Posted by 
July’s REDMAP Political Report [.pdf] from the Republican State Leadership Committee contends that nationally in 2010 Republicans will pick up control of four legislative chambers, that Democrats will not pick up any, and that twelve chambers controlled by Democrats (including Alabama’s House and Senate) are “solidly in play.”
The report explains, “The REDistricting MAjority Project (REDMAP) is a program of the Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) dedicated to winning Republican control of state legislatures that will have the most impact on Congressional redistricting in 2011.”
According to the report, three open state Senate seats in Alabama are in play, one held by a Republican and two held by Democrats. In addition, seven Democratic incumbents and two Republican incumbents hold seats are in play. The GOP needs to pick up a net of three Senate seats to control the chamber.
Let’s see… There are more than three open Senate seats, so they must be keying on SD 5 (being vacated by Republican Charles Bishop), SD 9 (Democrat Hinton Mitchem), and SD 13 (Democrat Kim Benefield) as the ones in play.
The two Republican Senate incumbents whose seats are in play must be Paul Sanford (SD 7) and Jim Preuitt (SD 11).
Now the seven Democratic incumbents whose Senate seats are in play… they must be Tom Butler (SD 2), Zeb Little (SD 4), Phil Poole (SD 21), Ted Little (SD 27), Wendell Mitchell (SD 30), and… hmm… a Republican familiar with the situation confirms that the last two are Lowell Barron (SD 8) and Larry Means (SD 10). Those two and Marc Keahey in SD 22 were the threesome I was trying to choose among for the last two spots.
On the state House side… The GOP needs to pick up a net of 8 seats. The Report offers that four open seats held by Democrats are in play in Alabama. They must mean four of these five: HD 8 (being vacated by Bill Dukes), HD 9 (Ron Grantland), HD 26 (Frank McDaniel), HD 85 (Locy Baker) and HD 92 (Seth Hammett). I suppose HD 85 is the one not being included.
The Report also contends that seats held by nine Democratic incumbents are in play. I suppose they mean Mike Curtis (HD 2), Henry White (HD 5), James Fields (HD 12), Ken Guin (HD 14), Jeff McLaughlin (HD 27), Jimmy Martin (HD 42), Lesley Vance (HD 80), Betty Carol Graham (HD 81), and Terry Spicer (HD 91).
No House seats held by Republican incumbents are indicated to be in play though I believe the argument could be made that David Grimes (HD 73) or possibly DuWayne Bridges (HD 38) are as vulnerable as, say, James Fields.
The full report is here in .pdf form. The website for the Republican State Leadership Committee is here.
If you would like to play along with the home version of the game, the 2010 House Elections Directory and Senate Elections Directory may be helpful though the ratings of the districts found there (lean Dem, likely GOP, etc.) are overdue for review.
Larry Means seat should be a real opportunity for the republicans. His vote change on gambling, and the FBI probe will likely be the end of the road for him. The feds are also said to have questioned folks about Means “connections” to Merchants Capital, and his “benefits” to that “connection”! The voters in District 10 may choose to elect someone who doesn’t have that cloud! A real opportunity for the republicans.
Although Democratic nominee Joe Hubbard is a worthy opponent and will be well-financed, I don’t see House District 73 (Montgomery) going to the Democrats after decades in Republican hands. David Grimes should win by a much bigger margin in the general election than he won in the primary (which was razor thin, 70 votes).
Every national tout sheet has Rs gaining 35 to 40 House seats and seven to 10 senate seats in a national climate where Obama is at 50% approval. How do R’s fail to gain big here where Obama is at 35%. I get the argument about local Dems holding their own but the anti obama mood in Bama is more powerful than Turnham, Sparks and company realize.
The Republicans really should worry about Ben Brooks down in Mobile County. By November, his seat will be in serious trouble.
@ Mr. Conservative:
You must be smoking something good b/c Grimes is in trouble. That district is changing and Grimes is a weak Republican. Hubbard is a good Good and it will just depend if he can get the black vote up there.
ALFA doesn’t think HD 12 is in play.
