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Kay Ivey’s announcement today gives the Republicans five candidates vying for the nomination in the 2010 governor’s race: Robert Bentley, Bradley Byrne, Ivey, Tim James, and Roy Moore.
A GOP Senate insider had told the Parlor about eight weeks ago that a GOP state Senator was considering entering the race “in six to eight weeks.” This week the Senate insider confirmed that it was Charles Bishop who was considering the race, and that Bishop has decided to pass.
This leaves ADECA Director Bill Johnson as the only Republican known publicly to be still considering the race. Hard to picture him elbowing his way through that crowd into a run-off for the nomination, but then again the more crowded the field gets the easier it gets to imagine a scenario where someone unexpected makes it into a run-off.
The wild card on the Republican side looks to be Roy Moore. He will have a fervent core of support, and the unanswered question is whether that core has sustained its size to a degree that it can propel Moore into a runoff, or whether it has shrunk to the point that he will not be a major player. Moore is a polarizing figure in that I run across few people neutral on the idea of his candidacy. Given that, it’s hard for me to imagine a scenario where he could attract enough supporters in a run-off to claim the nomination.
On the Democratic side, I tip my hat to Sue Bell Cobb who has played her cards so close to the vest that we are only left to guess as to her intentions. But since we can only guess, I will: I have never thought it made any sense for her to enter the race, and so I still suppose that ultimately she won’t. One reader with some familiarity with the situation tells me that she has not confided her intentions to staff members. That’s a smart move for stemming leaks, but not good for reassuring staff members who, according to one email I received, “haven’t had a good night’s sleep since her name was first announced.”
Politico.com today has an article today on the Anybody But Artur Davis (ABAD) contingent of Democrats:
Alabama Democratic Conference Chairman Joe Reed and Alabama Education Association Executive Secretary Paul Hubbert confirmed to POLITICO this week that they had been holding meetings with potential Democratic primary challengers to Davis, a four-term congressman who is widely regarded as the leading contender for his party’s nomination.
To say that Reed and Hubbert, two Montgomery-based power brokers who have dominated the state’s political scene for decades, have little love lost for Davis would be something of an understatement. The 41-year-old Birmingham congressman has made a habit of attacking the state’s political establishment, which puts his campaign squarely at odds with not only the current Republican administration but also two of the most powerful Democrats in Alabama.
Question: how much money would Hubbert have to put into a primary race to help a candidate defeat Davis? And won’t that represent money that he’s not putting into legislative races in a year when the GOP is aggressively promoting the idea that it can take over the legislature? (This is another reason why a Cobb candidacy is a win all the way around for the GOP.)
If Artur Davis wins the nomination, some down-ticket Democrats may feel a need to distance themselves from Davis, but you have to imagine that party loyalists Hubbert and Reed will come around and support him.
Ron Sparks tells George Talbot in so many words that he’s content to play the tortoise in the story of the Tortoise and the Hare, and Talbot is right that underdogs are not out of it. As for other Democrats, it’s not too late by any means for another to enter the race, but Davis has set an aggressive enough tone for the race that other challengers (short of the stature of Cobb) probably won’t want to let grass grow under their feet.
Related Articles:
- Kay Ivey to Announce for Governor on Wed.
- James Finding Moore Support
- Friday Bits
- Ron Sparks on Glenn Beck
- Crosstabs on 2010 Governor's Poll from PPP
- Byrne & Davis Strongest in New Poll for 2010 Governor's Race
- Bentley Announces Candidacy for Governor
- ADECA Chief Considers Run for Governor
- Cobb and the Governor's Race
Legislative Dispatch
Purple Dot Connection
2010 Big List
2010 Senate Elections
2010 House Elections
Press Releases
I have heard (but do not know for sure – this was told to me) that Kay Ivey’s Montgomery kick-off was embarrassingly poorly attended – about 20 people watching.
She has no chance – yet she soldiers on. It is approaching pathetic, and it’s the FIRST DAY of the campaign.
I hear Davis has some more big announcements in the can. He is going to run laps around the competition on both sides in terms of running a modern campaign.
joe reed and paul hubbert are terrible for alabama and anyone with good sense knows it. good for artur for keeping his distance. i will not vote for artur but I am glad he sticks his finger in the eye of reed and hubbert. if he gets the nomination who else are they going to support???? the Republican? hardly. I bet they are both fuming at the thought of davis being the dem and byrne being the nominee for the GOP. Both Davis and Byrne know reed and hubbert are terrible for Alabama.
