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Democratic Lt. Governor Jim Folsom has met with Senate leadership today to tell them that he is running for re-election in 2010.
Many expected him to run for Governor, an office he assumed in 1993 until 1995 after Governor Guy Hunt (R) was removed from office for violating Alabama’s state ethics laws.
Democratic Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks has said he will announce his 2010 plans on Friday in press conferences in Montgomery, Birmingham, Huntsville and Ft. Payne. Though Sparks has not officially revealed his decision, prior to Folsom’s announcement those close to Sparks have said he plans to run for Lt. Governor. However, by all indications, he has sought to avoid a primary battle with Folsom.
Folsom may have made this unexpected announcement to beat Sparks to the punch. Will Sparks give Folsom a primary battle for the Lt. Governor’s spot? Sparks has a strong base, but it’s hard to imagine that any Democrat could take the nomination from the incumbent Folsom. Will Sparks decide to run for Governor after all and challenge an aggressive Artur Davis for the nomination? Is a run for Congress in his future? Or…?
Eyes on Sparks.
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I bet the announcement gets “rained out” again.
wow. just, wow.
this better not be an april fools day joke
I thought the same thing, bhamattorney, but it looks solid.
So the 24 hour race begins for Sparks to make a decision. He’s locked into making a decision by Friday.
Was this orchestrated is the question?
The perfect Tim James Storm keeps getting better and better. Kay Ivey campaign DOA, Hawkins out, Folsom out . . .James has millions of bucks and only Bradley Byrne to beat.
Folsom-Wallace PACT plan claims its first victim.
Will Kaye or Bradley be number two?
Sparks against Artur in the primary would be a joke.
If Folsom doesn’t think he can beat Artur then how could a poor man’s Folsom like Sparks do it?
Sparks should run for Sec of State or Treasurer or even Auditor.
This is no surprise, and I tend to agree with Blue Dog on where Sparks should focus his attention, but those offices are not a step up for him. He thinks the rural vote will carry him in a primary. What he needs to remember is that rural voters do not overwhelmingly come out in a Dem primary. If Davis can turn out the metro vote in the primary, which he will in Bham, Montg, and Mobile, Sparks could get crushed.
no way in hell sparks will run for lt gov now. sparks will run for gov or i would not be surprised to see him run for treasurer if he is too chicken to run against artur.
Remember in ‘06 when Folsom beat Strange and EVERYONE knew that Folsom was a shoe-in for Gov in ‘10. And Hillary was sure to be the next president. Politics is unpredictable.
I was kind of hoping for Folsom as a nice foil for Byrne to hit the corruption angle. Oh well.
Yeah, Sparks is kinda screwed now. Maybe he’ll run for Treasurer or something. If he somehow does decide to run for Governor, the powers that be won’t let him beat up Artur the way he’d have to in order to have a chance. Not that he has a chance.
To me, this just proves that Folsom is as lazy as he’s rumored to be. And that he really doesn’t want to be governor. At least Artur wants it.
Now the question turns back to the GOP. Assuming it’s Byrne and James, and assuming that Byrne is the favorite, will James go all scorched earth and damage Byrne bad enough to make a difference in the general?
Sparks is not running for Treasurer. Black is telling everyone he is running for Treasurer. Secretary of State is where it should be for Sparks.
That way we have the best state ticket ever
Davis Gov
Folsom – Lt. Gov
Sparks – Sec of State
Black – Treasurer
and there are still some choices for AG
To answer the question posed in the report, it doesn’t seem that Sparks is considering a congressional run if he’s holding press conferences around the state. So we’re all presuming a run for a statewide office…
SO my two questions:
Is it overkill to do four press conferences on the first day of a statewide campaign?
and does a democratic primary with no match-ups (like the scenario in #14) help or hurt the democratic candidates? I could see it benefiting party unity, but wouldn’t it keep the candidates from being battle-tested before the general?
Sparks is in the Gubernatorial race according one report from Dekalb Times Journal
http://www.progressiveelectorate.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=989
Jinks, I kind of question your theory on “the powers that be” not letting sparks beat up on artur, simply because I think that would depend on who those powers are. For instance, joe turnham is on the record stating that davis would hurt the dems down ballot (still wonder why this was a wise “public” comment), and then that whole rift with the “obama committee” thing. So seems the turnham crowd would want sparks over davis, leaving who to block sparks from beating up on artur in your opinion?
Sparks should run for AL 4.
Could Turnham could ever stop the President’s pick? He couldn’t stop Artur from forming another Nomination Board. And Artur will have BCA behind him, like other things in his life – from what whispers one hears in Tuscaloosa when he comes to his district office. Arutr is like the Democrat Troy Queen – in more ways than one. He’s not the favorite of the most prominent Party leader – Hubbert a la Riley.
At #6 above I forgot about the Troy King meltdown. The GOP gubernatorial contenders are dropping like flies leaving only former Democrat activist Bradley Byrne and Tim James.
It look better for James all the time. Wasn’t Byrne a Clinton Democratic convention delegate? Yes he was.
@ 19, Will bca back davis over a gop candidate in 2010 for gov?
Exactly, Dylan, you’re the winner!!! Artur is setting himself up for a permanent position with BCA, he sabotogaes the election, loses both Houses of the Legislature for the Democrats, and allows the Republicans to sweep a lot of down-ballot races because of the inability of locals to outperform Davis by 15 points, then yeah…BCA will tacitly back him in anything he wants to do.
Viability, you James boys better go back to the drawing board if your strongest argument against Byrne is he used to be a Dem.
BCA might help Artur in a primary but at that point the help stops. Talk about pulling the rug out from under someone.
No way does the BCA help Artur unless he’s running away with the GENERAL election.