I have lived in Grimes district for 21 years. I do not see Joe Hubbard winning the district even though he may get some support. Grimes is no one’s favorite Republican, but he is still a Republican in a largely white affluent area of Montgomery.
If Grimes is not in trouble, why is he the GOP’s number one defensive race? According to the purse holders in the party, there may not be much of the 2010 warchest for Grimes, because his District has the highest percentage of blacks of any GOP held seat.
It doesn’t help that Grimes in not a reliable vote for Speaker. The GOP’s best shot at keeping this seat was with Walker in the primary. They knew it and invested accordingly. Now, all bets may be off.
Grimes is probably a top defensive race because there are only one or two. Say what you want, but there just aren’t many serious Democratic Party challengers in districts held by Republicans.
Ben Brooks is fine, Democratic Party in Mobile is split 5 ways from Sunday. They’ll never be able to rally together to mount a serious charge on Brooks.
The big issue Del Marsh will have in the Senate if he does get his wish of 18 — the 18 will be in constant turmoil and he will constantly have to deal with deserters (particularly 2 marginal/independent/rebel thinking members). Eighteen won’t even guarantee congressional re-districting because the state senate members in the 2nd district may want to save Bright. Unless Del can grab 20 or 21, his life will be a constant guessing game. And that is not even calculating the Harri Anne wildcard. He is betting a lot of money for a egg shell thin win. He better have some trump cards in his pocket to win the game.
Bright can’t be saved by redistricting. Increase his Black percentage, he loses to a Progressive Democrat in the Primary, decrease his Black percentage, he loses to a Republican in November.
Increase his middle class Montgomery percentage, he wins.
After reviewing the report I’m not so sure how solid their research is, considering the “insider tips” refer to close House/Senate losses by the GOP in “2008.”
Meant to add to previous post that it is a shame that there are not more Democratic Party challengers in Republican districts. This is a reflection on the leadership of the Democratic Party. We need a change in this department.
FireJoeTurnham.com – anyone?
Does anyone have a list of all the runoff winners? or know where I can find that? Any help would be greatly appreciated!
The big issue Del Marsh has is if he will be the GOP choice for pro tem. He may not be Governor Bentley’s . . . .
Anyone know anything about SD 27? Is Whatley strong enough to win?
The Senate Republican Caucus members (elected and prospective new Senators) all agreed at Point Clear a few weeks ago to support the Senator for pro tem that a majority of the Caucus selected. Unless Bentley can move a significant number of GOP Senators the majority of the Caucus will be with Del Marsh.
Therm, Del was a major contributor and supporter of Governor Bentley’s opponent. He’ll move those senators – with the Highway Department if necessary.
A governor elected by a landslide isn’t going to get – or take – any guff from state senators.
Whatley is much too damaged to beat Ted Little. If they’d have gotten a bland, inoffensive Republican like Brian Taylor they might could beat him, but not with a scandal-ridden insider like Whatley.
Whatley gave tons of money to OBama then pouted when they didn’t get him the job they wanted….because Whatley LIED on his resume. And that’s who the Republicans think will beat Ted Little?
Rumor has it that the brilliant Democratic insiders yanked Ted’s funding to try and save Zeb. If true, that could mean trouble for Ted if Whatley does in fact have the support of the Party and the Republican Senators. Never ceases to amaze me how our Democratic leaders try to screw everything up.
AnOn, your rumor is unfounded.
Have to agree with HogWallop that Whatley is damaged goods. He thought he could buy himself an appointment from Obama and when that didn’t happen (because of his own lack of honesty) he went running to Mike Hubbard and said, “I’m all for ethics reform, as long as it doesn’t frown on lying.”
MC..we shall see
Therm, I don’t know if Bentley will back Marsh or not. But if he doesn’t (and is public about it) I just do not see how Marsh can be pro tem. I mean , say Bentley puts out a public statement in November after the election along the lines of “Bentley endorses Beason for Pro Tem” – that would be a tough thing for Del to overcome. Of course, maybe the governor shouldn’t be getting involved in other GOP races and . . .oh wait . . .scratch that . . .
