Posted by Let’s move through some items that I’ve wanted to note or blog about, some more noteworthy than others, and some probably more ripe than others.
- Joyce Vance has been nominated to replace U.S. Attorney Alice Martin.
- I wonder how a new U.S. Attorney will affect, if at all, the investigation of AG Troy King. And I still wonder what Alice Martin’s office had on the AG that Leura Canary’s office wouldn’t follow up on.
- A pretty good bill died that was meant to improve the way our overseas soldiers voted in Alabama elections. Roger Bedford introduced a late amendment, completely unrelated, that would keep campaign funds given for a federal race from being used in a state race. Regardless of what you think of the merits of Bedford’s amendment, it was the wrong vehicle for the argument, and it killed the bill. Additionally, the timing of Bedford’s amendment seemed quite self-serving since the only campaign the bill is known now to affect in 2010 is Congressman Artur Davis’s campaign for governor. Bedford was considering a run for Governor himself and would have faced Davis in the Democratic primary.
- We are hearing that Supreme Court Justice Patti Smith (R) is not running for re-election.
- And we hear that Stephen Black (D) is likely to pass on the state Treasurer’s race.
- Hoover Mayor Tony Petelos (R) passes on the Governor’s race.
- This commercial has been running on cable in Senate District 22 where Marc Keahy (D) and Greg Albritton (R) are facing each other in the special election for the seat formerly held by Pat Lindsey (D – Butler).
These things stack up… and I think I’m leaving some out.
Updated: I added to the post. I knew I was leaving something out.
Legislative Dispatch
Purple Dot Connection
2010 Big List
2010 Senate Elections
2010 House Elections
Press Releases
Ant word on the status of Michel Nicrosi? I heard that she was taken down a notch by Sessions in pre-confirmation hearings/meetings. Her family is very upset by the whole ordeal, but I just can’t figure out Session’s beef with Nicrosi. Is he simply angling to give Obama and Davis grief?
Black was not exactly enthusiastic back in April, and I suspected he would pass. His nonprofit is going well, and he has a good thing going at UA. Question is, who runs for Treasurer. My guess is Sparks drops out of Gov. and runs for Treasurer, assuming he is not first appointed to some Ag position in the Obama administration.
On the commerical — Did you notice that the clip of the man and woman at the kitchen table was the same clip used in the anti-gambling commercial promoted by Governor. It is of no consequence, only interesting.
Maybe Leaura Canary didn’t have ANYTHING on the AG, and that’s why she is not involved. If there is no predicate established by investigators, a responsible prosecutor does not go forward with a grand jury. That type practice is commonly referred to as a fishing expedition, something that Alice Martin, rightfully or wrongfully, has been critcized about for years.
The Flashpoint Questionnaire for the State House 6 GOP candidates is up. The special election was called to replace Sue Schmitz (D – awaiting sentencing), who was convicted of stealing money from children.
The 10 questions include issues like grocery tax, ethics, Free the Hops, and natural / cultural conservation. Note that the questions were reviewed by knowledgeable fairly un-partisan people to ensure that the questions weren’t overly biased and to ensure that a variety of topics were covered (BION sometimes GOP and Dems don’t care about the same issues).
Tommy Carter
http://www.flashpointblog.com/2009/05/18/hd-6-candidate-questionnaire-tommy-carter/
Frank Prabel
http://www.flashpointblog.com/2009/05/18/hd-6-candidate-questionnaire-frank-prabel/
Glenn Watson
http://www.flashpointblog.com/2009/05/18/hd-6-candidate-questionnaire-glenn-watson/
Phil Williams
http://www.flashpointblog.com/2009/05/18/hd-6-candidate-questionnaire-phil-williams/
Hoss Man do you spend all day every day defending Troy King? That must get very tiresome. And it will only get worse . . .
nicrosi thing is internal politics from her time in the mobile u.s.a. office. the sessions loyalists never really liked having an uber competent female always insisting things be done “by the book” and within the law.
