Posted by A poll from Anzalone-Liszt has encouraging results for Artur Davis and his potential candidacy for governor in 2010. The press release from the Davis camp is below.
A few points about the release and the process…
- The poll only tested Davis head-to-head against Republicans Bradley Byrne, Jack Hawkins, and Kay Ivey. On a conference call this morning, John Anzalone said those appeared to be the Republican candidates with the most credibility. He acknowledged that it is “a little arbitrary” but that there is also a concern of “respondent fatigure,” saying that you can only test so many names in a single poll.
- The poll was conducted January 8-14 in an attempt to avoid any inaugural bounce.
- A generic Democrat polls at 33% in the 2010 Governor’s race. Davis polls easily higher than that.
Davis’ showings against each Republican outpace the 33 percent of respondents who say that without knowing the names of the candidates, they would be more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate for governor in 2010. In each match-up, Davis runs well ahead of the generic Democratic vote with white votes: against Hawkins, he runs nine points ahead of the core white Democratic vote, 12 points better against Byrne, and 11 points better against Ivey.
- Anzalone acknowledged on the call that polling for African-Americans can be “a little tricky” but that they had done the polling for Obama in many deep South states, so they had some experience with it.
- Anzalone reminded us that early polls like this are polls on name ID. There is, of course, a lot of yet unspent money that will go into defining these candidates and their opponents.
- Anzalone: In Alabama, “white voters have a higher proclivity to vote Democratic in state races than in federal races. We have to get in the mindset that there are more white voters available to Democrats in state races.”
Here is the full text of the release from the Davis team.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
January 26, 2009
Media Contact:
Anna Ruth Williams
DAVIS, REPUBLICANS IN DEAD HEAT IN 2010 GOVERNOR’S RACE; DAVIS CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTH ACROSS RACIAL LINES
BIRMINGHAM - In a survey of 600 Alabamians conducted from January 8-14, 2009, by the polling firm of Anzalone-Liszt Research Inc., U. S. Rep. Artur Davis (D-Bham) is locked in a statistical dead heat with three leading potential Republican candidates for Governor. Davis is tied with State Treasurer Kay Ivey, 42 to 42 percent, leads Two Year College Chancellor Bradley Byrne 42 to 38 percent, and trails Troy University Chancellor Jack Hawkins 39 to 44 percent.
Davis’ showings against each Republican outpace the 33 percent of respondents who say that without knowing the names of the candidates, they would be more likely to vote for a Democratic candidate for governor in 2010. In each match-up, Davis runs well ahead of the generic Democratic vote with white votes: against Hawkins, he runs nine points ahead of the core white Democratic vote, 12 points better against Byrne, and 11 points better against Ivey. According to Davis’ general consultant Ben Chao of Chao Strategy Message and Media Inc., “This poll basically says two important things. One, Congressman Davis can win a statewide campaign for Governor in 2010. Two, Davis has amazing crossover appeal from Republicans and Independents alike in a general election. Its still early but the electability metrics for Davis are through the roof.”
Davis’ overall popularity ratings with white voters are approximately two to one favorable, with a majority of whites knowing enough about Davis to have an opinion. In comparison, Lt. Governor Jim Folsom also has a favorable to unfavorable ratio of about two to one with white voters. Among white Democrats, Davis shows broad appeal, with a favorable to unfavorable number of 51 to six percent unfavorable. Among demographic subgroups, Davis shows particular strength with white males 18 to 54, with a favorable to unfavorable split of 41 to 16 percent, and white females over 55, with a favorable to unfavorable ratio of 38 to 12 percent. In fact, with whites 45-54, Davis is almost tied with Ivey, trailing only 39 to 44 percent.
With black voters, Davis remains by a large margin the most popular political figure at the state political level. Sixty-five percent of black voters hold a favorable opinion of Davis, while only four percent hold an unfavorable view.
The survey also tested the impact when respondents were informed of Davis’ identity as an African American. According to pollster John Anzalone, “While race is an impossible factor to evaluate in any campaign, it is fair to say that when white voters learn that Davis is black, that fact alone does not shift them away from Davis. On balance, when they are told that he is a black congressman from Birmingham, Davis’ support actually moves up in a majority of the white subgroups based on gender and age.”
Respondents were asked if they believe that Alabama is ready to elect a black governor in 2010. A majority (51 percent) agree, while 38 percent disagree. These results are virtually unchanged from the July sample, which split 53 percent agree to 37 percent disagree. Sixty-nine percent of voters overall say that they believe their family members would consider voting for a black candidate for governor, while 18 percent say that their family members would not be willing to consider voting for a black.
