Posted by With good help from both sides of the aisle, the Senate Elections Directory is updated with ratings for the races (“Lean DEM,” “Likely GOP,” etc.)
Here is a summary of how the races stack up.
| Alabama State Senate Races | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe DEM | Likely DEM | Lean DEM | Toss Up | Lean GOP | Likely GOP | Safe GOP |
| 6 18 19 20 23 24 26 28 33 |
8 10 |
1 22 27 30 |
2 4 7 21 29 |
5 9 11 13 |
12 25 35 |
3 14 15 16 17 31 32 34 |
Who will organize the leadership of the Senate for the next quadrennium?
Well, if the above chart is our starting point, the Dems have the advantage in 15 races, and the GOP has the advantage in 15 races. Control of the Senate may hinge on five toss-up Senate races, plus whatever surprises the candidates and their parties can pull in the other races.
All five races that we have listed as Toss-ups have incumbents running for re-election: Tom Butler (D – Senate District 2), Zeb Little (D – SD 4), Paul Sanford (R – SD 7), Phil Poole (D – SD 21) and Harri Anne Smith (the erstwhile Republican candidate in SD 29 apparently preparing to run as an independent).
Read your tea leaves to decipher whether Smith will caucus with the Republicans or the Democrats if she wins the race against Republican George Flowers. Democrat Jennifer Adams would be unlikely to win the election if she stays in the race.
See the entire Senate Elections Directory here.
Coming up, we give the state House races an overdue update.
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I think SD 30 will flip to GOP.
Nailed it on the head at the moment Danny. Still a long way to go for those who are disheartened or encouraged by this analysis.
While folks are checking this out, let me know if any of the info at the social media directory needs to be updated for the candidates in these races or others:
http://www.theworldaroundyou.com/alabama-candidates-on-social-media/
Smith’s going to bomb out. That race is SAFE Republican – no way is it a toss-up.
SD 15 is safe GOP, but there is good evidence that Slade Blackwell will caucus with the Democrats if he were to win in the GOP primary.
Harri Anne Smith will without a doubt caucus with the Dems if she wins. That’s just one more the GOP is going to have to win to get a majority.
princeliberty, you must not live in the 29th senate district. Smith is polling in the mid 70′s against Flowers and all you hear around the district is how PO’d folks are with the decision by the elite Repub leadership to remove her from the ballot. Flowers has a lot of wealthy friends, but his support seems to end there. Looks like his campaign is wilting.
Lots of Smith supporters at the Tri-State BBQ Competition this past weekend in Dothan.
Smith is using push-polling to get her numbers up (doubt she is actually at 70% – Proof/Link?), she is starting to fall behind with most registered voters though.
anyone who thinks smith is at 70% is not rational. 70% name id I am sure…but not a good feeling about her in terms of the voters. she will caucus with dems without a doubt just to spit in the face of the Republican party once again.
Is SD30 still Lean-Dem with Wendell Mitchell retiring?
Brewbaker polls in the high 80s in that District and the Dems filed a no-name against him. Move it to the safe column.
Actually, I am a district 29 voter. Smith own poll did not claim she was in the 70s.
Wendell Mitchell won’t retire.
I disagree with your assessment of Senate 35. There is no one in Montgomery that Brooks has not hacked off. His opponent is a young faith grounded businessman that will appeal to Broooks” ain’t got a Bill passed” campagin. The demographics of this district are nearly evenly divided, so being a Democratic won’t hurt… with Davis in Governor’s spot !
Where are you looking in from? Mars?
Outside lookin in- Totally agree about 35. He will pull the Dem vote and I think a portion of the republican vote. I believe the margine was a little less than 500 votes in the last election. Sounds like anyones game.
I think Senate District 22 is a toss up. Peacock against the Dem. will be a great race. It is a huge district, but most of the larger areas are going for R’s.
The D’s have saved a lot of money to put into this race, but Peacock will give them a run for their money.
Wendell Mitchell is very sick and has been flying to Texas for treatments for a “rare blood disorder,” and word on the street is that he probably won’t be able to run again. If he doesn’t, that seat will most definitely switch to GOP. And if he does run, he’s going to have some tough competition.
Bryan Taylor would make a very good Senator if that district wants a Republican… and a resident of the district!