AL-02 Poll #’s
MRI has been polling the race for the GOP nomination for the 2nd Congressional District. Confirmed. (MRI does the polling for the Smith campaign.)
Though the campaign did not want to confirm (or deny) the numbers as I have them, I feel confident these are the results of the latest Smith tracking poll.
| Harri Anne Smith | 21% |
| Jay Love | 16% |
| David Woods | 15% |
| Craig Schmidtke | 9% |
| David Grimes | 4% |
Other candidates did not register.
The polling was done after Smith skipped the television debate and fumbled the Country Crossing issue. We can probably agree that those episodes didn’t register in the minds of most voters though many people here certainly took note. In an early poll in October before the field was settled, Smith was at 24%.
If we continue to look at this as Wiregrass vs. the Montgomery area, then it looks like Love and Woods are scrambling to make the run-off as the Montgomery candidate against Smith. If Smith slips so much that two Montgomery candidates are in a run-off for the nomination, that will be quite a story.
FWIW, I am a bit surprised that newcomer Schmidtke is as high as he is.
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What a shock that these are numbers from Harri Anne’s polling firm. I wonder how the question(s) were asked. Was it a push poll or more of a true, unbiased poll. I would ask the same no matter what candidate ran it. I do agree though, that Love should worry.
Comment by drfeelgood — May 5, 2008 @ 1:20 pm
Danny - the things that I think are important here:
Smith lost some ground - but not much - after several gaffes. She could have fallen much more, but only fell within the poll range of error. With her regional advantage, she will make the runoff if she doesn’t melt down. Remember, her TV hasn’t even started that - she has that bump coming.
Polling in early February - right before TV ads started from Love, Schmidtke, and Woods - had Love at 15% and Woods and Schmidtke in low single digits. By any objective measure, Love’s ads have flopped while Woods have created notable upward moemntum
I don’t think Schmidtke can close enough to be a factor. He has spent a quarter of a million and he is still in singles.
Grimes has to do something soon or he is also out.
In short - big news for Woods. Smith should be very relieved but still wary. Love - just like Chauncey talked about below - in some trouble.
Comment by Anonymous — May 5, 2008 @ 1:22 pm
It is odd that Smith always publicizes numbers that she runs. I wonder if these are actually correct. The last time she showed numbers they didn’t factor in the undecided. Should we believe from these numbers that undecided is 35%?
I agree that I am leary of any candidate’s own poll.
Comment by Holmes — May 5, 2008 @ 1:25 pm
What was the margin of error?
Comment by William Wyatt Wallace — May 5, 2008 @ 1:26 pm
I agree that the winner so far seems to be Woods. He has gained a lot. But it is true about the undecided numbers. Danny - what is the undecided in the poll?
We still have about 30 days and I bet most folks will truly decide who to vote for closer to June 3.
Comment by eightyeight — May 5, 2008 @ 1:28 pm
FWIW I believe that other polls being done in this race are running simlarly to this one. I would also note that Schmidtke paid very dearly to get to 9% so I am not as surprised as Danny by his showing - he has spent as much as anyone in the race. The question now will be if he can maintain that spending. I highly doubt he can, and will finish lower than his current showing.
Comment by Anonymous — May 5, 2008 @ 1:31 pm
Schmidtke can maintain that level all day long - but I doubt he will make it to a run off by any means. I would like to see other polls to see if these numbers match up. I bet they do, though. Most folks are still undecided.
Senator Smith should feel relieved
Jay Love should feel worried
David Wood should feel optimistic
Out of everyone it does seem like good news for Woods.
Comment by Anonymous — May 5, 2008 @ 1:54 pm
Know what strikes me? Advertising seems to be failing at reaching voters (although Woods is finding some success). Smith hasn’t launchd her TV yet - it will be interesting to see if her ads move voters.
It may come down to old-fashioned stuff like where the candidates are from (regional rivalries. etc.) and simply who voters identify with the most (rural vs. urban, etc.)
I bet a lot of voters remain undecided right up until June 3.
Comment by Anonymous — May 5, 2008 @ 2:03 pm
Also can we expect an AL Line update before June 3rd?
Comment by William Wyatt Wallace — May 5, 2008 @ 2:19 pm
I bet Bright loves that poll. He rather run against Smith than about anyone.
Comment by MayornotsoBright — May 5, 2008 @ 2:34 pm
Bobby wants a Montgomery-based opponent. It’s what Anzalone is banking on. He does not want a wiregrass opponent. Bright wants hevay turnout in Montgomery and a disinterested wiregrass.