Davis spokesperson Anna Ruth Williams stated that “As Congressman Davis prepares to announce his plans regarding the governor’s race, it is apparent that he is in a leading or dead even position with the leading Republican contenders in a wide range of published and unpublished polls conducted in Alabama in the last several months. These polls only confirm what he experiences as he moves around the state and receives constant encouragement to return home to run for Governor.”
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hope this guarantees that he will run for governor. and i hope that he, and his team, actually buy in to this poll. Good to know that when everyone else says he can’t win, Artur’s pollster says he can. was getting worried he wouldn’t run, whew.
He can win; I’m just not sure any Democrat can defeat the Folsom machine in an Alabama primary. And I mean that as a compliment of highest sort.
I believe that there is absolutely now way Davis can win the general nor can he defeat the Folsom machine. Here’s why:
1) Race, there is no way he can sway a 10% white vote for Obama to 38% for himself
2) While he’s a popular and a somewhat national power figure in DC, Alabamians don’t particularly like “national politicians”
3) Security, as Artur is traveling around the state he won’t have the safety and security of the Secret Service to protect him (Alabama’s large white supremacist population)
4) While everyone can identify him, not a one can recollect anything thing that he has done for this Great State, usually
5) 40 years old and newly married
6) He is in the back pocket of the BCA and Joe Reed and the ADC don’t really care for him
So in short, please, Congressman Davis stay in Washington, don’t ruin your political career or the Democratic Party chances in 2010.
You’ll like Congressman Smitherman. He’ll bring that touch of Birmingham Politics to Washinghton.
So Tim James and Jo Bonner are out?
Folsom machinery? What? You mean cronyism?
I fully imagine that Davis’ campaign will be a breath of fresh air in this good ‘ole boy state full of disgusting machine Democrats. I imagine you’ll see a lot of Republicans jumping aisles to vote for Davis in a primary. And a lot of inspired Democrats proud to vote for Davis, not because he is a black man, but because he is a brilliant and compassionate visionary.
“compassionate visionary,” whoa – now that is some kool-aid…i applaud you claire, at least you are a proud homer, the congressman should be glad to have such a cult. just not sure you will see “a lot of Republicans jumping aisles” as you say, but not because of color, but rather, because of policy.
yeah, JD, can’t you see Rodger and Carole kicked back in the newly renamed white house, “the house of obama,” having cocktails and laughing at “those people” back in alabama…oh lord help us
Congressman Davis has done a great job representing his district and working for the state as a whole, but I do not believe that he can win state-wide general election. This is still a state where only 10% (?) of white voters voted for President Obama. Yes, many McCain voters across the country now approve of President Obama, but not many of them are here in Alabama. As for the tired cries of Folsom cronyism, he won (closely) a tough race based on being himself and asking for voters’ support. With their histories of trying to help Alabamians with jobs and education opportunities, either would be a great Governor. Certainly better than some of the 1-issue candidates on the other side of the aisle.
May I address the 500 pound elephant in the room? Why are Artur and Anzalone doing backflips to keep from polling (or releasing the numbers they already have) on a Davis Folsom matchup? Isn’t that the only question that matters? Folsom’s folks have those numbers and that’s why you arent’ seeing any squirming, mouthing off, or concern over the “chihuahua humping a table leg” approach to the Governor’s race exhibited by Davis.
Wow, TroyDem. Are you sure you didn’t mean to call yourself FolsomDem? Pretty shameless to allege race-driven violence as a scare tactic.
Clearly you would like to believe these “hunches” about the status quo (thrown in the pot with a little bit of stereotyping and a whole lot of rumor mill nonsense)made Artur Davis unelectable, but your points were moot before you made them bc the numbers speak for themselves. Sounds like youd rather talk down to Alabamians so long as it works to your advantage. Kinda like when an auto mechanic tries to hoodwink customers into believing something vital to their car is broken so they’ll buy a new car from their boy down the street. I’ll tell you what, if that’s the kind of rhetoric we can expect from Sparks/Folsom/Yournamehere, then I am officially voting for Davis.
Anon. #11, I’ll have you know I drive around everyday with my Obama/Biden bumper sticker and even campaigned for Obama. So it’s not about color to me; however, it is to the large percentage of Alabama voters. Do you not realize that Alabama is the only state that had a larger vote for Kerry in ‘04? Even, with a larger African American turnout that provided Bright and Griffith the numbers they needed to win. Image this, with all that was wrong with the Republican Party in ‘08 people that voted for Kerry (even some Dems) voted for John McCain and race had a large factor in their decision.