The point about what effect Moore will have in the GOP primary is key. No way he can win the nomination but the effect he may have on who is in a possible GOP runoff should not be overlooked. I think James worries most about Moore as they share a certain constituency. That is why we see press releases from the James camp notifying us all that some “former moore supporters” are now with James. As a Republican I am just glad Moore is not running as an indy. He could have acted as a spoiler like ross perot did back in the day and skim off just enough likely GOP voters to help elect a dem. Glad that is not the case this election.
As for Cobb – I would love to see her vacate the bench and run but NO WAY she will do that this time.
And maybe Hubbert and Reed will retire……we can only hope.
Wamp – Please define “running a modern campaign”.
Excellent post, Danny. You make an very good point about Hubbert and Reed not wanting to waste money on an alternative to Davis when they have House races to win. Why send good money after bad?
I interviewed Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb yesterday and I was hedging on even asking her. I said “So is it safe to say rumors still true?” And her response “I have not made a decision” and that was the end of it. It is not something talked around in the office either. But I do know if she ran, many people (within the office, and citizens of the state) would be sad she would leave the bench.
And doesn’t Reed have something to do…he’s getting old… maybe play golf or take up a hobby (other than politics?).
Anyone can run for governor if they want, regardless if someone high in one of the 2 parties likes it or not. Anyone can run for governor. I think we should be reminded of that….Which is why we live in a democracy!
How does Artur gain more votes than Obama, who lost by over 450,000 votes?
artur will not gain more votes than obama. period. that may be another reason hubbert and reed oppose him…they not only dislike him personally but they think he absolutely cannot win and may actually drag down the ticket. Let’s all be honest, the dems would be better off running ron sparks, sue bell or folsom jr. for gov. the problem is, artur will win the nomination.
and if james or byrne is the GOPer (and one of them will be), have mercy on AEA’s poor soul…..
Danny,
Have you heard that Susan Pace Hamill is running as a Democrat?
http://bit.ly/49PK8
I love how so many on his blog read poll results that show Davis is leading all comers. Results showing he is 10-12 points ahead of where Obama was, yet decide that since they think a black man can’t be Govenor, they will just dismiss those numbers.
Poll numbers are nothing more than someone’s guess. Some are better at it than others. Vote results are real, they happened
Kristopher,
The post connected to your link has been corrected to say that Hamill is running for House District 63 that Robert Bentley current holds. :)
JD – my advice to you is to stop talking.
Wamp, just because you don’t like what someone says does not mean it lacks validity.
I dont think Davis can win in November but dont discount his poll numbers by Anzalone. He is supposed to be one of the best. With that being said, any political poll is only a represenative snapshot of an continually changing electorate.
I almost wonder if Davis plants these stories on Reed and Hubbert being opposed to him. Not only do they not hurt him, they give him a boost with white suburban independents. I am still of the wait and see attitude re Davis’ electability (polls a year out don’t mean much,Siegelman led Baxley and Moore was even with Riley this time in 05) but it is true that he is running a clever smart campaign designed to make him look like an independent who will stand up to his own party. At the same time, as anyone who has made certain calls knows, he is quietly lining up support from some major Dem money people.
A person who works at the Capitol told me this morning she counted 42 people total – including media and the people standing with Kay – at her announcement. Fewer than 20 viewers. Bad bad bad.
I agree that Artur is wise to tell everyone he is anti establishment yet call on the king of all trial lawyers, beasley to line up money for him. Bright does the same thing.
Likewise, Artur’s public “feud” with reed and hubbert is clever. While it may have a grain of truth to it, at the end of the day they will support the democrat without question.
JD, how do you equate Obama’s total vote count in Ala. in 2008 with Davis’ vote count in 2010? That makes no logical sense, other than equating a vote against Obama as a vote against a black man. Obama, unlike Davis, is a northen Dem, a type we generally distrust down here. He also was packaged as much more of a liberal elitist. Davis worked his way through college and went to law school on scholarship, just to return to his hometown in Montgomery to be a prosecutor and care for his ailing mother.
Obama was packaged as a liberal, yankee, socialist, Muslim sent here from our enemies to destroy this country from the inside out. Call me naive, but I just don’t see the GOP being able to package Davis the same way. Now, I am not advocating a Davis candidacy, but I find it odd that all the James and Byrne supporters on this blog go to great lengths to demonstrate Davis’ lack of viability. If I supported James or Byrne and I thought Davis would loose to either, I would let the Davis train roll on, unencumbered, to its certain demise.
Just my observations.
Comment 14 – if you think polling is “just someone’s best guess,” I think you should stop coming in here like your opinion is one people should listen to as well.
