Today’s Election Predictions

Republican

This has been the most competitive and expensive race of the primary cycle with four of the Republican candidates spending several hundred thousand dollars, each digging in their own pocket for a large percentage of their overall budget. While this race has had its share of twists and turns, it looks like the primary is ending where it began – with Harri Anne Smith and Jay Love as the favorites. Despite game efforts by David Woods and Craig Schmitdke, it’d be a huge upset if either displaced one of the top two to make the runoff.

Depending on which poll ones looks at, either Smith or Love has the lead. It’ll be interesting to see which candidate comes up on top, but unless there is a lead of high single digits or more, a runoff would begin on a pretty even footing.
Prediction – Smith and Love finish well ahead of the pack but within less than four points of each other, with Schmidtke usurping third place from David Woods.

Democratic

This one won’t be close. It’s hard to imagine Bright being seriously pushed to secure the nomination, but only a fraction of one of the district’s counties has actually ever seen him on the ballot. And opponent Cheryl Sabel is the only Democrat to run television ads, while Bright strategically sitting on his money. I’d peg 60%-65% as the expected Bright range, with anything below that showing considerable weakness that won’t help the mayor begin the general on the right foot.
Prediction – Bright wins by about 2 to 1 over his two lower profile opponents.

Republican

Though this has race attracted its share of Republicans, only two candidates have run top-flight, professional campaigns saturating the district with TV ads. Wayne Parker was the establishment favorite all along with Cheryl Baswell Guthrie playing the role of the self-funding insurgent. Guthrie’s fourth quarter ads hitting Parker for his lobbyist background have shaken up the race as local Repbulican figures have condemned Guthrie’s negativity. Doc Mancuso has injected his campaign with over $100K from his own pocket, which should separate him from the also-rans. But it’s hard to imagine any result other than Parker finishing first with Guthrie in second with everyone else in the dust. Which leaves the question: will Wayne Parker secure a majority today or will he be faced with a six week runoff that could grow increasingly negative?
Prediction – Guthrie’s negative ads might not ultimately help her bid for the nomination, but it will be enough to keep Parker under 50% and ensure a runoff.

Republican

With one candidate (Hornady) well qualifed, but unable to communicate with voters in any substantive way and one candidate (Chancey) a bomb-throwing outsider with questionable credentials, it’s hard to imagine that Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh won’t be the GOP nominee. But recent polling has indicated that the former GOP Chair and Riley insider is not well known statewide and could struggle to win the nomination outright. Anything less than an outright Twinkle win outright would certainly underwhelm most observers and remind them of her ill-fated 2002 run for State Treasurer when she was unable to even make the runoff in a four way field. Most likely Twinkle wins the nomination tonight and will begin the general election as at least an even money bet in a state where the Republican nominee will provide some significant coattails. But this primary — long though to be a coronation — could provide a significant obstacle (at least in terms of perception) with an underwhelming performance tonight.
Prediction – Twinkle leads the field, but is forced into a runoff with Hornady.

Republican Place 1

An interesting, if low profile, race has developed here with an all female field including three current or former judges. Teresa Petelos has to be considered the favorite given her larger JeffCo base and the prominence of the Petelos name in the area. Though they served together, former Montgomery District Judges Lucie McLemore and Peggy Givhan are now running against each other and perhaps irreparably harming the other’s chances of advancing to a runoff. Both were defeated by Democrats in 2006 and it doesn’t take Dr. Phil to deduce that they aren’t the best of friends. McLemore’s seems to be targeting conservative activists statewide in an attempt to broaden her base. It’s less clear where Givhan’s statewide support come from. But the two Montgomerians might be opening the door for the only candidate without a robe to join Petelos in a runoff. Criminal Appeals staff attorney Beth Kellum is in her second attempt at a statewide court seat after a solid, if unsuccessful run in 2006. Kellum’s been as active on the rubber chicken and country fair circuit as any candidate, and her work could pay off if her statewide network allows her to overtake McLemore and Givhan.
Prediction – Petelos leads comfortably, but will have to face McLemore in a runoff.

Republican Place 2

This race had potential for some fireworks, but it never seemed to develop. In one corner you have a golden boy, Harold See protege (Chris Mixon) and in the other you have the wife of a former Lieutenant Governor and more importantly one of Montgomery’s top lobbyists (Mary Windom). But while the Windoms did what was expected of them and ran a relatively professional campaign with statewide television ads, Mixon’s campaign never seemed to gel. Was Team Windom able to lock down the GOP moneygivers or at least keep them on the sidelines instead of falling in line behind the well-connected Mixon? While there’s no real ideological split here, the mainstream business establishment is used to getting its way in court races. Many expected Mixon to nail down the BCA endorsement and enter the fast track of Alabama politics. The endorsement didn’t happen, and the win doesn’t look likely.
Prediction – Windom wins, narrowly avoiding a runoff.

Republican, Districts 1 and 3

It’s hard to see how it caught the incumbents by surprise, but GOP State Board incumbents Randy McKinney and Stephanie Bell were caught flat footed when their opponents popped up on TV with slick, professional ads. If the 2006 primaries didn’t teach us anything else, it should have taught us to never take a primary lightly especially if you have powerful and well-heeled political enemies (see Dial, Gerald). While McKinney is better known (due to his recent State Senate loss and his geographically smaller district), Stephanie Bell is in a much more precarious position. Never a household name, Bell’s 3rd District spans several counties and two media markets. Bell is a ripe target for an AEA backed primary opponent. Skip Smithwick didn’t start the race well-known, but his grandfatherly appearance (highlighted in slick TV ads) and hard-hitting negative ads have propelled him into contention. Bell has hit back, both blasting Paul Hubbert and extolling her own accomplishments. We’ll know tonight if Bell’s responses saved her career or if it was too little, too late.
Prediction – After a largely unsuccessful legislative session (budget aside), AEA will knock off one of their chief antagonists in a down-ballot upset with potentially major implications.