Posted by I know we’re paying a lot more attention to the Langford trial than to the 2010 Governor’s race, but how can we not talk about former Mayor Richard Arrington’s endorsement of Ron Sparks over Artur Davis? Over the years, I have been an admirer of Mayor Arrington. He’s a Ph.D. in zoology, for goodness sake. And if anybody knows about the zoo Alabama is, he would. I voted for him when he first ran in 1979 and continued to support him thereafter. When I ran for the Senate in 1996, I sought his counsel and support. He told me that he wanted to support me, but he didn’t think I could win. “Natalie, my heart is with you, but my head tells me that while you might beat the Republican, you can’t win the primary.” In the end, I was able to secure a co-endorsement with Glen Browder. While I took Jefferson County handily (including the black vote), we both lost to Roger Bedford in the primary; Roger was beaten by Jeff Sessions.
So, Arrington is at it again. His “head” tells him that Artur Davis can’t win the general election—so, he’s putting time and effort into trying to defeat him in the primary. Endorsing Sparks? Can Sparks rally beat Davis in the primary? You have to ask why the establishment is so intent on bringing down Davis. They claim “it’s nothing personal…” They believe Davis will “bring down the ticket”—jeopardizing Democratic majorities in the State House and Senate. Where’s the evidence of coattails in Alabama? FACT: In 2008, Democrat Bobby Bright won in the 2nd CD—Did Obama bring down the Democratic ticket? FACT: In 2006, Bob Riley had a big win over Lucy Baxley. Yet, Sue Bell Cobb still beat Drayton Nabors. [NOTE: Judge Pete Johnson, the biggest vote getter in 1998 in Jefferson County, once told me his coattails did carry Don Siegelman! ]
Now, I’m a skeptic when it comes to the electability of Artur Davis in November of 2010. I know the polling thus far gives him more than a fighting chance. I have an open mind about this, but if it’s a 40-40-20 race now, the 20 percent who are undecided are mostly white and could easily go in one direction—to the Republican candidate. Let’s don’t kid ourselves. This is Alabama. I’d never count Artur Davis out, but I think it’s a stretch to put him in the Guv’s Mansion just yet.
I do think that given his smarts and toughness and money and race, he is the odds-on favorite to win the primary. There’s a certain reality here. Given the composition of the Democratic primary electorate (half or more will be African-American), Davis should win. Ron Sparks may have run statewide and won as Commissioner of Agriculture (and Industries), but he’s not a household name. Democratic leaders who invest time and energy in trying to defeat Davis are engaging in self-destructive behavior. By bloodying up the frontrunner, don’t they risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy come November of 2010? Congressman Davis is not going away. He may be a Don Quixote, but he is a man intent on making history. And if history is on his side, and he does become Governor, he’ll remember who was with him when.
Democrats who support Ron Sparks for the right reasons, because they genuinely believe he’d be good for our state, should get out there and work for him. But those in leadership positions who are supporting Sparks for the most cynical of reasons are not helping the Democratic Party. They are doing what they have always done—believing politics is nothing more than a football game, a game they’ve really been losing since 1986. They need to decide whether the game is worth more than the future of the state.
Mayor Arrington seems to want to get back in the game. Depending on the outcome of the Langford trial, he may return to City Hall. The days of the power of the Citizens Coalition and endorsements and ballots are over. Getting an endorsement from Richard Arrington does not get one elected to the City Council—ask Sheila Tyson, Elias Hendricks, and LeRoy Bandy. And it probably won’t get one elected Governor. Of course, I might be wrong about all of this…
NOTE: This post was edited and corrected thanks to your comments.
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I agree with most of the post. However, I do respectfully take acception to “this is Alabama.”
By this is Alabama you mean Alabama is too conservative to elect Davis then you are absolutely right.
But if you mean Alabama will not elect a black man then no way.
If a black conservative who was sharp was running for office in Alabama a lot conservatives would really go for that in a big way.
One thing: Obama has zero to do with Sue Bell vs Drayton. That wasn’t 2008. Deborah Bell lost to Greg Shaw in 2008.
Natalie,
Although I have no dog in that fight, the Democratic Party’s gubernatorial battle is very interesting to me. To be viable in the primary, Sparks has to have a significant slice of the black vote. While this endorsement is helpful to Sparks, I don’t think that endorsement alone gets him much.
I do know that there are significant numbers of polically influential leaders in the Democratic Party who are black that are less that pleased with Davis. Whether or not Sparks can translate that into widespread support among black voters remains to be seen. The Davis campaign could even use that support among those established politcal leaders against Sparks in the Democratic primary. Those insiders who supported Hillary in the presidential primary in Alabama had little effect, since Obama decisively won the primary in Alabama.
