Davis Leads in Gubernatorial Poll

Artur Davis in MontgomeryPolitico.com posts numbers from a poll done by Capital Survey Research, the polling arm of the Alabama Education Association.

The 900-likely voter survey shows Rep. Artur Davis leading all Republican candidates by between 6 and 12 points in general election match-ups.

Former Judge Roy Moore — the president of the Foundation for Moral Law a hero of the Christian right for his battle to install the Ten Commandments in his court — is the closest, down six, while State Treasurer Kay Ivey is the furthest behind, down twelve.

Davis leads his primary opponent, Ron Sparks, by 30 points in the poll, according to the source.

Gerald Johnson, Director of Capital Survey Research, briefed a meeting of Democratic Party County Chairs on this poll at last weekend’s DemExpo. Three attendees have acknowledged to the Political Parlor that Johnson said that the poll results showed Artur Davis led in head-to-head matchups against Democratic contender Ron Sparks and against each announced Republican candidate.

36 comments to Davis Leads in Gubernatorial Poll

  • Nash Bridges

    Arturdavis.com redirects to Sparks2010.com.

    I wonder why?

    The internet is so much fun for a state which lacks complete broadband coverage because South Central Bell/Bellsouth/AT&T/Charter don’t actually want to compete with anyone.

  • J D Hogg

    2nd look at Roy Moore!

  • 2010

    imagine that – an AEA poll that shows a democrat leading. Laughable…..

  • 2010

    and by the way – the poll shows obama’s approval rating in alabama at 50%. I find that hard to believe folks…..

  • Nash Bridges

    2010, you have to just leave well enough alone.

    The Dixiecrats will make a comeback, Davis has taken your GOP issues and framed them into his message, I hope that makes you a Sad Panda. Davis sounds white and in Dekalb county, who knows, he’ll probably get Teddy Gentry and Randy Owen to endorse him, plus all those old retired folks down in Fairhope who helped you run up the score in 2002 will vote for him since Ted Kennedy has passed, just to say they went to grave honoring the memory of the Anti-Lyndon Johnson.

    End.

  • legaldem

    2010 – You should ask around about this pollster’s past work before dismissing these figures. He’s got a track record of spot-on predictions. Plus, it’s widely known that AEA brass doesn’t like Davis because he won’t play ball. Why in the world would they cook the numbers for him?

  • 2010

    What are you smoking post 6? Believing Baldwin County will mourn Ted Kennedy by voting Democrat? Thanks for the laugh. And saying Davis sounds white…well I will not even touch that remark on your part.

    And yes, I know AEA does not like Davis but they sure as hell like him better than ANY Republican.

  • JD

    AEA doesn’t like Davis because he could bring down their Legislators. Having failed to find anyone to run against Davis that could beat him, they are moving to Plan B.

    Plan B, make sure Davis doesn’t drag down the ticket.

    Step One – Convince the terrified Democrats that Davis is a winner. It’s nice to have your own In House pollster.

  • willie

    So, Davis beats Sparks by 30 points while the Repubs rough each other up… This is looking like a perfect storm for Davis.

  • anonymous

    we’ve been seeing polls for months showing Davis ahead, but everybody dismisses them despite the fact several different groups unaffiliated with Davis (and who have no reason to cook numbers for him) have all come out with the same results. maybe people will believe what some have realized as truth for quite some time – - Davis is the lead Dem in the primary and looks like could be a winner rounding the bases into the general.

  • princeliberty

    As I mentioned in an earlier post, 50 approval for Obama is a joke. That’s the same as he nationally.

    The poll amost surely oversampled democrats and undersampled conservatives.

    But what could be important – but it will be more important to see a better poll showing it – Moore being stronger than James.

    If the early polling shows Moore ahead of James – most of James people will go with Moore.

    Jame’s only argument that he can use to win the fight for the religious fight is the claim Moore no longer a serious candidate.

    But as time passes, the evidence is adding up that James is really talking about the state of affairs of his own candidacy.

  • 2010

    I agree with princeliberty that moore vs james is the most interesting part of the gov’s race so far. sparks will not be any competition to davis in the primary and as for the GOP it seems like a 3 way race between byrne, moore and james. James has been campaigning for over a year, has had staff for over a year and has funneled 1 – 2 million of his own money into it. No doubt Moore and James are fighting over the same type of voter in many ways…Moore may turn out to be James downfall. Unless something changes…and we have plenty of time for that…we could see Byrne and Moore in a run off and James spending a lot of time and money for nothing…..again.

  • JD Hogg

    I’d like to see the actual numbers. Leading 36-30 isn’t the same as leading 53-47. While Davis usually polls ok, he never polls over 50. The GOPers are a bunch of unkowns right now, but my guess is that whatever GOPer emerges from the runoff will have had so much exposure, and some momentum from winning, that he’ll be ahead of Davis in the first post-runoff poll and never look back. Davis will gain nothing from beating Amateur Hour Sparks.

