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Besides the obvious list of those who won and lost in the primary runoffs last night, who else had good nights or bad nights?
Good Night
- Paul Hubbert – Long called “the real governor of Alabama” for his extraordinary clout, is there any question that Hubbert and the influence he wields on behalf of AEA’s members knocked his nemesis Bradley Byrne off his message and out of the nomination?
- Alabama women in Congress – Republican Martha Roby and Democrat Terri Sewell have the opportunities to become the first Alabama women elected to Congress in regular elections. Roby will have to beat freshman Democratic incumbent Bobby Bright in AL-02. Sewell is virtually certain to defeat Republican Don Chamberlain in the strongly Democratic 7th Congressional District.
- Scott Beason – The conservative state Senator supported three winners in tightly contested GOP primary runoffs: Bentley in the Governor’s race, John McMillan for Agriculture Commissioner, and Clay Scofield in Senate District 9.
- New election reporting system from the SoS office – Kudos to Secretary of State Beth Chapman who is moving forward with a new election reporting system expected to be fully operational come November after a test drive last night.
- Alabama gambling interests – A Democratic candidate for governor who wants the people of the state to vote on the gambling issue is now matched with a Republican opponent who says he wants the same thing (though Bentley ultimately proposes far less than Sparks does). That’s a far cry from what gambling interests have gotten from the current administration.
- Democratic legislative candidates – With Bentley as the nominee, AEA is likely to put fewer resources into the Governor’s race than it would have with Byrne. That means more are available for the legislative races, and that helps AEA-friendly candidates.
- Glen Zorn – The defeat of Alfa buddy Dorman Grace for the GOP Ag Commissioner nomination not only continues Alfa’s tough election season (losing with Troy King and George Wallace, Jr earlier in the primary) but gives Zorn at least a shot at recreating the alchemy that twice propelled Ron Sparks to victory as Ag Commissioner, i.e. the formula being “Democratic base + ALFA.”
Bad Night
- Ron Sparks – The AEA and Paul Hubbert, reaffirmed as the most powerful political force in the state, are unlikely to help Sparks so much by going all in against the Republican nominee Bentley like they would have against Byrne. No doubt AEA and its chief Hubbert would prefer Sparks to Bentley, but they have no reason to burn bridges with Bentley in the general election.
- Business as usual at the state GOP – Bentley and the party establishment will have to mend some strained relations. The party establishment came out hard against Bentley especially in the last days of the campaign. GOP faithful find it hard to swallow that Bentley benefited from the efforts of GOP bogeyman Paul Hubbert. Several Republicans have noted to the Parlor how personally unpleasant members of Bentley’s campaign were during the recount after the primary election. The unpleasantness of Team Bentley was both a product of and a contributor to the distrust between the two camps. One GOP’er put it more dramatically to the Parlor, saying that if Bentley wins the nomination, “It will be like Bastille Day.”
- Progressive Democrats – Progressive Democrats had little to celebrate. Many preferred Giles Perkins to James Anderson for the AG nomination. The GOP runoff for governor offered no real prizes to progressive Dems, but many preferred the closet Episcopalian Byrne to the social positions espoused by Bentley. Those that preferred Smoot to Sewell (and many did) in AL-07 received an extra kick last night. On the plus side, this is Alabama, so at least they are used to disappointment.
- Business Council of Alabama – BCA’s tremendous investment in Byrne came up snake eyes. Both general election candidates for governor potentially hold grudges against the organization that will be seeking to build bridges with one or the other. Others are in the same boat (for example, the Alabama Retail Association comes to mind) but BCA is big enough that it probably has that boat’s rudder.
- Mike Hubbard – The ALGOP state Chairman has enjoyed a very close relationship with Gov. Bob Riley. Now, no matter what, come November Hubbard has a very different relationship with the next Governor than he has with the current one (or would have had with Byrne). While we’re at it, the likelihood that Hubbard could be Speaker of the House next quadrennium takes a hit – partly because (as noted above) an AEA-friendly legislature for the next quadrennium has become a bit more likely, partly because if the GOP does take the House it wouldn’t take many Republicans unhappy with Hubbard to throw the selection of Speaker to someone else, and partly because of the aforementioned strained relationships between gubernatorial nominee Bentley and the party establishment whom Hubbard represents.
- Bob Riley’s coattails – Long noted for having short coattails, Gov. Riley stuck his neck out when he expressed support for Bradley Byrne to be his successor. If Riley could have made a difference at all, the effort here was too late. It’s a different verse, but it sounds like the same song.
