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Like a kaleidoscope offering a completely new picture after just a couple of twists, the 2010 gubernatorial race on the Democratic side looks much different than it did just a couple of days ago. Lt. Governor Jim Folsom has now decided to pass on the race and instead run for re-election. Agricultural Commissioner Ron Sparks is announcing today his candidacy for the Governor’s race which was unexpected just a couple of days ago. State senator Roger Bedford is now seriously considering jumping into the race.
Congressman Artur Davis was the first announced Democratic candidate for governor. What is the take on the recent turn of events from his campaign, I wondered.
A source close to the Davis campaign believes that Roger Bedford is the choice of Montgomery insiders concerned about losing control of the Democratic party. “Folsom was their best bet, and to his credit he didn’t allow himself to be used as a ‘stop Davis’ candidate.”
“First they turned to Sparks,” but “we’re hearing that Sparks can’t raise the money plus there are other concerns like his connections to Alfa.” So, they’ve settled on Bedford, “a talented, good campaigner, but one of the most flawed, damaged records in Alabama politics right now.”
“We do not underestimate his skills as a candidate,” but they turned to a “very damaged, very flawed candidate who has substantial corruption issues, and who is the personification of inside Alabama politcs. He is not as well-known across the state as he thinks, and it has been 13 years since he ran a race. It is a very different Democratic Party, a very different state.”
“It’s interesting that electability is their concern [about Davis' candidacy], and they are turning to a Bedford who is not electable, who will be the poster child for everything that Byrne wants to say about the Democratic Party.”
Does the Davis campaign believes that Bradley Byrne is the most likely GOP nominee, I ask.
“We believe that Byrne is very likely to be the candidate. He is going to be well-funded, and he has the backing of the Riley machinery almost by default. Given that and the weakness of Republican field, we believe he is the most likely nominee right now. He is going to have troubles with religious right voters; that is his Achilles heel, but he can overcome that. And his reform message is going to be pitch perfect against Bedford.”
Why are party insiders looking for a ‘stop Davis’ candidate, I asked.
“It’s about old fashioned party patronage. They’re saying, ‘We couldn’t even play ball with Davis on U.S. Attorney appointments. Can you imagine him on appointing civil court judges and other appointments?’ Some of them think that a black can’t win, but for many it’s about patronage issues. So lobbyists and Democratic political insiders decided to mount the effort to find somebody who’s not Davis. To Jim’s credit, he would not allow himself to be used that way. They were not satisfied with Sparks so they are casting a pretty desperate net. They are looking to Bedford who is absolutely unelectable.”
Related Articles:
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Sparks officially in – Website updated
http://www.progressiveelectorate.com/diary/996/its-official-ron-sparks-in-the-govs-race
Dems keep forgetting that Tim James has $50 million and he is very attractive and great in public appearances. They just keep writing him off due to a late-starting campaign 8 years ago. Mistake.
And before someone says “he only got 9% in 2002″ think about this: could Kay Ivey have gotten 9% for gov in 2002? Or Bradley Byrne for gov in 2002? The answer to those questions is a certain “no.”
James will be a player along with Byrne. That is THE GOP race in 2010.
#2, you make a good point. i think it is more than just “THE GOP” race in 2010, i think the byrne/james match-up is “THE GOVERNORS” race in 2010. predict winner will be next governor for sure.
The Davis campaign is allowing their inexperience to show. This is the same crew who put out a press release on April 2 saying that Sparks was running for Lt. Gov.
It’s laughable to hear the Davis folks talk about “damaged goods.” Do they know what this really means in light of Davis signing off on recommending a nominee to the White House for state director for USDA Rural Development who, as the Mobile Press-Register pointed out last Sunday, either has lied on his resume’ or has serious Ethics Commission concerns?
As the winner of two statewide races, Sparks has shown far more capacity to pull votes than Davis. No doubt Davis is a very bright guy, but appears that he is having trouble adjusting to a very different ball game.
