Posted by Update: In the original post, the potential candidate who finished third among Democrats in this polling was misidentified as Ron Sparks when in fact the identity of that potential candidate has not been confirmed. It may be Seth Hammett. The post has been edited appropriately.
Numbers on the 2010 Governor’s race come courtesy of a circulating poll from Capital Survey Research (AEA’s polling arm). The poll was taken Sept. 10-11, 15, 18, and 22-23. The margin of error overall is 3.4% with 830 persons polled. On the questions related to the Democratic primary that were asked of those who said they plan to vote in the Democratic primary, the margin of error is 5.6% with 336 respondents.
In polling on the Democratic primary, the top two finishers were Artur Davis and Jim Folsom. All numbers are percentages rounded to the nearest whole number.
| Total | B | W | M | F | North | Mid | South | 22-34 | 35-45 | 46-55 | 56-65 | 65+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis | 35 | 47 | 18 | 33 | 36 | 40 | 38 | 16 | 33 | 28 | 38 | 31 | 38 |
| Folsom | 22 | 11 | 36 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 17 | 15 | 27 | 14 | 21 | 28 |
| Candidate #3 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 9 |
It is worth noting that former Mobile Mayor Mike Dow polled at 28% in the South but didn’t register much elsewhere.
Other breakdowns:
| Rural Area |
Small Rural Community |
Small City |
Medium City |
Large City |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis | 28 | 22 | 27 | 31 | 56 |
| Folsom | 25 | 30 | 29 | 23 | 8 |
| Candidate #3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 7 |
And…
| <$25k | $25k - $50k |
$50k - $75k |
$75k - $100k |
$100k+ | Davis | 28 | 35 | 43 | 49 | 31 | Folsom | 27 | 22 | 12 | 20 | 24 | Candidate #3 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 12 |
|---|
A consideration here is that the primary sample here was 56.8% black, whereas a 50-50 split might be more reasonable. An Alabama political strategist told me that a 50-50 black-white split would be close to the breakdown in the state’s Democratic presidential primary this year. Davis’ 13-point lead over Folsom would begin to look like a 8 or 9 point lead if you figure on a 50-50 split.
How did Davis match up head-to-head against potential Republican candidates? For whatever it’s worth, this poll was begun less than a week after the conclusion of the GOP National Convention when Republican stock was peaking this fall.
| Artur Davis | 45 |
|---|---|
| Tim James | 30 |
| Artur Davis | 45 |
| Jack Hawkins | 31 |
| Artur Davis | 44 |
| Bradley Byrne | 32 |
| Artur Davis | 43 |
| Mike Hubbard | 33 |
| Artur Davis | 44 |
| Troy King | 37 |
| Artur Davis | 43 |
| Kay Ivey | 37 |
Even if these numbers are overly generous in Davis’ favor, you could factor in a lot of give and still have him look competitive at this point. Davis has previously said that he will announce his intentions for 2010 in the first part of next year. Anyone placing bets on the nature of that announcement?
Related Articles:
Legislative Dispatch
Purple Dot Connection
2010 Big List
2010 Senate Elections
2010 House Elections
Press Releases
So is this telling us that Kay Ivey has the best chance to beat Artur? Looks like it to me.
Ivey seems to be emerging as the GOP front runner. When she spoke to my Rotary Club, she got a standing ovation. She speaks with passion and with money in her campaign account, she’ll be very competitive.
This is like the website for all Dem polling, spinning and anything AEA.
Hey look, Will Sellers, wife and family are already posting!
Hey Anonymous in #3, an AEA poll on the 2010 Governor’s race is political news to most of our readers no matter how you slice it. I guess that last story on the Supreme Court race was way too pro-Democratic for you, too.
LOL.
FWIW, I pass along as much Alabama political info as I can, including polls from all sources that I can get my hands on. If you know of a story, e.g. some angle or some poll, that should be highlighted here, I’m glad to hear of it.
As a Republican I hope Davis is the dem nominee.
I’ve just gotta say, I am shocked by these poll numbers. I would have thought Folsom would be several points ahead of Davis. I still think if both of them run, Folsom has a better chance of winning. Davis has just been in the news a lot lately and he’s been talking about running for a year. Once Folsom jumps in the ring and becomes active, his polling numbers should go up. I also think that if both Davis and Folsom run, which I believe they probably both will, the field will remain small. Sparks won’t jump into the middle of that fight. He’ll go for Lt. Gov.
I think that 56% black is way to high.
These polls are always interesting and fun to talk about but they are pretty meaningless this far out and no one really knows the impact of the national races on Alabama yet. For what it is worth though, count me among the crowd that did not think Artur Davis was serious about running until I had the opportunity to join him at a town hall on the presidential campaign the other night. He is definitely not someone to under estimate. Smart, articulate and makes a good presentation. I couldn’t vote for him because of his stance on the issues but he is an impressive candidate on the trail.
What are Barkley’s nubmers?
56% black – even in the dem primary as opposed to the general election – is too high.