Comment by Anonymous — May 5, 2008 @ 2:49 pm
ONE THING IS CLEAR. WE WILL HAVE A RUN OFF FOR SURE.
The key is who will get the undecided voters and the way the trend looks, Woods might do well with that group. Smith is lucky she has not slipped more and when she begins to run ads it will be interesting to see if she gets a bump at all. And I am not sure what is up with Love. Grimes may garner just enough votes to really sting Love and knock him out. Grimes has no chance though at actually winning. Same with Martin.
Bright is going to sit back and raise money and watch the Republicans go at it in an expensive primary and run off. I hate to see that…
Comment by BBB — May 5, 2008 @ 2:49 pm
I agree that bright would mop the floor with Smith.
Comment by BBB — May 5, 2008 @ 2:51 pm
We have been through this before, BBB. Smith has a chance against Bright since she would have the Wiregrass. Bright is stronger against Montgomery-area candidates. I can tell you this much, Anzalone (Bobby’s consultant) is praying he’ll get someone from Montgomery - and he knows what he is doing.
Comment by Don't think so . . . — May 5, 2008 @ 3:12 pm
I do not agree. If the candidate from the Wiregrass was stronger, maybe. But Smith will not be strong against Bright. Bright has more leadership, better debate and speaking skills, and comes off as a leader. Other folks can hold their own against him much better in my opinion.
Comment by BBB — May 5, 2008 @ 4:13 pm
Smith would run stronger against Bright simply because of her regional advantage. Besides, I doubt most people in the Wiregrass decide who they will support for Congress based on their speaking skills. Not intended as a slight to any of the good people of the Second District, but Harri Anne Smith talks like most of the voters do in south Alabama.
Comment by Terry — May 5, 2008 @ 4:46 pm
I seriously have to question the logic of some of the Bright pushers out there. First, they assume Bright will out raise his opponents. If one looks to his fundraising from the previous quarter, his fundraising prowess just is not there. Now, I know many will say that he does not need to raise funds as he has, in effect, no primary, with all respect to the Sabel supporters out there. Do not forget that, under federal election law, an individual can raise around $2,300 (it is indexed for inflation) for a primary and around $2,300 for a general election per donor. If he is not raising funds now, he is cutting himself off at the knees. Actually, based upon the 50-50 split, it would be more similar to cutting himself off at the waist. As I have said on this board before, those used to running state and local races are in for a completely different ball game now that federal fundraising laws are in play.
Second, it appears more and more likely that David Woods is a real possibility to be the Republican nominee. No guarantees, of course, but his advertising blitz will continue unabated right up to the primary, which, in my mind, is what will make the difference. Remember, Love is relegated to cable television, Smith is hoping the radio is still relevant, whereas Woods is running his ads on both cable and network television. There is a major difference in scope. The reason I bring up Woods is that he, among all the other candidates in this race, best understands the three Ms of politics: money, money, and money. Whereas Bright’s strategy relies upon heavy fundraising and donations from national Democratic campaign committees, Woods can and will self-finance his campaign. That makes a substantial difference in a federal race, particularly when one is dealing with the federal guidelines mentioned previously. Wiregrass-nationalists not withstanding, theirs is not a region where the political impact of wide-scale advertising does not apply. If I were Bright, I would hope for two things: the district 5 race does not tighten enough so that the national Democrats must spend money in that district, money that could have otherwise gone to district 2, and that my opponent is not David Woods.
Comment by Will — May 5, 2008 @ 4:52 pm
Incidentally Terry, patronizing comments aside, I would rather have a Congressman who would garner respect in Washington than someone who sounds “like most of the voters in south Alabama.” If we elected individuals based upon their similarity to the majority, and not based upon who would best serve the district, there would be no point to having a republic. Give me the best and the brightest over the mediocre and the slowest any day.
Comment by Will — May 5, 2008 @ 4:57 pm
Thanks will, I agree with you.
Comment by BBB — May 5, 2008 @ 5:14 pm
Will — who has ever said that Bright would be a strong fundraiser? Look at his mayor’s races - he never raises much, but always out works everyone and wins.
Comment by Real Talk — May 5, 2008 @ 7:33 pm
I agree on principle, Will, and by no means am I a rabid Harri Anne supporter (I want to see Grimes win, however, that appears to be increasingly unlikely). However, in a representative democracy, the representative should reflect both the views and character of the district/state in which he or she has been elected to represent. There is of course much more to this than a way of speaking, I was just pointing out that even though Smith is not my favorite candidate in the race, she connects with many people in the 2nd District very well because she is like them (as opposed to Craig Schmidtke, who doesn’t exactly strike anyone a South Alabamian.)
