Love is in the Air
Republican Jay Love has a new TV ad for the AL-02 race.
Republican Jay Love has a new TV ad for the AL-02 race.
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(R) Jeff Sessions (1-19)
Would take a Larry Craig-type revelation to shake up this race.
(D) Vivian Figures (33-1)
Is anything shaking in this race at all?
(D) David Marsh (OFF)
A rumor here, a rumor there, but we haven’t seen that they have legs.
(D) Artur Davis (OFF)
Could have been strong underdog, but he’s out
(D) Jim Folsom (OFF)
No rumblings, whispers, or substantial rumors that he might run.
(D) Pete Johnson (OFF)
Said August 3 that he will not run. (B’ham News, 8/4/07)
(D) Ron Sparks (OFF)
Flirted with idea. Announced June 12 that he will not seek the office.
(R) Jo Bonner (1-29)
No obvious chinks in the armor.
(D) Benjamin Lodmell (>100-1)
Charge of soliciting more than votes gives him the longest of odds.
(D) Bobby Bright (3-2) NEW
Shoo-in for Democratic nomination, then the task toughens.
(R) Harri Anne Smith (3-1) NEW
Outright win only thing to keep her out of a GOP primary run-off.
(R) Jay Love (4-1) NEW
Easily the most viable of the Montgomery-area GOP candidates.
(R) David Woods (20-1) NEW
Is he crazy like a Fox-20 President?
(R) David Grimes (30-1) NEW
Showing least energy among those with some name ID.
(R) Craig Schmidtke (90-1) NEW
Oral surgeon will be able to numb the pain of loss.
(D) William Boyd (>100-1) NEW
Montgomery Mayoral hopeful will lose to Bright again.
(R) John W. Martin(>100-1) NEW
Army veteran will struggle to be competitive.
(R) Terry Everett (OFF)
The incumbent announced his retirement Sept. 26.
(R) Mike Rogers (1-11)
Heavy favorite but other incumbents have more favorably drawn districts.
(D) Josh Segall (19-1) NEW
District & early signs of professionalism up his chances a bit.
(R) Robert Aderholt (1-29)
Has built a base and enjoys powerful advantages of incumbency.
(D) Greg Warren (40-1)
It’s a sleeper race, and it’s still snoozing.
To be updated. See the AL-05 Big List.
(R) Ray McKee (tba)
The only announced challenger when Cramer announced retirement.
(D) Bud Cramer (OFF)
The incumbent announced his retirement on March 13.
(R) Spencer Bachus (1-70)
Most senior Republican in the state, in the most GOP District.
(D) Artur Davis (1-49)
Will be extremely difficult to unseat one of state Dems' leading lights.
(D) Jim Folsom (6-1)
LG has lots going for him, but plenty of obstacles until inaugural.
(R) Bradley Byrne (7-1)
Two year college ban is political gold. How rich is the vein?
(R) Troy King (17-2)
Top-ranking GOP candidate. Fierce detractors and fierce supporters.
(D) Artur Davis (9-1)
Little doubt that the popular Dem is considering a run.
(R) Mike Hubbard (13-1)
Party chair has nice launch pad but not committing to run.
(R) Jack Hawkins (15-1)
Transparent interest, would Riley's blessing be boon or bane?
(R) Kay Ivey (17-1)
Hitched her wagon to the wrong presidential candidate.
(D) Seth Hammett (18-1)
Maybe ties to 2-year college scandal are a little too close
(R) Tim James (19-1)
Announced, but politically inexperienced & has GOP detractors.
(R) Beth Chapman (20-1)
Too crowded. No reason for the SoS not to wait.
(D) Ron Sparks (20-1)
With Folsom & Davis obvious Dem frontrunners, he’ll likely pass.
(D) Mike Dow (22-1)
Too early to dismiss him from what may be his last shot.
(R) Tony Petelos (22-1)
Hoover Mayor focusing on re-election first.
(R) Luther Strange (22-1)
Might be more likely to run if King passes on this race.
(R) Charles Bishop (75-1)
Perennial possibility. Probably picked up pugilists’ support.
(R) Roy Moore (75-1)
Can’t rule him out until there is a stake in him. Is he still in GOP?
(R or I) Stan Pate (75-1)
Rumor says GOP curmudgeon considering. Perhaps as Independent?
(?) David Bronner (OFF)
He gets The Jimmy Rane TreatmentTM (See Rane below)
(L) Loretta Nall (OFF)
Tells the Parlor she won’t run for governor in 2010.
(R) Rob Riley (OFF)
The rumors are stale. Might run for AG.
(R) Harri Anne Smith (OFF)
She’ll be representing CD-2 or tainted by the loss.
(D) Susan Parker (OFF)
Democratic Party team player not needed off the bench.