- Viral marketing – Eh… If it has a future, it’s with mainstream candidates who are now ignoring it to focus on more conventional political media. Attention-grabbing and provocative internet ads weren’t enough for longshot candidates Rick Barber and, before him, Dale Peterson.
- Rothell’s Package Store on the Etowah/DeKalb County line – Rothell’s (aka “County Line Beverages”) has gotten a tremendous portion (maybe 2/3?) of its business from Collinsville, just 4 miles up the road in dry DeKalb County. Last night, Collinsville voted to go wet, 71% to 29%.
Too mixed to tell
- Alabama Tea Partiers – The group probably had a hand in Bentley’s victory, and 40% for a newcomer (Rick Barber) in the AL-02 GOP runoff against a campaign veteran (Martha Roby) is not nothing, but the political establishment in the state hasn’t exactly thrown open the doors to welcome the Tea Party movement. Despite sound and fury – and the candidacies of Barber and Les Phillip (in AL-5) – there is not yet evidence that Tea Partiers are ready to kick down the doors to establish a place for themselves among the players.
Let’s not overlook that Bentley should be sending flowers to state Treasurer Kay Ivey. The common assertion is that many voters moved to Bentley after being put off by the primary slugfest between Bradley Byrne and Tim James. If that is true, then if Ivey had not stepped out of the governor’s race and into the Lt. Governor’s race, she would have picked up some of the votes and Bentley is unlikely to slip into the runoff at all.
While he’s at it, he can send something over to Paul Finebaum as well.
I am grateful to the friends of the Parlor who offered their input to the list.
2010 Big List
2010 Senate Elections
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Mr. C,
not sure if this fits the mold, but didn’t we hear something about Hubbert agreeing not to oppose Byrne (of all people) once Byrne switched to the Republican party? State School board race, maybe? (not being sarcastic, just really don’t remember the details).
Not sure if that equates to soft support for a democrat, but there’s one example of restraint that benefitted a Republican candidate. See, Paul Hubbert/AEA can do more with, and for Republicans, than Paul Hubbert/Dem. party co-chair.
Barber is nuts, but he did the right thing. Roby is talking about Pelosi non-stop, but the truth is that the two of them would probably become friends. Remember, Roby spent all those years in NY studying music at one of the most liberal schools in the country.
Hi Ethics Please,
I believe you misunderstood what I said. I didn’t say that Sewell was more or less progressive than Smoot. I said that there are self-described progressives who supported Smoot. That is undeniably true. I see no bias in saying as much.
Thanks,
Danny
Your right that Ivey getting out the race looks larger now than it did at the time.
Publius, I’m glad you get “it”.
Bentley’s gambling approach was designed to appeal to both the pro- and anti-gambling community. Once gambling becomes the major issue of the fall campaign (don’t kid yourself-it will be), both the pro-gambling and anti-gambling forces in this state are going to want Bentley to be far more explicit about his position. Either way, he will alienate many of those who voted for him Tuesday. Read the al.com post board sometime. You will see some Bentley supporters praise him for allowing a gambling vote. Other pro-Bentley supporters praise him for being staunchly anti-gambling. Many of the Baptists in Blount County who voted for Bentley and thought Bradley Byrne didn’t believe the Bible are going to be a bit upset if good Dr. Bentley doesn’t come out 4-square against it gambling once it becomes THE issue of the fall campaign.
Oddly, Sparks’ position on gambling allows him to get both to the left and the right of Bentley on gambling. I wonder when the Huckabee team will figure that one out. I wonder when it will dawn on some of you.
Danny, AEA was going to spend a truck load of money for Ron Sparks REGARDLESS of whether Byrne or Bentley was the nominee. You will see that soon enough. AEA wants gambling PERIOD, and they realize Sparks is their best chance for it. Yes, the lottery was voted down several years ago, but it was not because people didn’t support it. It was voted down because of the squabble about what to do with the revenue. Sparks avoids this problem by explicitly stating what he wants do with the money.
Totally agree Avery. AEA wants gambling b/c they see it as free money in a struggling economy (with income tax receipts barely scraping by). Proves the point that they don’t care about children or the poor. What a great example of a Democrat organization – oh whoops – I’m sure they’re not now that Paul Hubbert has resigned from his position with the Democrat party (note sarcasm).
