With good help from both sides of the aisle, the Senate Elections Directory is updated with ratings for the races (“Lean DEM,” “Likely GOP,” etc.)
Here is a summary of how the races stack up.
|Alabama State Senate Races|
|Safe DEM||Likely DEM||Lean DEM||Toss Up||Lean GOP||Likely GOP||Safe GOP|
Who will organize the leadership of the Senate for the next quadrennium?
Well, if the above chart is our starting point, the Dems have the advantage in 15 races, and the GOP has the advantage in 15 races. Control of the Senate may hinge on five toss-up Senate races, plus whatever surprises the candidates and their parties can pull in the other races.
All five races that we have listed as Toss-ups have incumbents running for re-election: Tom Butler (D – Senate District 2), Zeb Little (D – SD 4), Paul Sanford (R – SD 7), Phil Poole (D – SD 21) and Harri Anne Smith (the erstwhile Republican candidate in SD 29 apparently preparing to run as an independent).
Read your tea leaves to decipher whether Smith will caucus with the Republicans or the Democrats if she wins the race against Republican George Flowers. Democrat Jennifer Adams would be unlikely to win the election if she stays in the race.
Coming up, we give the state House races an overdue update.