I would like to make a minor correction to your post. I believe any positive effect from Gov. Riley’s coattails was easily negated by the backlash building toward the Bush administration in Washington. The Dems did not enhance their majority in ‘06. We broke even in the House. Our incumbent didn’t run in the 2nd district, which gave the D’s an easy pickup and the R’s narrowly defeated a long-time incumbent D in the heavily Republican 86th district.
In the Senate the R’s picked up 2 seats. Ben Brooks defeated Gary Tanner in Mobile and Arthur Orr picked up the open seat formerly held by Tom Ed Roberts.
Sparks is seeing polling that shows Davis is popular with whiteDemocrats, particularly on the 65 corridor, where most of them live, and he is being pushed into a mad dash to get black support to stay within any distance in the polls. I have it on good authority that ALFA had to talk him out of accepting Larry Langford’s endorsement a few weeks ago.
If the election were now, ADC, New South, and the Arrington led Coalition would all back Sparks. The problem for Sparks is that all three have a history of bitter fights with Davis–from the Hilliard race to Davis’ support of Bil Pryor for a judgeship to Davis lone ranger support of Obama–and we know their members still voted for Davis agn blacks in his primaries big time. Any bets on how many leave Davis for Sparks?
Sparks also made a dumb rookie move, getting the Arrigton anouncement out so early that as the BNews put it last night, Davis raised him with a UW Clemon endorsement in the same news cycle.
I disagree with one other observation here. The more the black establishment comes out against Davis, the more suburban whites remember that Davis may be an Obama guy, but he is not the local black politician they know and despise.
The idea that the guy or gal at the top can pull down the whole ticket is far-fetched. Judge Cobb was elected in 2006 when Lucy Baxley was losing 57-42 – and Ron Sparks won re-election 59-41 on the same ballot. What I recall from 2006 is that Baxley had a hard time getting good media coverage and so far, that is not a problem for Davis. Heck, just the fact that he’s running is a story.
Del says “The more the black establishment comes out against Davis, the more suburban whites remember that Davis may be an Obama guy, but he is not the local black politician they know and despise.” I would add that every time there’s mention that Davis is not on the good side of AEA/Paul Hubbert, he ticks up a notch with moderate voters who sometimes support Dems, sometimes support Repubs., but who have more often voted with Repubs. in recent elections. These voters may not despise Hubbert the way hard core conservatives do, but they’re not comfortable with the amount of influence he exercises in Montgomery.
I was wondering when we could get the juices flowing. I’m not sure about the how knowledgeable voters are about endorsements. Sparks is not likely to tout an endorsement by ADC or New South or Arrington. Nor do I think Davis will advertise that black leadership is pulling for the white guy. This is not to say that Davis might not say that he is not the choice of the Democratic establishment.
I stand corrected on the 2006 elections, though I thought the DEMS gained a seat in the Alabama Senate. There was a U.S. House pickup for in AL’s 2nd CD.
I read Chuck Dean’s piece in the BHAM NEWS this AM. Thought the U.W. Clemon quote was quite eloquent.
Natalie,
Enjoyed your post. Even though Sue Bell did not run in 2008 your point still is correct. Lucy Baxley beat Twinkle Andress Cavanugh in 2008. Dems also heald Bud Cramers Seat and took over AL-2 with Bright. Obama did not doom dems in Alabama just as Artur did not. Also, in reality the dems did pick up “votes” in the senate in 2006. They beat Dial who was a “DINO”/ really Republican and they brought home the other dissidents except Pruitt(but they will get him in 2010). Also, a friend of mine had you for several classes at BSC a few years ago and said you were great.
Professor,
When you put “FACT” in capital letters in front of something, try to make sure what follows is, you know, factually correct. Sue Bell v. Drayton was ‘06, so, no, Obama didn’t really affect that race.
And your comment at # 6 makes yet another error. Bobby Bright won the 2nd CD in ‘08, not ‘06. What would you say if one of your students was so sloppy with facts in a paper? ;)
JD Hogg,
I got my date wrong–I’m sorry. I need to get up earlier.
mooncat’s observations (comment #5) are interesting.
Obama killed Dems in some key white counties. Look at Cherokee county for example. A dem county where Josh Segall was beaten three to one.
It’s disingenuous for Natalie to hold out bright as an example because he held on to win.
