Posted by I’ve been pretty busy at this end. Several things to catch up on around here…
For starters, have you seen Kay Ivey’s tv ad? The release from her campaign said it went up on Tuesday.
Do I have it right that she is the second gubernatorial candidate in the state to go up on TV this election cycle?
I have to give her credit, those are a lot better than Byrne’s hokey commercials.
Here comes the straight-talk express!
it is better than byrne’s ad with his family talking. but it is not as good as the ones where byrne is talking straight to the camera. i like kay’s ad fine though. not bad. i like to hear her talk with her southern accent…but will i vote for her? No.
Kay’s ads are the very definition of “waste of time.” She is wasting her money – and it is all hers; no players in this race are giving her a dime. That shows that unquestionably she has zero chance.
BTW is the Engineer of the PACT Train Wreck actually running on “fiscal responsibility?”
Yeah 2010 if I was for tax hikers I wouldn’t vote for anybody but Bobly Byrne either (well… maybe Bentley or Johnson since they was accomplises in the billion dollar tax scheme too). But since we know you are the designated waterboy in here for Byrne we have learned to take what you say with a mountain of salt.
NO^5,
WOW! So many things to address. First, spending ones own money is now unacceptable in Republican primaries? Somebody better tell Tim James, Ron Sparks, and others quick.
“Engineer of the PACT Train Wreck”??????????? I had no idea that the our state treasurer had control of Wall Street. I hate to let facts get in the way of a good narrative but PACT investments actually performed better than RSA in 2008 and for some reason RSA is considered the gold standard of government investments.
My investments lost money in 2008. I reviewed my investment advisor. His management, much like the PACT board, has been cleared of any mismanagement or malfeasance.
I’m not sure who I’m voting for yet but I can assure you that PACT or which power broker that is backing the candidate won’t be influencing my decision. I’m more concerned about an ability to reduce the size of government and allowing the private sector to create jobs in our great state.
CC, Byrnes and James are spending a bit of their own money – and have raised MILLIONS in contributions from OTHERS. Kay Ivey is spending (IF she doesn’t pull her annual “bait and switch”) MILLIONS of her OWN money and has raised only $80 THOUSAND in actual contributions from OTHERS.
Let’s review: Byrne and James actual contributions from someone other than themselves are in the MILLIONS. Ivey’s haven’t even approached six figures.
The difference is staggering and shows Ivey simply has zero support. Her sinking her own personal fortune intot his race is incredibly bad fincnial judgement – much like her incompetent, asleep-at-the-wheel management of PACT. Class dismissed, CC.
no no:Byrne’s money is mostly from the Montgomery insider Bob Riley crowd which is to say: the VERY SAME ones that tried to hike our taxes 1.2 BILLION dollars! They want there fairhaired boy to keep the action alive on their investments and agenda from the last 8 years. They’ll be back pushing for another tax hike and have one of the true believers in Byrne ready and willing. As for Tim raising millions: didin’t most of his outside money come from 5 or 6 old Fob cronies. Where is the groundswell of support for the engineer of the Foley beach bridge that has now become a financial ball and chain for taxpayers in Baldwin county? I haven’t seen any evidence of it personally or in any polls. He’ll be lucky to get the same 7% he got in 2002. I agree with cc about the economy. I don’t blame no Kay Ivy for the crooks on Wall Street sinking us folks on main street. You are just being a hack for Tim if you try to place stock market losses on her. Let’s all remember that Bobly Byrne was also on the pact board so if anybody thinks Ivy has blame then the SAAME goes for Byrney Boy to.
Bill Johnson issued a press release claiming that Byrne supporters are the reason insurance rates have increased. Any one know what that might be about? More on topic: the Ivey ads are much better than the Byrne ads- IMO.
I’m no Ivey fan, but her ads are way better than Byrne’s.
. . .and Kay’s involvement in the PACT collapse can’t all be blamed on Wall Street. They (the PACT board)were repeatedly warned before the collapse (and that includes Byrne who was also on the PACT board). Kay has done her best to avoid any responsibilty for this mess, and that is not a good thing in a possible Gov – “The Buck Stops Here” will NEVER be Kay’s slogan.
Whatever you say about Kay, good ads. And also consider the following fact: no polling shows any significant interest in PACT. ECONOMY! JOBS! GOVT WASTE! That is going to move numbers. And who is going to attack her on this issue in the media — Byrne? Don’t think so, though he will try and backdoor some money to the PACT Parent leadership to attack her. James? He can only fight a war on so many fronts and he ain’t no General Patton to begin with. Bentley maybe, though he is going to be fighting the AEA rumors. Moore, not his style. Johnson, maybe when the visitors beam him back down to earth for a visit.
