Posted by A reader has done the heavy-lifting for us and put into spreadsheet form the crosstabs from the PPP poll mentioned here yesterday. The font size below may make you squinty as I tried to squeeze it into a post that would fit many browsers and formats.
You may also see it online here in Google Docs (complete) or in this Excel file (Davis only vs. Repubs), both with less eyestrain. This represents a good faith effort and is correct as far as I know. Inform us if you see any typos or errors of any sort.
Let us know what you glean from the info.
Edit: Edited above to show that the Excel file does not have the #’s with Sparks.
Edit: Result for Byrne in “Older than 65″ crosstab in matchup with Davis corrected to 38.
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Base | Liberal (14%) | Moderate (37%) | Conservative (49%) | Men (46%) | Women (54%) | Democrat (38%) | Republican (41%) | Other (21%) | African-American (28%) | White (69%) | Other (3%) | 18 to 29 (11%) | 30 to 45 (25%) | 46 ro 65 (44%) | Older than 65 (20%) | |
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Byrne | 39% | 13% | 27% | 56% | 43% | 36% | 9% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 52% | 25% | 31% | 42% | 41% | 38% |
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Davis | 35% | 70% | 50% | 13% | 36% | 34% | 67% | 8% | 29% | 68% | 21% | 44% | 42% | 37% | 33% | 31% |
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Undecided | 26% | 17% | 23% | 31% | 22% | 30% | 23% | 23% | 37% | 22% | 28% | 31% | 27% | 22% | 26% | 31% |
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Base | Liberal (14%) | Moderate (37%) | Conservative (49%) | Men (46%) | Women (54%) | Democrat (38%) | Republican (41%) | Other (21%) | African-American (28%) | White (69%) | Other (3%) | 18 to 29 (11%) | 30 to 45 (25%) | 46 ro 65 (44%) | Older than 65 (20%) | |
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James | 35% | 12% | 22% | 51% | 40% | 31% | 8% | 62% | 28% | 11% | 45% | 15% | 31% | 40% | 34% | 31% |
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Davis | 37% | 71% | 52% | 17% | 36% | 38% | 68% | 12% | 31% | 69% | 24% | 39% | 47% | 38% | 37% | 33% |
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Undecided | 28% | 17% | 26% | 32% | 24% | 31% | 23% | 25% | 41% | 20% | 30% | 46% | 22% | 22% | 29% | 36% |
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Base | Liberal (14%) | Moderate (37%) | Conservative (49%) | Men (46%) | Women (54%) | Democrat (38%) | Republican (41%) | Other (21%) | African-American (28%) | White (69%) | Other (3%) | 18 to 29 (11%) | 30 to 45 (25%) | 46 ro 65 (44%) | Older than 65 (20%) | |
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Moore | 38% | 11% | 26% | 55% | 40% | 36% | 14% | 64% | 30% | 12% | 49% | 26% | 32% | 44% | 38% | 34% |
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Davis | 41% | 70% | 57% | 20% | 43% | 40% | 70% | 16% | 39% | 69% | 30% | 44% | 47% | 40% | 41% | 40% |
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Undecided | 21% | 13% | 18% | 25% | 17% | 17% | 16% | 20% | 30% | 19% | 21% | 30% | 21% | 17% | 21% | 27% |
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Base | Liberal (14%) | Moderate (37%) | Conservative (49%) | Men (46%) | Women (54%) | Democrat (38%) | Republican (41%) | Other (21%) | African-American (28%) | White (69%) | Other (3%) | 18 to 29 (11%) | 30 to 45 (25%) | 46 ro 65 (44%) | Older than 65 (20%) | |
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Ivey | 31% | 13% | 21% | 43% | 34% | 28% | 5% | 54% | 30% | 8% | 40% | 26% | 35% | 36% | 28% | 27% |
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Davis | 39% | 72% | 15% | 20% | 38% | 39% | 71% | 14% | 28% | 68% | 27% | 34% | 42% | 40% | 37% | 38% |
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Undecided | 31% | 15% | 28% | 37% | 27% | 34% | 23% | 32% | 42% | 24% | 33% | 40% | 23% | 24% | 34% | 35% |
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Base | Liberal (14%) | Moderate (37%) | Conservative (49%) | Men (46%) | Women (54%) | Democrat (38%) | Republican (41%) | Other (21%) | African-American (28%) | White (69%) | Other (3%) | 18 to 29 (11%) | 30 to 45 (25%) | 46 ro 65 (44%) | Older than 65 (20%) | |
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Byrne | 41% | 23% | 27% | 55% | 43% | 38% | 15% | 69% | 20% | 20% | 50% | 25% | 36% | 45% | 41% | 38% |
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Sparks | 27% | 49% | 35% | 14% | 31% | 23% | 47& | 9% | 25% | 38% | 22% | 35% | 33% | 30% | 22% | 28% |
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Thanks, Danny. Now perhaps Factfinder would like to point out where the mysterious “bad crosstab” for James is, since it sure seems to be well hidden above . . .