Also, Natalie should know a lot about how Dems have been beating themselves since 1986. She was the polling “tool” used to fabricate a “regression analysis” to take the race away from Graddick which empowered the GOP giving them the nudge they needed to reach the heights they enjoy today.
My monthly math reminder…..if sparks gets 21% of the black vote it’s game over. It won’t matter if Davis gives birth to a gold calf on live TV. However, If Davis wins the primary, it won’t matter if he spends 180 Million Dollars, he still won’t top 38%.
Stop feigning impartiality Natalie ! Your next column should simply say Political Science be damned….I love Artur !
In response to Mr. Bleever–I agree with a couple of things you say: 1986 did do in the DEMS; I did testify in that case about crossover voting. I did testify “under oath,” and I was never paid. Like it or not, regression analysis (or as one of the Graddick lawyers called it, “aggression analysis”) was used to estimate the crossover vote.
Your political arithmetic also is correct; I assume you give Davis about 15 percent of the white vote. But if he gets more than that, Sparks will have to do better among blacks.
If you read Gwen Ifill’s book on the Obama Generation, see if my comments lead you to think I’m in the tank for Davis–he sure does not think so.
“Purple” is my story, and I’m sticking to it.
If Spark’s hope is for the White Democrats along the I-65 Corridor, North of Montgomery that’s not a very large number when there is a compeating Republican Primary and South of Montgomery on I-65 there are just not that many white voters.
Natalie,
Nice post. The gay community, while not monolithic and not huge, is not going to support Davis. He has thrown us under the bus more than once, most recently in his vote for the Defense authorization bill, thus voting for the hate crimes amendment, a couple of days after voting to try to remove the hate crimes. He said in Bessemer when talking about hate crimes that the federal government should not be in the business of telling people how to think. Yet, didn’t the feds do just that in passing civil rights laws in the 60’s? You know, the ones that gave Davis the equality that allows him to run?
He also said, at a different event in birmingham, that gays should quit trying to influence politicians and instead focus on changing the hearts of pastors. As if we aren’t trying to do that. But legislators pass laws, not pastors.
At the DFA training his campaign guy told us he wasn’t worried about the gays, that (they assume) we will vote for him anyway in the general. Maybe true, but gee, don’t tell us you are taking us for granted.
Alas, we are not enamored with Sparks either…but he gave a great answer to me about whether he would sign a hate crimes billat the DFA event. “Sure I would. Jesus didn’t turn his back on anyone, why would I?”
http://www.examiner.com/x-17183-Birmingham-Gay-Community-Examiner~y2009m7d18-Candidates-for-governor-reveal-position-on-hate-crimes
Joe, I am not gay but your crazy if you think Sparks will do anything as governor to help the gay community. He hasn’t taken one liberal or moderate social position besides gambling and that is just because of Milton.
Dr. Davis, did you get a chance to listen to NPR this morning? They discussed Richard Arrington’s “potential” campaign for Birmingham mayor. I thought you might find it interesting.
I have to say how excited I am that you have a blog on here now. I am looking forward to reading your posts and of course the comments on it as well. If only we could have “The Big Show” “Alabama Politics” course about this upcoming election, because I think it will be a good one.
come again, no. 11? For Sparks to beat Davis with 21% of the black vote, Davis would have to get shelled 80-20 with white Democrats. I am a moderate Democrat who is to Davis left on economic issues and to his right on abortion, but my firm and I have seen both AEA polls and other unpublished polls and they show Davis and Sparks about even with white Democrats. If Davis stays within 20 points of Sparks with white Dems, Sparks would need as much 40% of the black vote to pull it off. That math is why nobody truly following this race gives Sparks a snowball’s chance.
I don’t think the Arrington endorsement really will pull too much weight for Sparks. On the contrary, it could help Davis . Besides the obvious “Arrington Curse” that has been cemented by all of his city council/Presidential/any-office-at-all candidates losing in the past few years, it reminds voters that Davis will not bring the unpopular old school political machinery of Bham and elsewhere with him to Montgomery.
And regardless of race or party, it’s important to remember that people are fed up with practically any official who has been associated with Birmingham City or Jefferson County in the last, I don’t know, 2 decades. Sparks has no realistic chance garnering enough black support in the primary to defeat Davis, so this actually bodes well for Davis in the general. The fact that Davis is not backed by the Richard Arringtons, Joe Reeds and Paul Hubberts of the world is really a rose on his nose with a lot of the electorate.
Must we not forget that UW Clemon was a black pioneer and is a civil rights icon whose fame is on level with Arrington’s – but the flip side is his endorsement doesn’t carry the same (stale) baggage Arrington’s does. As for the card game..
