Suffering from Political Hangover

It has taken me a while to get back to “Purple Dot,” mainly because I have been suffering from a kind of political hangover. Since Christmas, I’ve been giving a lot of thought to what’s going on in our politics. I guess I haven’t changed my mind about the quality or lack thereof civil discourse. Does anybody think that politics — whether conservative, liberal, or moderate — can succeed? It’s getting to the point that party labels, which people say don’t mean much anymore, are so controlling at the national and state levels that we cannot come to agreement on anything. I’m afraid that if I tell you that I was yelling “Roll Tide” throughout the Alabama-Texas game, I would be accused of all kinds of bias.

In a phrase, “I’m sick of it.” I’m sickened that 51 votes is not enough to pass anything in the U.S. Senate. I’m sickened that no one seems to sense that our political system is failing us so badly that even people like me who revel in the give-and-take of politics are so turned off that they wonder whether any of this is worth it. I told someone recently that idealism and cynicism are two sides of the same coin. For example, newspaper reporters are often thought to be cynical guys and gals. They’ve seen it all. And they can tell you who’s lying and what’s wrong with just about everything. Why do they notice all this negative stuff? They notice it because they’re idealists at heart.  That may be my problem.

Just think of the all of the craziness that we have been subjected to in the last couple of weeks and months. Glenn Beck? Why is this guy on television at all? Keith Olbermann? Who wants to listen to his “comments”? Sunday talk, which is supposed to be more mainstream, features Liz Cheney as an analyst. Give me a break.

 I don’t think there’s any stopping any of this by the way. I don’t think this explains why I haven’t been able to get back to this blog, but it gives you a sense of why I’ve been a little immobile. Maybe 2010 will be better year, but as Eyor might say, “I doubt that.”

VOTING IN BIRMINGAM AND BOSTON

First, Birmingham. I tried to build a model of how this election will turn out. And turnout was the key factor in understanding William Bell’s win. The model assumed that Bell would get about two-thirds of the African-American vote. I also assumed he would get 5 percent (and this was a conservative estimate) of the white vote. Different turnout figures yielded different results. In the case of a low turnout runoff — say 25 percent — Patrick Cooper had an advantage. At 30 percent, it would be a one-point race. At 40 percent (which is where we ended up) Bell would win. The final result, 54-46, suggests that Bell over- performed in white boxes and that he was successful in his GOTV plan.

This was clearly a down-and-dirty race as we approached election day. I thought a television ad which featured Sharon Bell, William’s wife, was the most effective of the campaign. She took on the charge that her husband had abused her; at the same time the ad raised the issue of Patrick Cooper’s divorce and the fact that his ex-wife was not African-American (photo inserted). Lots of things were going on in this 30 second ad, and the firm of MATRIX was masterful in putting it together. Patrick Cooper’s last ad was a testimonial from Andrew Young. Its effort was to connect Patrick vicariously to the Civil Rights movement via an endorsement from the former Mayor of Atlanta. The ad I saw 60 seconds, 40 of which featured photos of 1963 Birmingham, Martin Luther King, and Andrew Young. It was not until the last 20 seconds that Patrick Cooper’s name was even mentioned. This was in part an effort to counter Bell’s argument that Cooper  was an outsider, because he had no roots in Birmingham.  (He did move to Birmingham in 1994.) I fully expected a response ad from the Bell camp which asked the simple question, “You had to go to Atlanta to get an endorsement?”

A final note on campaign advertising here.  Chris Talley ran an attack ad against William Bell (and one wonders where the money came from). The ad ends with, “Vote Chris Talley For County Commission.” There are no County commission races until the June primary. Let’s see about this logic. If you are Chris Talley running against William Bell for county commission, wouldn’t you want him to win the mayor’s race? So, why would you run an ad where the intent is for him to be beaten?  Go figure.

Then there was Boston. Pre-election polls taken in the last week turned out to be on the money when it came to the final outcome. It is a definite blow to the Democratic machine in Massachusetts and also to the Democratic Party, the Democratic Senate, And a Democratic President. This bid we will hear today is likely to be that this was not a national election. Massachusetts voters are tired of the Democratic machine in their state and weaknesses of state government there. Of course, if you’re following any of this, it is clear that health care reform could be dead. The House could pass the Senate version of the bill, and it would all be over. The President would only need to sign it. Senator- elect Brown will not be certified for several days, and it is conceivable that a deal could be struck in the interim allowing Paul Kirk, Sen. Kennedy’s temporary replacement, to vote in favor of a Senate-House compromise. They might move to reconciliation, which would only require 51 votes. Or, it might be dead for quite a while — 15 years.

Next week, maybe we can talk about lighter subjects — like bingo.