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The Bobby Bright campaign is releasing to funders the results of a new poll from Anzalone Liszt Research that shows the Democrat up by 10 points in the AL-02 race over Republican rival Jay Love. This is fairly remarkable in the typically Republican district, a district that went for Bush in the last two elections 13 points higher than the nation as a whole (that is to say a Cook PVI rating of R+13).
An excerpt:
Less than three months from the 2008 election, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright leads Jay Love by ten points in the race to fill the seat of retiring Republican Congressman Terry Everett. Despite spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to secure the Republican nomination, Jay Love emerged from the Republican primary process battered after a highly negative, six-week runoff.
Read the polling memo here (.pdf).
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I don’t believe the poll. Used to raise campaign money only in my opinion.
Interesting.
Would like to know more details. Push poll?
Keep your head in sand and keep screaming LIBERAL at the top of your lungs. Bright is going to win by 3-6 points.
It has no details, no idea of who they called, etc. They admit its a push poll in the spin document. What a joke. This is for fundraising because Bright’s fundraising is pretty pitiful to this point.
Bright has picked off a good chunk of the HAS Wiregrass support. I’d be surprised if he won by ten in November but he’s in a good position right now. Tying him to Pelosi, etc is a stupid strategy because people know him better than they know the Dem leadership in Congress.
If this week was a round in a boxing match, would have to say Bright wins on points.
Hogwash- complete push poll. This is the silliness reminiscent of all Democrats’ delusions of grandeur. When will people realize that if you’re a real Republican you vote for Jay? I hate to sound redundant, but again, Bobby is no conservative, he’s simply a Blue Dog proxy for the party. that’s all.
I got a call from a poll earlier this week asking me about Terry Everett, Ron Sparks and Harri Anne Smith, before I hung up on them. Nonsense.
Thomas Jefferson,
That argument is why Republicans are in a bad spot. “When will people realize that if you’re a real Republican you vote for Jay?” Are you kidding me? No candidate is ENTITLED to someone’s vote based on party, or anything else for that matter.
Moreover, how do you quantify “Real Republicans”? The 10% of folks who vote straight ticket GOP every time? That’s just a moronic view of how this process works.
I was told a fascinating story by an acquaintance about how he was inclined to vote for Love, but was turned off by his election night speech. He then had the chance to speak to Love and tell him that it was possible to be a conservative and remain a Democrat. He told Love that because of his speech he would be voting for Bright. Love’s response “That’s just how you liberals think.”
Love should hire Scott Beason today! That’s his only chance at winning.
Brightloves Pelosi and Thomas Jefferson,
First, in looking at that document we must have different ideas of what a push poll is. This poll by Anzalone Liszt is not one (perhaps leans a little Dem based on the group, but not a push poll). I guess for you anything that is not remotely conservative-leaning by a Democratic polling group is a push poll. If it were a push poll, then they would not take the care to gather and analyze responses–push polls are used to spread rumor.
Instead, this does point out one thing Love has to contend with–many voters in the district identify him with the heavy negative campaign in the runoff. He must get past that to have any chance at winning this race–the vote for GOP candidate because of GOP strategy is not working, as well as the strategy of linking conservative Dems to Pelosi. And as has been mentioned on this site before, Bright’s polling firm has navigated races this year to Dem wins this year where Republicans have tried these strategies.
The poll is indicating that Bright’s message is being heard loudly by 02 voters and that it isn’t just about the GOP or DEM party’s anylonger! Its about how the 02 voters view the candidates as leaders and how they stand on the real issues facing our great state and country. Yes, Bright has picked up alot of the HAS voters and continues to garner their support in his bid for the 02 vacancy. The man utilizes his communicational skills extremely well in connecting with the Voters. He remains very focused, sincere and positive in delivering his message to the people. His campaign is one that is solid and is well managed. I’m not at all surprised with the poll results based on my personal observations of Bright and the manner in which he is managing his campaign. I’m going with the WSJ, and predict that he will be very hard to beat!
Keep on whistling past the graveyard.
John Anzalone is a respected pollster who does not put out garbage. His polls are consistently accurate, which is why people hire him.