(R) Jimmy Rane (OFF)
No indication that he is running despite earlier rumors.
(R) Richard Shelby (OFF)
Riley/Shelby office swap intriguing idea but no indication that he’ll run.
The Alabama Line and its contents are the creation of Doc’s Political Parlor, reflect consensus from insiders and well-connected folks on both sides of the aisle, and will be updated as conditions change. These odds are meant to inform, entertain, and provoke, not to serve as actual means for losing money. Permission granted to use this material if PoliticalParlor.net is cited as the source.
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Looks like he took it down.
Comment by William Wyatt Wallace — May 7, 2008 @ 2:58 pm
http://youtube.com/watch?v=P4zVVeXgrIo
Comment by Anonymous — May 7, 2008 @ 3:11 pm
How much out of his pocket did he pay for the fancy effects? That was catchy, but isn’t it a little early in the campaign to start trying to fight the liberals?
I will save all of the attacks on Love for others. But I am going to bet that within the first two criticisms comes someone pointing out him speaking with the tax cut logo and Riley over his shoulder.
Comment by William Wyatt Wallace — May 7, 2008 @ 3:20 pm
I wasn’t going to say anything about Riley or the logo. But I about fell out of my chair when he started talking about “fighting tax hikes” when the VERY FIRST THING he did in the legislature was vote for tax HIKES. He told his district in 2002 he was against tax hikes and then immediately voted FOR them. Anyone wanna bet he would do the exact same thing now?
Comment by Heard that one before — May 7, 2008 @ 3:23 pm
I don’t understand why people can’t be specific when they talk about their problems with candidates? Is it because they’re all hat and no cattle?
In 2006 he sponsored HB 290 which was included as a compromise that passed the legislature and gave tax cuts in Alabama for the first time in over 60 years or something.
This year he sponsored HB 144 which has passed the House and will give health care tax deductions to small businesses and their employees.
Love at least seems to have a record to run on that can be backed up with facts.
Comment by John Deere — May 7, 2008 @ 4:07 pm
Jay and David are either in collusion, have the same pollster, or asking the exact same questions, as their ads track almost exactly with each other.
I find it more than coincidental that they both come out blowing Gideon’s trumpet for their Christian Values, and now have each have an ad up that starts with gas prices and grocery prices going up.
Next I bet Jay comes out riding a 4 wheeler and shooting at an illegal alien that’s crossing a river.
Sad that Smith looks the most reasonable in the Republican Primary.
Comment by Love Loves Woods Ads — May 7, 2008 @ 5:46 pm
If Harri Anne is the best the district has to offer then Republicans are really in trouble. I’m not sure how it adds up that she picked up an endorsement today based on her never wavering and standing firm against gambling.
What has Country Crossings been about for her? First she was against it before she was for it? She makes John Kerry and Hillary look decisive.
Also, what about the lottery? Senator Smith supported it way back when in 1999 or 2000. Giles led the fight against the lottery. Did he just forget that or does it not matter?
I can’t see anything about the Senator that is deserving of a promotion to Washington.
Comment by John Deere — May 7, 2008 @ 7:25 pm
John Deere the FACT is that JOHN KNIGHT sponsored the tax cut bill. Jay Love’s bil, died in committee. (Source: Alabama legislative information service).
Also according to ALISON (the offical legislative website) Jay Love has passed only ONE BILL as a legislator - a lump sum payout to state employee retirees of taxpayer money.
These are facts. I am currently going to ALISON to check on this HB290 you cite. It is either John Knight’s bill or it died in committee. I do know I am right.
Comment by John Deere Lies — May 8, 2008 @ 8:14 am
Just checked ALISON. HB 290 (regular session, 2006) by Love died in committee.
Stop lying, John Deere.You sound just like Jay Love.
Comment by John Deere Lies — May 8, 2008 @ 8:17 am
By the way, the substitute HB 144 sponsored by Love (and HE HIMSELF added the substitute) will RAISE TAXES RETROACTIVELY on several businesses. Nice of you to bring up his latest tax hike bill.
Comment by John Deere Lies — May 8, 2008 @ 8:19 am
John Deere Lies. . .(cough)Jack Campbell(cough). . .is once again not telling the truth. HB350, which Jay Love and most other Republicans voted against, is the corporate tax bill. Love’s HB144, which was supported by all of the Republican House members and is in the official 2008 legislative agenda of the House Republican Caucus, CUTS TAXES on small business owners and employees.
Danny really needs to appoint a truth squad to police the comment section of the site.