  • Sparks Stache

    Regardless of the Davis vs the world numbers, if the poll has obama at 50% approval in Alabama (tied with national numbers), then that speaks to the credibility of the poll. But it really doesn’t matter, Artur Davis will be the Democrats candidate and we’ll see who shakes loose between James and Byrne. After that, good luck to Artur making up the 600,000 or so votes that Obama couldn’t get in Alabama.

  • anonymous

    Davis isn’t Obama. We all know he is a.) much more conservative than Obama and b.) not an unknown quantity to Alabama voters – he’s been moving around the state for years and people know him and like him. The people who say Davis will perform as Obama did are either ignoring the truth purposefully or oblivious to the process.

  • jack

    Davis made a strategical error when he came out in support of Don Siegleman and bought into the conspiracy theory. It will end up costing in the general because it made him look like a true partisan.

  • Sparks Stache

    16, You overlook the numbers that matter. History has been made, the benchmark set. If your train of thought is prominent throughout the Davis camp then there will be alot of folks scratching their heads on Wednesday after the election, wondering “how did we lose by such a large margin?” Yes we can I guess.

  • donkey

    These numbers were released at the Dem expo last week. I personally don’t buy the Obama 50% number either, I suspect its probably closer to 43% or 42%, and i also don’t buy that Davis has a double digit lead over any Republican.

    I do suspect that Davis is probably in a dead heat with the R’s. Moore is the only one who is well known, and the others are barely ever even in the paper, much less on television. Davis receives more press coverage than any other candidate and most would agree that in the Birmingham market he is well respected even by moderate Republicans.

    I also know for a fact that Bedford Cobb Sparks and some other Dem insiders have polled Davis in general matchups during the past several months and that nobody has yet to release numbers showing Davis as a major liability for Dems. Kind of hard to believe if those numbers existed, the anti Davis Dems would not release them.

    Most important thing about these numbers, after his most active two months of the campaign, Sparks is getting killed and does not even seem to be running up Davis’ negatives.

  • JJ

    Gallup had Obama at 55% a month ago. Why is it hard to think he is a little lower now. You Republicans just don’t want to admit that you have a weak Republican field. Davis is stronger than people want to admit. Also, why doesn’t one of the Republican campaigns release a poll showing them way ahead of Davis?….because their own polls show they are behind or even with him. They don’t want to release that.

  • princeliberty

    55% was Gallup’s national figures. And now that is 50%. Gallup says Alabama is the most conservative state in the country.

    SurveyUSA had Obama at 42 approval and 56 disapproval in a poll taken July 17-19.

    And Obama has only fallen since then. So Obama is probably no better than 40% in Alabama.

    So you probably can take 10 points off Davis to get close to reality.

    But its even worse than that for Davis. Obama is pumping up the Conservative base. So Conservatives are going to come out in huge numbers in 2010.

    And the Obama mania is over and so the Democrat turnout will be down.

    Any undecided voters in a poll taken now are probably more likely to break for the Republicans than the Democrats. Esp. come November 2010 because you can look for Obama to only make things worse for Davis as time passes.

  • willie

    Sparks for State Treasurer!

  • legaldem

    This new survey from AEA appears to be in line with the Public Policy Polling numbers showing Davis in a strong general election position – http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2009/06/alabama-governor-looks-competitive.html.

  • I predict Byrne beats Davis … easily

  • princeliberty

    I predict any Republican defeats easy, but you better hold giving the nod to Byrne. The religious right will not embrace him. And the religious right may come out in this primary in way never seen before.

    Not to mention the libertarian anti-status quo crowd will not find Byrne the status quo Republican candidate appealing at all.

  • 2010

    Byrne is the most capable of any candidate the GOP has. Unfortunately, we do not always nominate the best candidate. We got it right with Riley…and I hope we get it right with Byrne.

  • well, princeliberty, wht’s your prediction?

  • William

    I’ve asked this question before, but didn’t get a straight answer. What is it about Byrne that the “religious right” won’t embrace? Anti-abortion, Christian man, married 28 years, 4 kids, active in his church, pro-homeschooling, etc…

  • donkey

    I’ve said here before that it is way too early to say if Davis is electable next year. A lot of questions, how hard do the gamblers behind Sparks hit him in negative ads, what is Obama’s standing next year, does Davis’ mostly from out of state campaign team understand the state? But he has been been a better more dynamic candidate than I and many others expected. P.S. He also got very lucky that Cobb backed down–she could have gotten away with running to his left on economic issues and she would have threatened his money base.

  • princeliberty

    The race is real early on so I am not sure who will win.

    But I would be real surprised if James does not bomb.

    Therefore, it will come down to Byrne and Moore.

    Which is really a contest between a career politician -Byrne who is tool of the usual Republican elite types – who have no real regard for the agenda of religious and certainly have no regard for the small government folks.

    And Moore who really walks in the ways of the Founding Fathers.

    And Williams I have explained this to you before.

    Its basicly the difference between Reagan and the Bushes.

    Its one the thing to month some conservative lines and far difference thing to have real Constitutional principles.

    Byrne does not even know what the Founding Fathers were about never has studied never was curious.