Comment by Terry — May 5, 2008 @ 7:53 pm
If a candidates speand more than $350,000 of the their on money then the Millionaire Amendment goes into effect and Bright could raise as much as $6,900 per person per election. So far Love and Woods are under that may not hold true the whole race.
Comment by JJ — May 5, 2008 @ 7:58 pm
JJ, whoever the GOP candidate is out of the primary/runoff, they will have no trouble raising money. They will not have to spend their own at that point.
But folks, all this polling, while interesting, is more name ID than anything else…and yes that is important. But we have almost 30 days until the primary and the average voter out there has barely thought about this race. Thus, the leading category in the poll is UNDECIDED.
I do take offense to the fact that Terry says Harri Anne is like most people in district 2. If that is the case, Lord help us all. Hopefully we have better sense and more convictions.
Comment by Ralph — May 5, 2008 @ 8:24 pm
Of course, Terry. Not an attack upon you, I can assure you.
Comment by Will — May 5, 2008 @ 9:14 pm
I would like to see a poll that is not one paid for by a candidate…especially smith who has a history of push polls and then publishing the numbers.
Comment by looking good — May 5, 2008 @ 9:58 pm
Can you explain the millionaire amendment?
Comment by William Wyatt Wallace — May 5, 2008 @ 10:11 pm
Millionaires’ Amendment
http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/millionaire.shtml
Comment by Anonymous — May 5, 2008 @ 11:31 pm
JJ - the millionaire amend must be read carefully. the 350,000 does not automatically mean an opponent can tap into the increased contribution limits. But it is an interesting point to make and to look at…
Comment by JBoner — May 6, 2008 @ 7:10 am
That is a terrible poll for Smith. She dropped in her own poll. Either her people are having trouble getting her to do what they tell her and this was a wake up call or she her campaign is falling apart.
I think she will have trouble making the runoff and even if she does make it she will lose to the Montgomery vote.
I appears that she is not working hard enough to win. She is trying to coast through the primary which is typical of an early favorite with a bad consultant.
Comment by Tobie — May 6, 2008 @ 9:52 am
Tobie is basically correct, but I do think HAS will make it to a run off. But she will not go any further. Once it is down to two the others will not split votes and she will lose. That is best as HAS would be a weak candidate against Mayor Bright as others have suggested.
Comment by Yepper — May 6, 2008 @ 10:52 am
No. Smith has had a very bad month, but still leads. That shows there is a core support that will not go away and I would guess that is coming from the Wiregrass. Far more important in these numbers are the stagnancy (after a month and a half media blitz) in the numbers of Love and the surge upward (with almost the same media buy) of Woods.
An impartial observer has to concede that Smith is the most likely of the major candidates to make the runoff, and I would make Woods the favorite for the other spot (and possibly the favorite to lead the primary).
Comment by Anonymous — May 6, 2008 @ 2:05 pm
Post 31, maybe you should re read Post 30. It agrees that Smith will make a run off but will likely lose at that point.
Comment by Anonymous — May 6, 2008 @ 2:48 pm
I don’t think you can rule out Smith in the runoff. I think the Wiregrass wants this seat worse than Montgomery and will turn out better in the extra election. So I think Smith will be strong in the runoff, although Woods could be too with his ties to the Wiregrass.
Comment by Anonymous — May 6, 2008 @ 4:01 pm
woods vs smith may very well happen. he might have an edge since he has strong ties to both dothan and montgomery. he was born and raised in dothan and has lived in montgomery and been part of the business community there for over twenty years. he may have a better shot than love.
Comment by Anonymous — May 6, 2008 @ 5:48 pm
it is all about TV. Schmidtke v Smith in the runoff, unless jere beasley’s ‘christian coaltion shill Brinson’ funnels enough money and lies on behalf of jay love. When christians give Christians a bad name it is not unlike the force of beauty translating honesty from what it is, into a bawd, rather than the power of honesty’s ability to translate beauty to permanent status. (Shakespeare, apologies for the malaprop of your excellent advice vis, hamlet to ophelia, but it is no better said!)
Comment by Publius — May 6, 2008 @ 9:32 pm
Publius, if TV is what counts, I would expect Woods over Schmidtke.
Comment by Will — May 7, 2008 @ 12:51 am
Schmidtke will NOT be in any runoff.
Comment by Anonymous — May 7, 2008 @ 6:12 am
No way schmidtke makes a run off, publius. any two of: love, woods, smith will be in it.
Comment by JT — May 7, 2008 @ 9:25 am
I am gonna say Schmidtke will not be in the double digits.
Comment by William Wyatt Wallace — May 7, 2008 @ 10:32 am