Posted by Public Strategy Associates released a poll this morning from Baselice & Associates that polled likely voters in the Republican primary on the governor and AG races. The poll, not commissioned by any candidate, had 1005 respondents and a margin of error of +/-3.1%.
Bradley Byrne and Tim James are essentially tied at 24% and 23% respectively after the recent surge from James. Roy Moore is at 18%, which is about where he’s been in every poll this season. Dr. Bentley weighs in at 12%, fading after an apparent surge of his own.
The real eye-opener in the poll is the Attorney General race where Luther Strange leads the incumbent Troy King 50%-25% in the race for the GOP nomination.
Get the press release here and a breakdown of some data from the pollster here in pdf form at the Public Strategy Associates website.
Check back in… we’ll have more on this.
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Well…debunks Tim’s ad saying Byrne is last in poll. This now makes 100% of Independent Polls that Byrne has been in the lead on…
My mouth is agape re: AG numbers.
Garbage Bham – this poll showed Bradley with 27% in Februarty and James with single digits. THIS SAME POLL. Byrne is dying on the vine and James is surging – in a Bradley-friendly poll.
The AG numbers are suspicious.
This entire thing makes NO sense what so ever. It’s a cooked poll obviously.
Interesting on Strange and King race.
One observation on the governor’s race. Bryne’s people have been spending the last two days really been pumping up interest in this poll for the last two days on Twitter – before the results were announced.
I not claiming this poll was done in cooperation with the Byrne campaign, but the way their guys were pushing this one, it certainly gives that impression.
Just sayin’…
I think the ads against Bradley are losing their effectiveness. As people learn who they are from they will become a positive for Byrne… at least that is my opinion
Also, folks almost everyone on doc’s has already made up their mind who they are supporting… please quit trying to spin stuff. Go to al.com, or local papers. you will get much more bang for your buck
BhamGOP are you serious? Really???? You think Byrne is happy with a 3 point drop in a poll that has seen James’ support TRIPLE since February?
There is no question who has the momentum.
If Byrne was pushing intertest in a poll that showed him losing support with James surging, it would be interesting to see how bad Byrne is doing in his own internal polls.
Byrne is losing.
Here’s a significant number: if you combine 1st and 2nd choices James leades Byrne beyond the margin of error – James leads in a runoff based on that. In this poll which is considerd pro-Bradley.
The real problem for Bradley Byrne in a runnoff against Tim James according to this poll is that James is second choice of a much larger percentage of Roy Moore voters.
Byrne – gone from first to near last? Right, Tim.
Byrne has endured a 1 million dollar negative campaign hit from AEA and still leads. That say a lot in my opinion. I think the ads have had their effect and now it is being made clear that Tim James was in collusion with the AEA. That will hurt Tim as things progress. However, it is obvious things are very tight. In terms of the AG race, wow. Not sure what to say except go Luther, go!
More to come.
They polled all the way down to PSC and the local Senate race.
Seeing the AG numbers, my first thought was TK seemed to behaving a good couple weeks (oil spill) and maybe this is old data. But the survey dates are May 10-11, and not much has changed since then. While this poll is not funded by a campaign, it is funded by “a Montgomery political strategy, media and public relations firm.” OK, well who are their clients? Maybe oversampling a region to make a given candidate for governor look good/bad inadvertently made the AG numbers wacky.
Still, it would take a lot of “cooking” to make a competitive race look like a 25 point blowout. Other internal polls I’ve seen put the gap at 12+ points for LS and undecideds probably break for him, so I think TK is heading to a 15-20 point loss.
Looks like Tim James is using the same people that Uncle Miltie/Ronnie Gilley used to post comments all over the place…
James’ numbers have tripled(!) in a pro-Byrne poll. No way Byrne can look at this and do anything but recoil.
I’m not sure exactly how “independent” this poll is. Public Strategy Associates doesn’t work for any gubernatorial candidates – at present. But they did work for Robert Bentley who ended his relationship with them last year over questions of “conflict of interest.” Bentley apparently didn’t like the fact that PSA works under contract for the state GOP and Mike Hubbard – and Bentley believes that the state GOP is openly pushing for Bradley Byrne in the contested primary. If this poll is pro-Byrne, there’s a rationale for that line of thought.
Anony – under contract with the state GOP? I sign all our contracts, and I’m not aware of any contract between us and ALGOP.
And for everyone else, how is this a pro-Byrne poll? I’m not following the logic. As Brian on FlashPointBlog.com mentioned, this poll shows James & Bentley with the most movement from the last poll we did in February.
[...] Public Strategy Associates Releases Independent Polling in GOP Gov & AG Races [...]