I’m just turning off my political blinders and offering a pragmatic approach. I don’t doubt Anzalone’s numbers, I just doubt that the stars, moons, and planets will align for Davis to reach the numbers he needs.
I’m not surprised by this poll…i heard that some high powered Dems paid for a recent matrix poll that showed Davis beating these Republicans plus Bonner and James…by the way, #10, the same poll had Davis beating Folsom by 13…
No one should underestimate Davis. He is shrewd about public opinion, witness his bashing of the unpopular Jefferson County Commission and his thrashing of the state dems on the pr front on their patronage committee. His liability is that any congressman casts a bunch of votes that can be distorted or put in a bad light.
I think Davis will need some breaks, like a bitter Repblican fight, but I have heard about too many polls showing Davis running well (AEA, matrix, Anzalone) to buy the Davis is a sure loser argument.
TroyDem wrote:
Do you not realize that Alabama is the only state that had a larger vote for Kerry in ‘04? Even, with a larger African American turnout that provided Bright and Griffith the numbers they needed to win.
The Press-Register believes you are incorrect. An article titled “The Political Skinny: Obama’s Alabama numbers top Kerry” on November 10 had this:
Do you have a source for your claim?
I believe I got the statewide numbers confused with my home county.
#15’s response is exactly what is wrong with a lot of the early analysis on the governor’s race. Much of it is nonfactual conjecture from people touting one candidate or another.
Example: a lot of these postings say Kay Ivey is a joke. Fact: the early polling shows her leading the GOP field and running well against Davis or Folsom.
Example: The “Folsom machine”. Folsom has run one race in 14 years, did not have to face a primary, and most Alabamians under 50 have no memory of his family.
Example: It matters what Joe Reed and ADC think about Davis. Would this be the Joe Reed whose candidate lost the black vote to Davis’ candidate, 85-15 in Alabama?
Now, the Davis supprters do it too, with their swipes at Folsom’s ethics. If Luther Strange could not make headway with this issue, I doubt Davis could either.
But the bottom line: let’s let the candidates tee it up and see which of them actually can organize a campaign and lay out a message.
If Anzalone says it, its true. Take it to the bank. If he gets his boy Mallory to work for Davis, then he has an even better chance.
I’m not completely convinced, but if anyone can do it, they can.
I would say this poll is great news for Bradley Byrne and Jack Hawkins, and bad news for Artur Davis and Kay Ivey.
No one outside of Montgomery or the two-year school system really knows who Byrne is, yet he trails Davis by only four points. Davis is easily the most well known of Alabama’s seven members of the U.S. House. He has been all over the national media for the last two years, especially recently.
Hawkins’s commercials seem to really be paying off. Again, he’s only known in Troy, yet he’s winning by five points.
Ivey should be polling much better than either of these two, and she’s really not. And Davis should be polling much better than Byrne and Hawkins too.
I’m also very curious to see a head to head match-up of Davis and Folsom.
Also, what is the margin of error in this poll?
These early polls are nothing but grist for speculation and conversation. They mean nothing today, next month, in six months or next year.
JP, there is no bad news in a snapshot today of names that haven’t yet formed official campaigns, run messages and sought the support of actual voters.
The useful things in these polls today are not the standings in name ID, but the other information asked along with ID, much of which the pollsters don’t share with the general public.
Get a grip, guys.
Alabama soundly rejected Barack Obama in November. Arthur Davis will suffer the same fate if he runs in 2010.
#13, if a poll existed showing Davis beating Folsom (which I assure you does not exist), common sense tells you that he would be rubbing the world’s face in those numbers.
There are probably no Davis vs Folsom numbers because this is a poll of all voters, not just Democrats. And the Montgomery Advertiser article says that no other Dems were tested against the Republicans. It might be interesting for us to know, but why would Artur really care how Folsom does against the Republicans?
“Anzalone acknowledged on the call that polling for African-Americans can be “a little tricky” ”
That means you lkeep raising the Black Turnout % until your candidate is ahead
To the posters who question the absence of Davis-Folsom numbers in this poll: this is a red herring. Obviously, Davis’ strategy is to rebut the claims of many Dems that he has no realistic shot in a general election. Other than a few Folsom die-hards (and even they know better) no one seriously questions that Davis would be in a very competitive position in a 45-50% black primary against Folsom.
My guess is that Davis decided to poll the question that really is at issue – how he does in the general.
