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Bradley Byrne’s gubernatorial campaign started ads on TV this week with a modest buy – about 275 Gross Rating Points (GRPs) in Birmingham, about 250 GRPs in Mobile, and some cable buys in Huntsville, Birmingham, and Mobile. A buy of one hundred GRPs means the average television viewer will see the ad about once, so this buy means the average viewer in Birmingham and Mobile would see the ad between two and three times.
“It really takes 600 to 700 GRPs to move some numbers,” one Democratic strategist tells the Parlor. “To say that Byrne’s buy in this range is negligible is too strong, but it’s below the minimum you’d expect to make a real impression.”
Then what would be the point? “Well, you’d do it if you wanted to get on the air first. This lets him lay down a marker as first out. He may be battling perceptions that his campaign is lackluster.”
“Being first up is something you show donors. That he is spending as much in Mobile, where he is well known, as he is in Birmingham is a little surprise.
“You are going to have a hard time finding anyone who’ll say that 250 points is a robust buy. A buy like this is aimed at insiders, funders, people on the internet, opinion leaders. It’s something that may reset the conversation.
“I assumed [gubernatorial candidate Tim] James would be first out of the box. Byrne may be playing games with James, denying him that feather in his cap.”
Another political consultant told a similar story. “We try to do 1000 points on our buys, so the average viewer sees our ad about 10 times, for real penetration. At this point, with nobody else on the air Byrne might get as much bang for his buck with 300-500 points.”
“Byrne may be trying to flex his muscles a little bit. He’s probably trying to make underfunded candidates panic.
“It’s definitely a shot across Tim James’s bow. He may be trying to provoke him a little bit. That’s what I would do. But the rule of thumb is ‘never go up without the money to stay up.’ A one week buy? If you don’t stay up, and you buy less then 300 points in two markets, one of them the one he’s most known in, what’s the point? I would have waited or bought more. I’m sure they have a strategy though.”
I ask about the talk I’ve heard that Byrne may be trying to shore up support among evangelical Christians after his recent Bible flap. “How many people really know about that? You can see that they think they have a problem with the community because of the ad, but it doesn’t come to the forefront of my mind as the reason he’s running these.”
“I’d say he’s flexing muscle as opposed to running scared. The size of the buy has me thinking… I don’t know what to think. It’s not big enough to… It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. I don’t know what to think.”
Here are Byrne’s ads.
Legislative Dispatch
Purple Dot Connection
2010 Big List
2010 Senate Elections
2010 House Elections
Press Releases
There are a lot of absurd things which stand out on this thread, but probably the most absurd is Conservative’s:
“Tim built those business on his own, not with his Dad’s help.”
Get real. James is skating on thin ice using his “business experience” as his mantra. That just won’t pass the smell test.
Conservative, just exactly what are Tim James’ qualifications to be our governor?
Tim James is the only candidate that is not a lawyer, politician,or a judge. We need someone is this economic downturn that has business experience to understand how to lead our state out of this mess. Tim has 25 years building business, taking risks, and providing jobs for people. Tell me how many jobs have any of the other candidates provided? He started in 1986 learning the constrcuton business, then started the Escambia County Enviromental Corporation, has Owned and Operated Asphalt construction business, Built and operated an incineration company for industrial and waste and was a owner of the Baldwin County Bridge Company.
I am a small business owner, my father was and is a small business owner that grew to a large business. We are both tired of electing life long politicians who have no real world experience. Tim is a proven entrepeneur who we beleive is best suited to lead our state to economic recovery. I cant find that same confidence in any of the other candidates. This is the reason many business owners large and small are supporting Tim and you will be suprised by his contributions not from his family but by people who are ready to elect someone that is not a politican ,but a business man.
He also is a strong conservative and a great Christian man.
Lead our State out of an economic mess?
Ask the taxpayers in Baldwin County what a mess they are in by still paying for Tim James’ toll road while he uses the money he made to fund his campaign for Governor.