How anyone can look at this and come up with “Kay Ivey is the frontrunner” is insane. Absolutey insane.
Kay is a nice lady, but she has zero chance. Nada. None.
What was the sample used for the Demo vs. GOP Danny? They didn’t just ask the same likely Demo voters did they?
This really doesn’t tell much. What would be interesting is a head to head between Folsom and Davis. Let’s face it – most of Sparks numbers would roll to Folsom in that matchup, and it is widely assumed that Sparks and Folsom will not match up against each other in a primary. A laundry list poll really doesn’t show much – except that Davis gets about a third. It doesn’t even show how many other candidates were listed beyond the top 3 – but count on it, if Folsom and Davis run, there won’t be many others, if any.
I am a democrat but never in my life will I support Artur Davis — well, maybe if he was running against Karl Rove! Anyways, Sparks and Folsom have already proven themselves statewide. Davis just needs to stay in DC. If he gets the nomination I hope he loses and never serves another in Alabama politics! Now about Folsom or Sparks they will play the waiting game. Davis is going to announce either Jan or Feb 2009.
And I’ll bet my support for the Alabama Democratic Party!
fine print: this poll conducted in dallas and perry counties only.
surely not. for real?
I stand corrected. Tim James is the front runner. My mistake. I thought 37% was greater than 30% but that is what going to public schools teaches you. How is Tim’s campaign against the rainy day fund coming?
Lyn, Kay Ivey has been in statewide office for 8 years and Tim James is an outsider. James will blow past her in the first month. James has money – tens of millions of dolllars of it – and Kay cannot raise it. That is just a fact. And a few million – which is as much as Kay will be able to raise- is nowhere near enough. Riley spent $15 million in 2002. Kay can’t match that.
She just isn’t a serious contender. Period. The big dogs in Montgomery do not take her seriously. Ask around.
Danny, can you post a link to the actual results of the poll?
Danny – I want to second post 21. Who exactly was polled for the GOP vs. Davis results? The fact that weak candidates like Troy King (recent sex scandal) and Kay Ivey (21% of Alabama voters unwilling to support a female for governor accoring to recent polling) do best against Artur suggests that the poll may have been done only among likely Demo voters.
It makes sense to me though (on the GOP matchup). Those are the Republicans that have run statewide and hold statewide elected office. But . . . that will change quick. Kay Ivey would be a dream for Dems. This will be an uphill battle for Artur in the general, but if he gets to run against Kay Ivey, he will win this thing.
After all of the ads Jack Hawkins ran, you’d think he’d poll better than that. Ditto for Tim James.He anouced a run for Governor early this year, hired a load of consultants and rented office space. I’d think his numbers would be stronger too.other than campaigning what else has Tim been doing since May?
James hasn’t been on TV a time politically. But when actual campaigning starts he will be. A lot. His numbers will move fast.
As for Hawkins, he has ads but they aren’t blatantly political. If and when he does those we’ll see how he does. I think he is stronger than Ivey or King – easily.
Jame and Hawkins are lining up the backing to win. REAL backing as in financial and heavy hitters.
Hey! Amigos! This is top secret, on the QT. Wink, Wink!
Don’t a tell nobody! Super Secret!
Kay Ivey scares me! She would paddle the butts of the Senators if she was Lt. Governor. They fear her! She looks like the teacher that hit me with a ruler long ago!
Sincerely,
A friend
hey #15 – you are a Democrat and you won’t support Davis
Why because you are a racist?
I bet you won’t for Obama either because you are a terrorist or because he’s muslim.
Ignorant fother mucker
#20 – glad to know the Governor’s office is for sale. I guess the dumb citizens of Alabama will vote for the guy with the most money. I’m glad to know this in advance. It will make voting so much easier. Thanks for the heads up.
Lyn – the biggest spender for governor has won (at the very least)the last three elections. Maybe more.
So – almost always – the guy with the most money DOES win.
If you can’t raise over $10 million you can’t compete. Troy and Kay will not be able to raise that. James, Hawkins, Folsom, etc. can and will be the players.
Davis is philosophically a nemesis of mine but I have to agree with Cam Ward, he’s got a bright future in politics and will be a formidable candidate.
Please no Troy, Kay or Folsom. Let’s get someone amazing GOP. That Beason guy from Fultondale (or is it Gardendale?) Now that’s a guy with some gusto.
How many Republican crossover votes would Artur get?
I’m guessing LOTS.
Oh, and Mike Rogers wears a really bad wig.
In response to comments 20 and 21…
The overall polling sample (e.g., in the Democrat vs. Republican questions) was 830 voters statewide. The results for the Democratic primary were based on a subsample of 336 voters who responded that they plan to vote in the Democratic primary.
I don’t know of any online link to the poll results.
I hope that helps!
I am surprised by the general election numbers, but not the primary. On the Dem side, Davis is a compelling speaker who constantly moves around the state and who acquits himself well on television. Folsom has yesterday written all over him and must be damaged by the legislature’s poor performance.
