Posted by There is an obvious list of winners and losers from last night. Beyond those, let’s consider others…
Who had a good night?
- U.S. Rep. Artur Davis – Wins a hotline into the White House to his friend Obama and has to be pleased about recruiting winners to run in the 2nd and 5th Congressional District.
- Republican Control of the Courts – After Sue Bell Cobb’s victory, business conservatives vowed to not let it happen again. Shaw’s campaign wasn’t pretty and Dems can claim a moral victory that that Pasuer ran ten points ahead of Obama. But at the end of the day the business conservatives got what they wanted. Republicans also continued their undefeated six year streak on the Criminal and Civil Appellate Courts.
- Josh Segall – From nowhere to 3 points short of upsetting a sitting Congressman, Segall ran a hard-charging campaign and has positioned himself for future runs.
- Harri Anne Smith – Smith’s tough year would have gotten worse if the man she crossed the aisle to endorse had lost. Instead Bobby Bright wins by only ~1700 votes. As the saying goes, “If you can’t be king, be kingmaker.” (Hers was not a passive endorsement, for example, the Parlor hears that Republicans on her email list received email from her asking them to support Bright.) Bright’s victory gives her a close relationship with her district’s sitting Congressman and perhaps she emerges as the GOP gatekeeper for him. Some GOP’ers have plenty of hard feelings for her, but with the Dems in the state Senate looking for one more vote in their caucus for a filibuster-proof majority, can the GOP alienate her? The point is not that Smith is in great shape all things considered; the point is that she is in better shape after last night than she was before.
- Joe Turnham – Some Dems had grumbled about the state Dem chair, but Democrats winning two competitive Congressional races (in a Presidential year, no less) will quieten any talk of a coup.
- Bob Riley – The Amendment One vote flew largely under the radar, but Riley had to breathe a sigh of relief to see the passage of this amendment he very much supported. Had it failed, significant cuts would have been necessary and Riley’s sky high ratings could have taken a Seigelmanesque dive in the wake of harsh proration.
- The DCCC – The national Democrats invested over two million dollars between the 2nd and 5th District and pulled out wins in nationally targeted races. The DCCC faced down both the NRCC and the conservative Freedom’s Watch and won head to head on Republican turf. While Josh Segall partisans may grumble that the DCCC could have made the difference in the 3rd District, the DCCC has done a lot to exorcise some of the demons from their allegedly unjustified (although there are some Dems who don’t fault the DCCC for this) pull out in 2002 that many believe cost Joe Turnham the AL-03 race.
- Beth Chapman – Given the spike in turnout and energy, chaos abounded in a few states yesterday. But Chapman oversaw a relatively smooth Election Day and continues to restore some tranquility to an office that saw its share of turmoil previously.
- Jefferson County Democrats – The Jefferson County Dems won every race in the county except against Sessions (who won 50.7%). The JeffCo GOP is unlikely to be a factor in future statewide races.
Who had a bad night?
- Bob Riley’s Coattails – Largely MIA again. The state’s most popular politician cannot transfer that popularity to other Republicans. The three candidates most closely tied to Riley all lost: Jay Love, Twinkle Cavanaugh and Wayne Parker.
Update: A reader posits that Greg Shaw is more closely tied to Riley than Wayne Parker, and Shaw won his Supreme Court race (barring an unexpected successful challenge from Paseur). While there was apparently no endorsement by Riley for Shaw like there was for Parker, I am told that Riley did record robocalls on Shaw’s behalf. And that he did robocalls for Reed Ingram’s successful campaign for the Montgomery County Commission.
- Artur Davis’ Gubernatorial Hopes – Davis has been running a “pre-primary race” to convince Alabamians he can win if and when he gets into the actual race. His “pre-primary race” got a little harder after Obama’s winning campaign did worse in Alabama (39%, 13 points less than his national average) than Kerry’s losing campaign did in 2004 (38% and 10 points behind his national average).
