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Here are the data (.pdf) that were released to the media (referenced here in the Montgomery Advertiser, for example) from a poll conducted for state Treasurer Kay Ivey by Kellyanne Conway. The numbers are good for Ivey, and her team is naturally intending to demonstrate her viability as a potential gubernatorial candidate. Noticeably absent are the favorability ratings for other potential gubernatorial candidates. To that point, a senior adviser to Kay Ivey said this:
Kay is not running against anybody, she’s running for higher office. So it really doesn’t make any difference who else is running. Kay has strong statewide appeal, high favorables and the seed money to begin to organize an effective campaign. We’re very pleased with our numbers. They’re strong and if any other candidate has similar numbers from a reputable pollster, they can also provide them to the media.
Time constraints prohibit me from digging into the numbers and commenting further just now, but I would be interested in your observations.
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I would be interested to see the names of the people who are on her team.
It’s clear that Kay Ivey is going to be a serious candidate for Governor- to all those who still have their doubts about her political ability, don’t underestimate her. She is lining up key players across the state to get behind her and will have a formidable campaign organization by the time she announces.
I have no doubt that she will be a serious candidate, but I too would like to know some of the names of her early supporters. Seems like to me that most of the players within the party will wait to see who all is running before they commit to her or anybody else.
Her name ID and favorability numbers show that she has a lot of campaigning to do before she is a serious candidate. Considering how many people voted for her in her last election yet so many people don’t know who she is completely discredits her past election results. She clearly won because she was Republican.
Also, the bulk of the questions asking what will affect your vote are bogus. Nobody is going to answer they will discriminate against a person for any reason. Yet, it has been proven that people don’t vote with that same sense of morality.
These are just more reason to support Treasurer Ivey
I think Ivey will at least make the GOP run-off.
What would be interesting to see are the tabs of the voters identified as Conservative Repubs. These are the base of the GOP primary. How she fared with them (the numbers in this poll show that she enjoyed support in the 60’s) versus other names is where the rubber meets the road. Also, what were the numbers for the other names that were rotated with hers in the ID question? I’d doubt that a Byrne, Hubbard or Hawkins would be any higher than hers. The remaining names of King, James and Strange might register higher for ID, but what are the favs/unfavs for them?
Ivey has huge upside potential, she just can’t get outflanked on the right. This poll looks geared for a general election assessment, but that is way premature. As I said before, I’d like to see more of the relevant tabs from certain/near-certain GOP primary voters.
I am not impressed by this poll. First, why is Ivey avoiding head to head match-ups with Folsom and Davis? She is a statewide officeholder who should be beating or tying both of them in a Republican leaning state. Could it be that AEA’s numbers, which had her trailing both Artur and Jim, spooked her out of testing her showing in a general?
Same logic for the primary. Other than King, who is too damaged to win, what other Republican would have statewide name rec? If Ivey is strong, she should be leading the Republican field. If for some reason she isn’t, she is far weaker than she claims. The fact that she didn’t release even the primary numbers is telling.
I am beginning to understand why the Repubs are begging Jo Bonner. They have a weak field that is underperforming in general matchups against both a black and a has-been who has high negatives.
The lack of horserace matchups is not particularly surprising. If you look at the story in the Advertiser, however, it does say that the poll did test favorability ratings of other potential candidates. It is somewhat curious why the Ivey folks did not release those numbers – maybe because they don’t have a good explanation for why their numbers, after 6 years as a statewide officeholder, only have a 24 favorable, and didn’t want to compare that with other potential opponents, like Troy King or Luther Strange? Having worked on numerous campaigns, I am of the opinion that horseraces this far out are, in large part, meaningless – the numbers are going to change based on fundraising, how the dollars are spent, and a host of other variables that aren’t even known yet. After all, this far out from the 2008 presidential race, who would have guessed the 2 nominees would have been Barack Obama and John McCain?
Kay would be a good candidate – for Lt. Governor. She has no chance at Governor. None. She is not taken seriously by the players in Montgomery, she cannot raise the $15 million it will take to win the primary and the general election, and she has no reeal accomplishments – she has just taken an easy job (one that George Walace Jr. and Lucy Baxley did JUST AS WELL as she has done in)and kept her nose clean.
Nope. No way. No how. No chance.
“No Way Kay.” That should be her new nickname.
Boy. 10 comments in 4 days. 2 per day. Kay is just burning it up in interest.
No Way Kay. Empty Skirt 2.