Uh-oh Brent. Anonymous posters here HATE to be confronted with facts.
I don’t think the numbers in the AG race are indicative of what will happen on June 1. King should get a bump from the oil disaster. He has received a great deal of good publicity on his dealings with other Attorneys General and the representatives of BP.
As far as the governor race, it will be interesting to see who can continue to pump money into ads. As long as Tim James is a contender, he will continue to pump his fortune into media buys. James’ PR team has done well recently. The sex offender ad definitely was effective.
Hopefully Byrne has enough money to keep on the defensive against James and the AEA. It would be a shame to not have enough money to fund the runoff.
Bradley Byrne continues to have a lead among those that consider themselves “Liberal” while Tim James leads among “Very Conservative.” Maybe Byrne should try being nicer to AEA to get more of the liberal vote.
As for Brent, who do you think you are coming here on this site and posting under your real name telling us these facts. This is a blog site we come here under fake names and spread lies and innuendo and don’t worry with the facts. This is a Pro-Byrne poll because we the anonymous posters say it is. That is how the world works and you need to accept that, with your real name and facts.
My question is, why is Public Strategy Associates even bothering with a poll like this?? …Don’t Brent Bechanan and Jack Campbell have better things to do?? Maybe they should just stick with making cutesy commercials, not posting on Doc’s, and polling for the candidates’ races they are actually working on…none of which are statewide anymore as far as I know….
Pre-election polls are tailor made for political junkies and would-be political junkies. The only poll that really matters is the one taken at polling places on election day.
All I can say, Anonymous, is you don’t know what the hell you’re talking about about. If you can afford to do a poll, we’d love to see the results.
Jack,
Can you clarify page 8 of the poll where it seems to show 43% undecided as of date of this poll whereas on page 3 it shows 21% undecided?
Page 3 shows 100% when you add up all the candidates plus undecideds – which is what I expected, page 8 shows 122% when you add them all up.
http://www.mypublicstrategy.com/images/10538AL.chartsforbooks.pdf
Thanks
Look at 2nd choice–James leads except in the case of Johnson voters. Assuming a runoff, James is positioned to be the Republican nominee.
Thanks Natalie, not the question I’m asking though:
Can you clarify page 8 of the poll where it seems to show 43% undecided on their 1st choice as of May 2101 in this poll whereas on page 3 it shows 21% undecided 1st choice as of May 2010?
Page 3 shows 100% when you add up all the candidates plus undecideds – which is what I expected, page 8 shows 122% when you add them all up.
http://www.mypublicstrategy.com/images/10538AL.chartsforbooks.pdf
Thanks
That’s May 2010 not May 2101
Interesting about the King vs. Strange race. Apparently I am not alone in believing that King is an ‘empty suit’ who chases storms, oil spills, memorial services, and national issues that are above his pay grade. I have seen little substance from his actions other than bellicose posturing and letter writing, a lot of press coverage and political rallies thinly disguised as town hall meetings. Maybe we voters are not as stupid as Mr. King apparently believes.
Jack, Brent,
Still waiting on clarification of page 8 of the poll where it seems to show 43% undecided on their 1st choice as of May 201o in this poll whereas on page 3 it shows 21% undecided 1st choice as of May 2010.
http://www.mypublicstrategy.com/images/10538AL.chartsforbooks.pdf
Would you mind posting the raw data somewhere?
Thanks
Anon, last I checked, Jack and Brent do not work for you. So why don’t you figure it out yourself.
Alabamacountrybo95 – this might sound obvious, but if I could figure it out myself, I wouldn’t have posted the question.
You’re correct – they don’t HAVE to respond to me, but since they are publically reporting reuslts on one of the major state races, I don’t think it’s too much to ask why they’re poll appears to show different results for the number of undecideds.
If they will post the raw data, other pollsters should be able to generate the same results, thus validating the numbers they are reporting.
Also, on page 9 the there is a “n=some number” under each candidate in the 1st choice column. Is this the number of votes for each candidate? I’m asking because when you add the total number for all of the candidates in the 1st choice column it is 1,006 – that total number of ALL respondents for the poll.
Given that the number of undecideds on 1st choice is listed as either 21% or 43% depending on what page you are looking at, it seems to me that the total number of respondents on page 9 would be less than the total number of respondents.
[...] ***Doc’s Political Parlor: Public Strategy Associates Releases Independent Polling in GOP Gov and AG Races [...]
The people who were polled were not randomly selected. There names were selected by the people who paid for the poll.
Just so you know, Public Strategies, the administers of this poll, was fired by the Bentley campaign last spring for gross incompetence. They have an agenda. This poll is biased,