Posted by Potential funders for a Kay Ivey campaign are receiving these numbers (below) from a poll conducted by Kellyanne Conway for Ivey.
The poll divided the state into four regions. The sample for each region was 500 likely voters, and the poll has a 4% margin of error.
North: Calhoun, Cherokee, Cleburne, Colbert, Cullman, DeKalb, Etowah, Franklin, Jackson, Lauderdale, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, Marion, Marshall, Morgan, Winston Counties
Central: Bibb, Blount, Chambers, Chilton, Clay, Coosa, Fayette, Jefferson, Lamar, Pickens, Randolph, Shelby, St. Clair, Talladega, Tallapoosa, Tuscaloosa, Walker Counties
Southeast: Autauga, Barbour, Bullock, Butler, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw, Dale, Dallas, Elmore, Geneva, Henry, Houston, Lee, Lowndes, Macon, Montgomery, Perry, Pike, Russell Counties
Southwest: Baldwin, Choctaw, Clarke, Escambia, Greene, Hale, Marengo, Mobile, Monroe, Sumter, Washington, Wilcox Counties
Not a big surprise to see that state Treasurer Ivey, the only one included here who has been elected to statewide office, has much stronger numbers in most regions at this early stage than 2-Year College Chancellor Bradley Byrne or Troy University Chancellor Jack Hawkins. The exception here is in Byrne’s home area of southwest Alabama where his numbers are much closer to Ivey’s.
AG Troy King would no doubt have strong name ID numbers, but no one seems to think he is actually going to run for Governor. (Look for an announcement from him this month.) Businessman Tim James has announced his candidacy but is not included here. (Beyond his cadre of true believers, he is going to have to go some distance to convince others of his viability as a candidate.)
Legislative Dispatch
Purple Dot Connection
2010 Big List
2010 Senate Elections
2010 House Elections
Press Releases
Her NEGATIVE name ID will be through the roof after the PACT collapse.
Stick a fork in her.
Danny – was this sent out after the letter announcing the PACT collapse on February 27? Looks like a desparate rear-guard action . . .
The PACT situation story – with Kay’s color picture right next to it – is the lead story on al.com right now. Soon this will be the one thing Ivey is most known for. It may not be fair, but the Albatross is being attached to her neck right now.
We’re in a financial meltdown and she is now ID’ed in the public mind with a major Alabama Three Mile Island. I don’t see how anyone will take her seriously now, especially since no one but Kay was taking her seriously before.
She is done. Anyone running against her will bring up the collapse of PACT and ACES. She is most likely done in politics. While that is not her fault she is the one who chose to use that office as her jumping off point. That office is what will tank her.
If she takes responsibility people will crucify her.
If she tries to shun responsibility people will attack her on that.
Crucifixions, albatross necklaces, nuclear meltdowns and impalings by fork…
Always good to hear nuggets of insanity from the Tim James and Roy Moore camps.
Y’all keep battling it out in the blogosphere for the 10% share of the Kookweed vote and leave the other 90% in the primary in play for the serious candidates.
#4 – I agree we should only concern ourselves with “serious” candidates. That rules out Kay Ivey.
I’m only going to concern myself with “serious” responses. That rules out you.
Did you actually see the numbers Danny posted, or did the use of more than 2 colors throw off your ability to comprehend graphs?
touche, scorpius, touche – nicely done…
Scorpius,
They bring up valid points. Should she be tied to the PACT failure, the individuals who bought into that program will most likely vote against her. I know several families who put a large portion of their savings into that program under the pretense that this would support their children’s future. If the program goes under, so do a large number of votes in her favor.
On a side note I think Bradley would be ill advised if he decides to move forward with candidacy. A move toward governorship at this point would really only act to undermine the good work he is doing and the change that he is orchestrating.
name recognition and positive name recognition are two different animals. Obama would have 100% name Id in Alabama, would not win the election.
Tom,
The pact plan is not the “Alabama Kids Go to College On Kay Ivey’s Dime” plan.
In other words, even though she is the elected official who administers the plan, the plan is a state of Alabama plan. Kay Ivey, to my knowledge, does not sit at her desk everyday engaged in daytrading to get the best returns for the program.
The legislature knows this since they are responsible for the law under which she operates. The legislature is not going to let that plan collapse.
What’s humorous about this discussion is that in this day and age of trillion dollar bailouts, who seriously thinks the Obama administration is going to screw college-bound kids after funding BS like ACORN and LEGO museums?
There are $12 trillion dollars sitting on the sidelines right now until the economy rebounds. When the 12 trillion pours back into the market, the pact portfolio will shoot up like a rocket.
I don’t know what kind of PR team Ivey has, but it would seem to me that the issue could be properly and easily explained to head off any damage to her political viability.
