Campaigns react to PPP poll

We’re all excited to have the Public Policy Polling results today. An independent poll — especially with all these wonderful details — is political geek manna!  Not that we’re geeks.

Here’s how interested parties are reacting (I’ll update this as I get more to point to):

On the Democratic side, the poll has Artur Davis at 38% to Ron Sparks’ 28%.  The Sparks campaign issued a press release embracing numbers which they say show Sparks “clearly has the momentum in the Democratic primary.”  Their major take-away, as I read it, is this:

In only a matter of months, a 30-point lead for Artur Davis has shrunk to a 10-point lead.

[...]

In August, a poll released by the Davis campaign showed he had a 3-1 favorable to unfavorable rating. Now 34 percent of Democratic voters have an unfavorable view of him, while only 28 percent view him favorably.

Here’s the release (.pdf) about that Davis-commissioned poll, which was conducted in July by Anzalone-Liszt Research.

(For fun, you can go back and read the Davis-commissioned A-L poll from January, 2009, which can be found here. It pitted Davis up against Kay Ivey, Bradley Byrne and Jack Hawkins.)

On the Republican side, Bradley Byrne’s campaign is so far kind of letting the numbers speak for themselves:

The results of the second independent statewide poll were released today and show Bradley in the lead!

1. Bradley Byrne – 27%

2. Roy Moore – 23%

3. Robert Bentley – 10%

4. Kay Ivey – 10%

5. Tim James – 9%

6. Bill Johnson – 1%

7. James Potts – 0%

The Tim James campaign either hasn’t read the poll carefully yet or is trying to spin the numbers:

Public Policy Polling (PPP) just released a survey of Alabama voters showing an 84% approval rating for Barack Obama along with 80% approval for Obama-Care. On its face, this so-called survey of Alabama voters is without any basis in fact.

The problem is that the 80% approval for Obama’s healthcare reform package was only the result of asking likely Democratic primary voters.  To be fair, on my first read of the full poll results I made the same mistake, and others made the same mistake as I watched the poll news roll out on Twitter this afternoon. But we figured it out.

PPP has responded in strong terms to Tim James’s accusation of a “flawed” poll but also gave us this nugget:

The general election numbers we’ll be releasing tomorrow show that Byrne is easily the most formidable Republican candidate for the general election.

Oooo! Can’t wait.

More soon….

12 comments to Campaigns React to PPP Poll

  • Lyn Johnson

    Forget what the campaigns say, the race is fluid, there are lots of undecideds and no clear front runner. Only 2 more months until the primary. Hold on to your hat, it is going to be a bumpt ride.

  • anonymous

    I saw this video on another blog of Sparks who is apparently against healthcare reform. I think he says one thing to one audience and another thing to another audience. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KMNU81LdUpY

  • princeliberty

    Correct – very fluid. However, you can say its unlikely that anyone other than Byrne or Moore will be in the Republican runoff.

    The big news is that Tim James is dead in the water and the very results will harm greatly. He could impact by going negative and prehaps hurting someone else. But I doubt he can help himself much now if at all.

  • Mr. Jinks

    I don’t think the poll is gospel, but when it reflects other ones that have been taken recently, you cannot discount the results.

    As for the Sam Franklin Thomas results, I would count those numbers toward “undecided” or “I’m a democrat and I’m unhappy with the other two choices.”

    And Tim James. Poor Tim James. Another unfavorable poll, but his campaign staff made it worse with their reaction. Brian at Flashpoint put it best saying the James campaign was channeling Sparks.

    With six weeks to go until the election, I think James’ only choice is hit Byrne hard. He’ll want to drive up negatives among conservatives, which if you believe this poll, sits at an incredibly low 6 percent. I look for the tried and true Amendment One attack to be first and foremost.

    The big question for James is, even if he drives up negatives for Byrne, will that translate into votes FOR James? Or will he just be doing Roy Moore and Artur Davis a favor?

  • Frankly, these numbers are polling in response to TV ads at this point. The race will solidify by election day.
    Actually, the GOPrimary is wide open. Any two of five candidates could end up in the runoff.

  • BadLaw

    I don’t think so, I think the top two are the most viable at this point. They would have to trip up before that would change.

  • Chef

    John Killian is a huge James supporter, which is the only reason he claims that “any two of five candidates could end up in the runoff.” Keep drinking the James koolaid John…it will taste extra bitter when James can’t even overtake Bentley in June!

  • Carolyn

    Tim James is already orchestrating negative calls and emails and ads. The only question is when he starts to spend his daddy’s friends money to do it on TV. Negative campaigning is not well received by most voters. See John Killian’s blog for evidence.

  • princeliberty

    Good point about the negative ads having little hope of helping James.

    5 people are running (remember Johnson is still running) – if one starts to hammer another of the candidates – even by telling the truth. Voters are most likely go to go to turn one of the other candidates.

    Tim cannot change the fact that he is not qualified to be governor.
    Conservatives have proven champion in Roy Moore. And if you are a country club RINO – Byrne is your man.

    There is no room or need for Tim and his huge ego in this race.

  • princeliberty

    Your right Pastor Killian – the numbers are driven by ads.

    Moore has not run a single ad and is right there for first place with Byrne way ahead of Tim. And at 48% has by far and awawy the highest favorable rating. Tim’s negatives are higher than his positives after spending a huge amount of money.

    Moore is the one true conservative who can unite conservatives and defeat the RINO Byrne. We have the biggest showdown ever taking place between small government conservatives and the blueblood crowd.
    It’s time to aid in the cause instead of undermining it.

  • ALPatriot1960

    Carolyn – when you make negative statements such as they are = where are your facts. The only thing that I have seen that came from the James campaign dealt with his Byrne’s PAC to PAC transfers from gambling. BYW, they took full credit for this. Again, where are your facts. You must be a Byrne fan a they continually personally attack and don’t ever back up statements with facts. Remember, facts only please.

  • ALPatriot1960

    PrinceLiberty – sorry to disappoint but Moore is NOT the only one that can unite the Conservatives. On the contrary, Rasmussen Poll just came out with their own polling info and Moore is the ONLY GOP that is trailing Davis and Sparks. So NO he is not what we need.

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