Posted by Update: In the original post, the potential candidate who finished third among Democrats in this polling was misidentified as Ron Sparks when in fact the identity of that potential candidate has not been confirmed. It may be Seth Hammett. The post has been edited appropriately.
Numbers on the 2010 Governor’s race come courtesy of a circulating poll from Capital Survey Research (AEA’s polling arm). The poll was taken Sept. 10-11, 15, 18, and 22-23. The margin of error overall is 3.4% with 830 persons polled. On the questions related to the Democratic primary that were asked of those who said they plan to vote in the Democratic primary, the margin of error is 5.6% with 336 respondents.
In polling on the Democratic primary, the top two finishers were Artur Davis and Jim Folsom. All numbers are percentages rounded to the nearest whole number.
| Total | B | W | M | F | North | Mid | South | 22-34 | 35-45 | 46-55 | 56-65 | 65+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis | 35 | 47 | 18 | 33 | 36 | 40 | 38 | 16 | 33 | 28 | 38 | 31 | 38 |
| Folsom | 22 | 11 | 36 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 21 | 17 | 15 | 27 | 14 | 21 | 28 |
| Candidate #3 | 8 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 9 |
It is worth noting that former Mobile Mayor Mike Dow polled at 28% in the South but didn’t register much elsewhere.
Other breakdowns:
| Rural Area |
Small Rural Community |
Small City |
Medium City |
Large City |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis | 28 | 22 | 27 | 31 | 56 |
| Folsom | 25 | 30 | 29 | 23 | 8 |
| Candidate #3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 7 |
And…
| <$25k | $25k - $50k |
$50k - $75k |
$75k - $100k |
$100k+ | Davis | 28 | 35 | 43 | 49 | 31 | Folsom | 27 | 22 | 12 | 20 | 24 | Candidate #3 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 6 | 12 |
|---|
A consideration here is that the primary sample here was 56.8% black, whereas a 50-50 split might be more reasonable. An Alabama political strategist told me that a 50-50 black-white split would be close to the breakdown in the state’s Democratic presidential primary this year. Davis’ 13-point lead over Folsom would begin to look like a 8 or 9 point lead if you figure on a 50-50 split.
How did Davis match up head-to-head against potential Republican candidates? For whatever it’s worth, this poll was begun less than a week after the conclusion of the GOP National Convention when Republican stock was peaking this fall.
| Artur Davis | 45 |
|---|---|
| Tim James | 30 |
| Artur Davis | 45 |
| Jack Hawkins | 31 |
| Artur Davis | 44 |
| Bradley Byrne | 32 |
| Artur Davis | 43 |
| Mike Hubbard | 33 |
| Artur Davis | 44 |
| Troy King | 37 |
| Artur Davis | 43 |
| Kay Ivey | 37 |
Even if these numbers are overly generous in Davis’ favor, you could factor in a lot of give and still have him look competitive at this point. Davis has previously said that he will announce his intentions for 2010 in the first part of next year. Anyone placing bets on the nature of that announcement?
Related Articles:
Legislative Dispatch
Purple Dot Connection
2010 Big List
2010 Senate Elections
2010 House Elections
Press Releases
Rumor in Montgomery is that Davis’ people altered the poll to put Davis in the most favorable light. Davis called Folsom and Sparks this morning and apologized.
This is about the 3rd time Davis and/or his cronies have done this. They’ve released portions of other polls in an attempt to make him the inevitable Democrat nominee. Davis needs to come clean and answer how he is allowed to use his resources as a congressman to start running for Governor 2 years out.
#51 is way off base–here’s the deal on the AEA info, as sources from AEA, Davis and Sparks are telling it. What is inaccurate about the data Danny posted is that Sparks is actually not the third guy listed, its apparently Seth Hammett or David Bronner, more likely Hammett. Sparks actually ran even worse.
The Davis numbers are accurate in both the primary and general and the AEA folks know it. Apparently, AEA has been under pressure to sit on these numbers to avoid puffing Davis who is not Hubbert’s guy.
Dr. Johnson shouldn’t have hung out Davis on comment 49 when he knows better. Danny was right to stand by his post.
Davis is rattling the Dem insiders in Montgomery. I doubt these numbers hold once the heat of a campaign starts but its sleaze to suggest that Davis cooked numbers when whoever posted #51 probably knows better.
Great,looks like Folsom v. Davis is going to be two nasty years. How depressing. Both are good Democrats and deserve better.
By the way, notice how guarded Dr. Johnson’s comment is in comment 49. Doesn’t exactly sound like a full scale rebuttal.
Comment #53 is essentially correct. As noted in the post above, I have edited the text to show that the identity of the 3rd Democrat has not been confirmed.
Alls I know is that Ron Sparks and Davis had a very intense discussion on Friday and Sparks wasn’t happy at all.
Sparks scores very favorable on the statewide poll. Higher higher positives than Davis, but Folsom beats everyone on name ID.
It is also my understanding that the six Republican matchups are just guesses. Artur’s people know who the 6 R’s were, but not which of the 6 each matchup is.
#57 is wrong again. Talked to Davis and Sparks people who were with both all weekend and say they absolutely did not speak. Sparks was upset with Doc Johnson because he initially thought that the “mistake” was that the poll had him running better. Actually, it had him running worse.
#59 is just as bad. Davis’ people say Johnson gave him the data on the Rs. Waitand see if Dr. Johnson ever issues any correction on the R numbers.
Interesting that even the Davis detractors here don’t dispute that he leads the Rs.
Regarding comment #59 and the names of the Republicans in the head-to-head matchups above, there was no guesswork involved.
#27, actually I’m not a racist and I am support the Obama/Biden ticket. However, race is what makes Davis a loser candidate statewide, this is Alabama. Even if the race issue is tossed aside what does Davis have other than a Harvard Law Degree? Nothing. His upcoming marriage is politically motivated and can you name one good thing he has done for the black belt. Fact is, Davis is a great DC politician but not a good AL politician he just needs to stay in DC.
artur davis will sink like a stone we did not vote for the black muslim for pres. and davis is one of his class mates boy isnt that a big qualification for gov . he will get the afro vote but the good ole boys will tirn out to let him know where he stands in the cauc. community . like artur kaye ivey will fail and fail in a bigger way she is a loose cannon with a short fuse and there is no contract with the voters she can rely on . i hope obomoid comes to al and campaigns for artur say good nite the fat lady will sing and it will be loud and clear listen kaye and artur they must not know how to spell arthur must be muslim or ebonics . tim james will be our next gov he is a good man successful smart and millions of dollars are hard to stop. we got bob riley and strange luthr almost paid enough to buy it ,you just cant compete without the cash you all know i speak the truth think about it look within listen to that little voice it will tell you earl is dead right.
I hope this poll is correct. Davis is my candidate!