Tim James may be willing to spend his money (and others) but he is not a good speaker, doesn’t work a room well, and does not come across as someone who knows how the state runs. I saw him last month in a VERY favorable crowd and he left the crowd less than enthusiastic. I was thoroughly unimpressed.
Last November in Cullman County the democrats lost every race on the ballot with Obama at the top of the ticket. The Cullman GOP had never won every race that was on a ballot in a statewide election. So people like Zeb,Grantland and Fields have good reason to worry about Artur being at the top of the ballot next year. Theres also the Mitchem seat next door that you could almost certainly kiss goodbye if Artur’s the nominee and IF the GOP gets a half decent candidate this time. Oh and don’t forget Obama will play a role in these races as well. So that will be another strike against Zeb and that crowd IF the GOP recruits well.
James is having the perfect storm so far…he may be our next Gov.
I loved the kaleidoscope opening of your article. This is why I check this site first thing every day.
Your analysis was some of the best political insight that I have ever read.
This site is a must read for those who have politics in the blood!
Sounds like the Davis campaign will center on reform instead of the usual hearty smile, vague promises, sharp attacks and vote for me because I’m not the other guy.
Byrne vs Jams should make for an entertaining primary as well as the three way Bedford vs Davis vs Sparks. Expect national reporters to use subtitles on stump speech coverage as the accents will be very thick.
Artur Davis ownes the budget, stimulus, and all other over the top spending in DC. This in the long run will hurt his chances.
#5 you are either 1) out of your mind or 2) an operative for a candidate other than James.
James is incredible in person – better by far than any other candidate in this election. He’s Reagan for Alabama in his mid-40s. He is athletic, telegenic, articulate and speaks in quote-ready soundbites. You can criticize a lot about James, but his personal charisma – which dwarfs Bradley Bryne’s and is reminiscent (yes) of a young Ronald Reagan – is unquestionable.
Are you smoking something #5?
LA- Davis’ camp did not say in their release that Sparks was running for Lt. Gov. The H’Times made an error in their story. See the full release here: http://www.leftinalabama.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=D48C41434178B72FDCA25CF9CCCC2BDE?diaryId=3692
#11 – “Athletic”? Will there be a “Feats of Strength” component to the election, right after the “Airing of the Grievances”?
If Bedford gets in, they better come with more than dredging up ancient “dirt”. Just ask Luther Strange how well that tactic works.
Artur will ruin all chances for Cullman County Dems. His criticism of Sparks dividing the party holds no water. He has divided the party since he pompously was telling everyone he is going to governor in 2010 and make a run for president in 2016.
All James has is his dads name and that is not really a good thing he ran before and never poled above single digits, don’t expect much more out of him this time.
On the other hand Roger Bedford is a 5 year old boy standing between two heavyweight boxers… he just needs to get out of the way.
For the party, I think that Sparks made a mistake running against Davis though. I think he is there best chance, Sparks should have spread the power hitters out and ran for Shelby’s Senate seat.
No: I am not out of my mind. I am not an operative (or supporter for that matter) of another campaign. I don’t think that Tim James is very intelligent and I think that fact shows when he makes a speech. I think that he is a bit arrogant, tries to play the “good old boy” angle when he is in fact a millionaire, and knows less about Montgomery politics than the average person that comments on this blog.
Although we will probably have to agree to disagree on his charisma (or lack thereof), the fact is that he couldn’t even get a room full of 50 hard-core Republicans to get excited about him or his campaign.
Luther didn’t even bring up the “ancient dirt”. That is why he lost.
He’s got a lot more than 50 excited #17. A lot more.
I am talking about a specific meeting. You waste your time and money if you want to. Tim James is not a strong candidate.
#16 I will restate a point made above: if Bradley Byrne had run for governor against Bob Riley, incumbent Lt. Gov. Steve Windom and Tim James in 2002, where would he have finished? We all know he would have have finished 4th behind James.
