Posted by The conventional wisdom on the Republican side of the 2nd Congressional Race is that there are too many viable candidates for anyone to receive a majority of the vote in the June 3rd primary. So with two tickets out of the primary, it’s pretty clear that the regional split between the Wiregrass and Montgomery metro area will result in a Republican from each end of the district in the runoff. With Harri Anne Smith perceived to have coalesced the Dothan/Wiregrass area behind her campaign, all that’s left will be to see which Republican comes out of Montgomery.
The early money was on Jay Love. The former Subway shop owner and state representative has the right profile for a GOP primary, implicit backing of the Montgomery GOP establishment including the Governor, and the ability to inject his own money into the campaign. However, somewhere along the road to the Love coronation, the parade has gotten a little off track. Fellow Montgomery State Rep. David Grimes was thought by many to be unlikely to actually make the ballot. Grimes will likely be outspent heavily by most of his opponents, but as a popular local Montgomery official any vote he gets will come off of Love.
But the biggest hurdle to Love’s path to the runoff is David Woods. When the TV mogul declared for the race, many expected his to follow the same ill-fated path as his war hero father’s political career. But Woods not only looks to be able to match Love dollar for dollar from his own pocket, but actually outraised Love in the 1st Quarter this year. Love’s inability to show the fundraising pop expected of a frontrunner, has opened the door for a challenge in his own backyard. If Woods is able to achieve a rough parity with Love in the Montgomery area, the Woods’ family roots in the Wiregrass might steal enough votes to thrust Woods into the runoff with Harri Anne Smith.
By no means should Love be counted out. He’s still the lead horse on the Montgomery side of the GOP race. But his path to victory in AL-02 seems to be growing more difficult and it no longer seems inconceivable his bid for Congress could end sooner rather than later.
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I think the storyline out that the governor is in Love’s corner isn’t true. I suspect the governor’s feelings — if he had any to begin with — are running a little cooler now after a couple of recent votes in the House.
Who wrote this crap? It was obviously not Danny. That must have come from someone in Montgomery that knows little of what is going on in the Wiregrass. Smith is not doing well and certainly it is not assumed she will make a run off. Like Grimes splintering off votes from Love, Schmidtke who has spent considerable money, and will splinter off votes from Smith. She has been less than impressive thus far…ask anyone about her stumbling. The only correct assumption in this story, is that Woods is coming on strong not only in Montgomery but in the Wiregrass. Also true that Love has been less than impressive raising money in the first quarter. The idea that a run off will include one Wiregrass candidate and one Montgomery candidate is not likely to happen in my view. We could in fact have two Montgomery candidates with Smith left to take her ball and go home. Before such articles are posted, spend some time outside of Montgomery Chauncey.
Chauncey seems to have been geting the same info that a lot of people in Montgomery have been hearing lately – that Love is in some trouble. This can’t just be blamed on supporters of other candidates. The failings for Love are right there in black and white – and in the red of his campaign finances. Chauncey really nailed it when he mentioned the fundraising difficulties.
It isn’t crap. Chauncey is respected. Don’t attack the messenger. The news that Love is struggling is not Chauncey’s fault – he is just commenting on some things that a lot of people are hearing.
Love is slipping – I think that is true. But the fact that Smith may survive the primary and make it to a run off I think is a little off. I agree with the previous poster on that. She has made a mess down here so far. If she does make it to a run off – I think she will lose to either Love or Woods and one of them will be the challenger to Bright in November.
I find it amusing there is a post on here reflecting a good deal of conversation ion poltical circles in Montgomery (by actual people who have seen numbers, etc.) about the troubles Love is facing, and Love’s supporters immediately start yammering on about Harri Anne being in trouble.
That wasn’t what Chauncey’s posted, guys. And that is not what people who know about this election are talking about. Note that Schmidtke – like Love – is fading. That adds up to good things for Woods and Smith. Since Love’s people can’t stomach that, they try to spin an insightful piece about Love’s problems into an indictment of Smith.
It’s too funny really.
Love does seem weaker than many expected. But I have read so many posts on here recently about numbers. I have yet to see anyone tell what those numbers are from an unbiased poll. In terms of Love folks jumping on Smith I have not seen that in this specific thread. The thread so far says Love looks weak…that is not disputed. It also notes Smith has “stumbled” and if you have paid attention, that is not disputed. The posts also seem to aggree that Woods looks stronger than expected. That is not disputed. So stop trying to make this a Love vs. Smith brawl. Anytime someone says Smith looks like she is lost, it is assumed a Love supporter said it. Get over it…she looks lost, and no, I do not suport Love.