Comment by Standing for truth, justice and the American way — May 8, 2008 @ 9:28 am
You might want to tell Gov. Riley that Jay Love played no role in cutting taxes. I found this excerpt from Riley’s 2008 State of the State Address:
“All of these new jobs are making a real difference in the lives of our citizens. As people in other states wring their hands and endure sleepless nights wondering if their job will be there next month, Alabama’s economy has remained the envy of our region. Personal incomes are rising at a rate faster than any other Southern state. Our unemployment rate reached its lowest level in history. And finally Alabama stopped taxing its poorest families at the highest rate in the nation. I want to thank Representative John Knight and Representative Jay Love for working with a bipartisan coalition to give our working families the first tax relief in the history of our state.”
http://governorpress.alabama.gov/pr/sp-2008-02-06-sots2008.asp
Oh, and there’s this news release from the Governor’s Office back in 2006:
“Work led by Governor Bob Riley and Representatives John Knight, Jay Love and Mike Hubbard on crafting a tax cut plan has been completed and details of the proposal were announced today at a news conference in the State Capitol.”
http://governorpress.alabama.gov/pr/pr-2006-03-08-01-bipartisanagreementcuttax-photo.asp
And this news release from when the tax cut was signed into law:
“The Governor singled out Representatives John Knight and Jay Love, a Democrat and a Republican, for helping to forge a bipartisan consensus on a tax cut bill. He also praised advocacy organizations and members of his Cabinet who worked with legislators on the measure.”
http://governorpress.alabama.gov/pr/pr-2006-04-12-01-tax-cut-photo.asp
Just concede the point that Jay was the driving force behind the 2006 tax cuts and move on to other topics already.
Comment by Big Guy Jack — May 8, 2008 @ 9:36 am
No way. That was John Knight’s bill. As David Grimes pointed out, Love had no more to do with it than any other member, Love’s spin machine notwithstanding. Additionally, thanks to Love’s OWN substitute, HB 144 CANNOT be enacted without the huge tax HIKE of HB 350 - it is right there in the Jay Love Tax Hike Bill 350. And Danny, please note the “comment name” above and delete the post.
Comment by John Deere Lies — May 8, 2008 @ 9:46 am
Just looked up Jay Love’s alleged “tax cut” bill 144. According to the language ADDED BY JAY LOVE the bill CANNOT be enacted unless HB 350 - a retroactive tax hike vehemently opposed by Alabama business and the GOP - is enacted. (Source - Alabama Legislative Information Service).
If HB 144 passes we get a huge retroactive tax hike on business courtesy of Jay Love. And that is true and provable in black and white. I just cited actual source material.
Comment by John Deere Lies — May 8, 2008 @ 9:52 am
Why would John Deere Lies care about my comment name, especially if he can get away with calling John Deere, a respected manufacturer of farm equipment, a liar? I’m just a happy fat guy named Jack. What’s wrong with that?
Comment by Big Guy Jack — May 8, 2008 @ 9:57 am
From the JAY LOVE substitute for HB 144 as recorded on the Alabama Legislative Information System (ALISON)- if HB 350 OF THE 2008 regualr session (the retroactive tax hike) IS NOT ENACTED, the provisions of HB 144 become NULL AND VOID.
That is what Love inserted into his bill. Therefore, the only way for his small tax break to go into effect is for us to have a HUGE RETROACTIVE TAX HIKE on BUSINESS that has been opposed ALL SESSION LONG by REAL REPUBLICANS.
That is the truth.
Comment by John Deere Lies — May 8, 2008 @ 9:59 am
By the by, I haven’t seen you cite ALISON a single time to “prove” your assertions.
Liar.
Comment by John Deere Lies — May 8, 2008 @ 10:01 am
Can you explain why Riley would give him credit for the tax cuts dating back to 2006 if Jay played no role?
Comment by Big Guy Jack — May 8, 2008 @ 10:12 am
I have pointed this out before. I highly doubt that Jack Campbell or Dax Swatek have the time to sit here and monitor this site and post comments. If they do, they should think things through because a campaign will not be won or lost in the comment section of this website.
Comment by William Wyatt Wallace — May 8, 2008 @ 10:15 am
Sorry John Deere Lies… I guess I should have followed my own advice and cited where I got my information. Please take a look at the following article by the Decatur Daily and let me know what you think. You’ll notice that it was a compromise bill the took in parts of the Love bill and parts of the Knight bill.
Compromise tax measure in committee today.
Source: Decatur Daily (Decatur, AL)
Publication Date: 14-MAR-06
Byline: M.J. Ellington
Mar. 14–MONTGOMERY — Legislators will scrutinize income tax cut proposals when the House education budget committee meets today. Lawmakers expect to take up a compromise bill that combines portions of two bills: Gov. Bob Riley’s original plan (HB 290) sponsored by Rep. Jay Love, R-Montgomery, and HB292, the bill originally favored by Democrats and sponsored by Rep. John Knight, D-Montgomery. House Minority Leader Mike Hubbard, R-Auburn, expects to introduce compromise measures that combine parts of the Love and Knight bills as a substitute for Knight’s bill. Here is what the different plans do: — HB292, sponsored by Knight: Currently in the House Education, Finance and Appropriations Committee, the bill would increase personal, dependent and standard income tax deductions on Alabama income taxes. As introduced, it exempts Alabama families of four from paying state income tax if their income is less than about $18,500. It depends on voters approving a constitutional amendment to raise personal, state and dependent exemptions on state income tax as allowed. Lawmakers expect HB292 to be amended or substituted.