So why is he – Byrne- more competitive now?
James showing 8 years ago is immaterial, as Byrne’s name ID and position in 2002 is immaterial. This will be a high-profile, competitive race.
All of ya’ll are forgetting that figure lurking behind the Republican barn. ROY MOORE
Bound to have some influence on the race, most likely at James expense.
#6, you’re right.
That’s what would happen. If the Republicans get to go up against Artur, look for a sweep.
The 60 percent of white Alabamians in rural areas would never want a negro (I could say worse) in the Governor’s Mansion. They hate having a half-black in the white house. Welcome back to 1963! The only way they can keep Artur away, in their minds, is with the same terrible tools the Birmingham Public Safety Commish used. Terrible, yes. But they have a right to vote for or against him for any reason they choose. If you want to start restricting the reasons people have to vote up or down, then get me out of this state. That’s the worse possible censorship and a violation of the civil rights of all.
Who is involved with Sparks’ campaign? Who’s his team?
Given our current economic and political climate, I don’t think this is the year that “Montgomery insiders” will win the governor’s seat, regardless of who they pick, although I agree that Bedford is a pretty poor candidate regardless. Yes, he has pretty good name recognition, but it is for all the negative things he has done.
Sparks is a populist, which is precisely what makes him such a strong candidate. That and the fact that he has the plain-spoken down to earth personality and populism of leaders like Jim Folsom, Bill Clinton, or Mike Huckabee.
He is a working-class guy from Fort Payne and relates to the farmers and rural communities of the blue collar workers in Alabama, as traditional Democrats did, until they lost this group to the religious fundamentalist and racists. He has the populist appeal of a George Wallace without the racism or bigotry. And he is honest. He welcomes voters to review his record and his history. He is not slick. He is not polished. He is a regular Alabamian who has done his best to improve life for Alabama farmers and now wants to do the same for the rest of us.
With the amount of corruption in Washington DC hitting new highs, Sparks stands in contrast to Artur Davis, even if Davis doesn’t personally have much dirt on him. He is, and is perceived as, a Washington insider, and has always drawn a large portion of his support from special interest groups, the business community, and PACs.
Also, Sparks is a true candidate of change, and his change includes ideas we can ALL get behind. He has been instrumental in selling Alabama lumber, chickens, and other agricultural products to the Cuban people, preserving jobs for Alabamians and improving the lives of Cubans living under a strongarm leader. He has made our Agricultural Dept #1 across the nation, a position Alabama is not used to holding in any category. I’m a little concerned about his mentioned “ties to Alfa” but at this point Sparks appears to be the best candidate for governor.
Call them “lobbyists” or “party leaders” or “party elites,” what these Democratic leaders know is that Davis cannot win in usually Democratic counties like Lauderdale, Colbert and Etowah, where Obama lost badly. A Democrat who loses those counties is like a Republican who can’t win in Shelby or Baldwin: hopeless.
Bedford has not one, but two, statewide losses. AG in 1990 primary, and US Senate in 1996. But both of those are long ago. The biggest question for Bedford now is, what happens when these same Democratic leaders begin to think about November electability? They may not love Sparks, but they’ll love Byrne, Strange, James or Moore even less. And the Democrats don’t need another 8 years of a GOP governor appointing sheriffs, county commissioners, and probate judges. Unlike Bedford, Sparks can take ALFA’s money and organization away from the GOP, and can deliver a lot of Sand Mountain votes that used to be Democratic, but have become part of the Republican base.
A little intel from Sparks’ announcements…very small crowd in Montgomery, heavily dominated by AG employees, considerably less than he expected and much less than the hundred or so Davis drew…
Normal sized crowd at the Democrats meeting he spoke to in Birmingham, much less than Folsom drew speaking to the same club the day Davis announced, much less than Davis drew when he announced…
Huntsville event..less than 20 people, Davis drew over a hundred, according to news accounts, when he went to Huntsville the day after his announcement..
