Folks (like Rollcall, for one) are taking notice that Cheryl Baswell Guthrie announced that her AL-05 campaign raised $200,000 in 30 days. She has pledged to put up to $100,000 of her own money into the campaign, and so it is a bit unclear how much of the $200k might be her own.
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(R) Jeff Sessions (1-19)
Would take a Larry Craig-type revelation to shake up this race.
(D) Vivian Figures (33-1)
Is anything shaking in this race at all?
(D) David Marsh (OFF)
A rumor here, a rumor there, but we haven’t seen that they have legs.
(D) Artur Davis (OFF)
Could have been strong underdog, but he’s out
(D) Jim Folsom (OFF)
No rumblings, whispers, or substantial rumors that he might run.
(D) Pete Johnson (OFF)
Said August 3 that he will not run. (B’ham News, 8/4/07)
(D) Ron Sparks (OFF)
Flirted with idea. Announced June 12 that he will not seek the office.
(R) Jo Bonner (1-29)
No obvious chinks in the armor.
(D) Benjamin Lodmell (>100-1)
Charge of soliciting more than votes gives him the longest of odds.
(D) Bobby Bright (3-2) NEW
Shoo-in for Democratic nomination, then the task toughens.
(R) Harri Anne Smith (3-1) NEW
Outright win only thing to keep her out of a GOP primary run-off.
(R) Jay Love (4-1) NEW
Easily the most viable of the Montgomery-area GOP candidates.
(R) David Woods (20-1) NEW
Is he crazy like a Fox-20 President?
(R) David Grimes (30-1) NEW
Showing least energy among those with some name ID.
(R) Craig Schmidtke (90-1) NEW
Oral surgeon will be able to numb the pain of loss.
(D) William Boyd (>100-1) NEW
Montgomery Mayoral hopeful will lose to Bright again.
(R) John W. Martin(>100-1) NEW
Army veteran will struggle to be competitive.
(R) Terry Everett (OFF)
The incumbent announced his retirement Sept. 26.
(R) Mike Rogers (1-11)
Heavy favorite but other incumbents have more favorably drawn districts.
(D) Josh Segall (19-1) NEW
District & early signs of professionalism up his chances a bit.
(R) Robert Aderholt (1-29)
Has built a base and enjoys powerful advantages of incumbency.
(D) Greg Warren (40-1)
It’s a sleeper race, and it’s still snoozing.
To be updated. See the AL-05 Big List.
(R) Ray McKee (tba)
The only announced challenger when Cramer announced retirement.
(D) Bud Cramer (OFF)
The incumbent announced his retirement on March 13.
(R) Spencer Bachus (1-70)
Most senior Republican in the state, in the most GOP District.
(D) Artur Davis (1-49)
Will be extremely difficult to unseat one of state Dems' leading lights.
(D) Jim Folsom (6-1)
LG has lots going for him, but plenty of obstacles until inaugural.
(R) Bradley Byrne (7-1)
Two year college ban is political gold. How rich is the vein?
(R) Troy King (17-2)
Top-ranking GOP candidate. Fierce detractors and fierce supporters.
(D) Artur Davis (9-1)
Little doubt that the popular Dem is considering a run.
(R) Mike Hubbard (13-1)
Party chair has nice launch pad but not committing to run.
(R) Jack Hawkins (15-1)
Transparent interest, would Riley's blessing be boon or bane?
(R) Kay Ivey (17-1)
Hitched her wagon to the wrong presidential candidate.
(D) Seth Hammett (18-1)
Maybe ties to 2-year college scandal are a little too close
(R) Tim James (19-1)
Announced, but politically inexperienced & has GOP detractors.
(R) Beth Chapman (20-1)
Too crowded. No reason for the SoS not to wait.
(D) Ron Sparks (20-1)
With Folsom & Davis obvious Dem frontrunners, he’ll likely pass.
(D) Mike Dow (22-1)
Too early to dismiss him from what may be his last shot.
(R) Tony Petelos (22-1)
Hoover Mayor focusing on re-election first.
(R) Luther Strange (22-1)
Might be more likely to run if King passes on this race.