No one is matching Tim when it comes to spending his own big bucks.
No on will since nobody’s going to match his ego.
He thinks the governorship is his birthright.
And we have seen how treating public offices as a birthright has worked out over the history of this country.
Bad news for Tim – the people are sick and tired of this spoiled brat nonsense.
Indy if you think there is “no significant interest in PACT” you haven’t been to any of the PACT member meetings. They are organized and angry. The issue won’t go away for Kay OR Byrne.
If it wasn’t an issue Kay would have more than 3% right now and would have raised more money- a LOT more money – maybe 20 times more money. She’s a two-term statewide incumbent official and she raised $80K. That says everything to folks in Montgomery.
Bentley is far more viable than Kay and she is neck-and-neck with Bill Johnson right now. Shorty Price will be governor before Kay.
i read bill johnson’s release. weird. he acts as if byrne is the governor and has control over state policy. bill johnson’s campaign of fiction gets more and more bizarre. because no one will pay attention to him or give him money – he tries to attack those in the lead. it’s sad.
2010, Bill Johnson’s campaign is bizarre, but don’t forget he raised as much money in the first period as the subject of this thread – two-term statewide incumbent Kay Ivey. They are both equally viable as gubernatorial candidates.
Anon., the PACT issue does not poll. As for the PACT groups, do they vote in the GOP primary is the only question that needs to be asked. If not, move on.
And as for the money, if it is green it spends — not matter what the source is. I have stated I did not support Kay (though have in the past), but that I am watching her closely. I believe her to be a much more likely dark horse in this race than anyone gives her credit for. If she stays up six weeks on TV, watch out. And curious to see what else she has up her sleeve — obviously media guys have some talent. As for the people in Montgomery, some have been watching Bynre closely because the fear is they have another Drayton on there hands. (Money did not save him.)
Indy you are right that “if it is green it spends” – BUT it is very important if you cannot raise money outside your own funds. That shows that the players in Montgomery know you cannot win. Kay isn’t raising squat from anyone with an interest in how the governor’s race turns out. That shows that the “big mules” KNOW she cannot win or even be a factor. It’s a pretty exact science.
No one has ever come anywhere close to self-financing a win in an Alabama’s governor’s race, and besides Kay does not have that kind of money. She is squandering her fortune. Sad, actually.
“No one has ever come anywhere close to self-financing a win in an Alabama’s governor’s race”
What about Fob in ’78?
Fob didn’t spend his own money 20-t0-1 like Kay is . . . .nowhere even remotely close. Not even in the same universe. Ridiculous statement WH
Look at it this way: Kay actual money raised: $80,000
Kay self finance: $1,750,000
That is two more columns of self-finance than donations. Unwinnable.
However the ads were paid for (does it matter?), if Ivey keeps raising the ante with ads this well done, she will move numbers in her favor. Ivey comes across as real and sincere, vastly different from Byrne.
Most voters don’t give a rip about whether ads are paid by personal money or donations unless the donations are tainted like Sparks and Byrnes. When people discover that the gambling mafia is buying an election then it matters. But I’ll tell you something that has big impact—whether a guy is telling the truth or not. I’ve had friends ask me about the guy on the TV and how he seems to be saying all the right things. As soon as I let them know what a RINO phony he is they immediately tell me he aint getting there vote. When I tell them he was the guy who pushed through the Billion dollar tax scam in 2003 they really get riled up. So all these folks in here that are Bobly Byrne suppporters who trash Moore, James and Ivy and are all giddy about Byrne’s huge stash of cash are kidding themselves about his chances. By May 31 the Judge, Tim or Ivy will have gotten out the mass message that Byrne is a tax hiking Clinton supporter and all of Byrnes support besides the Big Mules will have crumbled. There are not enough moderate tax hikers in the republicans primary to get Byrne across the finish line. Period. So I hope the Mules keep doubling down on this no-chance no-way no-how loser because I’m going to enjoy seeing them loses millions upon millions of there money just like they did in 2003 and in 2006. Keep writing the checks country clubbers because the regular people mock you.
It IS true voters don’t care who is paying for ads. Here’s the pertinent point: if the people who matter in Montgomery think you have a snowball’s chance in hell you won’t be having to foot the bill yourself for TV. Bottom line: none of the Big Mules is supporting Kay, Roy, Johnson, or Bentley. All the serious money goes to James and Byrne. Your winner will be one of those two. It’s a s sure as the sun rising tomorrow.