I thought Alice Martin recused herself. I want to say that’s what WSFA reported last night.
jinks..where is your cat link??…lol..bout the only thing i enjoyed out of you… : )
I guess Bedford’s only hope was maneuvering so Davis couldn’t transfer his war chest.
When did Petelos say he was out?
Petelos said he was out in today’s Birmingham News. I believe the exact quote was “2010 is not the right year for me to run.”
Is Troy King out too?????
this is a good ad. wonder if it is working.
I see that great poll Davis crowd has been bragging about turns out to be – his own poll.
Apparently he only polled him vs. Byrne.
The poll confirms Byrne has low name ID.
But the poll claims most people across Alabama already know who Davis is.
That is nonsense. More likely most people across the state know someone named Davis.
Davis is just hoping to scare Cobb off.
He is very scared of her!
PS I am still waiting for a reply on a earlier challenge.
Can a Davis lover tell me on what issue Davis opposes Obama’s agenda?
Just one where is to the right of Obama.
Good luck.
Arthur “lefty” Davis – the man with two left hands.
Republican ad is another waste of 2010 money. Single issue attack on an issue that some republicans voted in favor of, and I am willing to bet money that Marc was not the only one in that race who voted for legislative perks. Remember that this issue has been voted on time and time again…maybe someone should check IF Greg voted on any of the previous attempts to pass legislative pay raises or hmmmm healthcare for legislators. The republicans have never learned to be careful what you throw at who. Hubbard makes this mistake more than most but as long as Riley is around he will be the party chairman. Yes I’m a republican, No I can’t stand our current party leadership because I think they are doomed to fail us.
What would you do differently? I hear that they aren’t doing a good job, but no solutions or ideas…only complaints!
Some observations on the Anzalone poll that#14 talks about, which is described in detail in Left in Alabama…I am not surprised that Davis has high name id with the sample in a poll. Polls this early are always a little skewed because anyone who would sit through a poll on a race next year is likely to be a highly informed voter. Davis also receives much more coverage than anybody else in this race.
The numbers here, a big Davis lead on Sparks or Cobb, do not surprise me either because it is exactly what AEA’s polls are rumored to show. By the way, anyone who thinks Davis is the only one polling this race is smoking something. They all are, and if Bedford and Cobb were getting different numbers, you can rest assured they’d be running and their data would be getting out.
I do not know what to make of the Davis lead on Byrne. If the poll gave the party ID of tne two candidates, i would suspect that a lot of people who got polled simply expressed their party preference. Given that Alabama is a more Republican state, I would expect to see a Republican have an edge on Davis, but general samples this early are just not reliable measures of anything but party sentiment. I would like to see if James runs about the same as Byrne. I would also wonder if a bitter Democratic primary wiould cost Davis some of the white Dem support the poll says he has against Byrne today.
On the US Atty’s piece, interesting rumor that Shelby is threatening to block any Democrat other than his buddy Larry Morris’ daughter for the Montgomery seat.
Not so fast, interesting comments. It seems that hubbard has done a good job when you look at the financials of the 2 parties.at least much better in that regard than his counterpart? Guess we’ll see if the gop can pick up at least one of these 2 dem seats.
Del,
Interesting on the Shelby and Larry Morriss connection. Not surprising, but I hadn’t thought of that. I had heard that the Repubs wanted to slow down any transition in the Middle District to allow certain grand jury investigations to proceed.
Prince Lib, Davis may be worried by a bitter primary with Cobb, for some of the reasons Del suggests, but he was not responsible for the AEA polling. That polling was done at the request of state legislators who are frighted of a 2010 backlash. Word is that 10 or so may be looking at walking the aisle if Davis looks to be the nominee. That would create an interesting dynamic. What effect would a April switch have on the Dems’ ability to field candidates to run against the new Repubs? Chances are those new Repubs will have already taken Dem money.
The thing is the Davis poll claims he has such high ID even in the general election.
That’s a no way deal. He is not well know in Huntsville etc..
He is supposed to far better know than Sparks, Cobb or Byrne.