- State GOP Chair Mike Hubbard – On the bad night list not because of the party’s performance but because the two high-profile Congressional losses means he faces more saber-rattling from the already existing anti-Hubbard faction of the GOP. A signature win under his leadership would go a long way.
- The James Gang – Father Fob and Son Tim were hoping to ride anti-Amendment One momentum to the starting line of the GOP gubernatorial primary. But instead Amendment One passed and the grassroots conservative energy didn’t develop, perhaps showing a waning of the anti-establishment GOP wing’s salad days of Roy Moore / Tom Parker / and the ‘03 Riley tax package.
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You really have to wonder about Mike Hubbard and the job he’s doing. Next door in Tennessee the GOP expanded their senate majority by 3 seats and they won the State House for the first time since the Civil War. In Mississippi the GOP knocked out two liberal Supreme Court Justices and former Governor Musgrove in that US Senate race. In Lousianna the GOP won back that Congressional seat they lost back in the summer. Here in the north Alabama area the GOP did well in Marshall County and they knocked out the longtime revenue commissioner in Cullman County but that was about it. Thats nothing though compared to what the GOP did in neighboring states. I just dont get the love affair with Hubbard. He blew that House seat in Cullman earlier this year and his candidate for PSC loses to Lucy. I dont mean it in a personal way toward Lucy but I saw her on TV yesterday and the woman looked like she was knocking on death’s door. How could you lose to her and a US House seat that you had held for nearly fifty years? I dont get it.
Roy, no difference. I agree with you. I’m on record in here for being against “straight-ticket” voting. It is a quick vote for the lazy and uninformed. There is no value for representative democracy by voting straight-ticket anything.
As for being in tune with the rest of the nation, you honestly consider that a GOOD thing???
Pray tell, what Democrat-controlled urban city or county is your model for public safety, education excellence and prosperity?
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#39
There was some disparity in the Republican voting in District 2, but HAS’s endorsement for Bright did nothing. She’s been a dead horse here since before the primaries. Jay Love most definately carried the Wiregrass regardless of the percentage disparity between this race and McCain’s vote.
Cities like Montgomery and Birmingham vote party. People of the Wiregrass will vote for friends and neighbors. Bobby Bright has a hosts of brothers, sisters, nieces, and nephews that make up the population here. The Republican swing voters for Bright was due to friends and family of Bright in the Wiregrass. It had zero to do with HAS. If she’d had any influence, Bright would have carried Geneva County. She barely carried her home in the early primaries.
Dan T. You are ignorant. Did you miss the news that the ALGOP won 6 of 7 statewide races including the only State Supreme Court race? Crawl out from under your rock and read the news. Let others know too – its missing info from this blog.
Keep on spinning #55. It’s all you can do after ther losses. Couldn’t hurt.
Just read an article on a left-leaning blog that disputes Pecan Jim’s assertion that it is Republicans who are racist.
The voter tallies show lower presidential votes for Obama than Kerry in Democrat precincts in Alabama, and higher vote tallies for state Democrat candidates (like Bobby Bright and Parker Griffith) which follows that the percentage was significant enough to devote to racism among Democrats against Obama but not other state candidates (did not look at Figures so didn’t crosstab that).
So it is true that claims of Republican racism are not only false but hypocritical if coming from a liberal. The stats actually point out that the racists were far more likely to be white Democrats.
I wrote the blog you just mentioned, and you mischaracterized my point. I was not arguing that white Democrats are more likely than Republicans to be racist; I was arguing that latent racism among white Democrats in this election was a much more potent force than I expected.
Many white Republicans are not racists and joined that party because they support fiscal and social conservatism, but many others switched from the Dems to the GOP primarily because of the Democratic party’s embrace of civil rights and African-Americans. The effect of that on Alabama’s electoral tally has been obvious since the Sixties. I was focused on those who have been more than willing to vote for a socially progressive white candidate (John Kerry) but not a socially progressive black candidate (Barack Obama).
