THANKSGIVING JUST IN TIME

THE WASHINGTON SAUSAGE FACTORY
Watching the health care debate reminds me of the old joke about “loving the law and liking sausage.” Start with the vote taken Saturday night. Harry Reid and the Dems prevailed on the vote to proceed with debate on the health care reform bill. To get to 60 votes, the bill had to include a number of goodies for Senators who may not vote for the bill in the end. For example, Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) got $300 million for Medicaid. Republicans rightly claimed this was akin to the “Louisiana Purchase” (times 10). She strongly defended herself saying that, given Katrina, Louisiana needed the money. Moreover, there was no quid pro quo since she has no intention of voting for the bill (as written)! Senators Ben Nelson, Ron Wyden, and Blanche Lincoln also got concessions: removing health insurance companies’ exemption from anti-trust laws (Nelson), expanding health care coverage eligibility (Wyden), and more time to think about the bill (Lincoln). This is just the beginning. Just wait until the real vote(s) come. Old “tiresome” Lieberman went along (he said he would) but will not vote for cloture at the end of the debate unless or until the public option is removed. No one is talking about either Senators Snowe or Collins. I’m betting one of these two will sub for Lieberman as the 60th vote. Another Senator that I have thought might help out the President and Reid is Voinivich of Ohio. He’s retiring and is mad at everyone.

The Congress is off this week (something to be thankful for), but will be back next week to debate the bill. They may even have to work on Monday! Reid’s goal is to get a vote before Christmas and come back in January to reconcile House and Senate versions and then go to conference. The question is whether the Senate can come together again for 60 votes to break a predictable Republican filibuster. I’m not counting on any of this happening. Will Mary get another $300 mil? Besides cost, a minor distraction, don’t forget key substantive issues remaining, such as abortion, the public option, and mammograms. There are 17 women in the Senate. Many got into politics because they strongly support the “choice” side of the abortion debate. Will they all give in, in order to have some bill go to the Pres?

Mammograms—just what the President needed. The recommendation made by some non-governmental advisory board saying that women need not get mammograms before age 50 nor do self examinations (unless there is a family history of breast cancer or other concerns) was not well-received outside of the medical establishment. Interestingly, a number of well known women and breast cancer survivors, including Karen Tumulty of TIME and Carly Fiorina, Republican candidate for Governor in California, took on the report. The issue is interesting: The odds of mammograms detecting breast cancer are “1 in 1900.” What is the trade-off between the unlikelihood of detecting the cancer and being exposed to 10 hits or more of all that radiation? While the odds of finding cancer are long, 1 in 1900 is still a pretty large number of women.

The President’s popularity slipped again this week. The RCP average on favorability is right at 50 percent. The Gallup, for the first time, has Obama at 49. On the “right direction/wrong track” question, RCP’s average puts “wrong track” ahead by 19 points (57-38). On top of that, the unemployment rate climbed to more than 10 percent. That’s the number which has to change. While I am certain the White House “gets” the bind it is in, I don’t think those folks have a clue. Another stimulus cannot pass. Foreign trips usually boost popularity, but we’ve seen this movie before. And many Americans need a break from hearing their President speak and speak and speak—at least I do.

Then there’s Sarah. She’s in Birmingham today. I confess I did not stand in line to get a wristband, which would have allowed me to stand in line to get her to sign my book (that I don’t plan to buy). If any of you are lucky enough to be one of the 1,000, let us know about your experience. In the first three days, Sarah has sold 300,000 copies. This compares with 200,000 for Hillary and 400,000 for former President Bill.

ON THE HOMEFRONT
Here in Birmingham, qualifying for Mayor is over, and we have 14 candidates. Most observers think there are four or five serious candidates. (John Archibald of the BHAM NEWS put together a wonderful play-off draw similar to the final four—check it out to see the seeds.) Patrick Cooper is the most visible; lots of television, yard signs, and annoying robocalls. Patrick has one TV ad featuring his father, a retired Marine officer. I think the ad is pretty effective. Its appeal is to older voters, who may be concerned about a young guy coming in; Patrick is not that young… Patrick is probably counting on a solid white vote to get him in the runoff. That vote may not be as solid as it was in his race in 2007. Many voters living on Birmingham’s “Southside” are resentful of his endorsement of Howard Bayliss over Valerie Abbott. They believe he is responsible for a particularly nasty piece of literature that came out near the end of recent city council elections.

By comparison, other candidates are less visible. Emory Anthony, William Bell, Scott Douglas, and Carole Smitherman have yard signs; Bell is doing some direct mail. There have already been a number of forums. I will be moderating one on December 1st sponsored by Catalyst at Work-Play. Count on lots of activity after Thanksgiving; the first round of voting will be held on December 8th. At this point, you’d have to “guess” that Cooper makes the runoff with either Smitherman or Bell. “Guess” is the operative word, because no one has a clue about turnout, nor what a high or low turnout might mean. Because turnout is so dicey, polling is not going to be really helpful in predicting the vote. On Tuesday, November 24th, the new City Council will be sworn in. Will Carole Smitherman be re-elected Council President and thereby keep her position as Acting Mayor OR will a different Councilor be elected President, dsiplacing Carole as Acting Mayor? Stay tuned.

Statewide, it’s been quiet. Gwen Ifill spoke at Birmingham-Southern College this week. Her book, “Breakthrough Generation: Politics and Race in the Age of Obama” (now in paper), has a chapter on Artur Davis. In the Q & A, Davis’s opposition to health care reform along with Jesse Jackson’s comments to the Congressional Black Caucus were mentioned. Jackson’s speech referenced the 7th District Congressman, saying, “You can’t vote against health care and call yourself a black man.” Many are concerned that Davis is far too willing to sell out too soon, “just” to be elected in 2010. I wouldn’t be surprised if this doesn’t become a “Sister Souljah” moment for Congressman Davis.

HOPE YOU HAVE A VERY HAPPY THANKSGIVING!!