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Smith Bolsters Campaign Funds in CD-2 Race Posted by Danny, on May 27th, 2008, at 5:46 pmRepublican state Senator Harri Anne Smith dropped another $150,000 of her own money into her AL-02 campaign today, according to a Parlor source. I think it’s fair to say that if her polling showed her where she wanted to be, she wouldn’t be dropping this kind of money in now. Related Articles: 42 comments to Smith Bolsters Campaign Funds in CD-2 Race |
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I think it would be just the opposite. If she were in trouble she wouldn’t be putting this kind of money in. If she loses how would she get it back? I’d be suprised if people would continue to give money to someone who lost a race to pay back her debt when she’s spent so much of their money already.
I bet we see her in a run-off. I agree that if she was out of the race she wouldn’t be dropping more money in.
I didn’t say she was in trouble and didn’t mean to imply it. She might want some insurance to nail down a run-off spot, or (more unlikely I think) be making a play to win without a run-off.
Put another way… if she was cruising to victory, would she put this in?
I don’t think she would put this kind of money in unless it had the potential to make a difference. Which I think is kinda what you meant.
I agree. There’s a reason for putting it in. She must feel pretty confident.
I agree with Danny in post two – this is to make sure that she makes the run off.
Schmidtke was the first to go negative, in a bizarre, inside baseball-ish attack on HAS for missing forums and opportunities to speak in public.
Why not attack her record?
Danny is correct that she is putting in more cash to make sure she makes the run off. She is borderline and needed an extra push to make sure she gets in the run off with Love.
Isn’t Smith the frontrunner in this race? Love, Woods and Grimes are sharing the Montgomery vote and Smith has to compete with Schmidtke in the South. She is a state Senator – wasn’t she always considered the one to beat?
I posted earlier on the AL02 Big List – Does anyone know why Smith’s TV ads are paid for by Smith for Congress, Inc? Why the Inc? Has she actually incorporated her campaign, or are the ads being paid for by another committee? I can not find any FEC filings for Smith for Congress, Inc. Comments?
#6 – Unconfirmed, but reliable sources have told me that in a recent poll (not a candidate poll) Love is number 1, but not enough edge to win without a run-off.
Is that the same poll that has Grimes number 2, because that is the most recent poll I have heard of.
Smith is a Senator, she should win.
In response to #1 statement/question: “If she were in trouble she wouldn’t be putting this kind of money in. If she loses how would she get it back?” Simple. If Harri Anne loses she will still be a state senator and over the years that has proven to be a pretty decent position from which to raise money. Same goes for Love and Grimes as state reps, but more so for a state senator.
So JRay,
Who according to your sources will fill the number two spot in the poll? Harri Anne?
post 11 – you can’t raise money for your state senate campaign and use that to pay off debt for a failed race for congress. if she loses no one will give her money specific to the congress loss debt – they will give her money for her state senate race only i am sure.
To #13, I don’t think you understand how this works. The debt retirement money that she raises wouldn’t go to her state senate campaign and then to her Congressional campaign, it would go directly to her Congressional campaign debt. Under the Ala Fair Campaign Practices Act, no state official can raise money for their STATE office campaign until 1 year prior to their state primary election, but they can raise funds for their FEDERAL race at any time. So the advantage is that Harri Anne, or any other legislator running for federal office or retiring federal campaign debt, can raise money from folks that are inclined to help out a sitting legislator. There is nothing improper or unprecedented about it, it just answers John Deere’s question in #1 about how she would get loan money back if she lost.
Dothan – I could not get any additional info, but based on the tone of the conversation, and a bit of innuendo on the part of my buddy, I gathered that Love has a slight lead, with Woods and Smith nipping at his heals. It looks like a neck to neck to neck horse race as of late last week. Frankly, I wish the Grimes at 20% was true.
post 14 – do you really think folks will give freely to a sitting legislator on a failed race debt? NO – they will not. It will be hard for Love or Smith to raise money to retire such debt if they lose. They might as well chalk it up as a loss of their own personal cash in that situation.
I guess it is good that Jay got that nice little legislative payraise so he can cover for his half million dollar adventure.
The only way Grimes would get 20% is if the candidates were all on that Last Comic Standing show. He has a great sense of humor and you never know what is going to come out of his mouth.
I love how Smith has under 300,000 of her own money in the race and has raised more than that from donors and it is a big deal, yet Schmidtke is over 500,000 (with 11,000 on hand before running new commercials so probably closer to 700 or 800,000 now) and love is quickly approaching the half million mark and that goes under the radar. The way that you all talk it just goes to show who the front-runner is (and has been since before she entered the race).
Just as people are giving them money to run right now, they will help to retire the debt if Jay or Harri Anne or both lose.
At #18, you forget something – Jay Love has only raised about a third of what he has borrowed. Unless he wins, he’ll eat a LOT of that debt.
I’ll concede that, but I bet his lobbyist buddies, etc can find him $100,000 or so, you know, for “gratitude.”