Let me preface this by saying I am not offering this to defend Kay Ivey – but in response to #17, I personally counted only 55, including media (and myself, and at least one person that I now know was from the Ron Sparks campaign), at the Artur Davis announcement several months ago at the State Archives. That is not many more than Kay had show up – at least by my standards, but many seem to consider his campaign a veritable juggernaut.
Wamp?
Is this posting part time for you?
Is your full time job as a Mulla in Iran suspressing Free Speech?
ummmm…..wamp……polling basically is someone’s best guess – or prediction. an educated guess for sure but a guess nonetheless. the only decisive answer comes when the actual votes are cast.
2010 – are you an evolution denier or is this the only science you repudiate?
…….yawn……..
with your impressive rhetorical skills, you will be an asset to any political organization.
#21 – good point, but I would hasten to point out Kay Ivey has an office with HER EMPLOYEES right there at the capitol. So even her tiny turnout was inflated. She had virtully zero attendance at a campaign kickoff. Artur wasn’t a world beater but he did have actual attendees.
A poll is a snapshot of people’s opinions and dutiful response to the specific question they were asked on the specific day that it was taken. They can mean much or they can mean little depending on the circumstances.
If Cobb gets out there and the public finds out what has happened to the court system under her leadership, she is dead meat. Cronyism and spending out the wazzoo. Courts across the state are hosed becuase she turned over control to a bunch of cronies.
A few objective thoughts here based on eyewitness and news accounts…Byrne and Davis drew strong but not out of sight crowds at their main announcement event, Davis at the Harbert Center, Byrne in Baldwin County. Sparks drew a solid crowd at his Fort Payne event, Ivey drew no crowds anywhere.
Davis drew a decent crowd–75 to 80–at his Montgomery event, decent given that it was Friday and neither AEA or state employees nor the Party put out the word for people to be there. Byrne drew a similar crowd at his Huntsville kickoff event, impressive given that it isway outside his base. He drew about half that at the Montgomery announcement. Sparks drew an Ivey size crowd in Montgomery for his opening even there.
Only Davis did a second kickoff event, and four different news organizations put it at 500, which would make it the only truly large crowd any of these candidates has drawn. Impressive given that it was a Saturday and that Davis has no known organization behind them.
Does anybody care? Only for this reason, it appears that Davis and Byrne are making inroads with rank and file voters in their parties and that they are creating some early but real enthusiasm. Their supporters seem to really believe in them. Sparks and Ivey have some name rec but no obvious grassrooots appeal. Moore has his fan base but it is not clear that it can grow at all. Outside this blog, nobody but nobody is talking about Tim James.
@30 you are very wrong about James. Lots of people are talking about his grassroots organization – and a lot of them work for Bradley Byrne.
Anon (Post 31) – That’s quite an outrageous claim. Do you have any evidence to support this “theory”?
James has been able to front his campaign a lot of money and therefore put together a staff that has been working for the past year or so. Obviously, I would think they are a step ahead in terms of organization. Others will be playing catch up in that regard… I think Byrne can catch up – I doubt Bentley and Ivey ever will. I do not know enough about Moore to comment on what organization he may or may not have in his cult like following.
#30- Davis did not have 75 to 80 at his Montgomery event – I know because I was there, and counted. There were 55, including media. Just like the Birmingham News inflated badly the number at his Harbert Center event earlier that day. (I was also there.) I am not against Davis – I will vote for him as now stands, but feel his campaign is not being up front with some of the claims they are making, and don’t realize they are in a race where claims are now watched and remembered.
How sick — how SICK — is it when we have to discuss an entire election cycle in the context of one man’s involvement?
In our democratic system, if there could ever be a sign that too much power is concentrated in one individual, this would be it.
It’s ridiculous how much power Hubbert wields in Alabama. It’s absolutely ridiculous.
Hubbert is terrible for this state…period.
@32 – my “support” for this “outrageous” claim was the fact that a paid Byrne staffer I will gladly ID to Danny told me that in my office just yesterday.
It’s not outrageous. Not in the least. You are wrong.
to claim that “a lot of them” work for Byrne is not accurate then is it? A lot is not the same as a single person expressing the fact that James is a step ahead of everyone in terms of organization. As I said before, I agree with that. I am sure everyone does as James has been working for a year or so. But don’t use the word “a lot of them” referring to Byrne’s staff. Best I know, he does not even have “a lot” of staff at this point.
Artur is BONKERS if he thinks that vote today doesn’t count! That is classic playing both sides and it won’t fool ANYBODY!