(R) Charles Bishop (75-1)
Perennial possibility. Probably picked up pugilists’ support.
(R) Roy Moore (75-1)
Can’t rule him out until there is a stake in him. Is he still in GOP?
(R or I) Stan Pate (75-1)
Rumor says GOP curmudgeon considering. Perhaps as Independent?
(?) David Bronner (OFF)
He gets The Jimmy Rane TreatmentTM (See Rane below)
(L) Loretta Nall (OFF)
Tells the Parlor she won’t run for governor in 2010.
(R) Rob Riley (OFF)
The rumors are stale. Might run for AG.
(R) Harri Anne Smith (OFF)
She’ll be representing CD-2 or tainted by the loss.
(D) Susan Parker (OFF)
Democratic Party team player not needed off the bench.
(R) Jimmy Rane (OFF)
No indication that he is running despite earlier rumors.
(R) Richard Shelby (OFF)
Riley/Shelby office swap intriguing idea but no indication that he’ll run.
The Alabama Line and its contents are the creation of Doc’s Political Parlor, reflect consensus from insiders and well-connected folks on both sides of the aisle, and will be updated as conditions change. These odds are meant to inform, entertain, and provoke, not to serve as actual means for losing money. Permission granted to use this material if PoliticalParlor.net is cited as the source.
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Maybe with that kind of money she can make some better commercials - ones that actually say what she stands for instead of playing the Obama card. People out there are dying to vote for a candidate who says what they stand for and actually believes it.
Comment by The Sandman — May 8, 2008 @ 3:09 pm
Maybe with that kind of cash she can find someone to speak for her in the next commercial. Her voice reminds me of chalk scraping on a chalkboard.
Comment by bhmhomeboy — May 8, 2008 @ 3:28 pm
We will know more once the FEC reports are filed on May 22, but I think Ms. Guthrie might be confused - there is a difference between loaning money and raising money. As anyone who has raised federal money knows, it is incredibly difficult to raise $200,000 in a short period of time, but not impossible. I do think her campaign should engage the media with a little more integrity however. If she has indeed “raised” $200,000 that is one thing, but if any portion of that has been loaned to her campaign her press release is misleading. Also, commitments and cash on hand are entirely different things.
Comment by daisy — May 8, 2008 @ 3:36 pm
On a different note, I thought it interesting when asked yesterday what Republicans she has supported in the past, she said “I have supported Richard Shelby since I was a young girl.” Senator Shelby switched parties 14 years ago - the day after the historic 1994 elections. Unless she is much younger than she looks, she was supporting Richard Shelby when he was a Democrat. Her mother was a deGraffenreid so this makes sense.
Comment by daisy — May 8, 2008 @ 3:39 pm
It will be very interesting to see if this press release was as accurate as the claim that it took Wayne Parker 3 months to raise his $177,000. (Meaning he knew that Cramer was retiring 2 months before he announced it. Riiiiiiiiiiiight.)
So far I’m decidedly not impressed with her level of honesty (or possibly intelligence).
Comment by Political Junkie — May 8, 2008 @ 10:22 pm
just go to www.fec.gov
type in her name after clicking on ‘candidates’.
she has as much chance as lynn greer did. none. parker griffith will walk away with this one. Unless people focus on his louisiana business deals and cancer medicare issues/
Comment by publius — May 8, 2008 @ 10:31 pm
Actually, Lynn Greer had a great chance to beat Cramer back in 1990…until he ran out of money.
Ms. Guthrie should get into the runoff with Parker. And unlike Greer, she won’t run out of money. Unless she learns to think on her feet, however, she will get her teeth kicked in and won’t have to worry about Parker Griffith in the fall.
I do go along with your assessment about Parker Griffith, however. He will probably walk away with this one because he has that unique quality that most equate with success in politics - he’s a very good liar.
Comment by The Sandman — May 10, 2008 @ 12:06 am
I get nauseated whenever I see her commercial. It’s soooo typical of the old-south mentality … use money and politics to get the christian vote and fight secular interests. I hope Obama democrats can defeat this special-interest corporate lawyer.
Comment by Jim — May 12, 2008 @ 8:09 am