Sure as the rising sun huh? Who told you that? Former Governor Blount, Former Chief Justice See or Incumbant Justice Brown? Sounds like a Montgomery insider whose myopia puts him way out of touch with mainstream conservative voters. When the Billion dollar tax info finally hits this campaign Byrne will wish he would have listened to his inner true voice and run against Davis as a Democrat where he could have possibly captured the nomination.
Look, I respect everybody’s right to support a candidate in the R primary and do not know many of the candidates like many of you do. That being said, I do want to reveal my bias — I’m supporting Ms. Ivey.
As far as PACT goes, here’s my thinking:
1. I think the PACT, including Ivey and Byrne, had to give some leeway to the fund managers because they had produced well in the past. It’s also important, at least in my mind, to recognize that the Board had to consider more aggressive investments where possible to fund the constant tuition hikes.
2. Ivey at least sent out a letter to tell people what happened. Also, she stayed on the Board and proposed a solution.
3. While I doubt that PACT will stay around for the long-term, it does appear that everybody who has a current contract will be funded, even if the funding isn’t appropriated all at once.
So, am I delusional? What does everybody else think? I just think Ivey’s overall record, efficient administration, and tax-cutting proposals, and lack of scandal in general speak well of her.
SW
Wick,very rational — so that must mean to throw it out the door immediately.
As for the big mule theory, that did not hold true for Tim’s daddy in 1994. In the primary, the big mule money went to (tada) Winton Blount — who came in a staggering third place (He connected even worse then Bradley is now with the grassroots). In the general (and Dem primary) they (from the Power Co. to all the associations) were firmly behind FOLSOM — who lost after getting photos taken of him getting on Milton’s private jet headed to the Caribbean. Strange how Alabama keeps the same cast of characters and plotlines as any soap opera.
SW – yes you are delusional. Kay is toast. Someone should tell her not to waste her nieces/nephews/cousins inheritance.
And SW if the PACT thing isn’t a scandal what qualifies as one? If you are talking about personal ones, Kay has an Elephant in the Room that Dares Not Speak Its Name. It probably won’t since Kay is not a real contender, but it is out there. If she WAS a contender it would be huge and that made everyone in Montgomery question her viability long before the PACT thing happened.
Alright this is the way it is – PACT might be an issue. Run the poll numbers. But when you get do to the meat on the bone…what is a better issue : Amendment One for Bradley (ask Twinkle against the candidate in the wheelchair or the Drayton against the fat readhead); or Tim (just run his father against him); or against wildcard Kay. Montgomery always has the ones they want and the ones they get. Sounds like Xmas to me.
OK, Anonymous, appreciate the comments and you get a response. I think calling PACT a scandal is a stretch. The economy melted down. The world’s most sage investors got clobbered. The plan had been doing well in prior years and then lost approximately the same % value as numerous other plans. Pinning this all on Ivey, or using it to demonstrate general incompetence, doesn’t make sense to me.
As for the Elephant you mentioned, clearly it is impossible to decipher what you’re talking about. That being said, even assuming some such skeleton exists, are you sure she is the only viable candidate with one?
Steven you are correct that other candidates have Elephants in the Room – no question. But Kay has one that makes the rounds in Montgomery and there is no question that it affects her viability. If she becomes a viable candidate I firmly believe she’ll have to address the rumors. The fact that she hasn’t suggests to me that no one is paying attention to her at this point.
Anon., the scandals that will jump out of Tim’s closet will stun a herd of oxen. Bradley’s ghosts will make him completely unelectable in a GOP primary…he might win a Democratic primary though (2003 Amendment One is the tip of the iceberg for him).
I feel like I’m watching my grandmother run for governor.
Whether or not PACT was/is Kay’s fault, voters believe it is, that’s all that matters. It is one of those issues that resonates. Only 45,000 in the program, but hundreds of thousands feel a connection to it. Kay can’t hide from that, so it hangs around her neck and will subsequently be, among other issues, her demise. Agree with previous posters who say she should hold on to her money, just ain’t gonna happen.
Anon4 you nailed it.