I don’t buy the observation that a one on one Davis v. Folsom would look dramatically different from these numbers. Sparks’ numbers are too weak to advertise any trend, and Davis polls second with white voters now. These numbers make it look like Davis shows well with more affluent white voters. No surprise there.
I think the general numbers are interesting. If I recall AEA’s numbers on the presidential race during the time frame of this polls, McCain was leading 55-35. That undercuts the jabs that this poll is weighted toward Dems.
I think these numbers pretty much answer the question why Davis thinks he has a shot.
Strongest Republican will be Ivey or Hawkins. I’ll bet Davis would prefer Ivey, who won’t excite the business community.
To #11, if you crunch Danny’s cross-tabs, and do the math on a 50-50 black white split, Davis leads Folsom by by nine.
It is entirely premature for anyone to be making predictions about the election, nonetheless on who can raise the money. Obviously, millionare Tim James will have plenty of money to finance his campaign. But to dismiss others’ financial abilities two years out is lunacy at its finest.
This poll shows that Kay Ivey is best-positioned at this point among the Republican candidates in a general election match-up with Artur Davis. HOWEVER, we are way too far off from the election to even begin to prognosticate. My only prediction at this point is that one of the nine potential candidates listed above will be our next Governor.
To #29, wonder where Davis fits on the money scale. Would President Obama’s national money team help Davis in a primary? Doesn’t Davis also inherit some GOP money if a pro-business guy like Bradley Byrne can’t make it out of the primary? Does Davis need as much money as Folsom in a primary if he nails 80% of the black vote?
just asking..
We might has well take a poll on who will win the Auburn-Alabama in 2010 and handicap the quarterbacks. This poll is Artur Davis spin doctors trying to make the case for his candidacy. Davis can win the Democratic nomination but will lose to a republican. Where is the entire poll?
This poll is the same as teh Bright poll, a beg for money. Davis will declare after an OBAMA victory but before inaug. leaving time for the Messiah to dump large sums from his campaign into Artur’s. He just needs to convince Dems he has a prayer.
Agreed, any 2010 poll is premature. But #37 and #38 may have missed that this is not a poll Davis commissioned,it is an AEA poll. AEA is not a notably pro-Davis outfit. In fact, Drs. Reed and Hubbert have told anybody who will listen that Folsom is their guy and they don’t think Davis can win.
No doubt, Davis operatives are pushing these numbers around, but they didn’t run the poll.
I heard a pretty smart guy say the other day that if Obama can’t win Alabama, that it is obvious Davis never could. Has anybody else noticed that the other southern state where Obama is twenty points behind is Tennessee? Interesting, because Harold Ford just got 49% of the vote in Tennessee. I suppose Artur hopes that a chunk of whites who won’t vote for Obama might vote for a home grown boy.
No question, Obama can’t be a hated figure in Alabama in 2010. If he is, Davis is toast. But if Obama is decently popular and the economy is turning around, I think Davis has a very decent shot.
A good GOP source says Jack Hawkins is not running and that Bradley Byrne is running. Same source says Richard Shelby is thinking about retiring.
I have heard the same, that Hawkins well not run.
James will take off fast when the actual campaign begins. He has been lining up the support. Ivey simply will not move in numbers. She can’t raise the money and all of the power players are ignoring her. She will go no higher than she is right now in the polls, and that means death. And Troy King fits the same template as Kay.
Tim James will get at most 10% in a GOP primary. He can spend millions, but it won’t matter. He can hire all of Ernie Fletcher’s political team and give Fred Davis an unlimited budget. I still won’t matter. He has high negatives, his father is out of favor and he made the mistake of attacking Bob Riley (the most popular governor ever). Tim should have run for Congress. He would have won hands down. A Governor he will never be.
James will be a force. Count on it.
If Shelby retires, Davis and Folsom really need to work out a deal for one to run for the Senate and the other for Governor because either would be a strong candidate in either race. It would be stupid for them to run against each other in a primary and then run a non-credible candidate in a very winnable Senate race. Sparks will, I imagine run for LG. If not, he should take on Aderholt in AL 4.
I agree with SanfordDem…although I would add I think Davis and Folsom of them could be formidable candidates against Shelby even if he’s not retiring. If they start early enough and are able to raise the funds to put out their message, Dems could take over this seat.
Sparks would be a great opponent to take on Aderholt. It would create a great East vs. West battle. Sparks would have the advantage will the heavier populated East (Gasden, Fort Payne, Guntersville, Arab, Boaz….) However, he wants to go statewide, in my opinion.
The CSRC did not release the data in this report and the data are inaccurate as presented.
Gerald W. Johnson
Director, CSRC
Dr. Johnson,
I am aware that the CSRC did not release the data, but we are both aware that pieces of the report are circulating. I will check the data again to see what quibble anyone could have with the info presented here, but enough regular readers have seen the results and seen this presentation of them that I am confident we would have been alerted to substantive errors.
I welcome any clarification that you would like to offer.
Thank you.
Danny