    He has just done the right things to advance his career.

    So the question do the primary voters want to continue with the Bush style Republican elite than runs the Alabama Republican Party these days.

    Or do the want the real thing?

  • 2010

    Roy Moore is no Ronald Reagan. Please never mention those 2 in the same sentence again.

    If Bob Riley is considered part of the GOP “elite” then give me the elite any time. He has been a hell of a good Governor….the best Governor we have had in recent memory (not that it was too tough to be better than fob, hunt, folsom and siegelman)

  • SamfordDem

    #29, you hit the nail on the head. Davis has ran a campaign that has more or less catered to political junkies so far. That is a smart move this far out from an election, when your primary goal is to accumulate campaign talent, endorsements from influential folks, and money. But when AEA members get an up close look at Davis’ current education policy, he will have to either pivot on that issue or he will suffer. When he gets tough questions about his position on abortion, he will suffer with many Democrats. Davis does not have a glass jaw, but he does have some serious liabilities that can be easily exploited. Unfortunately, Ron Sparks’ campaign has been very lackluster so far and has not taken advantage of these liabilities. This poll does have a seemingly high approval rating for Obama, but I also think SurveyUSA’s numbers are a little low. The truth is probably somewhere in between.

  • Governmental Failure

    This polling is absurd! There would be more truth in saying that I was dating Megan Fox than the legitimacy of these numbers.

    First of all, I do not disagree that Artur is beating “The Stache.” But I refuse to believe that he is up 30 points. Maybe 10 at most, but not 30.

    Second, the only way that Moor would be leading the GOP would be in name recognition. If you even listen to the guy for three minutes, you know that he is little “Moore” than a joke. So, Mr. Moore, how are you going to bring business into the State of Alabama? I’m going to put God back in the schools! That is wonderful that you want God back in the schools, but how is that going to solve our economic woes?

    Lastly, you know that this polling is flawed when Obama is polling at 50% in a state in which he did not even receive 50% of votes on election day! Wasn’t Alabama rated the most conservative state in the US last week? If so, you are telling me that a liberal/borderline socialist is going to be polling above the national average of favorable opinions?

    The numbers just do not add up. Good try Drs. Hubbert and Reid! Maybe next year someone will actually believe the lies you are spreading!

  • William

    Prince Liberty – I guess I didn’t remember your previous post stating how Roy Moore and Tim James have cornered the market on US Constitutional history. My mistake.

    I guess the question is if primary voters want someone who is pro-life, pro-gun, and anti-gay marriage, has taken a “no new taxes pledge” and has a proven history of fighting for conservative principles or someone who just likes talking about those things.

  • Holbrook

    …if you are wondering why ol Davis is supposedly leading…well today I opened up my email account and low and behold, there was an unsolicited email for Davis’ Campaign…hummm…let’s recap, week before last I got an unsolicited email from Axlerod and now one from Davis…it appears that the Chicago Political Machine has now set its sights on Alabama and are pulling out all the stops to have a lap dog for the Idiot in Chief and the Axis of Idiots sitting in the Chief Executive sit in Alabama…I guess I must have been reported to the White House and they feel that I need some reeducation…where have I heard about reeducation before, oh well it slips my mind…we as Alabamians need to stand up and say we will not do ht bidding of Obama and the Limp Wristed Liberals in Congress, we are our own State, and we will elect who we think is the best for the job, not just because they are pushing someone because of his skin color, not because he believes in what is best for Alabama…which is what politics according to Axis of Idiots has become…as a free thinking, a Veteran, and an Alabamian I am going to Roy Moore…he is truly here for Alabama, not to please the want to be Dictators in Washington…if I am not mistaken isn’t unsolicited email called “Spam”, and isn’t it a felony to distribute “Spam”…Davey boy you better check your staffers before you go to jail…

  • Alabamian for Truth

    princeliberty- You must have missed 8th grade American history. See it’s actually the U.S. Constitution which prevents people like Moore from pushing their religious views on others who may or may not share those views. Check out Article 6, Amendment 1, and Amendment 14. You’ll find them all applicable. See Roy Moore actually lost his job a few years back because he violated the Constitution, so your post is–and I’ll be generous here–ironic.

    Holbrook- Ever check out the Interstate road signs? They have numbers on the back to instruct the world government forces where to go when they invade the U.S. You should spread the word before it’s too late. Anyway, you’re right, for whatever our views may be about Obama’s policies, we can all agree he is an idiot. What with his Harvard Law degree and all, he probably even believes the moon landings were real. Plus he’s from Kenya and is a Muslim, let’s not forget. But nevermind all that, because you’re spot on that Davis is really Obama’s pawn in his plot for world domination. Obama thinks that if he can get one of his African-American pawns to be governor of a conservative state like Alabama, he will have succeeded. All of this, of course, after Obama has brought Communism to the U.S. under the disguise of trying to help people get health care. Keep spreading the word Holbrook. You and Roy Moore are exactly what we need here in Alabama, and to defeat those dictators in Washington. Godspeed.

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