Posted by Swing State Project moves the AL-02 race (with Republican Jay Love and Democrat Bobby Bright) from “Tossup” to “Lean Republican.”
CQPolitics moves the AL-03 race (Democrat Josh Segall and Republican incumbent Mike Rogers) from “Safe Republican” to “Republican Favored.”
A couple of notes related to the AL-02 race following up on this post from last week…
I pointed out that the Bobby Bright campaign reported only $66,000 cash on hand (and $74,000 in debt) in its last financial disclosure report. While the numbers don’t look robust, a Bright campaign staffer told the Parlor that Bright had already paid for all his media buys until election day, he wasn’t going off the air at all, and that they felt their position was strong.
I also mentioned that the Jay Love campaign, along with over $300,000 cash on hand, also had $822,000 in campaign debt. A Love campaign staffer made the point that Love’s debt is only to himself and would be better characterized as “a self loan.” Love may or may not recoup the loan, but it does not represent payments that must be made to vendors.
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Danny – I found it interesting that Swing State also looked at the raw “cash on hand” numbers to move this race to “lean Republican.” I think Bright will have plenty of money and their analysis looks to be made without digging adequately for facts. In short, they didn’t do much research.
Jay may win this one but the analysis cited is highly faulty.
Holy crap! I just saw the endorsement for Bright from Harri Anne Smith. I don’t know how this plays, but Boss Mike Hubbard has caused an undeniable rift ion the state GOP. Favoritism in the primary is something a party chair cannot afford. Will this hurt Jay? We’ll see. If Smith comes out swinging at Jay it will probably hurt him. In any event the GOP is fighting itself and that goes to the bullying “leadership” of Little Mike Hubbard.
I just heard that Senator Smith endorsed Bobby Bright.
http://www.dothaneagle.com/dea/news/local/article/harri_anne_smith_backing_bobby_bright/41926/
Not sure how it will play, but here is the story of the endorsement
This endorsement grew out of Mike Hubbard hand-picking candidates. No question. And there may be another disgruntled GOP candidate from the primaries whose opponent recived active aid from Mike Hubbard and the party who may endorse the Democrat nominee. Stay tuned.
This will not move many votes. Harri Anne Smith lost a lot of respect in her Senate district during the primary. Because of that, there are 3 businessmen from Dothan lined up to run for her seat. She is done in politics and she knows it. I doubt she has the courage or desire to run for re election. Nothing like going out with a whimper Harri.
Regarding COH and debt reporting. According to the FEC, any obligation exceeding $500.00 that has not been paid by the reporting cut-off must be reported as a debt/obligation. That would mean that Love paid all his bills, including any he might have received in late September by 30 Sep, while Bright may be sitting on bills until their due date. I really doubt Bright has a cash flow problem, especially if he has purchased TV time through 4 Nov. All he’d have to worry about is payroll and facility expenses.
Regarding HAS – that was a pretty gutsy move. Very courageous, and very dangerous. If the state party goes after her, they will probably do more damage to their reputation than good. Time to get rid of Hubbard and his cronies.
I don’t know the full impact of this but Love has to be concerned. The GOP mayor of Dothan and the GOP state senator for a large portion of the district have now BOTH endorsed his opponent. That is unprecedented in this district and I would guess nothing remotely like this has happened in Alabama since 1964.
Look at it this way: Dothan is the largest city in this district with a Republican mayor – and he endorsed Bright,. Smith is the lone GOP state senator whose district is entirely in this congressional district – and she endorsed Bright.
So you could say that the highest ranking Republican municipal official in the district and the highest ranking Republican official in state government in the district BOTH endorsed Bright over Love. Impressive by any standard.
Anon6 – I have to disagree. HAS is highly respected in the wiregrass. She is also “the most conservative voting” Senator in Alabama, and may have earned more respect from the independent voters than you think. As for 3 businessmen lined up to run against her – so what, running is one thing, winning is another.