Just because you don’t like the results you should not attack the poll’s credibility. This man put his professional reputation on it, as he has done many times in the past. And his polls have been on the money countless times. That is why people hire him.
At #8 – TJ I noticed you used the word “delusions.” I imagine you are familiar with that term. I would guess your attending psychiatrist uses it a lot.
Wow this is a bad sign for Love. Anzalone did the polls in the LA & MS special elections where democrats won in places they shouldn’t. I don’t know if these numbers will hold till Nov, but its def not a good sign for Love. I’d expect him to lash out even more after he changes his shorts.
Whoever is running Bright’s campaign must know what they are doing. First the Wall Street Journal, then these good polling numbers. That takes some serious know-how.
Smith support has not moved to Bright. It is either with Love or still nuetral at this point. I do agree that Love has ground to make up thanks to a bruising run off. That is why Bright looks better right now. I feel that will change, especially when the DNC goes after Love in a negative way on Bright’s behalf. That will then tarnish Bright as negative so he cannot stand up and act as if he is above it all and not negative or partisan. I think the DNC will do more harm than good for Bright. And in terms of Bright raising cash, it is hard for him. All he really has going for him is Jerry Beasley on the phone raising money…
On the validity of the poll, I must be missing something. Some are saying it’s a push poll, others are saying it wasn’t. Are the questions used in the poll listed somewhere in the memo, and I just missed it? Danny, what are the chances we can actually get a look at the questions, assuming they aren’t already out there and I didn’t overlook them? Can we really judge the credibility of this poll without seeing the questions asked?
It looks like the “Love Train” is actually a Lionel toy being manuevered by Gomez Addams into a fiery explosive crash . . .
I’m not surprised at the numbers and neither will it surprise me to see that margin increase before the election. Bright is a an excellent candidate who has alot of family members and friends throughout the Wiregrass area. He will garner much support from that arena as well as a large contingency of associates. His campaign has remained positive all along and is well managed. His ethics speaks volumes about him as a person. Everyone whom has known him for any length of time will echo this sentiment. He is knowledgable, well mannered and possesses a great demeanor. This resonates well with all the Voters and the Polls reflect this as well.
This is just speculation but I think Love is dealing with the same “woman scorned” problem that Barack Obama is facing right now on a national level. HAS and HRC may have totally different opinions on most issues, but they are similar in one important way: the core of their political support was based more on their personality than their policies. HAS’s speaking style resonated with Wiregrass voters, just like Clinton’s personal story resonated with her older female supporters, many of whom were divorced.
The people that identified with HAS personally didn’t like the way Love went after her at the end of the primary and now they’re ticked. A good chunk of Wiregrass HAS folks will vote for Bobby Bright come November; the question is will it be enough.
SamfordDem – it is obvious you are not from the wiregrass. Love didn’t go after Smith – in fact it was the other way around based on what I saw. What happened at the end was she tried to divide and conquer the district. Love will do very well in the Wiregrass. Not everyone down here is the redneck you think they are. We didn’t all buy into Smith’s bag of goods.
http://www.montgomeryadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080808/NEWS/80808032
National political handicapper: Jay Love has the edge
Montgomery Advertiser
August 8, 2008
A well-known national political prognosticator wrote Thursday that State Rep. Jay Love “has an edge” in the race for Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District.
Analyzing the District 2 race between Love, the Republican nominee, and Democrat nominee Bobby Bright, Cook notes that while the campaign should be competitive, the strongly conservative district tilts in Love’s favor.
“For his part, Love has sought to portray Bright as a ‘Pelosi Democrat’ and remind voters that he was recruited by national Democrats to enter the race. Love has also enlisted the campaign help of the retiring Everett, who has needled Bright by expressing skepticism towards the effectiveness of the Blue Dogs at setting House Democrats’ agenda,” Cook writes. “This race is likely to receive plenty of attention, but Love has an edge.”
Cook’s analysis is echoed by a new Love campaign poll that shows Republican Jay Love leading Democrat Bobby Bright 42 percent to 38 percent among likely voters.