AverySF, I must agree you are making some good points. I just think that the Bentley who came from nowhere to make the primary and then win the nomination over some pretty strong and well-funded candidates is going to figure out a way to navigate the shoals you have described.
Bentley just beat the preferred, overwhelmingly supported candidate of The GOP Establishment, the hand-picked and publicly endorsed successor of Bob Riley by 12 points in the Republican primary.
And you guys are already talking about how he “can’t handle” this or “he’ll get into trouble” over that.
I think he’ll do just fine, and the evidence before us supports my conclusion.
Do I really need to remind you all that Bentley was immeasurably aided by the $2 million in nuclear-attack ads against his opponent?
If Bentley had $2 million dollars worth of ads run against him telling the state he didn’t believe in the Bible, he would have lost. Bob and Sue Baptist in Anniston, Cullman, and Jasper would NOT have voted for him. Look at where Bentley won. He won in the areas particularly susceptible to this type of thinking.
Another reminder- In the RUNOFF, Bentley (when you combine his own money and donations with the AEA anti-Byrne money) matched his “establishment” opponent dollar for dollar.
Bentley ran a good campaign (the no salary gimmick was clever and doctors have built in advantages over lawyers), but please don’t fall into the trap of thinking the man, and his team, were geniuses.
If we really had Bentleymania in this state, he would have gotten more than 265,000 votes. And he managed that against the non-Bible believing Bradley Byrne.
Avery, denial isn’t a river in Egypt . . . .
By the way, in Byrne’s two home counties of Mobile and Baldwin, he (Byrne) got 51% and 52% respectively . . .I guess Mobile and Baldwin are inhabited by Fundamentalist rubes that Byrne looks down on also . . .
AverySF @ 2:11 pm,
You are the first person I’ve encountered who believes that AEA will go as strong for Sparks (or against his opponent) if Bentley is the GOP nominee as they would if Byrne is the nominee. Perhaps you’re right, it will be hard to know for sure, but fwiw my experience tells me that you are in a decided minority. :)
It sure will be interesting to watch it all unfold.
Thanks,
Danny
Any thoughts on why Byrne did the best in Jefferson County – where the media market is the largest?
Danny, the resignation of Hubbert as Dem party chair makes your pick of Ron Sparks as biggest loser all the more interesting.
Actually Byrne was at his best in Montgomery – home of political insiders . . .and Lee County – home of the Big Insider
Bentley carried 59 out of 67 counties. He carried more counties vs. Bradley than Bob Riley did against Roy Moore.
OOPs – that should have been 56 counties carried by Bentley – dyslexic today . . .but still well more than Bob Riley carried against Moore in 2006
The Byrne campaigns obsession with calling out AEA is on the verge of being bested by the Bentley campaigns obsession with doing the same to the State GOP and their own creation of “the establishment”
Give it a rest, you won and Republicans are ready to support your campaign. So what if folks didn’t support you, be adults and work it out instead of acting like children.
Some of the people around Bentley are hurting his image as a nice guy. Which I believe that he is a nice guy.
JoeBob: I can see your point. And maybe Bentley is trying to play both sides of the street. Fancy a politician doing that to get elected. But I just laugh when I hear folks insinuate that this strait-laced, conservative guy is a closet liberal and gambling advocate with a history of supporting gambling. Where is that history, specifically, as in the specific actions he’s taken, votes in the Legislature, etc., to support gambling or crawl into bed with McGregor, etc.? Too many people have too many conspiracy theories about what’s going on here. And 99.999999 percent of ALL conspiracy theories are bunk (Lee Harvey Oswald acting alone shot JFK, for example).
Joe Bob and Mr. Conservative: I’m tired of hearing “we’re going to have another Phenix City, we’re going to have another Phenix City.” I don’t think gambling is healthy for society, and again if it ever does come to a vote I’m not going to give in to my libertarian impulses, I’m going to vote no. I only mentioned my libertarian impulses for discussion purposes. But Phenix City was 50 or 60 years ago in a different world. Bringing that up now is hyperbole and a scare tactic.
Carolyn: Revisiting my libertarian impulses, it’s the concept that I have no right whatsoever to tell you or anyone else how to paddle your own personal “canoe,” just like neither you nor anyone else has the right to tell me how to paddle my own personal “canoe,” even if that paddling is done in self-destructive ways and regardless of whether it brings the social safety net into play. Maybe that kind of strict libertarianism is not conducive to a functioning society. And again I’m just trying to provoke discussion here. But that’s the argument that could be made here. And as far as public corruption … the spectre of that is why I didn’t vote for Siegelman’s lottery (I had no moral objections to it) and is probably the main reason I’d vote against legalizing electronic bingo, etc., if that opportunity arose (I’ve said I detest gambling, and it’s unhealthy for society, but that opposition again has nothing to do with the morality of it).
