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Anzalone-Lizst has been polling for Artur Davis. From the Davis release:
In a new round of statewide polling conducted between July 14-July 17 by Anzalone-Liszt Research, a majority of Alabama voters now say that Alabama is ready to elect an African American governor in 2010. Fifty three percent of Alabamians agree that the state is ready, while 37% disagree. These numbers are a dramatic turnaround from voters’ responses to the same question in January, when only 42% of respondents answered in the affirmative, and a majority of 51% said that the state was not ready to elect a black governor.
The full release is here (.pdf).
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46 to 49:how about Mike Dow and Seth Hammett, two far superior candidates who got boxed out in ‘06 because the establishment told them to sit down. I hope Davis and Sparks run.
I’ll give you Davis as the winner of the Democrat primary. But after that, if he faces any of the leading republicans: James, Hawkins or Ivey. He loses. Polls this early on are posturing. We’re only seeing a small part of the poll anyway. If he were honest, Davis would release the whole poll instead of being selective to prove one point. That way we could reach our own conclusion, unfiltered by Anzalone’s spin doctors.
Stephen Black is not State Treasurer last time I checked. He lost that race several years ago.
I don’t think Ron Sparks will want to jump into a primary between Folsom and Davis. He’ll run for LG or something else if that doesn’t look like a good spot (maybe an open Senate seat or AL 4).
Folsom v. Davis will be a close race; don’t believe anyone who says otherwise. Folsom is much better known and seen as an Alabama guy, where folks think of Davis as more of a DC guy. Folsom has much, much higher name ID statewide and will peel plenty of voters away who go for GOP Prez candidates; I’m not yet sold Davis can do the same. On the flipside, Davis will probably pull 80%+ of the black vote not just because of his race but because of his close relationship with Obama. Basically, that gives Davis the advantage in the Dem primary, but Folsom would apppear right now to be the stronger candidate in the general.
Davis – He’s getting out there way ahead of everyone else. He is going to run the best campaign. Davis will do well with white Dem. voters in Birmingham and Huntsville. He should annihilate Folsom in the 7th Congressional District. I see this breaking much like the Obama – Clinton primary.
51, were Dow and Hammett “boxed out” of the race, or did they realize that they stood little chance against Riley?
While we are discussing Davis, I think it should be noted that his biggest liability in a general election campaign will be his congressional voting record.
After briefly scanning his voting record at ontheissues.org, I found several potentially lethal votes that the Republicans will use against him. These votes include:
A NO vote on the Flag Buring Amendment
A NO vote on the Pledge Protection Act
A NO vote on the Unborn Victims of Violence Act.
The third vote will be the most damaging.
How will he defend himself against attack ads that claim he is a Harvard-educated Washington liberal who does not think that criminals should be punished for killing unborn children?
Davis should win the Dem. Primary – demographics favor him over both Folsom and Sparks
Republican is up in the air – It will not be Tim James
Actually I think the more Tim James is in front of the public, the better he looks. The converse is true of Troy King. Every time he is in public he loses points. And don’t forget, king has two more years of idiocy before the primary. He has nowhere to go but down, down, down . . .
By 2010 James will be a major factor and King will be history – hilarious, error-ridden history.
Response to Anonymous #8 above.
Even the best polls are problematic. Polls are quick and dirty surveys and quality surveys rarely have a reliability higher than .8. Also the Washington Post has recently had a great deal of difficulty separating news from opinion. I have been using the best data available to study racial attitudes for nearly forty years now and the only times I have seen such dramatic a change as reported in this political document has been when the author is lying or has real data problems. If Davis thinks this means a black Democrat has a real chance of winning the governor’s race this time around he is letting wishes replace horses.
A correction to #8. The Washington Post did not call Anzalone “the best pollster in the nation.” The article (as I think posted here by Danny that day) said he was “the best pollster you’ve never heard of”. Bit of a difference there, but one that people like Peter Hart, Stan Greenburg, and Harrison Hickman (who happens to be Folsom’s pollster, and was Siegelman’s)would probably take issue with.
And to #17, those arguments didn’t work for the fair-haired multi-million dollar man of 2006, Luther Strange, who tried every which way but Sunday to paint Folsom with the corruption brush. Something about the investigation having been closed with no finding of wrongdoing by Jeff Sessions and Bill Pryor seemed to take the wind out of those sails.
For anyone who actually thinks Troy Boy King has any chance of ever being governor, the Wetumpka paper’s editorial by Kim Price does a great job of sticking one more fork in The Elba Embarrassment. Look for the place where he compares Troy to Barney Fife . . .with Barney getting the best of it . . .
Top “Troy King for Governor” slogans
Troy King Governor – WAY funnier than “Benson!”
Troy King for Governor – Help Mississippi’s self-esteem
Troy King for Governor – Get Alabama on “The Daily Show” EVERY NIGHT!
Troy King for Governor – So You Can Smugly Know that YOU are More of a Man Than the Governor (Even if You are a Woman)
that’s great 61, except none of those are funny. which i’m assuming was your intent.
Re; 61
Noe that is funny for anyone but oh so true, you are.
artur likes white women!