UW Clemon=Ace ; Arrington=Joker
Dr. Davis, your post suggests that there is something improper about considering whether a candidate will win before endorsing the canddiate. But parties, groups and individuals make that calculation all of the time, based on the principle that the perfect is the enemy of the good. Pres. Obama is applying this principle to the health care discussion now: he may have strong feelings about what he wants, but he is calculating what he can actually get, and no doubt will settle for half a loaf rather than get nothing. By the same token, from a Democratic perspective, either Davis or Sparks certainly will be better than the Republicans nominee, whoever that may be. Where there is a question as to which Democrat is more likely to win, the answer reasonably can and should guide the decision of whom to support. I don’t have a dog in this fight and won’t pretend to clairvoyance as to the ultimate election outcome, but there is no reason at all to excuse Davis from the normal tests that candidates must pass, including htre test of electability.
To Gracchus: I agree with you. The electability standard has to be met. My point is Davis’s vulnerability is in the general election. No one has or will convince him not to run–if his nomination is very, very, likely, as I believe it is (and all I know now comes from reading the bumps on my head and recalling how the establishment got behind Hillary only to be crushed by Barack here in Alabama), DEMS who want a different candidate going into NOV should be careful in how they go after DAVIS. Both parties have a habit of shooting themselves in the foot; DEMS have perfected this habit, starting in 1986.
Judge U.W. Clemon is black – I didn’t know that until I read Danny’s Sparks / Davis endorsements post.
Maybe candidates and their supporters could provide photos and accompanying text to identify their race so that people who don’t see these politicians in real life are in on the score card.
Please consider this post to be a sarcastic jab at the race-obsessed Democratic Party…
Thank goodness my friends vote based on shared ideology and values, rather than skin color.
BTW, Natalie, you’ve cited two leftie books so far (Dionne, Ifill). Have you read any good red books lately? Note that little red books don’t count.
The last white candidate Richard Arrington endorsed – Joel Montgomery.
You’re in good company, Mr. Sparks.
I am enjoying reading the blog and the comments, but I do have to say that your stated status of “purple” is a little disingenuous since you are well known to be a Democratic observer, consultant and commentator. I guess I’m crimson if you’re purple.
@ Ed (15). What makes you think I believe Sparks will help the gay community? All I did was give his answer to the hate crimes question for which he was more believable than Davis. But other than that he hasn’t said one thing positive toward us. I’m like many, many democrats who are not pleased with either candidate but will vote for whoever wins the primary in the general. Davis may be right. Taking us for granted might be a smart move.
Not believing in equality can get you votes in Alabama. It’s always been that way, why expect it to be any different now?
Good ding from a Davis supporter on Arrington’s endorsement of Joel Montgomery. On a serious tip, Davis has never been the favorite of the black political establishment for a big reason–he does not court them and does not consult them. The Reed animus, for example, has everything to do with Davis completely ignoring Reed on federal patronage. i am not saying this is smart on Davis’ part or even a good idea, but it is not new and it has not seemed to matter.
Where Davis may get in trouble with blacks is if the health care vote is close and he bucks Obama. One guess here says Obama is probably the only political endorsement blacks care about at all.
Good stuff, Natalie. I am white, not gay and a moderate Democrat. I initially was supporting Davis but am chagrined by his vote against gay rights. He also misfired by stridently postulating against the House health bill, saying that it is not good for the people of Alabama (ask his district’s constituents about that). He is becoming the “me too” black candidate to Bradley Byrne and we all know what will happen if they eventually face off for all the marbles. Davis should stay true to his beliefs and not pander. He won’t lose any votes by doing so (as he is now with those two positions I mentioned). His campaign appears to be run by amateurs.
Davis has no base of support, and has actively antagonized any he could have developed. U.W. Clemon gave a “personal” recommendation to his old clerk, but he doesn’t summon up votes. Davis thus far is attracting the support of upper middle class academia, a pretty small sector in this state. He has p.o.’d Siegelman supporters, gays, black voting groups who say his word is no good, and let us not forget the campaign contribution from Bill Canary and rumored deal to keep Leura in the USA office in exchange for BCA support. Besides, voters like country boys in this state.
An addendum to my random thought at 25, one wonders just how much fun the Republicans would have with a pro Siegelman, pro gay rights black Democrat who was closely linked to ADC and New South. I am neither a Davis follower nor a Davis hater, but the politics of liberal bloggers is probably not the best indicator of Alabama public opinion. Save these last talking points for someplace like “left in alabama”.