Posted by Yesterday’s post about AL-02’s turnout by county led me to consider the same issue in AL-05. Where are the voters who turned out last Tuesday?
If you are a Democrat, you have to be encouraged that more Democrats turned out than Republicans for a House seat that was pegged early as a GOP pick-up opportunity. Republicans will hope that voters will split their ballots in November; Democrats run stronger in the district’s local offices which accounts at least in part for the higher turnout on the Dem side.
These figures are derived from al.com where you can see how each candidate did in each county.
| AL-05 Primaries | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Democratic | ||||
| County | Votes Cast |
% of GOP Total |
Votes Cast |
% of Dem Total |
|
| Colbert | 1,113 | 2.93% | 4,663 | 12.14% | |
| Jackson | 524 | 1.38% | 7,468 | 19.44% | |
| Lauderdale | 2,704 | 7.13% | 5,251 | 13.67% | |
| Lawrence | 592 | 1.56% | 3,836 | 9.99% | |
| Limestone | 3,707 | 9.77% | 3,731 | 9.71% | |
| Madison | 24,075 | 63.47% | 12,154 | 31.64% | |
| Morgan | 5,219 | 13.76% | 1,312 | 3.42% | |
| TOTAL | 37,934 | 100.00% | 38,415 | 100.00% | |
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Danny, I wonder what those rural white democrats in Lawrence,Jackson,Colbert and Lauderdale counties will do in November. I believe Bush won every county in that district back in ‘04 if memory serves. You’d have to imagine with Obama being the nominee this year…. John McCain will probably win that district again for the GOP come November. Given all that I wonder if Griffith will take a hands off approach from Obama? The Democrat Congressman next door to him in southern middle Tennessee is doing that. Lincoln Davis is still refusing to endorse anyone for President.
I think those primary turnout numbers are strongly influenced by the local courthouse races. Madison County had several contested Republican Primary races and only one Democrat race. Morgan County had two hotly contested county-wide Commission seats and a couple of judge races in the Republican primary.
Jackson, Lawrence, Colbert, and Lauderdale all had several Democrat primaries and not any local Republican races that I know of. I don’t believe the Parker Griffith – David Maker race was a major factor in turning out the District 5 Democrats in the primary.
The fact is Parker Griffith will win Lauderdale, Colbert, Lawrence, and Jackson counties b/c they are strongly democratic. The swing counties will be Madison, Morgan and Limestone. If Griffith wins Madison he will win the race.
JJ,
On a generic partisan vote, I believe Colbert, Lawrence, and Jackson counties are solidly Democrat, but Lauderdale is a toss-up.
Madison, Morgan, and Limestone are Republican counties, and continue to grow more Republican every election cycle. I would agree that if Griffith wins Madison County, he’ll win the race.
I believe that CD-5 is an closely divided, solidly conservative, swing district. The winner will emerge based upon personal campaigning skills, the campaign organization, and whether or not the the race is nationalized.