Mike Hubbard is doing a good job.
Hubbard is doing a fantastic job. There are several known detractors that are attempting to start trouble because they have too much time on their hands, y’all know who it is, so it’s not like they are doing a good job of keeping it “secret.” It is also obvious that they are passing along bogus info to danny here, especially when you actually look at the numbers in cd2 vs previous years and how republicans performed. The ALGOP and the Love Campaign did a damn good job with turnout, they got beat by obama in Montgomery. It’s not that hard people, but most of you have your blinders on, which is fine, but you are wrong.
oh, and Harri Anne Smith “kingmaker?” That is the most assinine thing i have ever heard in my entire life. Someone post the video clip of her giving the CC speech, then tell me how credible she is, please people. Danny, I respect what you are doing here, and the fact that you do it for free, but good lord that is the dumbest thing i’ve ever heard, kingmaker, geez. I feel like the miller high life guy who sees the idiots cooking ostrich burger with the high life…that’s not a burger, that’s a bird. Harri Anne’s a bird.
Dylan, you are just “Blowing in the Wind”
Turnham helped Folsom, Baxley, (who should have lost, I think the crappy add that Tinkle ran with the stroke picture cost her that race)(probably a brain fart from Swatty and Assbell), Griffith, and by the way, Bright, (have you heard that name lately) in a seat that had been held by R’s for over 40 years………
You lost a seat in Cullman County that EVERYBODY knows you should have won. All you guys just knew you had Bright beat but, your terrible way of dealing with people, your negative treatment of your own primary folks, and the just plain old hypocrtical atitude displayed by “your” man Hubbard cost your ass. Sorry Charlie…… you lose……..
Lessee… lots to catch up on here…
Anonymous in #13, those are good points you make. I believe that the Birmingham News article today (Thursday) is evidence that as more people start paying attention to the 2010 Governor’s race, more people are going to want to know why Obama’s #’s are not a good yardstick to use in considering Davis’s candidacy. I think Davis can make that case, but a stronger showing in Alabama by Obama would very much have helped Davis.
Anonymous in #15, your tangent is welcome. If it is not meant to be a tangent and is meant to be on point, let me point out that I did not say Smith had a good year, I said she had a good night.
Anonymous in #19, your point is taken. I’ll adjust the post. And thanks for the link to the Federated Electrical Contractors website. :)
Dylan in #60, what “bogus info” do you think has been “passed along” here? I would be glad to know what specifically you think is bogus. Thanks!
Dylan in #61, success has many fathers. Some will assign Smith some credit, others won’t. I know that I heard some GOPers assigning her some blame for the loss. Clearly, she wanted to have an impact on the election. If you want to say she had no effect on the race, I won’t argue that; it is somewhat beside the point about whether the Bright win was good for her.
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I do appreciate it when we can be civil.
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I was hoping that after the election the civility would come easier.
Danny – don’t you find it rather interesting that people are calling your info “bogus” even when it is based on published sources, but provide no sources of their own to contradict your posts. They tell you “we know – take our word for it.” I think I tend to believe published infornation more.
#60 and all of you people assigning blame should look to Bright’s team of consultants. He had beautiful positive ads, the best pollster in the country, and an unbelievably smart and capable campaign manager. I volunteered for the campaign and was always struck by how cordial and upbeat the staff was – they all worked together to make history!
Everyone wants to blame someone for losing the race for Jay Love, but we should all look to the people who won it for Bobby Bright!
again, 68, the only people that won it for bright were the African-Americans voting in montgomery to make history for Obama. Bright’s win is circumstantial.
Harri Anne Smith is done…period.
Bob Dylan don’t hate – celebrate
yes we can. I do love how Obama now says that the “change” will be a little slower than promised, like probably won’t happen until his “fifth” year. Thank goodness for term limits.
Just wondering what you good folks think the gop needs to do to get back on track???