Posted by SurveyUSA’s latest poll of Sen. Richard Shelby’s approval rating among Alabamians shows a third straight month of decline down to 51%, his lowest rating in the four years shown online. Not sure that there is a lot to be made about that as his seat is quite safe and 51% is certainly respectable.
Just in January though he was at 60% and only two months before that he was at 64%, his highest rating in the four years shown on the chart. For that matter, his current 51% approval rating is close (within the margin of error) to the 48% of Alabamians who approve of the job Barack Obama is doing in a poll taken at the same time.
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Interesting. I expect no one will have the cajones to take him on, but he could be beaten. I know he has the largest warchest ever, but I think the right kind of intelligent opponent with high name ID and a good dose of populism could turn all that special interest money into a liability. Shelby’s never really been taken to task for the way he switched parties because the last two times, he’s had such a huge warchest no one legit challenged him. There are probably only three or four Dems in Alabama with the name ID and the credibility to give Shelby a race. It’s a shame that they’re all running for something else.
That said, it would be extremely difficult. The truth, however, is that if an incumbent GOPer in Pennsylvania or Ohio or Colorado was sitting on 51/41 approve/disapprove, the DSCC would be working their butt off to get a good candidate in the race.
Bob Riley is running against someone. It would not suprise me at all to see him run against Shelby. When he says ” I am going home to Clay County” he doeth protest too much. This guy is working 24/7 and it is not to go home to Clay County.
SamfordDem I suspect we conservatives feel about Shelby the way you do about Bobby Bright or Parker Griffith. None of the three represent the true ideals of their respective parties, but given a choice between one of them and a candidate of the other political party, we will rally around the one who has the letter next to the name we most closely align ourselves with.
This poll reflects seasonal mistrust with all of Washington.
Regardless of today’s polls, remember that Senator Shelby received 68% of the vote in 2004 and Senator Sessions received 63% in 2008.
Shelby is unbeatable in the 2010 election and could be the lynchpin that saves the GOP local candidates in Jefferson County.
I really doubt this poll is on the mark.
But any decline would be increasing dislike for all Washington and the bad Alabama economy which is now doing worse than the national economy.
But as for someone can beat Shelby with populism?
Shelby’s a conservative populist. He is one only a handful of senators who do not bow before the elite.
So can Shelby be defeated? NO! Unless he moves to another state and runs there.
“Just a thought” doesn’t know what he/she is talking about.
Democrats need to get their qualifing checks ready. The more the merrier.
Then well have the real poll.
Princeliberty, Shelby does not bow before the elite because he is one of them. He is one of the richest members of the US Senate and has a bigger warchest than anyone else. And all those donations did not come from hard working Alabamians.
John, I think most of the support for Shelby and Sessions is pretty soft considering neither has really had a tough campaign since they initially got elected. In addition to that, I don’t think Senators really have coattails. Some have political machines that can turn out votes for candidates of their choosing, but unlike Governors or Presidents, I think people very much divorce their choice of federal legislator from their choice for state officeholders.
Samford Dem: “the right kind of intelligent opponent with high name ID and a good dose of populism”
Who on earth are you talking about?
That poll probably just reflects that Shelby has been hanging around too long. I agree with comment 4 that as a conservative Republican Shelby has never excited me too much, but he’s better than the Democratic alternative.
Sanford Dem,
I do agree that Senators don’t usually carry coattails. However, I am thinking from a vantage point of Jefferson County.
In 2008, the local Democrats swept the GOP candidates for the first time in almost twenty years.
However, I see some candidates, who should be on the ballot in 2010, who will garner enough traditional Democratic vote to prevent the mammoth straight Democrat vote in Jefferson that we had in 2008.
Tops on that list is Senator Richard Shelby. In 2004, Shelby received 58% of the vote in Jefferson County.
Hope this clarifies the meaning behind my statement.
Shelby opposed the TARPS bailouts, NAFTA, GATT etc..
not only has he stood for small government but has opposed the elite on issues were the leadership of the parties joined together to thumb their noses at the people time and time again.
