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Republican gubernatorial candidate Dr. Robert Bentley released results of an internal poll done by Dresner Wickers from May 19-20 of likely GOP primary voters:
Dresner-Wickers Tracking Poll Results 5/19-5/20Robert Bentley 18%Tim James 20%Bradley Byrne 27%Roy Moore 18%James Potts 2%Not sure/Refused 15%Candidate Favorable/Unfavorable RatingsRobert Bentley 38%-4%Tim James 42%-24%Bradley Byrne 37%-15%Roy Moore 47%-30%
According to the press release, Dresner Wickers polled 405 likely GOP primary voters on May 19 and 20. The margin of error is +/- 4.5%.
Though this is an internal poll, I think it does reflect a pretty accurate picture of where many of us think the race stands.
Would like to see the cross-tabs on the 2% who are for Potts!
I would doubt Bentley is that high. But the important part is that it shows its James in the fight with Moore for the runoff and not Byrne.
And considering Moore’s folks are motivated more than anyone – if James is only 2% ahead and is now heading south that’s not a good place for James. Further, any overstatement of Bentley probably came primarily from Moore. And Byrne is not going to stop hitting Tim.
And if Tim has not yet bought himself a place in runoff then another million in the last week will probably not do the trick.
I aree with Princeliberty. Moore’s folks will show up on June 1 – not sure that all the attention James has received with his ads will mean a turn out of voters for him or not. Byrne will be in a run off…..will it be James or Moore with him? We shall see. But Moore’s supporters are more motivated to show up.
I have thought for a while that the only beneficiary of the James/Byrne slugfest would be Dr. Bentley. This is evidenced by his 4% unfavorable. I have worked a couple of campaigns(paid and unpaid) and have NEVER seen an unfavorable that low coupled with a relatively high favorable.
Also interesting that while TJ’s favorables have gone up since “Langauge” his unfavorables have gone up quicker. And BB’s unfavorables ae much lower than one would expect given the month long Tim James/AEA/True Republican/Paul Hubbert series of relentless attacks.
Bentley’s only hope for making the runoff is that Moore continues his slow but steady decline and voters tire of the mudslinging between James and Byrne.
This is very similar to the 2008 GOP POTUS primaries where Romney and Huckabee beat each other to a bloody pulp and voters turned to the older more distinguished candidate that stayed above the fray… Good news for the GOP this time around is the AD and RS are no Barack Obamas
I agree with most all of what YoungGOP said, with the exception that I think Bentley’s only chance of getting in a runoff is an extremely low turnout, which I don’t see happening. Turnout will probably be low, but not low enough.
As for the GOP POTUS comparison, it is a bit of a stretch to compare Bentley with McCain. McCain got the nomination because of the crossover/independent vote, not because of the mudslinging between Romney and Huckabee. And Bentley has never run for any office outside of Tuscaloosa. His ship sailed when he wasn’t allowed to use Dr. on the ballot. That was his only chance at traction.
Anyone else notice that Bill Johnson’s name is missing from this poll?
Either they didn’t poll him, he didn’t get a single vote, or for some reason they didn’t want to release his numbers.
Bentley probably does not even have the name ID to have a 38% favorable. This is his people remember. The most suspect part of that is the numbers on himself.
Tim has peaked already is heading south and will only lose ground between now and June 1.
I would think Bentley’s name ID would be rather high. He has run through about $1 million in TV and Radio ads statewide for about two months
Its not that easy to build name ID esp. in this day when people are really tuned out from commercials. When commericals are trying to build on almost no ID and are supported by little or no free media and are swamped by other commericials of candidates – the building goes slow.
If you look at this poll – Bentley’s name ID appears to be close to that Byrne – no way could that be the case.
I tell you, you folks underestimate James Potts at your own peril. James Potts is going to come out of nowhere and be the man to beat in this election. In fact, a runoff won’t even be necessary – he’ll easily get 50 percent on election day.