Not buying it.
Again you keep pointing to rumour about a AEA and have been doing that for months.
Certainly, when you first mentioned the AEA poll showing this or that for Davis it was not true because the poll has still not come out.
They are not going to sit on a poll for months and then release it.
And if the polling showed such great stuff for Davis then why is Hubbert supposed to trying to get Cobb to run.
It sure ain’t because Davis won’t do Hubbert’s bidding.
Hubbert needs a winner. Fact is Davis probably would be a more favorable governor for Hubbert than Cobb ever would be.
But Hubbert knows you got to win.
The poll is right here.
Anzalone-Liszt Research (D), 5/5 – 9
600 registered voters, +/- 4%
Davis: 43%
Byrne: 38%
http://www.arturdavis2010.com/release_details.asp?id=65
…which shows a statistical dead-heat (+/-5) in a race between a sitting congressman and an undeclared candidate who has never held statewide office. Not sure why Artur’s camp is so excited about these numbers.
PrinceLib, your logic is baffling. “AEA poll showing this or that for Davis … was not true because the poll has still not come out.” Surely, you don’t believe that for a poll to be true, someone must first make it public. As I have said elsewhere, the AEA polling is out there and has been out there. It has not been released because it is private polling done to address concerns in the Statehouse about a Davis candidacy. Apparently, it has served its purpose, because there has been substantially less clammoring for a Cobb candidacy, or any other anti-Davis candidacy, in the past month or so.
And, just to be clear, AEA does not use Anzolone; they have internal pollsters. Private candidates, like Davis, retain pollsters like Anzolone. So, the AEA poll is a different poll that the Anzolone poll that you are referencing here, even if they mirror the same results.
AEA regularly releases it polling.
No I do not take faith in a rumour about a poll that is not released.
odd that they think byrne is the “front runner” for the GOP. They totally discount James.
Tim is a sharp individual, but that’s not enough. His message is good, his money is plentiful, and his charisma is sufficient, and that still is not good enough. Tim’s problem is that he has not achieved the status of a “credible” candidate for the state’s highest office. I only know of two people who could provide that critical spark – one of them is dead and the other one is not available. Absent the spark, look for Tim to barely make the run-off with Bradley and lose to Bradley in the run-off by 5-10 points.
actually i agree in large part with post 28…
Not to beat a dead horse on the Davis polling issue, but #26, AEA does not regularly release its polling. Several AEA employees have told me that Dr. Hubbert has ordered Dr. Johnson not to publicly release any numbers on the governor’s race. What that means, i don’t know, but there are AEA polls and the best I can say is what I have heard from people who are both pro and anti-Davis.
As I said in my earlier posting, I agree that the general numbers don’t mean much, except for one thing. Anyone in or around Alabama politics has heard some version of “Davis has no chance in the general”. If there are polls that contradict this, those polls are as relevant as unsupported guessing about a candidate’s chances.
Last but not least, I wonder if the Davis camp is trying to elevate Byrne because they see him as a weaker candidate. In a Davis Byrne matchup, the Republicans cannot paint Davis as a fancy pants elitist who does not have the common touch. Tim James would have much more of the common touch and would exploit Davis’ aloofness. Also, a Republican moderate would not fire up the GOP’s rural base to turn out.
15: gay rights, guns, prayer in schools, estate tax. Also state issues are different than federal ones.
The Davis camp probably does not even have Tim James on their radar.
Byrne probably was chosen because they knew he had low ID at this stage but was being talked up big.
It very much remains to been seen how strong Byrne will be.
And James is certainly no co-frontrunner.
I would bet the religious right will NOT go for him.
Prince – Assuming Byrne makes the runoff, and at this point that appears to be a safe assumption – who do you think the other runoff candidate will be? I think it will be James.
post 30 makes an interesting point. the davis camp may want to talk up byrne as they prefer him….
princeliberty – are you saying the religious right will not support james? of course they will….unless roy moore gets in the race and splits off some of that vote.