I would say James’ crosstabs look an awful lot like Bradley Byrne’s actually . . .except James does better with black voters . . . James also beats Kay Ivey with moderates and is as popular as Byrne with young voters . . .where exactly is this bad crosstab?
Since that’s what this post is for, I’ll re-post my thoughts on the crosstabs from the other thread.
Here’s the percent of the GOP vote each Republican candidate gets among Republican voters in the general election matchups tested:
Byrne – 69, 69
Moore – 65, 64
James – 62, 58
Ivey – 54, 48
This tells me the pool of GOP voters who find Byrne acceptable is slightly larger than those that find James acceptable. To the extent that can be extrapolated to the primary race, I guess I’d prefer to be in Byrne’s shoes. However it’s possible that most of the voters who find Byrne acceptable PREFER James, in which case I’d rather be James. My hunch is lots of Republicans who will accept James prefer Moore, which is why, at this ridiculously early point, I’ll predict:
Byrne – 40%
Moore – 27%
James – 18%
Ivey – 10%
Bentley – 5%
Runoff 60/40 Byrne over Moore. If James makes it to the runoff with Byrne – it’s Byrne 53, James 47.
That’s very good JD.
Anon, I agree there’s not much of a difference in the crosstabs for Byrne v. James, but your assertion the James does better among blacks is just plain wrong. Byrne loses blacks to Davis 10-68, James 11-69 – no difference. And Byrne does better than James with blacks against Sparks, 20-38 vs. 10-48. And if you want to say that James 11% is better than Byrne’s 10% of blacks v. Davis, then certainly Byrne’s 52% of whites is better than James 45%, right?
JD I don’t think there’s a snowball’s chance in hell of Sparks being the nominee, so I didn’t pay much attention to black support in that matchup. It’s true.
I think what you say is valid; it’s just that James looks about as good as Byrne across the board here, and that is good for him.
Again, I’ll be the redneck that asks this… why -other than racial bias- does Mr. Davis draw such a large portion of the African American vote? Can someone give me a good reason.
I do like how the percentage is atleast 10% different for Mr. Byrne’s caucasian demographic.
These poll numbers just don’t look right, especially the undecided percentage. No way that many people are undecided with Davis or Moore in it, especially AAs with Davis.
post 6…….. a good part of it is racial bias.
Anonymous, the weakness I see in James is his soft showing with voters 46-46. That should be his constituency against Davis. Even Moore outperforms him there, and the only one to do worse is Ivey. He is virtually tied with Davis at 65+, which is also surprising.
I could be wrong, but those are not good numbers in the crosstabs for James. Perhaps, Anon, you owe FF an apology.
Correction: 46-65.
There is no undecided because if you were undecided you hung up! This was an automated poll and the margin of error on all automated polls is higher than a live poll becuase you can never be 100% sure you are talking to an adult. (Yes I know all children tell the truth and would NEVER pose to be an adult answering an automated poll). That having been said – I do not see this poll as a negative or positive for anyone but I do have a few observations.
1. Only 14% of the respondants are self identified liberals. With 28% of the sample being African American – not to mention the white poulation – I find this to be complete out of whack. Heck Obama got 38% of the state wide vote, THAT’s your liberal bench mark.