PKG I see your point. But Chauncey’s post implies strongly that Smith is the frontrunner to make the runoff (see last line of next to last paragraph) and goes in-depth about Love’s struggles. That wouldn’t seem to be a post that would inspire lots of commentary about SMITH having trouble. The POSTERS on here have talked about Smith’s problems and ignored the legitimite points made by Chauncey. That is where the “spin” comes in. And yes I would say that would. by definition, be “Love supporters jumping on Smith.”
It’s a diversionary tactic.
I don’t think anyone would argue that Smith has not made errors. She has made plenty. But that isn’t what Chauncey is talking about here. Chauncey is tryig to get past the small stuff and focus on the big picture today, one month before the election.
I would also guess Chauncey may have had access to the numbers talked about.
There is a lot of talk about the “numbers” that are showing one canadidate doing better than another. where are these polls ? has anyone seen them ? have they been posted anywhere ? or is this “inside info” that only those with the info,are privy to ?
while smith has been a good sen. for her district, she has made some serious blunders, grimes seems to be doing well and causing people to keep their eye on the issues, but he is seriously under funded.
Woods, is doing better than expected, he has financial backing, and as the others start losing support, I expect he will start picking it up.
love, seems to be his own worst enemy, he makes statements that come back to haunt him, like taking credit for legislation that is someone elses.
this is shaping up to be an interesting race. I noticed that there were no “bright” ideas posted
Bright’s a given for the Dem candidate. Nothing to debate or spin there. Despite Smith’s blunders, she may do well in the wiregrass. Although, Schmidtke may take enough wiregrass votes to knock her out of a run-off. I think a lot depends on what she does between now and Jun 3rd. That leaves Love, Woods, and Grimes. Woods and Love are the big spenders. I would love to sees a recent, unbaised, poll. But in the absence of such poll, I would have to guess that we’ll see a Love/Woods run-off. Next FEC report due May 22 – I am really interested in seeing how much was spent on TV ads by Woods and Love. By the way has anyone seen any candidates’s Financial disclosure. They were due May 3rd.
Why do you think everyone in Montgomery is so up on Bright? Weak GOP Field = Bright’s a Congressman!
Real Talk – You are right about a weak Rep field. However, Bright is not a sure thing in Nov. I’ve said it before, so I’ll say it again – the Reps at the national level are in trouble with the voters, and s… flows downhill. Additionally, most of the national polls show that voters are moving away from the Reps. Check out RealPolitics.com for some interesting numbers. Before everyone jumps on me, I know that national polls may not be indicative of the conservative south, but they can be a predictor of things to come. The “I’m a conservative christian” slogan just doesn’t carry the weight it did a few cycles ago. I do not believe that we can be assured of a Rep victory just because the district has voted Rep for the last couple of decades. Remember – whats goes around comes around.
bright will be tough. and if there is a weak candidate, and i personally believe smith is, then bright will win. i’m a republican and i think we would be better of with bright if it is a choice between him and smith. hopefully it will not come to that. and i am not the only republican that feels that way…. i am leaning toward woods now.
Based on the facts regarding the status of the present day economy, most people across the US are wanting some sort of change and soon. Most are desperate for relief from soaring fuel and food costs. A DEM in 02 appears to be what is needed, as Congress is majority DEM. If a REP gets elected, it won’t change the majority of Congress and will just mean further stalling and zero action being taken. For God’s sake, the people need a break on trying to survive these gas prices and in feeding the kids.
02 needs a voice in the matter and one that will make a difference for what really counts to us.
vote for change – what have dems in the house and senate done to control gas prices since they took over power? nothing – in fact proces are up. we don’t drill in the gulf – in alaska – or build more refineries? why??? because dems block it. get a grip…
Danny you have to have a better picture of Jay Love, he looks like a goober in that one. Looks like the photographer told him to say “DERRRRRRRRRRRR” for the picture.
wallace – that pic is fine.
It is an excellent likeness. He IS a goober . . . .
who in the race is not a goober????????
That’s Love? I thought it was Troy King.
Both goobers
Hmmm . . .interesting duo. Jay has more brain power, but he uses it to lie. So I cannot say which of the Goober Bros – Jay Isuzu ar Boy King – is worse. It’s like comparing two different “Air Supply” albums . . .
I do get the impression Troy King is a little over his head as AG. I doubt he can make a move to higher office such as Governor, for example.