– HB290, sponsored by Love: Currently in the House Education, Finance and Appropriations Committee, the bill would increase the income level at which Alabamians begin paying state income taxes to $15,000. It increases personal, dependent and standard income tax deductions. Lawmakers expect the bill to remain in committee.
– Expected substitute for HB292 by Hubbard: The substitute bill should be in the House Education, Finance and Appropriations Committee today.
As discussed last week, the Hubbard substitute, a compromise version of the Love and Knight bills, raises the level at which Alabamians pay state income tax in five steps to $12,500. The Hubbard substitute depends on at least 3 percent tax revenue growth in state education revenue to increase to the next level and begins with a 2007 threshold of $7,900 for when a family of four would start paying state income taxes.
Copyright (c) 2006, The Decatur Daily, Ala.
Comment by John Deere — May 8, 2008 @ 11:13 am
So basically’s tax cutting agenda is actually just him being Riley’s workmule in the house. He pulls the cart. Makes sense. How many tax cuts did he come up with on his own?
Comment by William Wyatt Wallace — May 8, 2008 @ 12:27 pm
Wallace, he (Jay Love) has passed exactly ONE bill ion his entire life - source: Alabama Legislative Information Service (ALISON). It was a payout of our taxpayer money to state employees. Fact. Why doesn’t Jay brag about the ONLY bill he has ever passed on his ads? Is he ashamed of it? He accomplished paying more of our taxpayer money to state employees . .that is something he actually DID. Trumpet THAT.
Why does he instead try to take credit for someone else’s bill?
HB 290 died in committee. John Knight’s bill passed. Fact.
Comment by Heard that one before — May 8, 2008 @ 2:38 pm
I just read the factual history of JOHN KNIGHT’s tax cut bill- HB 292. Jay Love offered an amendment tro that bill - it was TABLED (killed). The substitute was by MIKE HUBBARD - NOT LOVE. It was officially a substitute from the Education Appropriations committee -on which Jay Love does NOT serve and therefore had NO PART OF. MIKE HUBBARD was on that committeee and MIKE HUBBARD submitted the substitute. Jay Love had NO PARTICIPATION.
By official ALISON records, Jay Love had NOTHING to do with the final bill as passed. Nothing. Zilch.
Stop trying to create the illusion he was the sponsor of this bill. His already bottom-scraping credibility is being damaged even more. I can cite fact after fact after fact that shows conclusively that Love is NOT responsible for the tax cut bill from actual unimpeachable sources. All you can offer are press releases written to further political campaigns and news articles that are scarce on facts.
Comment by Heard that one before — May 8, 2008 @ 3:40 pm
Heard that one before (aka John Deere Lies)is becoming quite tiresome. Assuming you are for Harri Anne, has she passed any bills of note into law? I’m willing to bet that your buddy ALISON says she hasn’t. The Alabama media and Bob Riley say Jay Love has.
Comment by Big Guy Jack — May 8, 2008 @ 3:41 pm
ALISON does NOT say Jay has passed ANY consequential bills. In fact, ALISON says Jay has passed precisely ONE BILL - a BILL THAT GAVE LUMP SUM PAYOUTS TO STATE EMPLOYEES WITH TAXPAYER MONEY. (SOURCE: OFFICIAL records of the Alabama State Legislature).
That is IT. That is a FACT. You CANNOT ARGUE THAT POINT.
I just proved that. You have proven nothing - you just cite a bunch of press stuff that have no facts in them. And I haven’t said word one about Smith - I am just not going to let you continue the Lying Legacy of Love on here any more. I will challenge your lies. Get used to it.
Comment by Heard that one before — May 8, 2008 @ 4:18 pm
Big Jack, I edited your moniker for reasons you can probably figure out. I am not the only one who objected to it.
Also, “Standing for truth…”/”Big Jack” and “Heard that one before”/”John Deere Lies” and everyone else, I ask that you use one name in the replies to a comment.
Thanks.
Comment by Danny — May 9, 2008 @ 7:59 am
The union of Feederal Employees today endorsed Obama. So since Jay Love has the active support of the Alabama State Employees Union, it looks like an Obama/Love ticket for state and federal employees! Look for the UNION LABEL!
Comment by Anonymous — May 9, 2008 @ 2:10 pm