The Post MS-01 Election Landscape

Mississippi's 1st Congressional District in the northern part of the stateFolks are still reeling from the victory of Democrat Travis Childers in Tuesday’s special election for Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District. One campaign veteran told the Parlor that it is “hard to overstate the shockwaves that sent through the beltway Tuesday night.”

A Republican politico in Montgomery told the Parlor that Democrat Travis Childers’ victory in Mississippi was “a disaster,” adding “The NRCC should have spent WHATEVER IT TOOK to win that seat – with the NY Times running stories about the south going to Obama, etc… you don’t lose – period!”

Former NRCC chair Rep. Tom Davis of Virginia was foot-stomping unhappy at a weekly meeting of GOP House members:

Rep. Tom Davis stomped on the concrete floor of the Capitol basement when asked by reporters about Republican fortunes at the moment.

“This is the floor,” he said, by way of explanation. “We’re below the floor.”

Inside the meeting, Davis had just presented his colleagues with what he said was a 20-page memo outlining his prescription for a way out of this mess. He did not offer details to the press, yet did not spare the party and the president scathing criticism in his public comments.

“The president swallows the microphone every time he opens his mouth,” Davis said.

. . .

Asked if he thought there should be a change in House GOP leadership, he brought up the 2006 election and the loss of Congress, then wondered aloud why, when “the plane is being flown into the mountain,” there has been no change in direction.

The GOP lost 30 House seats in 2006, and Davis estimated that, without changes, the GOP could lose 25 seats in November.


Several readers on both sides of the aisle have emailed the Parlor to point out that Alabamian John Anzalone helped Childers’ campaign. Roll Call had a feature about him last night, and The Fix, the Washington Post’s politics blog, named Anzalone in its short list of Tuesday’s winners:

The Alabama-based pollster is the hottest commodity in the consultant business these days. Anzalone handled polling for Childers as well as Rep. Don Cazayoux, who won the Louisiana 6th District special election earlier this month. Among the other candidates in Anzalone’s stable: State Sen. Kay Hagan, who is challenging Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-N.C.) this fall; and state Sen. Debbie Halvorson, the odds-on favorite in the open-seat race in Illinois’s 11th District.

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15 comments to The Post MS-01 Election Landscape

  • dot

    Bright or Segall will win I bet –just read this:

    Several Republicans decried the NRCC’s strategy in the Mississippi and Louisiana special elections of nationalizing the campaigns by linking the Democratic candidates to Obama. All that did, they said, was energize African Americans to vote, while taking the GOP’s focus off the local issues the Democrats were riding to victory. “Cheap, partisan political points” are not going to work in this environment, Keller said.

  • Although this by no means excuses the GOP for this loss it should be noted that until US Senator Roger Wicker won that seat in the 1994 landslide, the democrats had controlled that seat since the civil war. It was represented by the legendary Jaime Whitten for nearly a half century until he retired in 1994. Also another thing that came into play here was that Greg Davis was from the affluent Memphis suburbs. This district has always had someone from the southern and eastern wing(rural/poor area) of the district representing it in Congress. But with that being said you have to tip your hat to Childers and his crowd. The Mississippi Democrat Party has been coming apart at the seams in recent years. Just last weekend they lost another State Rep to the GOP when Sidney Bondurant switched. So for them to pull this off is truly remarkable. Childers also carried Lee County/Tupelo. That county since the Kirk Fordice era has been voting for practically every republican under the sun but Childers won it. I wouldnt be shocked if the GOP gets Greg Davis to drop out and they replace him with State Senator Alan Nunnelee from Tupelo for the November race. It will be interesting to see if the GOP reverses this trend. Congressman Lincoln Davis who represents the area next door to Bud Cramers district is vacating his seat in two years to run for Governor. That seat should be an easy GOP pick up…you would think.

  • Bright for Congress

    BRIGHT FOR CONGRESS!

  • Anonymous

    I’ve read that the Dem that won in MS was “pro-life, pro-family, and pro-gun.” I’m curious to know, because I have not studied the candidate, how was he different from a mainstream Republican? For example, was he advocating withdrawal from Iraq? Was he advocating a repeal of the Bush tax cuts? In other words, what traditional democrat positions was he running on?

    The reason I ask is two-fold. First, I really want to know the answer. Second, it seems to me that Democrats better be careful about how conservative their candidates are. It will be hard to govern if, by winning conservative districts with conservative candidates, you end up with such a large tent that the only thing a super-majority of your members can agree on is that they hate George Bush and Karl Rove.

  • BlueDog

    Childers was for withdrawal from Iraq, against foreign trade deals, against oil/gas subsidies, and for SCHIP. Also expect one of his first votes to be to override the Bush veto of the farm bill.

  • Pecan Jim

    It is fairly clear that, thanks to Bush’s screw-ups, the old saws of “pro-birth, pro-man runs the family, and pro-gun” are no longer the top considerations for many of the voters this time around.

  • Anonymous

    I beg to differ with you but, most people I know are sick and tired of being pushed over by the large oil companies raising prices on oil. This is creating higher gas taxes not to mention the taxes being levied by our own bureaucracy on the same petroleum products. Also, just take a look at the crime being committed every day on our streets by 3rd world illegals in this country! You better tell someone else that pro-life, pro-gun, and pro-family isn’t important. WAKE UP AMERICA and VOTE for Democratic changes now! 8 years of the same should be more than enough to get your attention and VOTES for change…

  • walt moffett

    Anonymous in #4, read this article at the Daily Journal in Tupelo and reach your own conclusions.

  • Onelife

    To #4 >> how was he different from a mainstream Republican…

    He was exactly like a mainstream Republican. Conservative at home. Liberal in Washington.

  • Onelife

    >>Also, just take a look at the crime being committed every day on our streets by 3rd world illegals in this country!

    On what planet are the Dims going to reverse this trend. The Dims are 100% pro-illegal immigration.

  • Helen

    Anonymous #7 and Onelife, immigrants have the lowest crime rate of any group. That’s been so for over a hundred years. The reality is that they are more often the victims. See: “Immigration and the Justice System” http://www.migrationpolicy.org/files/RPMVol1-No5.pdf

  • The Sandman

    Helen -

    We are not talking about LEGAL immigrants who went through the proper channels to become American citizens, we are talking about ILLEGAL immigrants who are already lawbreakers by virtue of the way they entered this country. I don’t believe anyone with a shred of intellectual honesty can make the argument that the crime rate for illegal immigrants is as low as the crime rate for legal ones.

  • Onelife

    >>I don’t believe anyone with a shred of intellectual honesty can make the argument that the crime rate for illegal immigrants is as low as the crime rate for legal ones.

    I’m pretty sure the crime rate for illegal immigrants is 100%…

  • Real Talk

    Business owners are pushing REAL HARD for an end to illegal immigration…oh wait, no they’re not — our ENTIRE ECONOMY DEPENDS ON THEM

  • [...] It’s easy for the Montgomery politico to comment on the Parlor Thursday that the NRCC should have done “whatever it took.” That politico should understand that you can spend a million, spend two million, spend whatever you’ve got – but if all things are equal with the candidates on election day, the jackass that can’t relate to the rural, hardworking Mississippian (or Alabamian) is the one that’s going to lose, even if he is a Republican. [...]

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