[Extreme sarcasm]
Okay, sorry, but on a serious note – I do believe that Bentley has made the most ground of any candidate, mainly thanks to his stellar TV ads. He has stayed focused on the issues that matter – jobs – and steered away from the predictable “guns & gays” social issues-obsessed message that most Republican candidates throw out every election cycle. Not that those issues aren’t important to us, but after awhile, the same rhetoric tends to fall on deaf ears. As the doctor aptly puts it, “all the Republican candidates for Governor are pro-life. We all like to hunt and fish. Most of us believe that the Bible is God’s Word.” While other candidates have talked about creating jobs, he has bypassed the cheap talk and actually done something about it by passing the Re-Employment Act. Jobs are the number one issue in this election – don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. That resonates with voters.
I have no idea how the primary will turn out – it is indeed wide open, if you ask me. I believe Byrne is a lock, and so it’s a matter of whether Bentley, Moore, or James will make the runoff. Moore’s base of support is unwavering. His core supporters aren’t going anywhere, but then again, his base isn’t growing, either. Anyone who is going to vote for Moore, has already made up his or her mind to do so. James – like someone else noted, it’s unclear whether the now-infamous “language” ad will be his destiny or doom.
Bentley seems to me to be the “catch-all” candidate in this race. He will get the votes of Republicans and Independents who think that: Byrne is too RINOish, Moore is unelectable, and James is too focused on issues that most folks aren’t concerned with.
It’s going to be interesting!
Thunder: I’m intrigued with your comment that Byrne is “too RINOish”. Aside from his switch from Dem to Republican years ago, I can’t find anything to remotely justify that.
He’s do doubt the strongest student/teacher advocate in the race, but he’s also the strongest opponent to AEA’s democrat union bosses, something not one other candidate has had the grit to say or do.
Additionally, he has strong positions on ethics reform, PAC-to-PAC, lobbying, charter schools, ridiculous tenure laws, pass-through pork, double-dipping legislators… and the beat goes on.
I’ll admit that he has been rather outspoken about some of the off-the-wall, red neck comments by James, but to suggest he’s a RINO is baseless.
Guess Bentley didn’t include Johnson in the poll because it might end up like this one:
http://www.fox20.com/subindex/news/alabama
Good analysis by Young GOP and Thunder (Dan, I think Thunder is saying that the RINOish label may stick to Byrne with some people because the AEA ads will have some impact–not that Byrne is, in fact, too RINOish)
I agree with the conventional wisdom above, barring some major scandel, Byrne is in the run-off and it will be extremely close beween James and Moore as to who takes second–I say too close to call now because the question so greatly pivots on turn-out (GOTV) and not so much the popularity of the candidate in polling–the fact that this primary comes a day after a major get-of-town school-is-out summer holiday makes the turn-out question even more difficult to predict (for me at least).
Anonymous, if we believed all of the non-scientific online polls then we would currently have President Ron Paul
Dan – just to clarify, I’m not saying I personally feel Byrne is too “RINOish,” – I’d be satisfied with him as Gov, and I’m as conservative as they come – but that’s just what I think the Moore and James voters feel about him, as a whole.
Anonymous – Yeah, I know. Any poll that shows Bill Johnson neck-and-neck with Bradley Byrne is about as reliable as a TV from Family Dollar. A person can vote as many times as they want in those type polls, or at least it’s very easy to inflate one’s numbers.
If it’s so easy to inflate the numbers, then why aren’t the other candidates inflating theirs? While they’re not scientific, to me they give an indication of grassroots turnout ability.
http://www.fox20.com/subindex/news/alabama
While dr bentley isn’t going to make the runoff, and in spite of the fact he drank the AEA koolaid on charter schools, whatever republican that ends up being governor would be crazy not to appoint Bentley as head of state medicaid or DHR. BENTLEY would be an asset to Alabama and shouldn’t end up on the sidelines.