FIRST THOUGHTS ON THE RACE FOR BIRMINGHAM’s NEXT MAYOR

Let’s see how much trouble I can bring upon myself this week

BHAM MAYORAL RACE: The conviction of Mayor Larry Langford was the story last week. The official period of “mourning” lasted about 20 minutes. Rep. John Rogers said it was actually five minutes before his cell phone started ringing with talk of who will be the next Mayor. The cast of characters are by and large well known: Carole Smitherman (now acting Mayor), Patrick Cooper, Emory Anthony, Steven Hoyt, William Bell, AND the elephant in the room … former Mayor Richard Arrington. Lesser known potentials are Robert Kelly (a businessman) and possible Police Chief A. C. Roper. No doubt there was some polling done over the weekend. It’s difficult to handicap the race this early, except to say that, given a short window before the first round, name recognition counts.

It’s not that the race started Thursday. Those planning to run probably started getting money commitments long before the trial began. Smitherman is likely to have a leg up here. In a way, she has the upper hand. She can use this short time period to impress voters. She can set a course, promise a new day, and somehow interest voters in something. It doesn’t have to be a big idea–I recall a race in Austin, Texas, a few years ago. The winning candidate talked of economic development, of greening the city, all the grandest of visions. But what really caught the imagination of voters was his promise to re-configure the traffic lights, so that they would be properly staggered! Most believe that’s what won it for him. Traffic lights were hopeless out of sync, and rush hour congestion was terrible. Voters could really get their arms around something as simple as this, and they believed he could do that, even if the big ideas were out of reach. Carole is low key. She’s not going to give a charismatic speech that will get people out of their chairs. But she can offer a few fixes for the City, and that might just work. She also will have a lot of free media.

The other candidates are hard to assess, and I have lots of questions. Can Patrick Cooper put together another strong campaign? Will voters warm to his temptation to say, “I told you so… ?” Emory Anthony has run before, but did not capture the imagination of voters. Since those runs, he has been more active in the community. Can that pay off for him? Is Steven Hoyt, current city councilor, known outside his district? William Bell appears to be the grown-up on the JEFFCO Commission. He’s also earning a decent salary. While he does not have to give up his seat to run, how does he weigh these factors against a dream to become mayor? He’s lost twice. Chief Roper, according to some, will not run. If he was ever interested, this would be the time. Clearly, he is a respected figure. People care about crime. He’s done well. Wouldn’t he have a good shot? Can Robert Kelly overcome lack of name recognition. How much money would it take?

Richard Arrington is seen to be “dithering.” He would like to return to City Hall, but his lack of success in getting others elected to the City Council is a red flag. My own view is that he would be formidable. He might not be able to get others elected, but his currency as being sure and steady is likely a plus. Voters want stability right now. Arrington offers that. Whether he offers anything more is problematic. Many want a return to the good old days. But if he runs, he’ll have to work to win. No one will give it to him.

Of course, no one wins this thing outright (though Langford did). There will be a run-off. That fact that it is six weeks after the first round is outrageous.

ELECTION DAY TOMORROW: New Jersey and Virginia have gubernatorial races tomorrow. It looks like the Republican, Mr. McDonnell, will defeat the Democrat, Mr. Deeds. The NewJersey race looks close (though a PPP poll showed Christie ahead by 7 this morning). There is an independent in the race. Typically, voters move away from the independent. It’s likely that Christie will take that group 60-40. If it is close, Corzine will win.

The most interesting race is NY-23. This House race now pits the DEM, Bill Owens, against the CONSERVATIVE, Doug Hoffman. The REP, Dede Scozzafava, withdrew over the weekend; her numbers were dropping to below 20. The Republican establishment, led by Michael Steele and Newt Gingrich, were supporting Ms. Scozzafava. Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin sided with Mr. Hoffman. This is a reliably Republican district. It became vacant when the President appointed the incumbent to be Secretary of War. Democrats think they can win this seat, but I’d be surprised. Hoffman will win. There’s more to this, but I’ll save it for another blog. Tomorrow, the Republicans will tell us that whatever happens was a repudiation of the Obama administration. The Democrats will say that their losses should be seen as either inept campaigns or irrelevant–”all politics is local,” anyway.

COMING UP: THE REPUBLICAN AG RACE