As for #18, I think you miss a big, big point in Davis’ release. According to the release, Davis does significantly better with the generic white Democratic vote against all 3 Republicans. I can’t quite figure out from the release what the generic Republican number is; but it is significant that Davis is apparently pulling in votes from Independents and Republicans. Whether that trend will hold up after a bitter campaign is very much an open question. But to say that these numbers are bad for Davis is either very lame spin or a genuine misunderstanding of this polling data.
#16, right on point about Joe Reed…the same Joe Reed that has so much political clout that he had to watch the inauguration from a mexican restaurant because he couldn’t get in
the commentary Davis gave on Fannie May and Freddie Mac as well as his support of “card check” will kill him in the general.
Support for easier unionization will not play well in the state
JD wrote in comment 23:
That means you keep raising the Black Turnout % until your candidate is ahead
The sample for this poll was 24% African American, according to the Davis folks. In comparison, the African American turnout in Alabama during the Obama election last November was
25.5%.Correction: The African American turnout in Alabama last November was actually estimated to be 29%. See comment #42 below.
#26 mentions Davis’ defense of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. You must have missed all of the coverage Davis got for admitting that he was wrong to defend Fannie and Freddie. If I recall correctly, none other than Sean Hannity, was praising him for having the guts to admit he and other Democrats were wrong.
I think you have a much better point on “card check”. This will hurt him with pro business voters and it should. But from a cold eyed political perspective, we know what would happen if Davis opposed the unions here. The whole union crowd in North and East Alabama would line up behind Folsom and a significant chunk of white working class Democrats would be off the table for Davis. It seems to me that Davis has to hold these white working class Democrats, which in North Alabama, Obama did not do to beat any Republican. My guess is Anzalone and Dav,is get this and that probably explains his hard to defend position from the BCA’s perspective.
#28 – exactly how many of those voters are there? 150?
In response to #24:
I didn’t miss the big, big point. I think the Davis folks missed the point. Of course they are going to paint the numbers in the best possible way for him. It’s called spin. And hey, it just might work, it often does.
Davis SHOULD have MUCH better numbers than Byrne or Hawkins given his level of exposure in my opinion. That is all I am arguing.
Also, I think there is a reason you can’t figure out the Republican generic number–they didn’t print it. And that’s probably because it was much better than the Democratic generic number.
But anyway, I still think this poll spells a bit of bad news for Davis, and I think that’s unfortunate. I’m pretty sure he’d have my vote if he won the Democratic primary.
Anzalone is a good, credible pollster who is also very good at creating the best possible polling memo for his client to sell. It is well known in Montgomery that Davis has been being told by people all over Alabama (i.e., potential contributors) that he cannot win in November, so, miraculously, they come up with a memo that, arguably, shows they can indeed win in November. However, anyone who is familiar with polling will discount the “generic” argument. When you ask a voter if they would vote for a D or an R for Governor, in Alabama you are basically going to get one third on each side, and one third saying they don’t know, that it will depend on who the candidates are. So that accounts for the 33 percent who would support a generic Democrat. But it also means that the three Republicans outpolled the generic Republican, as well.
Having spoken with Folsom people,I don’t think they believe the primary will be easy. They think it will be expensive, harsh (all one has to do is look at the number of posters supporting Davis who try to take pot-shots at Folsom already), and injure the party’s nominee for the general election. That being said, they have data that shows they can win in June and in November.
24% was at the high end for a Governors race, as the 25.5% the potential is there, I would be susprised if Davis pushes turnout that high. Vivian Figures did not pull enought crossover votes to win even with 25.5%
JD and Scorpius, aren’t you the people who were on here all during the 08 election cycle crowing about how Bobby Bright had no chance, and saying that Anzalone’s polling was wrong – even though he never showed Bright losing, and Bright, in point of fact, did not lose?
What I mean is, you guys come on this website and run your traps, and Anzalone wins elections for his clients. Way to go.
There are some amazingly convoluted analyses of this poll on this blog. Some attempt at clarity: Davis,who some suggest is unelectable in Alabama, runs a statistical tie with a Republican office holder who has won statewide, runs ahead of a Republican who has received glowing press from the state’s editorial boards for a year and a half now, and runs narrowly behind a Republican who looks exactly like a Governor and benefits from commercials promoting him all over the state. Not exactly case closed but not a bad sample for a guy who Turnham and Co. say will destroy the democratic party in 2010.