Danny, just to clarify: AEA will in not attack Bentley the way they would have if Byrne would have been the nominee. If I gave you that impression, then I apologize.
However, the entire AEA apparatus is going to push for the gambling proposals supported by Sparks. Watch the AEA Journal in the coming weeks: gambling will appear like kudzu. Gambling will be portrayed as the solution to every fiscal problem this state has (at least according the AEA narrative).
Hubbert is clever. He knows how to lead his organization. The Bentley-to-Sparks transition will not be sudden. There will be subtle little digs at Bentley over the coming weeks as Hubbert establishes the gambling/Sparks narrative. (I can already see the pro- Bentley posting on this forum: “see he wasn’t Hubbert’s puppet after all”). But by October, there will be absolutely no doubt as to which candidate AEA is backing and backing overwhelming.
For those of you who think AEA is going to remain mostly neutral or somewhat evenhanded in the fall now that good Dr. Bentley is the nominee, you have been played.
This is a whole NEW contest now. Frankly, I have no idea who will win it, but it is going to be closer election than many of you suspect.
Five months ago, most did not think we would see Robert Bentley, Republican NOMINEE for Governor. Conventional wisdom held that couldn’t happen. May I suggest the ‘Ron Sparks can’t win because he is a dadburn Democrat’ conventional wisdom might be equally wrong, especially when you have a Republican candidate who promises not to throw a single punch.
Polling right now means nothing. At this point, it is about as useless as polling the GOP primary back in March.
Commonsensical, you can say you are tired of Phenix City! Phenix City! but how is that different in kind (as opposed to in degree) from what is going on in Greene County and Macon County. Local officials (sheriffs, judges and county commissioners) all bought and paid for by the casino operators. We have had a killing yet but the Macon County sheriff threatend that blood would be spilled if state troopers came into his county.
Phenix City was a cesspool. If I’m not mistaken, the Mafia had a piece of that. People died and ended up in the river. There literally was white slavery going on. I think McGregor is pond scum as I said, but I don’t think he’s in the same universe as what went on in Phenix City, or electronic bingo’s in the same universe as what went on there. Is it completely impossible that it could breed corruption of that extent? No, it’s not completely impossible, but I don’t think it’s likely. As far as the Greene and Macon County sheriffs … they are advocating lawlessness and deserve impeachment, although I seriously doubt there was going to be any shooting. Big talk doesn’t impress me. But are they actually “bought and paid for” by the casino operators, or are they responding to the fact that so many people in their counties have had their livelihoods ripped away by the casino closures. One could say those folks are reaping the whirlwind of basing their livelihoods on something that was illegal. And the folks in Dothan in particular took advantage of
folks by building and hiring first and checking on the legality later. The folks I feel sorry for are in Greene County, because whether it should have been this way or not, the reality is that without the casino jobs, that place is like the Third World.
I really hate to join the bullet-point recitations, but …
I speak as someone who has never actually set foot in a casino, but who doesn’t care if regulated and taxed casinos open in Alabama. My only concern is with whether we need the revenue, and whether social costs will exceed social benefits. (Those can vary from vice to vice; I think costs clearly exceed benefits in the reality of prostitution, but not with alcohol or gaming.)
That said, the use of the historical example of Phenix City as a rationale for not having gaming is not persuasive. Phenix City did not have corruption and murder because there was prostitution, gambling and alcohol there. They had the corruption and murder because these activities were illegal in Phenix City. (And across the Hooch in Columbus, where most of the customers were stationed at Fort Benning. Columbus, being a bigger city, was better able to police the vices.) The only way to satisfy the market demand for these trades in Phenix City was to pay off cops, judges and prosecutors, and to deal with competition threats with cold steel and hot lead. This is exactly what happened nationally with the production and importation of alcohol during Prohibition. Once Prohibition was repealed, the Mob was largely forced out of the alcohol business by market forces, except for a few bootlegging operations. Even those were largely the result of either large “dry” territories (like in Alabama), or confiscatory levels of taxation.
