Pudner on HD 6

Subject: Williams wins huge - outpolls all Democrats combined
   From: John Pudner
   Date: 10:15 pm

HUNTSVILLE, AL - May 26, 9:45 p.m. - Phil Williams, endorsed by the Alabama Farmers Federation, won a great come-from-behind victory tonight for the Republican nomination to replace Sue Schmitz in House District 6 (Huntsville).

When we first polled the race, Williams had only 8% of the vote and was in third place behind Glen Watson and Tommy Carter.  However, when given his background, voters loved his bio, including the work his wife has done in the community and the fact that their combined success in business would prevent him from being beholden to anyone.  As a successful high-tech businessman with the proven ability to create jobs, voters believe he is ideally suited to represent them in tough economic times.

By one week before the election, these messages had started to sink in and we polled him ahead for the first time, taking a 36% to 32% lead over Glenn Watson.  He continued to surge every day.  A key part of the turnout operation was the  1,627 voters we identified that favored Williams, and were called one last time this afternoon to be reminded there was an election going on their first day after a 3-day holiday.  This was just one small complement to an excellent campaign run by Williams and his wife throughout, but the fact that his opponents failed to run a phone campaign today helped Williams win the turnout battle and get over 50% to avoid a runoff.  Reminder phone calls are absolutely essential on elections the day after a 3-day weekend.  His 52% was followed by Watson (24.3%), Tommy Carter (20.5%) and Frank Prabel (3.3%).

Unlike the Republican race, the Democratic race never changed.  Jenny Rhodes Askins led almost 2-to-1 during our initial poll, and held almost the exact same lead all 6 times we polled the race.  The final results were almost identical to the polls, as she finished with 62% to 31.5% for Shawn Terry and 6.7% for Ed Sasan.

Williams tops all 3 Democrats COMBINED

Our polling also consistently showed this district had swung heavily Republican, something I first reported three years ago when I said I would be shocked if a Democrat ever won this district again once Sue Schmitz left.  In every poll we ran, many more people said they were voting in the Republican primary than the Democratic primary.  That bore out election day, as Phil Williams himself had 797 votes to only 719 FOR ALL DEMOCRATS COMBINED.  A total of 1,541 Republicans voted, so they now have well over a 2-to-1 advantage in the district.

This special election was the first of four special elections in just over a month. Next Tuesday Republican Greg Albritton faces Democrat Marc Keahey for the Senate seat in south Alabama, then the following Tuesday (June 9), Democrat Laura Hall and Republican Paul Sanford face off for the open Senate seat in Huntsville.  There is then a 2 week break before the Democratic runoff names either Priscilla Dunn or Merika Coleman as the next Senator from Birmingham (there is no Republican candidate in that race so the winner of the primary will become the Senator.

Two weeks after that (July 14), Askins and Williams have their general election to conclude a stretch in which 5 of 8 Tuesdays feature an election.  Askins is a very impressive candidate as well with a lot to offer, but with Williams receiving 80% more votes than Askins today, she obviously starts in a huge uphill fight for the general election.

John Pudner, Director
External Affairs
Alabama Farmers Federation