Here are the facts. Independents and crossover votes will be the determinants in this election. Youth turnout will be larger, but probably not significant enough to turn the vote. Same goes for black turnout, which, though large, will unlikely overcome the majority white and typically conservative votes in the Southern states necessary to be effective in the Electoral College. All that said, the news pundits and Republican operatives have been very open about the fact that they don’t have the resources of Obama, don’t understand which voters he may appeal to, and don’t have the campaign infrastructure he has built. This doesn’t spell victory in the real world of elections.

Most telling, a tried and true, small government big-L, self-confessed Libertarian has told me that he is seriously considering Obama. My prediction, for what it’s worth, Obama wins the popular vote by 10%. This flies in the face of all the political insiders I know telling me that race will likely prohibit an Obama victory. If James Fields can win in Cullman, why couldn’t Obama win in the US? (And don’t throw the “experience” talking point at this statement. We’ve had multiple Republican Presidents, most of whom I voted for based on their “experience,” only to see them fail us miserably.)

sorry,

Until Obama provides some meat and potatoes for these lavish policies he is proposing, I will put him in the same category as LaLa from your hometown bhamhomeboy, and his proposals in the same category as Birmingham’s bis for the Olympics.

I will once again post an exert from an earlier post- “A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves money from the public treasure. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates promising the most money from the public treasury” Alexander Tyler 1778

Surely the fad that is this campaign at the moment will fade and people will want more information about this two faced candidate and his promises

Bhmhomeboy, Judging both by your name and frequency of posting, I come to the conclusion that you, like samfordem, are not in the working world and thus might not understand the rules under which it operates. In the real world empty rhetoric is not worth the air it takes to speak it.

Obama has broken through into the world of facebook and myspace and everything else that young people are interested in. He’s been able to connect with them in a way no candidate has the past twenty years. They will turn out higher numbers for Obama than any election in modern history; the same will be true for African-Americans.

If you want to argue that won’t be enough for him to win the general, there’s an argument to be made. But to discount the fact that he defeated the strongest non-incumbent primary candidate in modern American history (in terms of endorsements, money, organization, and polling) largely because of increased turnout among blacks and young people, you are crazy. Those same people will vote for him in the general and they will bring plenty of friends, none of whom has a landline. Polls are going to be more inaccurate than usual this election cycle.

Speaking of great speeches and substance:

“I have a dream that my four little children will one day live in a nation where they will not be judged by the color of their skin but by the content of their character”. ~Martin Luther King, Jr.

Try judging Barack Obama by the content of his character, not by the color of his skin.

Bush’s tax cut was not really a tax cut, it was a tax shift from the rich (who could afford to pay) to the middle class.

Bush paid for his tax cut for the rich by raiding the surplus.

Bush is borrowing and spending money to pay for all war all the time.

Rolling back the tax cut for Cheney, Kerry, Bush, Kennedy, Clinton, Gates, Oprah, and all the other rich and famous will be doing the right thing for all Americans, not just Democrats.

Under Bush’s tax cut the rich got richer and the rest got the shaft, regardless of party.

I recall Bush giving some “good speeches” they were called called State of the Union Addresses. In one SOTU he said “Iraq had Nukes from Niger”, remember?

Candidates and politicians give speeches. That is why they hire “speech writers” it’s call “communicating”,Ronald Regan was called “The Great Communicator”, remember?. Don’t hate on Obama because he is an effective communicator.

I trust Obama not to lie us into a war. I trust Obama to do the right thing for all of the people not some of the people.