2. IF you glean anything from this PoS poll I would say that Bradley has problems and is not the steam-rolling front runner many make him out to be. This poll was taken immediately after his announcement – HUGE recall for the otherwise unknowning respondant. I would guess that Bradley has received more than 200 front page articles in Alabama in the last three years as chancellor. He has been praised for his work cleaning up coruption in the JUCO system, fighting AEA and double dippers. He got props for his help in the convictions of Sue, EB and Roy. SO WHY IS HE IN THE MARGIN OF ERROR WITH JAMES?
James hasn’t been heard from since 2002 and I’d be willing to be he hasn’t had more than six front page articles in the entire state since he announced. Until a month ago he didn’t even have a yard sign up and that’s the largest mass media effort he has had since 2002. Yes I know how effective grassroots and the internet can be but COME ON – he didn’t make up that much ground to a guy who has been the darling to the media establishment for cleaing up the state for three years and hundreds of featured articles. Bradley is the most well known and there is somethign that is making people hesitant. This early out there should be a massive name id advantange and a significant gap between those identifying with him and those identifying with others. It shouldn’t be neck and neck!
Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not ready to throw in for James, Moore or anyone else. Far from that, I think any one of these republicans can find gold or fall in a ditch and all of us are waiting to see what Roy does any way. I’m just sharing what was obvious to me in this poll, somethign is wrong with Byrne if he is not opening with a large lead and his folks better start focus-grouping to find out exacly what that is.
3. Nothing is fixed, there is no leader and all of us better anticipate that there is a lot of inner-party tug of war to come with little money available for flashy media campaigns in the republican circles. This poll and Artur’s poll tell me that things are not as they appear. This poll tell me that the republican race is WIDE OPEN – contrary to what we are all hearing in the phone calls and back rooms.
4. Moore could change the whole game, exciting the right as Artur will excite the AA community. You could see a run off and remember what happened with Blount and James in ‘98…progressive/moderate voters don’t vote nearly as much as little old ladies with bibles and umbrellas. And hey – he could always run as an independent (heck I heard talk that the republicans might not let him qualify). What a dream come true for the dems. Moore gets tons of publicity, writes new books and kills any chance that the Repubs had for Novemeber as a payback for how nice they have always been to him!
5. Don’t under estimate the cross over from Democrats who find no interest in Artur will be a changer. Bradley’s deisre to assinate Paul Hubbard will win over some and turn off others. James might talk too much God and not enough about jobs and Kay…well LOOK at what she got 31% I would call that you baseline ANTI-ARTUR vote :)
This was way to long so let’s get back to reality…. Folks, its more than eleven months away from the election. No one in Alabama is even thinking about who is going to win except for Danny, me and the rest of the sico political junkie losers reading these posts :) Go enjoy the summer. Let the candidates raise money and plug back in after Labor Day with the first 15 percent of Alabama will begin to even realize there is a campaign coming up ;)
“somethign is wrong with Byrne if he is not opening with a large lead and his folks better start focus-grouping to find out exacly what that is.”
No one knows who he is. That can be easily remedied, no focus group required
What campaign?
the comments here that byrne is so well known to the average voter out there is something i find amusing. please ask how many people who the chancellor of the two year college system is (or war) and see what they say…. or ask them who bradley byrne is and see what they say. i hate to tell you this folks but most people do not even know who their own state senator or house rep is. gimme a break that bryne is known by most everyone. the electorate is not that in tune. to say byrne has huge name recognition and has received glorious praise from the press and therefore he should be blowing every one else away is just not realistic. i think james and byrne are likely equal in name recognition. james has run statewide before and is the son of a 2 term gov. i would think the person with the most recognition, although it may be in a bad way, is roy moore. Help us all if he wins anything………………
sorry – “or war” should be “or was” !
BD I will strongly disagree with you at post #9. Byrne is at 41%, James at 34% with the demo you cite, yet you say that shows a big problem for Jmmes. I would remind you the margin of error is 3.8%, so Byrne may be just barely ahead of James with that demo when that MOE is taken into account. And ALL OTHER CANDIDATES – MOORE, IVEY AND BRADLEY BYRNE – LOSE to Davis in the over-65 demo -James is closer to Davis than ANY OTHER CANDIDATE. How is that a bad crosstab for James? You are reaching here.
I don’t owe any apology to FF from THOSE crosstabs. That is marginal, not decisive.