I was not sold that Davis was the better candidate than Folsom, but Sparks v. Davis?, Sparks is making the mistake of his career, he should have run agn either Rogers or Aderholt. Sparks’ day gave the sign of being haphazardly organized and poorly planned.
As we all expected, the 2010 race is going to be very interesting. I do agree with Artur Davis that this is the first election in an extremely long time that Alabamians can take a fundamental look at the direction of the state (one reason is that this is the first election since 1986 without an incumbent running, and is the first since the Wallace-Brewer contest 1970 that can have a major impact on the direction of the state). With that framework in mind, I think the Montgomery insider tag is going to have a negative impact, as will major ethical issues–Bedford is damaged goods. He might be attractive, especially to insiders, but he will bring up issues of corruption–the last couple of times this came up in elections regarding Democratic candidates (in ‘02 it was no-bid contracts, in ‘94 it was the trip on Milton McGregor’s plane), the Democrat lost.
Both Sparks and Davis have the potential to realign and reshape the state Democratic party and are very interesting in that regards. Sparks can bring ALFA to the table as a Democratic candidate. Davis can also reshape the party with his ideas to move Alabama forward and to cast a new direction (and I believe that as more learn about him, more will move past the issue of race).
The Republicans will also be interesting to watch. At this moment, Byrne probably has the inside track, primarily due to the goldmine that reforming and cleaning up the two year college system is. Though he has been in Montgomery, his role in addressing this removes a “Montgomery insider” tag. Byrne vs. James is interesting, though I think Byrne has more positive press at this moment. (It is also unfortunate he does not have a position on his website on Constitutional Reform).
All in all, the next 18 months will be fun to watch.
Mike, the Matrix is running Sparks’ operation, although I’m not sure who over there is heading up the effort.
Doozey, you need to venture into the 21st century. Your predictions (and patent endorsment) of bigotry and racism in the 2010 race are disheartening. Not to mention disingenuous. I have no idea where you get the authority to speak on behalf of 60% of Alabama’s rural citizenry, but you are misinformed.
The rural distaste for Obama was, in part, a reaction to the GOP’s charicature of a black, muslim, socialist, infiltrator sent by our enimies to covertly destroy this country from the inside out. Alternatively (and more likely), the rural rejection of Obama it was a reaction to his policies, which still do not sit well with conservative Alabamians, although many of his more populist proposals are gaining traction in rural Alabama.
And, while I’ve seen no numbers to indicate that anti-Obama sentiments have fallen, the general feedback I’ve received in rural Alabama suggests that, even though some rural Alabamians may disagree with him on some policy, they hold no ill-will towards him. They certainly do not “hate having a half-black in the white house.”
It seems, you my friend, are the only one stuck in the 1960’s, and it is a shame that you had to drag the rest of us down that tired and shameful path.
To #28, I saw a national blog posting that referenced a Survey USA poll that says Obama is now at 47 approval overall in Alabama, 35% with whites. Way behind his national numbers but way ahead of where he was in November. I would bet if these numbers are about right, Obama would do better in some of these North Alabama counties today. Didn’t Ralph Cook win these counties, by the way?
To #25, not to dismiss any counties, but the Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklins, and Cullmans could not add up to more than 2-3 percent of the state’s vote. These counties used to matter more but they simply don’t decide elections given the state’s growth patterns. I think the key to DAvis in a general is can he dominate Jefferson and Montgomery, as BO did, win Mobile and Madison,which Obama could not, although he pulled in the low to mid forties in both, and run well in counties with the Calhoun and Lee profile, a solid black vote plus a mix of working class and suburban whites.
Bedford lost the AG race in 1990 b/c he had cancer and battled it through most of the primary race. He looked really bad and people did not vote for him over Jimmy Evans. That is why he lost that race.
In the 1996 US Senate primary he beat Congressman Glenn Browder in the run-off which was no easy task. Also, he is a very good fundrasier and campaigner.