HAS’s endorsement alone should put this race back into toss up category.
#8, you do not know what you are talking about! The Mayor’s position in the City of Dothan is a non-partisian position. He is not a Republican!
Furthermore, Harri Anne is a Democrat at heart. She only ran as a Republican in 1998, after it was clear that she could only run in the Wiregrass and win under the party label of the GOP. She was the chairman of the Democratic party in Geneva County for several years in the 1980’s and 1990’s. Check the record!
Both Thomas and Smith have sealed their fate as far as EVER being elected to any political office in the future!
LD, the Mayor of Dothan is a past member of the state Republican Executive Committee and has something to do with McCain’s presidential campaign in Alabama as previously reported elsewhere. He’s as Republican as it gets. But as some point you and the rest of the party hacks will have to distinguish between Republican and blind follower Republican.
Nice spin attempt though. It’s about all you can do at this point.
I keep seeing this great commercial using a lot of Montgomerians talking about what Bright has done for the city! What a great ad – I am glad to hear Bright has the money to keep running those!
Dothan’s mayor has announced he will not seek another term. He knew he couldn’t get elected again. He’s the least popular mayor that I can remember in the history of this city. His endorsement of Bright did nothing to hurt Love. Harianne did poorly in the early primaries because of her questionable actions and associations. It had nothing to do with Jay Love. She can blame all she wants, but the people of this district know why they are NOT behind her. She did nothing but make a fool of herself. She didn’t help Bright. Plus, Mayor Thomas’s lame duck endorsement is laughable.
#14 you hit it right on the head! Good job!
The endorsements are important. Can’t spin that away. If Bright gets one of every 4 or 5 GOP votes he wins. So anyone crossing the ailse is big, and he’s gotten two ranking officials. Spin like a dervish, that’s big.
five dollar five dollar foooooooooooooooooootlong
#16 Endorsements don’t always bring votes in. In the case of HAS, she’s taken votes away from Bright. I for one have changed my mind. I voted against HAS the first time as many, many residents of Houston County did. That won’t change now. When the anti-HAS people vote, and there’s plenty of them, it will hurt Bright in Dothan.
As for Thomas, he couldn’t pull one out of a 1,000 votes for anyone. He railroaded in a tax increase on the citizens of Dothan, and buddy, that won’t be forgotten either. HAS and Mayor Thomas have a lot in common.(Citizens not getting to vote on important issues….gambling, higher taxes). Wait and see. Both of these endorsements will ultimately hurt Bright, or at least in Dothan it will.
Endorsements really mean a lot when you buy them, huh?
Votes are important and so are endorsements by two of the top leaders from this district! Jay Love should consider himself done in this race as it shall come to pass on Nov. 4. It just goes to prove that you can’t do wrong and get by. You know yourself that you and your cronies have run one of the dirtiest campaigns ever against your own GOP team members and Bright. Big gamblimg money can’t buy votes when 02 voters can see right through that smoke screen you have put up.
neither of these two endorsements are from “top leaders” in the district, i assure you that o2 voter. most in the district are ashamed every time smith opens her mouth, and the mayor is surely not a factor. bright is trying to leverage them but what he doesn’t realize, or maybe he does but just likes to have folks talking about him, is that these two yahoos do more harm than they do good. but he’ll figure that out for sure on nov. 5th
How much did Gilley’s endorsement and George Jones’ ridiculous radio endorsements help HAS? She lost the votes and respect of Houston County with that monkey show. No endorsements could have saved her then, nor in the future. Her political career was sealed the day she took the vote away from Houston County. So, dream on if you think her endorsement will ever count again. Endorsements only matter when they come from someone credible.
Love will lose this one. If anyone saw the debate last night, Love was a generic republican. He represents us republicans poorly! He cant think independently! He did a poor job. I actually expected a little more because people are saying this will be a tight race. By comparison of the two last night at the debate, this race should not be close.
McCain/Palin–Sessions–Bright in 2008