BD – just as an aside – did you not notice that Byrne loses with over-65s to Davis – and by more than James? That was one of your two central points, and it was off-base.
Clearly you misread somethign I didn’t say Byrne was known by everyone I said he has had more attention paid to him by the media in the last three years than any of the other candiates. No one has heard a peep from James since ‘02. Tim got 9% of the vote in 02, almost eight years ago. Can you tell me ran for against shelby in 04 as a dem only six years ago?
I’m not debating that people know who Bradley is I’m actually making the point that he is not the front runner many have set him up to be But think of it this way, if folks have never heard of bradley then they damn sure don’t know who tim is. Considering the amount of front page attention Bradley has gotten I would say people have certainly had more ‘opportunity’ to know about Bradley than James. Without a doubt, the fear factor is Moore – and for everone too.
I’ll sum this up: there is not a “bad” crosstab for James in there. It doesn’t exist. His crosstabs are similar to Byrne’s. Bradley are the best – but only slightly. There is NOT a “wow look at this” bad crosstab for James in there. There just isn’t – even though a poster claimed there was, then refused to cite it. As shown above, someone tried to say James’ 31% showing with over 65s was bad . . .but failed to notice that Byrne only got 28%. That is a fact – it’s in the poll.
This poll shows no major problem areas for James.
And that was my point, which I believe I have proven through actual citations fropm the poll.
Also according to the voter turn out for 2008 the age breakdown was 9% for
all i can say is…can we please get moore to move out of state????? we don’t need him as a spoiler in the gop primary in any way. but then again, i guess we are lucky he is not running as an indy. if he did that he might have helped someone like davis win the election come nov.
I have no idea what happened except to say that cut and paste from excel doesn’t work so well on blog text box :).
2008 Primary, all voters break out by age
18-29 9%
30-45 20%
46-65 40%
over 65 30%
Very different from the poll
Ok, Anon. I give up. I am no match for your decisive number crunching. I will slink off into the corner with Fact Finder. You have earned your wage today, Anon.
Hey ‘2010′ who said Moore isn’t running as an independent? I’m not sure ‘poll review’ doesn’t have a good point. Moore may claim that the Republicans are lost right now (and could make a good case for that with the votes on stimulus). You can’t say he’s not crazy enough to try it.
BD I owe YOU an apology- but it really isn’t my fault. The 28% cited above for Byrne with over 65s SHOULD be 38% – and that (28%) was the number I was using. (I went back to the original numbers and saw that the one on this page is a mistake for Byrne). Still, all GOP candidates except Byrne lose over 65s to Davis, and James is only 38%-31% behind Bradley, so I don’t think that is a bad demo for him.
In short, I think my conclusions are valid.
Hey BD I DID say I was wrong on that one number! I apologized to YOU! I still think my conclusions are sound though . . .
Thanks, anonymous, for pointing out the change that needed to be made. I have made the correction.
Anyone see any others?
I have this question. If Moore does get into a runoff with Byrne does anyone remember what happened the last time a moderate met a conservative in a primary? Goolsby is already working for Bradley. Looks like the past can be the prologue.
Moore won’t make the runoff. He’ll be in single digits by December.
PLEASE let this state be more sane than to put Moore anywhere close to a run off. and to post 24 – thus far moore has said he is running in the GOP primary. Assuming he sticks to that – he cannot later appear ont he ballot for 2010 as an indy…..
The most interesting number in this poll is that Davis and Sparks poll consistently almost the same numbers with white voters. A little variation here and there, but about the same. Given that Sparks has won statewide and has unmistakable rural appeal, he should have a bigger edge over a black congressman in a black district. While Cobb was not polled, these numbers undercut the claim that Davis would be a significant drag on the ticket.
I do not buy into the “Byrne is the frontrunner narrative” here. His 39% against Davis is barely above James or the supposedly unelectable Moore. Even if you do buy that this survey shows him doing better, it seems that it may be a function of his having more appeal to independents and soft Democrats. That won’t help him win the nomination if Davis or a Davis Cobb fight is keeping those folks in a Democratic primary.
Another interesting piece–Davis’ good showing with voters over 65. He leads that group in every matchup except Byrne. While a nice chunk of these may be black, wouldn’t you expect Davis to get destroyed with whites in this category, to the point that it would depress his overall numbers.