Rick Barber can now go back to his chosen profession of being a bartender at a run down pool hall-
PubliusIX–what’s going on in Greene County (until last week) and Macon County IS illegal as well (like in Phenix City), but the local officials have been paid off (and due to local pressure) to turn a blind eye to it. I don’t see how that is different than Phenix City. Also, how do we know that the mob/mafia is NOT involved in these places. I have heard that the machines are leased from the Russian mob. (I have no verification of that, I admit.)
I agree that we might not have gangland slayings like in PC, but I just attribute that to the mob/mafia becoming more politically correct, putting on a pin-stripe suit and choosing to do their dirty work through corrupting the democratic process and Democratic officeholders (for the most part).
I believe more in Jefferson’s view that each state is like an “experiment lab” and should be able to choose for themselves their policies and character. If Alabama chooses to go without casinos or lottery, you can move to Mississippi or LA. (for casinos) or Tenn. or GA for lotteries. (If you don’t want to just drive there on the weekends).
Alabama is different and I love its differences—tax revenue “losses” notwithstanding. I have never thought that more tax revuene is the answer to all our problems anyway ESPECIALLY in the area of education.
PubliusIX,
Phenix City occurred well after prohibition was rescinded. It wasn’t some italian mob import. It was southern gentlemen much like Milton that took over a town.
Moreover, the activities were effectively legal within the Phenix City. Corruption and murder don’t occur merely because there are illegal activities. Legalizing a product does not magically cure the social costs.
Sure, legalized gambling won’t result in Alabama being put under martial law. But, it will create big bosses that will spread corruption to the Alabama legislature as long as they can. We’ll have multiple Paul Hubberts instead of one.
If we are going to legalize gambling, it should be allowed everywhere. No one’s backyard should be immune and no one should be unfairly kept out of the market. The kind of people arguing for gambling today don’t want that result. They want gambling only for their facilities. Their legislature lackeys will then only pass amendments that reward those already in the market.
The legislature is incapable of passing a fair constitutional amendment because they are always bought off by the casino bosses. All of this is beared out by the gambling bills that failed in the last session. I have no doubt we can defeat an unfair amendment. That is how the last one was defeated and that is how this one will be defeated.
Phenix city is an example of how people become dependent on gambling and ignore the improper influence exerted by casino bosses on government. If we allow gambling, we’ll have more unfair government influence than ever before.
You’re right. Byrne did best in Montgomery, then Jefferson County. Not Lee or Baldwin or Mobile. I just thought that was odd and wondered if anyone had a theory.
On gambling: my point was that our system now protects so many people through the safety nets of federal and state programs that even if libertarians are not against gambling for moral or social reasons you should be against it for fiscal reasons.
Gambling breeds corruption and crime. It’s a provable fact. We’re all full up here.
Carolyn – no. From official AP results, Byrne got 53% in Jefferson and 59% in Lee. Lee was certainly Byrne’s 2nd best county with any substantial population.
I am counting number of votes – you are counting percentage of votes. We’re splitting hairs. I just thought he did better in Jefferson County than some anticipated and wondered if there was a reason. Apparently not.
The counties Byrne carried, in the descending order of his percentage showing therein, were Bullock, Montgomery, Lee, Madison, Barbour, Jefferson, Russell, Lowndes, Baldwin, Limestone, Mobile and Elmore.
I feel that Mr. Hubbard being the vice chair of the democratic party and head of the AEA was not a good thing. In my experience, the Education Association is really nothing more than a lobbying effort for educators. To me, for Mr. Hubbard to hold both positions was a conflict of interest. Of course, in Alabama, this seems to be more of the norm than the exception. I am of the firm conviction that since Riley and Tyson have taken over the state, that little things like due process and the right to trial by your peers has literally been thrown out the window.
Ol’ Fart, Representative Mike Hubbard may be shocked to learn from you that he is the vice chair of the democratic party and head of the AEA. Surely you meant Dr. Paul Hubbert?
@JoseyWales @sally
We tried to recruit David to work for us, but he obviously did not. He was released on Saturday and he already accepted a position with another campaign on Monday. He also didn’t sound sour (publicly or privately) about the situation, unlike Sally Albright (sic. @TimJames2014) and Steven Berry. If he had made a statement, we would have pounced on it.
If that FB attack page doesn’t kill Sally and Steven’s careers, it should.
I’ve been in politics for 21 years. That is the single most unprofessional thing I’ve ever seen and I have seen some ridiculous stuff.
Why would any candidate hire someone who -if things don’t work out – might publicly attack you?
No. You do not do that. No matter how wronged you feel, you don’t turn on former clients publicly. Ever.