Anon4 show us the proof of what you alledge. Hundreds of thousands feel a connection to Pact? Where are these hundreds of thousands? I haven’t met seen or heard from them. Just like when people say that hundreds of thousands were upset at Judge Moore for putting the 10 Commandments in the supreme court building. No they weren’t. Unless you refer to the liberals who vote democrat. But they don’t count in the republican primary. Polling shows this. Where is your polling or data proof that people care about Pact more than Obamacare or govt waste or the economy? I can show you one poll that proves what I know is going to be Bobly Byrne’s demise. 70-30. 70% against higher taxes. Only 30% of country clubbers and corporate do gooders wanted higher taxes. If you can show us 70-30 care about Pact or 70-30 were against the 10 Commandments then I’ll shut up. Problem for you is that you can’t. You are just making up assumptions out of your ass and passing it along as matter of fact. Sorry bub. Byrne just isn’t going to be your nominee no matter how much you RINOs in here try to tear down your better rivals in this race.
Conservo, talk to a legislator if you want proof that large numbers of Alabama voters are highly interested in PACT; they have repsonded very quickly to this and those guys NEVER move unless it is under pressure. They are getting lots on this issue.
Kay badly, badly underestimated the importance of this issue early, and with apologies to Steven, if he is expressing their opinion on this issue now they have not learned from the error- prone initial response. A person very close to Kay told me the week the PACT collapse story first broke that “No one will be talking about this issue when Kay runs for governor.” That was way off, obviously. Later the same Ivey insider told me “This will be handled quickly and then everyone will forget about it.” It hasn’t been handled and it is a very long way from being forgotten.
Given the delusional thought of her campaign people when this first broke in early 2009 and the continuing failure to grasp the seriousness of the political situation, the inescapable conclusion is that not only Is Kay raising zero money but that the same misguided assumptions that guided her early conduct of her campaign are ruling the day now. She’s finsished politically. She’s Dead Woman Campaigning.
Talk to legislators. That’s your proof. That’s your poll? A talk with someone close to Ivy. That’s the numerical data? I talked with somebody close to Byrne that told me his support of the Billion Dollar Tax was not going to matter but guess what. People are mad as hell that Obama is raising taxes and so will Byrne. They can’t help themselves because that’s what big goverment liberals do. He’s toast. Maybe he can run for his old senate seat and pay back the money the special interests are putting up for him. Or run as a Democrat in 2014 to have a better chance at winning the nomination. No Tax Hiker is going to win a republican primary in a year like this. Count on it. NO TAX HIKER no matter how well he is funded. Conservatives don’t support tax hiker RINOs. Don’t kid yourself. He has the worst tax record of anybody in the race. He cannot win.
Conserrrrrrrrrrrvo Mannnnnnnnnnn:
So what do you think about Byrne’s “No New Tax” Pledge?
Not meaning to answer for someone else, but Byrne’s tax pledge is just what it seems — a cheap campaign ploy to get around his big elephant in the room.
Conservo man, take a breath, in no way was I implying support for Byrne. I don’t know who you talk to or what poll numbers you have, and frankly I don’t care. The fact remains that this program has been heavily promoted for years and folks feel a connection to it in one way or another. They may not know what “PACT” is, but they know “that college program that Susie bought for little johnny so he could get a degree can’t pay for johnny to go to school anymore,” and in the end, Ivey is tied to that.
If Ivey even became a factor in this race all you’d have to do is slap a kid up on tv telling the story about how she ruined his only chance to make something out of himself and go to college. Uh, yeah, they definitely are ant-obama healthcare, but circle back to little johnny’s shattered future and that’s a whole different level of pissed off.
It is what it is, but that doesn’t mean I support Byrne, but you seem pretty obsessed with every post circling back to your nemesis. Kind of hope he wins just to see you go nuts. step away from your computer oh conservative super hero…your word for the day: hobby.
The above is assuming little Johnny does miss a PACT payment – which ain’t going to happen anytime soon.
I’m in Montgomery today and hear that these ads are moving Ivey’s numbers. Polls show top 3 issues: Jobs/economy, education and gambling. PACT is way down the list.
Yep. That is the word at the state house. Ivey’s ads have impressed and she seems to be challenging Byrne. Moore still leads among likely GOP voters. James hasn’t moved at all. Surely he’ll do something.
Lyn I work every day at the State House and with all due respect I haven’t heard anything at all like that. The word in Montgomery is that Kay is dead in the water. The 45-day reports will tell all. Kay will show no fundraising at all on that – and you can take that to the bank (which Kay can’t do as she hasn’t raised a dime).
She’s dead. Toast. Over.
Kay Ivey IS on TV – on “The Golden Girls!”