I do think there are too may blacks in this sample 28% is not going to happen for Davis if 25-26 is about the turnout level BO got. However, since I don’t think anyone disputes Davis would end up getting 93-95 of this vote in the general, as opposed to the lower numbers he is getting now because blacks outside the big cities and his district have never heard of him, I think these numbers today may balance out to be about right.
For those discounting Byrne’s front runner status, James needed to be way ahead in this poll. Byrne will have an almost unlimited war chest. That will be hard to beat even if all candidates are equall.
And by the way, for those claiming that with the margin of error taken into account that Byrne and James are close. The margin of error could just as easily go in the opposite direction meaning James is getting crushed
Moore has to run as a republican or is campaign has committed MAJOR violations by operating more than 12 months before the November General election. Only candidates in the major parties could start operations in June, 12 Months before the primaries
#32 – in the immortal words of Ron Burgundy : “That doesn’t make any sense, Brian.”
What part of it do you not understand?
http://blog.al.com/spotnews/2009/06/former_alabama_teacher_could_q.html
i know this is off point…but…. you just got to love paul hubbert and AEA. This case shows the extremes they have gone to – to protect their teachers. Thanks, Paul. And to those that AEA supports (mainly DEMOCRATS)……. you should be ashamed.
“James needed to be way ahead in this poll.” It’s JUNE 2009 DUDE – a whole year out. Why would he need to be “way ahead?”
I think he’s doing pretty well for someone who has never held political office- according to this poll he is outperforming one two-time statewide elected official and is very close to the presumed GOP frontrunner.
Without question, people in Montgomery have noticed that Bradley Byrne is very close to the field. That isn’t good for him.
And as far as “unlimited war chests” – James has a personal fortune; Byrne does have the business community for now, but more polls like this and his financial support could slip a bit. They like sure things, and he is far from that at this date.
In any event, the only candidates who will have the money will be James and Byrne. Roy won’t have it and Kay is finished.
i do agree that roy and kay are not going to make the cut. this is a two person race for the GOP….byrne and james. it will be interesting to see if byrne can raise the money people expect him to and also if james is willing to spend his own money if needed. as for artur – i think he has it made. ron sparks is soooo 2006.
common sense I think we all get you are a Byrne guy, but what kind of unlimited war chest do you see coming in a republican political system normally funded by insurance companies, banks and manufacturing businesses. There are three supreme court races, a goal to challege both the house and senate for republican domination and the governor’s race. I would say there will be less than 50% of the money available for 2010 that – in all races – than there was for 2006 considering the economic conditions alone. That war chest looks like a piggy bank.
Good points anonomie
i agree somewhat with post 39 and it will effect every candidate. james has deep pockets…but how much of his personal money is he willing to spend? i guess we will see……….
I don’t think James will spend a bunch of his own money if he thinks he is behind. So if he opens up his own piggy bank it means he has numbers that say he can win.
james may also open up his piggy if he just can’t raise any money otherwise….
Possibly 2010 – but he’s a business man. If he starts spending his own money he’ll have committments from contributors to more than match it. I think – given the people he has on board – he’ll raise serious money. But Bradley has BCA and most of the bigger money.
post 44, let’s just hope roy moore can’t raise any serious money. I doubt that he can but some nuts from out of state may send him 100 bucks here and there…
Would be interesting to know how much Byrne and Davis are raising right now. This poll confirms what most donors think: as of today, that a Davis v. Byrne race is likely. Some of the earlier posts challenging Byrne’s strength in the crosstabs are interesting but not two people outside this blog or the campaign staffs are going to look at that. All they will hear is that Davis is beating everybody but Byrne and that Byrne is narrowly beating Davis.
Want to circle a date on your calendar? Davis, Byrne and the others at the BCA for a candidate’s forum in early August. If they have their A game, That event is a 50,000 fundraiser for Davis and a hundred thousand dollar deal for Byrne.
#46 I don’t know that this poll “confirms” that a Byrne vs. Davis race is “likely.” Byrne is very close to two opponents and relatively close to 3; that doesn’t add up to “likely” or – at this point – even “probable.” I hope you don’t go to the track with logic like that . . .