YOu all can talk about Marsh all day long but he has to win a lot of seats. Harrie Anne will NOT vote for him or any Republican for Pro Tem. I am not sure if Blackwell will either. He may vote for himself. The Senate is harder for the Republicans to win than the house.
I think Ted Little needs to get things going over there. Watley is no great prize but he does have R by his name an Ted has the D by his name.
HD 91 will go GOP this year. See you later Terry Spicer!
The Republican establishment finds people with whom they are impressed, and often fail to consider that person’s baggage in the local community where they live. I could give you more than one example where a candidate should win, but the GOP establishment puts the machine behind a selected candidate who is unelectable.
The Party needs to get out of taking sides in primaries
John Killian:
I generally agree with you concerning the party staying out of primaries. I do, however, believe the party has a responsibility to get involved where a steal candidate, who is actually a democrat or supports democratic positions, slips into a race, such as the ’08 school board races. I also have no problem with the party stepping in, as it did this year with the True Republican PAC, and shinning the light of truth on organizations who are nothing more than fronts for democratic bosses.
Nevertheless, as a Byrne supporter, I felt very uneasy toward the end of the runoff when many of our GOP elected officials and several of our GOP executive board members endorsed candidates. While I supported Byrne, I also felt Dr. Bentley was nothing other than a loyal, conservative Republican. Now that the primary is over, I fully endorse and support Dr. Bentley and will work to make sure he is our next governor.
JD says: “Bright can’t be saved by redistricting. Increase his Black percentage, he loses to a Progressive Democrat in the Primary…”
*
Do you really think Bright would lose in a Dem primary?
So how bad is Zeb in trouble then?????
Bright is not going to have to worry about a redistricting issue. He will not be around after this election if he continues to make stupid mistakes like saying Alabama and other states should not try to block certain aspects of the health care bill as they should “wait and see” because “many parts of it are good”; and saying that he does not agree with the Arizona immigration law in a national publication, then backtracks and changes his answer for local (Alabama) publications; and finally, telling folks that the Speaker of the House is “only ceremonial” and this his vote was not a big deal – in fact it was a “no brainer….she supported my campaign.” I mean jeez…what is up with this guy? He counts on an uninformed electorate. Unfortunately, he may get just that. Wake up folks!
2010. And don’t forget that it was Bright, as a member of the Ag Committee, who nominated Tom Whatley to be head of USDA in Alabama. Why? Because his wife, who is bosom buddies with Sue Bell Cobb, told him to.
And we know how that ended. Even though Whatley gave Obama $4,600, he discovered that lying on your resume’ is frowned upon even by Obama’s White House. Of course, given that Whatley is now a “born again” Republican, maybe this doesn’t matter.
I don’t know much about Whatley, but even I all of that is true, he’s still better than Ted Little. Ted is a waste of a taxpayer-funded paycheck. Please someone make the case for all of the great things he can do for Alabama.
Grimes will likely be saved by the Republican wave. But he is unpopular and if he wins, he should be out in the 2014 primary.
2014, is a distant future but my large prediction is a big revolt in the Republican primary across the state led by the Tea Party.
Yes Zeb Little is in that much trouble, especially since in that Senate district the Republican candidate is excellent, Dr. Paul Bussman-clearly the best candidate won the primary.
What I found interesting is the lack of any mention of Roger Bedford. Granted not the strongest Republican candidate running against him but it is a race that needs to be considered.
Bedford has a lock on his seat. He is quite good at delivering the pork and has enough cash (about $650k) to do multiple saturation ad bombing campaigns. His opponent has no reported campaign donations or expenses.
You don’t have to be a national political pundit to realize that Brooks is in trouble in south Mobile (SD 35). Brooks is still strong in business community, but he lacks evangelical support. In fact, Brooks is aligned in south Mobile with a social justice group (South Bay Alliance) that is an outreach of Alabama Arise. South Bay also did propoganda media follwing Katrina for Al Jazeera Television. A lot of traditional conservatives in the area have taken note. In contrast, his Democratic opponent has ties to local church leaders and he lives in the most Republican area of the district. Brooks only won in ’06 by 400 votes. Brooks’ arrogance and I am better than you attitude will cost him hundreds of traditionally Republican votes.