Danny
Latest from FEC website: based on 14 May FEC3 plus all 24-hr & 48-hr Notices submitted by Committees.
as of 28 May: Total Funds/Candidate Funds
Schmidtke: 582K/528K
Love: 582K/500K
Smith: 473K/292K
Woods: 392K/250K
Bright: 224K/0
as of 28 May: Net Funds from Contributors/PACs
Schmidtke: 54K
Love: 82K
Smith: 181K
Woods: 142K
Bright: 224K
Threw in Bright as the top funded Dem.
JRay- the numbers from the “Washington Political Group” out of Atlanta are true. Grimes is at 20% with an undecided running with 22% behind Jay. This I believe is why Harri Anne and others are trying to pour on the money. Also, they are getting the money in before the deadline for a possible runoff. Because my understanding is that after June 3 everybody starts out at $0 as far as receiving contributions from people who have already contributed to them before.
Anon – as I understand the FEC guidelines: Each election (Primary/Run-off/General) are independent contribution periods. So, individual contributors can put $2300 for each election and PACs can put in $5000 for each election. I guess the question is, how many contributors have the financial ability to contribute another $2300 toward a run-off? Regarding the WPG poll – can’t find it, haven’t seen it, and haven’t heard there name mentioned anywhere but here.
The Grimes poll is bogus. I wish it wasn’t as I like david, but it is.
post24- I have contacted the Grimes campaign today and they confirmed that on Friday they did receive poll numbers from “WPG”, who does polling for the RNC and Zogby, showing State Rep. David Grimes at 20%. Who in the campaign did you talk to that stated it was bogus?
post22 The reason Harri Anne is pumping money into her campaign at the last minute, and all of the sudden doing talk radio, which she has been ducking, like Markwell is because of her flip flop with the Taylor Crossings in Dothan area. It has cost her considerable support in south Alabama. This has caused her poll numbers to tank from her base, and she is trying to salvage them where ever she can to make a run off.
At #25 – I have seen actual poll numbers on this race, and your numbers are not reasonable in comparison. They are way out of line with all other polls. When that happens, you thow out the numbers that do not agree with the others for an accurate read.
I like David and would love to see him do well. But I do not buy those numbers. Sorry.
The run off will be between two of the three Woods, Love and Smith. Grimes is out, he is not in touch with reality. He’ll tell a lie when the truth is easier. Heck the legislature was in session yesterday and he wasn’t even there!
post27 What polls have you seen and have you spoken with any of the other campaigns?
Post 27 – I assume Woods is ontop…who is 2nd place if you know of numbers.
Post 27…sorry, I meant to say Love is ontop..so who’s in second if you’ve seen numbers? Probably Woods or Smith.
The leaders are Smith and Love within the range of error. Woods is still close enough to make the runoff and possibly lead but his position has weakened. All other candidates are out of it.
If Woods gets stronger, Love is the one who’ll be odd man out – he and Love are working the same voters. But I think Woods is fading.
post32- What polls are you using?
Billy B.- If Grimes was not there was a vote taking place that was missed in the State House of Representatives?
There are a few polls out there, and they all have either Smith or Love first with Woods closeness varying. Everyone else is out.
post36- Do you have a link to any of these polls?
I know there is a lot of polling being done on the Rep side. I’ve been polled 4 times in the last 6 days. Since I’m retired, I’m inside during the hottest part of the day, and I must be on the Repub call list. Anyway, 3 polls were push button, 1 was a voice. The last two calls I’ve received were very similar. Just 2 questions – 1)Will you be voting in the Rep Primary? 2) Which of the following will you vote for? But they never call be back to tell me if I won anything.
post38- You did win! They called back to be in another poll.
J Ray,
I haven’t received a single call yet to cast my dad burnt ballot! Now I’m downright just clicked bout that. Now I just don’t think it being to fair that you been gettin all them there calls and my phone ain’t rung just the first time from them there pollsters. I pay my bill and need to get my vote counted but it wouldn’t be for HAS. You can put that in your pipe and smoke it!
Hey JRay,
Well you know I am starting to get alittle excited about the election now that the time is nearing to push that lever for a new Congressman for the 02 district. Now I can just hear it from all of you saying, “aren’t we all?”
Been awhile since we all had the pleasure to select a new face to send to Washington to represent us in Congress! Isn’t it great to know that next Tuesday that we will have also narrowed the selection down to possibly two candidates to choose from?
But hey, wait a minute and just imagine all the money spent on the campaign for the primary by all the Repub candidates in this race.
Now can you fathom all that hard earned money spent on a campaign and possibly five of them will be going home empty handed and more likely than not, in debt big time.
Just how long do you think it will take to work and pay back such large sums on a loan of that magnitude?
I certainly am proud its not me. WOW……
Frederick – I’m sure I’m being tracked. Someone must being testing their ad impact on decided voters. Ain’t politics fun.