The internal poll, conducted by nationally-recognized McLaughlin & Associates, also showed a strong majority of conservative voters in the district. Among respondents, 52 percent identified themselves as conservative, 28 percent identified as moderate and just 13 percent described themselves as liberal.
On a generic ballot for U.S. Congress, 48 percent said they would choose a Republican candidate, while only 34 percent said they would vote Democrat.
Cook’s analysis can be read online at http://www.cookpolitical.com.
Cook is a leading authority on American political trends and is regarded as one of the most adept election forecasters, successfully predicting close races from congressional seats to the presidency.
The New York Times referred to Cook as “one of the best political handicappers in the nation,” and described his publication, The Cook Political Report as “a newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.” In addition to his newsletter, Cook is a staple of television news, appearing regularly for political commentary on NBC, CBS, CNN, MSNBC and CSPAN.
#25, shilling for the Alabama GOP? Of course he has the edge, in theory. In practice, not so much.
That poll by McLaughlin sounds a little more accurate given the leanings of that district. Oh and those of you who keep claiming Anzalone is never wrong in his polls are funny. All of these pollsters on the right and left have their fair share of hits and misses.
Who paid for the poll? If it was the media it legit, if it was the DNCC or Bright, it a political message and might even need a disclaimer
I think both polls look great for Bright. One showing a huge lead, the other one showing a tie with in the margin of error. This is also after Love has spent close to $1,000,000. In all reality Love should be up 10 points in both polls being a GOP strong hold. The Love camp is doing an awful job.
And yes, that does include you LD and Thomas Jef
heard Bobby had Howard Dean pleading with the today’s show to try and get him on. just a begging.
dean and bright…..quite a pair i’d say
29 makes the most sense here. In this district, Love should be up 20 points and counting. The fact that he isn’t speaks to a good candidate and good moves in Bright’s side, and a bad candidate and bad moves on Love’s side.
Anonymous #25,
And, just how did Cook rate the recent Louisiana and Mississippi special elections?
The Illinois race was R+5, Louisiana’s was an R+7, Mississippi’s was an R+10. This one is R+13, which is a bigger challenge than the previous three (and not a Special Election), but it’s all contextual. It just seems like the GOP are fielding the weaker candidates. And isn’t it more about the candidates than party loyalty for most people?
This one has some of the same dynamics as those.
The Dems on this board think Bobby Bright is an incredibly strong nominee who has at least an even chance to win in a heavily conservative district. While aware that he might lose, they believe that at worst it will be a very tight race.
The Repubs who have commented think Bobby Bright is a liberal who accomplished nothing in his 8 years as mayor and that all “real Republicans” will come around and vote for Love. They insist this race will not be close, despite all indications to the contrary.
I think it’s clear which side is more in touch with reality.
I think Bright will win this race because his message of working across party lines is definitely being well received by a majority of the Voters right now. His willingness to work across lines is resonating well since people are tired of the same old strategy of current politicians. Their do nothing strategy has resulted in zero results for so long now that Voters are recognizing change is a must. Putting partisan politics aside and getting the ecomony back on track would be a good start, then work on reducing oil prices and ending wars, bottom line..
The poll that Love has released is bogus. The poll only looks at GENERIC Dems and Repubs. Obviously since this is a R13 District a generic Repub will always carry the lead even if it was Larry Graig. Talk about push polling! What is doesn’t address is that Bright is not a generic dem. Love is desperate, playing horrible defense and can’t get the campaign wheels going. Jay Love can keep trying to paint Bright as a liberal and the polls will be +15% for Bright.
Jay, if you are going to read from a written speech know how to deliver the message (i.e. not reading word for word) and learn how to be respectful and personable. Meaning, if a student is lobbying for higher education and he wants to talk to you step out of Mike Hubbard’s office and speak to him. First impression go a long way in life!!
[...] poll mentioned here yesterday was performed Aug. 3-6 by Bright’s polling firm, Anzalone Liszt Research, and showed Bright [...]
[...] favor since other polls (from Love’s campaign, Capital Survey Research (AEA), and Anzalone-Liszt) showed the race [...]