AL-02: Large Love Lead in Latest Poll

Man at a GraphA poll conducted for RollCall shows GOP candidate Jay Love a strong 17 points ahead of Democrat Bobby Bright in the AL-02 race.

A SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for Roll Call found state Rep. Jay Love (R) ahead of Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright (D), 56 percent to 39 percent, in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Terry Everett (R).

Unquestionably this is a good showing for Love in an independent poll of the district. If Bright fans are looking for a silver lining, one is that this poll only had 16% of its survey sample as African-Americans while the recent polls from Anzalone-List and Capital Survey Research used figures closer to 29%, the percentage of African-Americans in the district.

Another consideration that Bright fans will latch onto is that automated polls like SurveyUSA uses have pluses (they’re cheaper) and minuses (they don’t screen who answers the phone… anyone who answers can respond, e.g., non-registered voter, child, etc.). These kind of considerations lead Chuck Todd, NBC News Political Director, to observe that SurveyUSA will “show incredible fluctuations in their results.” He adds,

One day, a candidate will have a massive lead and two weeks later, their numbers will change for no apparent reasons. They churn out the most numbers and have too much influence. If campaigns thought the IVR [interactive voice response] way of polling was the way to go, they’d already be there; because it’s VERY cheap; but the fact is the polling I trust the most is from pollsters who get paid to get it right, not to get a result.

On the issue of “incredible fluctuations,” the Bright crowd will question what could have happened to swing the vote so dramatically in Love’s favor since other polls (from Love’s campaign, Capital Survey Research (AEA), and Anzalone-Liszt) showed the race differently.

Regardless, the Bright people would crow mightily if the result was in their favor on this poll, and the Love crowd will justifiably promote these results by an independent interest.

The results as published from SurveyUSA are here.

27 comments to AL-02: Large Love Lead in Latest Poll

  • Anonymous

    Well I’ll be! Love speaks at Republican Convention, Roll Call shows him up. I bet he can go ahead and declare victory!

  • Blue Dog

    Bogus poll. Even Love’s own poll showed it a dead heat. This outfit clearly doesn’t know what they’re doing.

  • LD

    I still say it will be Love 60% — Bright 40% by election day!!!

  • Anonymous

    Roll Call is not partisan and they have been the voice on capitol hill, on both sides of the aisle, since 1955. It means something.

  • Anonymous

    Push button polls have proven to lead people down the wrong path. I am speaking as someone that does not have a “dog in the fight”, but also speaking as someone in the polling industry that has seen push button polls evolve in the recent years. Both camps need to take this news very lightly. I personally have seen internet polls come out better than some of these push button polls. I think we all know this race is a lot closer than this poll shows.

  • Susan Fillippeli

    African Americans are undersampled in this poll. District demographics show a 29% African American population, which is probably why Anzelone sampled at that level. We play for different teams, but I have a great deal of respect for John Anzelone as a pollster.

  • common sense

    population is not the best number to look at. To see if blacks are under represented one must look at # of likely voters from each demographic. In this category, noting the unknown effect that Obama might have, the AEA poll is probably more accurate.

  • Anonymous

    the poll shows that bright will only win if there is a high turn out of minorities.

  • Pecan Jim

    If you look at the Huntsville story on voter registration exploding and reflect on the fact that Obama heads up the Democratic ticket you can be reasonably sure to expect a record minority turnout this time around. Also, as I drive around white neighborhoods in Montgomery I see more than three Bright signs for every Love sign. My guess this is the worst of polls – cheapest but you get what you pay for.

  • LD

    For you doubters about this poll, check the previous voting patterns in district 2 every two years. Pay special attention to presidential election years when republican turnout is most heavy. Yes, Mr. Bright is a more legitimate candidate than other democrats that have tried to break the forty-four year streak, but facts are facts.

    The Barock, Bobby ticket will go down in flames on November 4th!!!

  • tips

    whooo wonder how they know .N one’s ask me who I will vote for .Darn these polls!!

  • tips

    Dear Pecan Jim – no one, Love nor Bright, paid for this poll. This was done by a non partisan publication that follows politics on a national level. I agree that it all comes down to the minority vote. Bright has a chance if it is heavy. If it is not, he will lose.

  • Anonymous

    My 13 year old son answered one of these polls the other night. I don’t live in district 2 so I don’t think it was this one.

  • Pecan Jim is a nut (get it?!?)

    You beat up on the poll for being statistically inaccurate, but base that on signs that you’ve seen driving around white neighborhoods in Montgomery? Ha! Too rich.

  • Anonymous

    poor pecan jim. typical of a not so bright voter though.

  • LA

    Everyone should go back and read Susan’s comments at # 6. Anzelone had Bright up by 10 points couple weeks ago.

  • Anonymous

    if this poll was in favor of bright he would be shouting it from the roof tops. let’s be honest.

    this is the first non biased group to run a poll in this race. i do agree, though, that african american voters were under estimated or not used in large enough numbers for the poll. that being said, bright can only win with a big african american turn out.

    he is counting on that of course.

  • Anonymous

    Agree with No. 17, Bright needs (and probably will get) every single African-American vote in the district. Very interesting point when you think about it.

  • Anonymous

    It’s a garbage poll but not totally useless. It is a good PR bit for Jay.

  • Anonymous

    it is all about the african american vote for bright, although he would not dare say that. but if they turn out big – he may win. if they only show up in average numbers – he will lose. we all know it. he wants to ride obama’s coat tails in that respect – yet shun Obama publicly. he is a sham – but he is not the first, nor will be the last, to do such a thing.

  • At least half a Brain

    #20….That would make since except one large problem…Bright selected Democrat long before Obama was even thought about as the top of the ticket. Bright will get boost from the turn out African American because of Obama, but in no way was he planning it. To call it a “sham” is just more negative politics.

  • LD

    The only way Bright will have a chance is if they can get every African-American in the district registered to vote and they have a 100% turnout.

    They will also need to have a LOT of crossover voting!

  • Anonymous

    bright would not have run if he thought clinton was going to be the nominee. he is counting on obama turning out a huge african american vote and them voting straight ticket dem.

  • sheshes

    Ya’lljust guit ruining your little fingers.’MAYOR BOBBY WILL BE OUR NEXT CONGRESSMAN’

  • Anonymous

    Bright will be our next Congressman if they have a huge african american turnout. Otherwise, he is dead in the water.

  • Big Al

    From my perspective, I don’t care who wins the 2d District. I don’t live there. But I will say that from my 40 years experience with political polls, most of the comments are valid. Jay Love and Bobby Bright have reputable polling firms and SurveyUSA is plausable, but the crowd is overlooking one thing: people are not paying attention to the congressional race yet. None of the polls therefor will be reasonably accurate until about October 7-10.

  • Very interesting and controversial… I like it!

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