And, I would expect Sparks to run a Jay Loves Style all negative campaign in the primary, after all, he has The Matrix working for him. That’s their specialty.
Artur may try to go negative, but honestly, I think he’s just too sweet. It would be like the girl scouts coming to sell you some cookies, you saying no and the scouts scolding you for being cheap…davis is simply not tough enough to effectively go negative, I mean is he simply going to hammer on sparks’ mustache being too perfect and stuck up? This race will be fun by the way
Anyone who thinks that this is anything but good news for Davis is missing something. A rural candidate who has no base in the I-65 corridor and no potential of pulling black votes from Davis is not likely to threaten Davis in a primary. Davis will also be significantly better funded, an advantage he would not have enjoyed agn Folsom.
Sparks will likely run a negative race but I would not underestimate Davis’ aggressiveness as a campaigner, either. It will be interesting to see if Sparks’ ALFA connections become a big issue in this race; hard for Sparks to run as a progressive hero given ALFA’s stance on tax and constitutional reform.
27, No one here is saying that this isn’t good news for davis. Certainly better news than if folsom was running for gov. And honestly, these two can have a jello wrestling match for all I care, because it pretty much ensures a republican gov in 2010. Hands down the best scenario.
The $64,000 question: does Sparks damage Davis more on Sparks’ way to a 60-40 loss than James damages Byrne on Tim’s way to a 60-40 loss? Davis v. Byrne may be very close, the question is who picks up more negatives in their primary.
One thing to consider: if black voters really get behind Davis, and trust me, once a few things about Sparks’ record come out, they will, Turnham and co. may get very antsy about siding with Sparks. Several Dem insiders were overheard saying that Folsom’s presence on the ticket gives them a better feeling about the downballot effect Davis may or may not have.
I don’t see a james 60-40 loss to either dem candidate,29, but for the sake of being fair, folsom is certainly a strong anchor on the ballot, so maybe the thinking is concede gov, hope that folks jump back across the ballot for lt gov and that carries down ballot. Doubt it, but plausible
Gotta love Alabama politics. Folsom was creating a log jam (as he has done in the past) but once the log jam cleared things start to happen in a hurry.
Matrix will run the same type campaign for Sparks as they do on all their candidates and it wont be pretty for Davis. With that said, I figure he still comes out of it as the nominiee. Too bad, Sparks is a good guy from what I know of him and would be a very attractive candidate in the general election.
As for the GOP, the only thing that James needs now is for Moore to decide to sit out the Gov race. If that happens I would say he is leading a charmed life.
As for the BCA, you can bet that they (some kinda way) will be supporting Davis in the Primary. I dont see anyway Davis can beat Byrne or James.
It’s gonna to be a fun election cycle.
SUB, first, insomnia is a pain in the butt. Second, I think your analysis is dead on, with the exception of sparks because I still question his strength/candidacy in a “true” leadership position.
at #23 I didn’t say Byrne “used” to be a Democrat. :-)
There are a lot of other arguments against Bradley. A lot of people are aware of them. He will fold up like a garden chair under pressure.
Folsom has faced two brusing losses in his life.
1. Loss to Denton in 1980 U.S. Senate race
2. Loss to Fob James in 1994 Governor’s race
He overcame both those later on to win. He has always wanted to represent Alabama in D.C.
I am not sure but he may have lost a congressional race to flippo early on also. Does anyone remember that?
Davis should win with a combination of the black vote and the white vote along in the big four metro areas. Maybe Sparks can bring a lot of rural voters into the primary that haven’t voted in a while, but I just don’t see the numbers adding up. Artur’s pool of voters is so large and I see Ron Sparks having minimal appeal among whites in the Big Four suburbs.
That said, Sparks seems to be a creative politician. He’s got a compelling background (then again, so does Davis). Also, Alabama is about due for a real deal populist to make a run and Sparks is certainly that.
So to all you Byrne and James fans, what I hear is that 2 subpar white guys still trump a uber-accomplished black guy in the Great State of Alabama?
What a croc… we will see
What if? Thats a good name for itzy bitzy Jim’s memoirs. Ive often said if itzy bitzy Jim had won that US Senate race in ‘80. He probably wouldve assumed the role that Gore took on the national stage. If not he probably wouldve stayed in the Senate until 2004 at which point he wouldve went down in flames. 86,92 and 98 were great democrat years so he probably would have won in landslides. He would be on the speaking circuit now giving speeches and working as a lobbyist making millions and telling stories about his daddy humongous Jim.
36, what you are telling us is that Davis and his supporters like yourself will play the race card?
probably…we will see
#36 D, you may want to save the smack for your weekly hero worship sessions at the nearest Kool-Aid watering hole.
#33 Mr. Viability, touche, don’t agree, but I caught your drift. Don’t have a dog in the fight, but seems Hubbert thought the same thing about Byrne and proceeded to get his tail kicked. Waaaay too early for folks to be so cocky and self-assured, but it makes for fun conversation. Has James been working on doing the monkey? (oh wait, that was dad, sorry I couldn’t resist)
Davis throws the first fastball – what will Sparks do?
http://www.progressiveelectorate.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=992
Davis’ shot at Sparks says to me that the Davis camp reads Sparks as thinskinned and they are trying to goad him into a fumble when he is pressed with some of his own quotes.
Interesting only in one context: anyone who has seen Davis’ career, which is probably not many of the college kids on this blog, remembers that he is a very aggresive campaigner. His negative ads on Hilliard were brutal (if a white candidate had run them, they would have been called racist) and he took some very hard shots at Joe Reed during the presidential.
Davis is a real political player. Bedford and Sparks will be easy targets for him.