#29, I think you are onto something in terms of the counties needed. No Democratic is going to be able to win the governor’s mansion without winning Mobile and Madison counties. A Democratic candidate already wins in Jefferson and Montgomery counties, but needs to also get the major cities and then run better than expected in counties that they might get trounced in. If you remember from the Obama campaign this past year (especially in the primaries), the campaign worked to compete in areas of states where they might not be popular to minimize losses. This is true for Alabama as well.
Speaking of the Democratic race, how might the results of the presidential primary provide a starting point for looking at the 2010 race.
Speaking of Bedford, in the ‘96 general race he lost to Sessions 50.5% to 45%.
“Lauderdale, Colbert, Franklins, and Cullmans could not add up to more than 2-3 percent of the state’s vote. These counties used to matter…”
Three lost Democrat Senate seats, this is what worries the Montgomery Insiders. Win the Gov., but lose the Senate and Davis would have no more chance than Riley to pass legislation.
#15… you say…
“He has divided the party since he pompously was telling everyone he is going to governor in 2010 and make a run for president in 2016.”
LINK? Backup? I haven’t heard that about “president in 2016.” Who did he tell and when? cuz if it’s true, it’s pretty interesting. If there’s no backup, it’s just nasty gossip and I think we’ve had enough of that.
JD is onto something here. The Montgomery “insiders” ie lobbyists care MUCH more about who runs the Senate than who is Governor.
The problem with #33…Obama got creamed in these areas and Parker Griffith still won them, just as Obama got slammed in the Wiregrass, but Bright won. The truth is that Alabama voters have gotten very savvy about splitting their votes. The anti-Davis Dems, which based on the attendance at Sparks’ event in Montgomery includes the entire staff of the party, must have studied the results enough to know this. Leads at least one inquiring mind to think that the Davis insider in Danny’s posting may be right, their animosity may be less about worries he costs them legislative seats and more about what his win might mean to the SDEC and every other patronage post.
Right now, everyone in the field looks like a loser.
@27: Photos show a good crowd in Ft. Payne.
http://times-journal.com/story.lasso?ewcd=33fb91ff0e8e8611
We are doing an online poll on the Dem nomination
http://www.progressiveelectorate.com/diary/999/just-one-more-algov-dem-primary-2010-diary-a-poll
Racism is what worries the Democratic leadership. Its not about losing anything. Its about the fact that the Democratic leadership in Alabama is a bunch of racist white guys who can’t stand the idea of a black man leading their party and the state.
Power trumps race. Just ask Joe Reed.
The truth is the Democratic leadership doesn’t like Davis since he won’t play by their rules. Think about the new US Attorneys. Davis came up with his own merit based nominees, incurring the wrath of the Democratic leadership. Davis is viewed as arrogant and not a team player. Normally, I would say it is about race, not this time. What a mess.
To #39, online polls are worthless, online polls on blogs are worth even less, polls of 40 some people, margin of error of about 15 points.
To #42, you aced it. Davis is resented by a lot of Democrats in Montgomery because they think that he had the power to shut down the junior college investigation, and some black Langford cronies are just as angry because they think he could have stopped the Langford indictment. I, for one, seriously doubt that Davis has anywhere near that kind of power, or that Eric Holder is anywhere near that corrupt. Another little sidenote: a very connected source in the Gump says that certain Dems had a US attorney candidate who had committed to make life very difficult for Bob Riley. Davis would not back that candidate.
Does Sparks, a good guy, really want to be in cahoots with that crowd?
http://www.myfoxal.com/dpp/news/20090404_State_Senator_Arrested_on_DUI_Suspicion
zeb little arrested for dui
[...] And while I am not sure to what degree that might be true, Waldrep’s support of Davis is clear evidence that it’s not completely true. I had already heard from more than one source that with Folsom out of the race, some of his support (including monetary) would move to Davis. [...]