Also, not a bad showing for any Democrat in a state that leans Republican for any major office. According to a posting I have seen on another blog, the generic Republican number in this survey was 42%. So let’s do this slowly… Davis runs ahead of the 33% Democrat number, while Hawkins and Ivey essentially just pull the people who say they just plan to vote for any Republican for Governor. Bradley B. falls a little short of the generic Republican number. Again, no reason to get carried away for the Davis people. But these numbers do show strength.
Final point- It is well known in Montgomery that there are a number of polls in the last several months showing both Davis and Folsom beating the Republican field. Republicans know it. That’s why Riley is trying to talk Davis’ buddy Bonner into running. Key Dems know it. That’s why they have been trying so hard to push donors away from Davis.
I don’t have a dog in the Davis v. Folsom fight but some of the efforts to spin against Davis just don’t hold water.
This poll can be almost completely attributed to the bounce in name I.D. that Davis has received due the fact that his name has been in a headline on the cover of at least one of the big four papers everyday for the last two years. When name I.D. begins to even out, as it will once money starts being spent, you will see the republican candidates, especially a Hawkins or Byrne, pulling out ahead with the independent voters.
These polls mean very little at this point
Has anyone factored in Tim James with his $50 million? If fundraising is tight, James might win the GOP nomination.
1. Common Sense’s conclusion at the end of #35 just echoed the same point I made in comment #19. I stand by it.
2. Flack, I can’t speak for JD, but I don’t think I ever “crowed” about Bright having no chance last year. If you can pull up a past comment I made, I’ll eat crow, but I believe you have me mistaken with somebody else.
My memory ain’t the greatest, but I don’t remember my beating the “Jay Love’s gonna win” drum all that much, if at all. I was not impressed with his choice of GC and was less impressed by his actual campaign.
Thanks for keeping me on your mind, though, it means you care.
3. Lyn, yeah, with $50 million James “might” win the GOP nomination, but with $50 million, so might Harry Lyons. I don’t think James is so ego-inflated or just plain stupid to spend that kind of money, but crazier things have happened (like flushing $1,000,000 taxpayers’ dollars in Jefferson County down the toilet for DC lobbyists).
My gut tells me that even if James spent half that, he still loses the nomination. He’s sorta like Joan Rivers: spending gobs of wasted money for a much-needed makeover to no avail.
I think everyone is either underestimating James or deliberately margionalizing him. Watch out for James.
Little George couldn’t follow Big George, Little Jim couldn’t follow Big Jim, and Tim won’t follow Fob. Alabamians frown on the concept of royal families. Are you listening, Rob?
The James crowd is targeting the Huckabee vote, which was enough to win the Republican primary here. What his consultants miss is that what drew many Alabama GOPers to Huckabee is that he reminded them of Bob Riley, moderate Governor, conversational style, etc. These suburban voters are far more likely to find their way to Byrne or Hawkins. There is a religious right vote out there–after all, Moore got 33% against Riley, but James does not have the history with these folks that Moore did, and Ivey will get more than a chunk of it, particularly with rural women.
Folsom V. Davis poll – http://www.progressiveelectorate.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=898
A reader questioned, I inquired, and there is a correction on the % of African-American turnout in Alabama in November mentioned in comment #27 above.
The African-American turnout in Alabama for the November election was estimated to be 29%, not the 25.5% figure I was erroneously given for the above comment.
A 29% figure of African-American turnout in November is some better for Davis supporters looking at these poll #’s, because the 24% African-American sample that they used for the poll is even more conservative compared to actual turnout in November than compared to the erroneous number.
I voted for McCain, but it had NOTHING to do with race. I have always been a McCain supporter. I like President Obama. As a moderate Independent, I have always liked Artur Davis. He has my vote, and many of my friends who voted for McCain said he’s their choice for Governor too. I honestly do not like Folsom, but even more I do not like the EXTREME Republicans here! I think Davis has a good chance. Let’s let him run if he wants. That is what primaries are for!
Although Moore is absolutely preposterous, Kay Ivey is barely better. I heard her interviewed on the absurd PAC(sp?) program and she could well be mentally retarded. Somehow she doesn’t understand the fundamental flaw of a program that requires a return that exceeds the cost of tuition growth. There aren’t a lot of risk-free assets (read: none) that will do that for you. So, when things go in the toilet (which they do from time to time) the jig will be up….Those programs may exist elsewhere, but it feels like an “only in Alabama” idea.
Artur could win. Seems like a decent guy, knows how to play good ol’ boy politics and has the best-interest of Alabamians at heart.
I’d bet on a nail-biter between Fob Jr. and Artur….