The screeching from Larry, Curly and Moe, er, Andy, Viability and No is completely overblown.
“who seriously thinks the Obama administration is going to screw college-bound kids after funding BS like ACORN and LEGO museums?”
I do. College bound kids hard working hard to become productive members of society. Find another place Obama supports work incentives. He already is trying to not allow private lenders to offer student loans. Ivey will be held responsible for the losses if for no other reason than she took so much credit for the gains. You can’t have your cake and eat it too
are working hard*
Scorpius you are dreaming if you don’t think this will hurt Kay. Badly.
This was a front-page negative story with her picture next to it. It’s the biggest news story on her this year and maybe ever. That can’t be dismissed. I don’t think PR can fix it either. She doesn’t have any accomplishments to put in apposition to this negative.
I really didn’t think she had a chance before (and I will admit I have always been highly skeptical of her chances), but this really just seals this off.
I don’t know if she could win reelection as State Treasurer after this (if she was elgible which of course she isn’t). That puts her in Troy King Territory – and Troy has even bigger “name ID” than her.
It doesn’t help him either and he’ll never be governor – just like Kay.
I purchased a PACT for my grandchild. I am not overly concerned at this point as my grandchild will not be going to college for a long time yet. I certainly do not blame Kay Ivey for the PACT problems and the economy. The investment team in Birmingham was selected long before Ivey arrived in the Treasurer’s Office. I have had my doubts about the wisdom of the investment team for a long time.
Kay Ivey is the state Treasurer. The State Treasurer’s office is in charge of the PACT and ACES boards. The PACT and ACES boards are collapsing. The biggest thing that Kay Ivey’s elected position is in charge of is tanking hard. No way to explain that away.
If she can’t run on the PACT and ACES boards then she has absolutely nothing to run on.
By the way, we should be appalled that an elected official is put in charge of something as big as the PACT board and that thing collapses this much and that elected official tries to tell us that she had nothing to do with it. She was elected to have something to do with it. This is the job that we elected her to do. No excuses can separate her from her responsibility and none should.
She wanted this responsibility and she got it. She failed and now her internet mouth piece is trying to say she isn’t responsible for the office she was elected to run.
I think it is pathetic to suggest that she not be tied to the PACT and ACES boards.
I purchased one of these for my child. I am pissed. I am gonna do the American thing and blame someone. Guess who? Kay Ivey. If this program was doing great she would be telling everyone it happened on her watch. Now she wants to say don’t blame me it is those crooked folks on Wall Street.
There isn’t a soul in Alabama aside from Ivey’s opponents’ campaign operatives who know what these things are.
That said this is like polling for morons and her funders should feel slightly insulted.
#17 I agree some of these attacks on Kay have gotten too extreme. But I would strongly suggest that the 50,000 Alabama families who purchased the PACTs know exactly what they are and are very concerned.
A good point was made above: Kay took an enormous amount of credit for the PACT program during good times even though she really had nothing to do with creating it or putting it on good financial footing. Now that it is tanking, she is telling anyone who will listen that she really doesn’t have any power over it.
She can’t have it both ways. And her unwillingness to accept responsibility is not a good trait in a leader.
The PACT story is bad news for Ivey for multiple reasons–it hurts her with donors and operatives who were already questioning the strength of her candidacy and it takes away what would have been one of the major planks in her platform.
Is anyone finished a year and a half before a primary? Not unless it is a personal scandal or evidence of corruption. But it is likely that Ivey’s image is going to take a short term battering and it is not clear that she is strong enough to survive it.
One of two things may happen here..there may be a major push to consolidate the GOP around Bradley Byrne or someone who has gotten out..Hawkins, Bonner, Jimmy Rane, or even Troy King may get back in.
19. You make very solid points.
sorry kay supporters, but this means nothing. they may know her name but that doesn’t mean they see her as the next Governor. Kay shold really consider lowering her ambitions and run for Lt. Gov.
I think Lt. Gov is beyond her reach. Way beyond.
The numbers for Jack Hswkins do not reflect how quickly people will connect his face and name once he gets in the race. He has blitzed the tv with ads for Troy Un. for several years. He has serious commitments of help and will roar onto the campaign scene. I would put my money on him anyday. I am ready for him to take the big step.
Jack Hawkins is out. He has some rather large problems if he runs.
No: Explain
Hawkins has taken money (and lots of it) from people who have drawn boycotts from nationally-known Christian groups due to truly reprehensible behavior. Other high-profile people have publicly renounced the financial support of people that Hawkins and Troy have solicited, taken money from, and put the support of Troy (and Troy’s name) behind. There is more. He will not run.
I have heard he will run. He has made his retirement at Troy and is free to go. Do you think he will run for any office?