Posted by Here are the Alabama counties whose voters voted Republican for President in greater percentage in 2008 than in 2004 (plus one county with no change) – in order from largest change in percentage to smallest.
| 2004 | 2008 | GOP | |||
| County | % Kerry | % Bush | % Obama | % McCain | Difference |
| Jackson | 42.5% | 56.8% | 30.7% | 67.7% | 11.0% |
| Cherokee | 33.6% | 65.5% | 23.7% | 75.0% | 9.6% |
| Lawrence | 44.0% | 55.2% | 35.3% | 63.4% | 8.2% |
| Marion | 29.6% | 69.8% | 21.1% | 77.4% | 7.6% |
| Franklin | 36.8% | 62.7% | 29.7% | 69.0% | 6.3% |
| Cullman | 22.9% | 76.2% | 16.6% | 82.1% | 5.9% |
| Lamar | 28.4% | 71.1% | 22.8% | 76.6% | 5.5% |
| Marshall | 26.8% | 72.3% | 21.3% | 77.8% | 5.4% |
| Etowah | 35.9% | 63.3% | 30.2% | 68.6% | 5.3% |
| DeKalb | 29.4% | 70.0% | 23.7% | 75.2% | 5.1% |
| Walker | 31.8% | 67.6% | 26.0% | 72.7% | 5.1% |
| Cleburne | 24.0% | 75.4% | 18.0% | 80.5% | 5.1% |
| Fayette | 30.1% | 69.2% | 25.0% | 74.0% | 4.8% |
| Colbert | 44.3% | 55.1% | 39.2% | 59.6% | 4.5% |
| Lauderdale | 39.4% | 59.7% | 35.1% | 63.4% | 3.6% |
| Blount | 18.3% | 80.9% | 14.6% | 84.2% | 3.4% |
| Clay | 28.8% | 70.3% | 25.6% | 73.5% | 3.2% |
| Washington | 38.1% | 61.4% | 35.0% | 64.5% | 3.2% |
| Winston | 21.5% | 78.0% | 17.6% | 81.0% | 3.0% |
| Covington | 23.4% | 76.0% | 20.5% | 78.9% | 2.9% |
| Limestone | 31.4% | 67.8% | 28.5% | 70.5% | 2.7% |
| Morgan | 30.1% | 69.1% | 27.6% | 71.5% | 2.4% |
| Chilton | 22.6% | 76.9% | 20.7% | 78.6% | 1.8% |
| Geneva | 20.1% | 79.3% | 18.3% | 80.9% | 1.6% |
| Randolph | 31.3% | 68.1% | 29.6% | 69.2% | 1.1% |
| Bibb | 27.5% | 72.0% | 26.6% | 72.6% | 0.6% |
| Coosa | 41.1% | 58.1% | 40.9% | 58.4% | 0.3% |
| Coffee | 25.4% | 73.9% | 25.2% | 74.2% | 0.3% |
| Crenshaw | 30.9% | 68.7% | 30.9% | 68.7% | 0.0% |
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Face the facts. As much as everyone would like to believe the difference in the presidential vote is mostly because of race, the truth is that a majority of Alabamians now identify more with the Republican party. It is not hard to understand when you look at the power structure of the national democrat party. There are really no Southerners involved to any great extent.
The Republican surge in north Alabama bodes ill for Artur Davis’ gubernatorial hopes. The counties that saw increases in GOP voting reads like a list of rural and small urban counties that a Democrat must do well in to win a statewide election, to overcome the GOP advantage in the suburbs.
The number of GOP voters went up as well as the number of Democratic voters, compared to 2004. It suggests that McCain supporters were alarmed at the prospect of an Obama presidency and were motivated to vote. It could also be read to suggest lingering racism in rural white voters.
This is fascinating. Great post. Makes you wonder what happened to make them go harder to the right in ‘08. Could it be ….. hmm ….. Satan?
I agree that north Alabama could pose a big challenge for Davis, but the operative question is whether Davis could offset those losses by actually winning Jefferson, Mobile, and Madison–most Democrats running statewide don’t win all three. (I think there’s no question he wins Montgomery based on Obama’s 60% there).
Also, could Davis get back some of the white Democrats in Northwest Alabama? AEA has a strong presence here and would engage to beat a Bradley Byrne in a big way. That alone helps Davis.
I’m not saying Davis would be the best candidate to beat a Republican. i think that is Folsom. but it is not clear to me that Davis has no pathway to win.
Also: these numbers suggest to me that the exit polls showing Obama getting 10 percent are probably an understatement.I heard Davis question the numbers in an interview and thought he was just spinning, but if Obama got eighteen percent in Cullman and 15 percent in Blount, two of the whitest counties in the state, that suggests he probably posted at least the same white numbers in other rural areas. The urban areas require more of a box by box analysis because they are racially mixed, but it seems from some news reports I have heard that Obama actually outperformed Kerry in white suburban boxes in Jefferson county.
Not saying Obama did much better than the 19%-20% number of whites in Alabama who voted for Kerry, but i think Davis has a point when he says Obama’s numbers were not different from Kerry in a major way.
I looked at the Birmingham News story on Obama’s numbers with white voters, which were close to 22%.I have heard from people in Montgomery, Mobile, and Huntsville that Obama put up numbers between 20 and 30 percent support in some white boxes there too and ran no worse than 20 percent in those boxes.
If Obama had gotten ten percent white support, he would have had to get below ten percent in a bunch of white boxes in the rural areas and the overall numbers don’t bear that out.
Correction to #5. I mean 22% white voters in Jefferson County.
#2 I absolutely believe it is rural white voter racism. The demographics of north Alabama do not bode well for Davis. Not only is he black, he is an Ivy League college graduate, another strike against him. He is not “one of them” for that reason too, even though most of these voters are Democrats.
While these folks are socially conservative, they still vote their pocketbooks, which include a lot of federal dollars and union dollars with Democrat hand prints on them.
Perhaps this is where Davis has a small in – if he appeals to the blue-collar worker and his/her benefits. The only other help I could see is if Obama encourages social programs (like socialized medicine) that directly benefits the average northwest Alabama worker, and Davis is able to ride those coat tails. Then, perhaps, the racial divide might fall, though I have my doubts.
I don’t see a big difference in the Obama Kerry numbers. Kerry ran notably better in a few north Alabama counties that frankly are very small. Obama ran a little better in the black counties, Kerry ran a little bit better in some largely white rural counties. Obama ran better in counties with better educated more affluent white populations. I also note that the black turnout in Alabama was no higher than four years ago.
I’m in between on the Artur Davis electability issue. I think if Davis had run for Senate against Sessions,he would not have exceeded 45%. But I suspect that if the economy is improving two years from now and the press continues its love affair with Obama, Davis may get a bump from that.
If Davis draws a Bradley Byrne, country club Republican, I would think he would think he could hold most white working class Democrats. Against Kay Ivey, I would think he would have a tougher time in rural areas and might lose some suburban women. I don’t see it being a blowout though.
Based on his television appearances, I think Davis actually made two smart moves in the last week: opposing a federal bailout for Jefferson County and refusing to criticize McCain supporters as racists. Both points have helped him with moderate white suburbanites in the Jefferson/Tuscaloosa/Shelby area. His newspaper comments about the importance of continuing the corruption probes in the Northern District are smart for the same reasons.
The Obama wipeout here is a short-term blow, that’s no doubt, but to his credit he seems to know where he needs to be politically to broaden his base.