lee is like George Flowers. Bought and paid for by the two Johns who want to control everything in the Wiregrass. And keep the rest of the voting public cowed, afraid, and under their thumbs.
Veritas, be careful with the word “lied.” I heard them both on the Dan Morris show, and Hubbard was right on all the issues in that mailer, they just weren’t worded as well as they could have been.
Grimes is getting desperate, calling Hubbard a liar and an opportunist everytime he opens his mouth. Folks in Montgomery see through it.
House District 27 from Lean Dem to Toss Up? Really!! Wes Long, and now his mother, Joan Long Howell, have brought politicking to an all time low and the people of Marshall County are getting sick of it. They reacting negatively toward him, and now his family. Wes Long has shot himself in the foot with his negative campaigning, out and out lies and distortions of the truth (not the mention the law). Jeff McLaughlin will win by a landslide!
“Oh yeah, he’s the guy that was the State Attorney in Florida who tanked property taxes and put 6,000 people out of work in Dothan, Alabama by deciding to vote against Bingo. ”
Yeah ol’ Fart, 6000 people really worked for bingo in Dothan.
“Now you want Paul Lee. Isn’t he the one who pushed through the purchase of property from John Downs of an empty lot for a park? It still is nothing more than an empty lot. And isn’t it John Downs and John Watson who gave $100,000 to Dr. Dr. Bentley for his campaign? And isn’t it Qualico Steel (owned by John) that provided the steel to build the Beau Rivage casino in Biloxi?”
Yep, gotta agree that Paul Lee was poor choice. However, Merritt “I’m in the pocket of the AEA” Carouthers isn’t any better.
Commoner, just so you can learn something: 1,500 persons working at the Bingo Pavilion and other Country Crossing facilities. 3,000 construction jobs. Then we lost jobs in Dothan and the surrounding area by the “ripple effect, e.g., through the loss of purchasing power by the general public. Then you lost the jobs in tourism with the hotels in Dothan and the surrounding areas being reduced. And don’t forget the businesses that were supplying Country Crossing. For a person who believes in republican methods for increasing employment, you and Bob Riley sure crapped on the Wiregrass by reducing jobs in a recession and thinking that you have helped. Paul Lee is only out there for himself and the two johns. Yes, I do use the term regarding Watson and Downs to visualize another less pleasant item, specifically a “two holer,” because they are, along with the rest of you mindless republican robots, flushing the Wiregrass down the drain. Turn it around and think: if Riley had put that many jobs in the Wiregrass, you’d be deifying him today. Shame on you for agreeing with hurting so many persons, families and businesses by hiding behind Riley’s transparent waste of money and scarce resources on something that has yet to even been determined to be illegal, but has been the norm for almost 20 years in Alabama. Congratulations for backing Riley and his Indian payoff through the Alabama Baptist Association. Take time to read the “Gimme Five” Report, then tell me you believe.
You folks saying bad things about Wes Long need to provide some examples of “dirty campaigning” or nobody will take you seriously. And for the record, pointing out that McLaughling is one of the most liberal members of the House is not “dirty campaigning”. That’s the truth. Look up his voting record.
This is why Republicans should be held back or at least why Mike Hubbard should not become Speaker.
http://www.thetuskegeenews.com/articles/2010/10/28/opinion/doc4cc8753903ed9709148896.txt
BTW, any one have a link to the most recent ADC, New South Coalition endorsement lists?
And a hint to web page maintainers, on the page that describes the org’s PAC why not a simple link to the current list of endorsed candidates?