Its all in how you raise the money, he has gotten it from folks backing him for taking the stances he was already taking.
He hasn’t been saying one things to the people of Alabama doing another in Washington.
For you critics name one time Shelby would two face with the people?
And what on earth are you talking about Shelby not being a good conservative?
Joe Turnham should run!
Princeliberty, I think changing parties the day after your election is a good example of a “two face with the people.”
John, I see your point. And if Shelby was actually going to face a legitimate opponent, I think your JeffCo theory might have some credence. Unfortunately despite my belief that the right Democrat could beat him, I don’t think any of the “right Democrats” are going to run. In the end those JeffCo voters will just split their tickets especially if Davis is at the top of ticket.
Who paid for the poll?
Sanford Dem, that is precisely my point.
Folks who voted straight Democrat in 2008, might split their tickets to vote for Shelby, Justice Mike Bolin (of JeffCo–has some Democratic support), Sheriff Mike Hale, and Judge Eric Fancher (top vote getter).
Those splitting their ticket, instead of voting straight Democrat, might select other local Republicans or even leave some races blank. This could make a difference for local Republican candidates in a close race.
Well at least you tried. But Shelby was voting the same way all along.
And he did not switch parties the day after he won re-election – 1992, he changed two years later after the
1994 election.
He opposed Clinton agenda the entire as he SAID he would.
princeliberty, if Shelby was so opposed to the Clinton agenda, why didn’t he change parties as soon as Clinton took office? He waited until the Republicans took control of the Senate and changed his affiliation so he could be part of the majority party. That’s pretty two-faced as far as I’m concerned, but YMMV.
Dexter,
WKRG-TV Mobile-Pensacola
Bobby Bright should run against him!
John, I’m not so sure about that. If Shelby’s not facing a legitimate opponent (or possibly no opponent at all) and that’s the only GOPer they want to support, they may just go ahead and vote straight Dem.
we are not talking floods of voters, but just enough to trim the edges off the huge Democratic bloc vote. In 2008, Judge Davis Lawley had almost 48%. I am thinking that in a normal year, he would have won.
I am hopeful that some quality local officials, who run as Republicans, can hold on in the 2010 elections.
Regardless of ideology, you need quality judges like Gary Pate, Eddie Vines, Eric Fancher, Alfred Bahakel, Sonny Ferguson. I hope they can hold on. I would hate to see them lose, simply because they run as Republicans.
Thanks Danny.
i am no fan of shelby’s. i would love to see riley run against him. but i doubt anyone will – his warchest scares everyone off. that is what is wrong with shelby – he works in large part only to build his re election, his warchest, and only works hard for those that contribute to him under pressure. yes, that can be said of many folks in DC but shelby is a master at it. also, i think he really only gies a damn about north alabama (bham, tusc, huntsville)
But he will be hard to beat – GOPers vote for him because they rather have him than a Dem and many dems vote for him…like trial lawyers… I think Riley is the only person that could give him a challenge. Other than that – Shelby has a lock in 2010.
How can you say he only works to help out those who contribute to him?
Shelby was the Senate leader in fighting TARP – that had nothing to with contributors – in fact the opposite he was defying major contributors.
liberty – u are way, way behind if you think shelby is not the king of asking for contributions in exchange for favors. it is a well known fact.
but hell, i still vote for him. no good options other than him in his last couple of races he had.
The same people who think Shelby is vulnerable are the same ones who thought Sessions vulnerable in ‘08. Alabama voters want conservative senators and there is not a Democrat in the state who could raise the warchest to compete with Shelby. I still don’t rule out a last minute retirement, but Shelby is untouchable.
I would love to see that commie hater Bachus’s numbers. That dude needs a primary challenge or a conservative Democrat to usher him out of DC after that $750,000,000,000 “yes” on the ridiculous bank bailout.
I guess when all of your campaigns are paid for by Wall Street firms what else should we expect from Bachass.
caboose – if you want to usher out bachus then you better hope for a GOP primary race for him. NO WAY a dem could win that district. period.