And the landfill? Great that Alabama is a dumping ground for other states garbage and that Daddy Fob’s connections and cash helped build this for the family.
I’ll have to hand it to you, Conservative. You can claim the title for taking a hapless business track record and spinning it into a beautiful fairy tale. Are you a fiction writer in real life?
James has done nothing except use daddy Fob’s influence and money for his two signature projects: a toll bridge ripoff in Baldwin county, and then an environmentally-corrupt land fill in Escambia county. Were the other businesses he was involved with just complimentary to the landfill or toll bridge?
One thing James has proven: A wealthy family with political connections are easy ways to make money and then claim you have successful business experience. Alabama doesn’t need more of this kind of leadership.
I have to agree with Conservative. I have met with all the candidates and Tim presented the best ideas and solutions for our state.
First of all I want to state that I am a Byrne supporter. I have attended gubernatorial forums to listen to the candidates and Byrne offers experience in building the economy and working with education. He also has a record supporting ethics reform.
Second, I grew up in Escambia County. I frequently hunt, fish, and visit family in the county and I drive by the dump quite often when I’m back in the county. For anyone to say that Tim James’ business ventures in building a dump which does more environmental harm than good, or a worthless toll bridge, are the kind of experience we need would be fooling themselves. I guarantee you no conservative from Escambia County with any sense will be supporting James.
As for the Ads, it’s a shame that people would be willing to base their vote off of the acting skills of a candidate. Bradley Byrne is as real as it gets. When I met with him he expressed true concern for all the problems facing Alabama.
The Ads were meant to give an identity to Byrne. With the recent attacks on Byrne’s character, the ads provide clarification on what he actually stands for. Look past the acting job and make sure to remember that the people in the ads are actually Byrne’s family, not paid stand-ins.
Conservative,
Is there a single business group that has endorsed James?
Hey look everybody! The “Mobile Press Register” talks about the long tight personal history between Bradley Byrne and pal Herman Thomas!
http://blog.al.com/live/2010/01/political_skinny_which_guberna.html
Tim James was tight with the “Ten Commandments Judge.” Bradley Byrne is tight with the “Ten Licks Judge.”
BTW Lyn – looks like Bradley WAS Herman’s Campaign Chair. You were wrong.
Unsure about Byrne but definitely “no” to James. James cannot escape his dad’s mantra ie: “run state government like a waffle house.” What if you don’t like waffle house? I don’t. The thing that troubles me about Bryne is his attitude/body language…he comes across as a snob and a smart alleck. Watch both commericals again. His family came across as robots. The first thing he needs to do is fire his Dick Cheney (how to hunt for dummies) campaign advisors and become a human. Our country is in financial troubles!!! What he is hunting (other than my vote) is not clear. What I am clear about is that our friends and our neighbors are hurting economically while state and loal governments continue to overspend their tax dollars. The state budgets could be slashed by 33% today by Riley and the legislature “if” they were serious about managing resources better. Instead they just hope government spending will just fix itself.
Bradley is trying to kill all the golfers on the course!
I find it so amusing that some people on here think Byrne is some sort of rich boy. ummmm…..I think, in fact I know, the rich boy that went to private boarding school and was raised in that manner was actually Tim James. At least get your facts straight guys.
2010 you are right about young Bradley. I have known this fine lad for years and his poor parents had to settle for UMS prep school and Duke University for Bradley. Oh the horrors!
This thread has degenerated into a “who has been the most maligned” candidate. What this proves is both of these guys are flawed candidates who are going to spend their time diverting the spotlight from their weaknesses to the other guys. An ugly fight is brewing.
I think Byrne’s TV ads are patronizing to voters and Byrne and son’s with guns over their shoulders walking thru the woods like simpletons reminds me of John Kerry on his Goose Hunt. Bryne also voted for the Alabama Tax Increase in 2003. NO REAL Conservative would do that.
To Carl .. on this thread, Do you actually think Byrne and Sons have bullets in those guns? The guns are just props to take advantage of Alabama Voters nativity.
naivety