Jack Straw, Laws Jeff McLaughlin’s sponsored and gotten passed:
· TVA in-lieu-of tax bill
· Tennessee River Protection Act
· New Judgeship bill for Marshall County
· Streamline Marshall County Court System bill
· Greenfields bill (helping businesses use property)
· Serviceman’s bill (helping families of servicemen killed while serving our country)
· Landlord Tenant Act (helping landlords & tenants)
· Enhanced Domestic Violence Crime bill
· Two Firefighter Protection bills
· Ephedrine bill (fighting meth makers)(co-sponsored)
· Brody bill (protecting unborn babies)(co-sponsored)
· And he’s made Campaign Reform a real issue, passing the PAC to PAC ban 8 years straight in the House
EFFORTS Jeff has supported and will support:
· Campaign Finance Reform
· Stronger Ethics Laws
· Economic Development and JOBS creation
· Education as our greatest responsibility
· Less Partisanship— Let’s work together!
He’s also pro-life, anti-gambling, wants to pass tough immigration laws and has voted to protect the sanctity of marriage. If this is what you call liberal, your own views must be right of Attila the Hun…
Jeff McLaughlin, has just been endorsed by The Sand Mountain Reporter in Marshall County, a newspaper with conservative editorials. While they endorsed the republicans running in the House District 26 and Senate District 9 races, they broke with their norm, and endorsed the democratic incumbent for House District 27.
Quote: “Guntersville attorney Jeff McLaughlin deserves re-election to another term in the Alabama House of Representatives. He has served District 27 and the state with great dignity and integrity, currently sitting on the Education Appropriation Committee, among others. With his colleagues Frank McDaniel and Hinton Mitchem retiring this year, Marshall County badly needs to have an experienced voice remain in state government. McLaughlin is our strong choice for this post.”
Had not seen that article on Hubbard. Certainly we Republicans can do better than Mike Hubbard. First, taking sides in gubernatorial primary while party chair. Now profiting from his position.
Dan Morris backed up Joe Hubbard’s statements about Grimes’ voting record, and Grimes had to back down and admit he had missed votes, right on the radio. I felt sorry for him. He also flip flopped on another important issue in the face of criticism while Hubbard stood his ground. The Montgomery Advertiser has now endorsed Hubbard. Game change.
Paul Davis has long had an irrational hatred of Mike hubbard. He never provides any evidence for his stories, just made up fantasy. All his stories were discredited four years ago when the AEA spent millions trying to unseat Hubbard.
Susan the facts speak loud and clear….Auburn left millions on the table in regard to their broadcasting rights. It appears that it was Hubbard’s company facing financial collapse if he did not get a new contract. If Auburn University had that extra money their athletic Department would have made a profit instead of showing a loss.
Why did Hubbard push through a bill that exempted Auburn from competitive bid law, if not to protect his self-interest?
Mike Hubbard serves one person, himself.
As an Attorney in the City of Sulligent who has been involved in industrial development for 25 years, many times legislative actions become stagnant. We have to have new blood in our legislature. Dan Boman is running for the people of Lamar County, Fayette County and a portion of Tuscaloosa County in House District 16. He offers new blood and insight for industrial development. His opposition is William Thigpen. I am saying nothing negative about William Thigpen. However, it is just time for new young blood to help our district get out of the recession our District has been in for many years. Please support Republican Dan Boman and help Dr. Bentley from Tuscaloosa in forming new leadership for our area. What is good for Tuscaloosa is good for Fayette and Lamar County.
I am not a huge fan of Mike Hubbard, at least not for Speaker of the House… but I know for a fact that much of the information that was stated in that article is not true or is incredibly skewed. His sources must be on crack. This guy has an obvious grudge against either Auburn University or Mike Hubbard, or both.
Tuskegee is not even in Hubbard’s district and I promise you there are very minimal people in Hubbard’s district that would even consider reading something from the Tuskegee News anyway, so he’s just wasting his time and pissing off someone he is better off not pissing off. What a joke.
trying to look for votes on this board is futile everyone on here has already made up their minds so save it just interested in the updates etc
Anonymous, what in the article by Paul Davis is not factual? As to Davis his family owned the old Auburn News, his blood bleeds orange and blue.
Mike Hubbard needs to get off the government teat and earn a legitimate income…What does Mr. Davis have to fear?
It looks like Du’Wayne Bridges will likely be upset by Huey P long. Go Long !
Please vote!