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Noted polling outfit Anzalone Liszt has polled the 3rd Congressional District for Democratic candidate Joshua Segall. A reader who attended a Segall fundraiser picked up a copy of the “Summary of Polling Results in Alabama’s Third Congressional District” and passed it along. You may read the whole thing (one page) here (pdf).
An excerpt:
Alabama’s Third Congressional District was drawn to be a swing district and despite years of Republican representation the district has retained its competitiveness. Republicans hold just a three-point lead on the generic ballot, and a majority of voters say things in the U.S. are moving in the wrong direction. This electorate is looking for change at the national level. Although Mike Rogers leads unknown challenger Joshua Segall, Rogers’ support is soft and falls under 50% after voters receive basic information about both candidates. The race will be competitive if Segall has the resources to compete in paid communications.
See the whole document in a pdf file.
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Looks like it will be a good race, even when you factor out the obvious slant in the report. Now comes the hard part.
Segall better get to work on raising that name ID.
It might take a huge Democratic wave to sweep him into office . . . but if there ever was a year . . . this is it. I think Segall has a shot at winning this thing. I hear they are getting real nervous over at the Republican headquarters.
“When voters receive basic information about both candidates…” What does that mean? That their party affiliations were provided? Or was it more of a “If you knew that Rogers beats his wife…” type thing? (I.e., push-poll type stuff.) They need to say what “basic information” was provided for the rest of that sentence to have any significance. Danny, do you have any idea?
maybe Mike Rogers rated about 403 outta 435 in Congress in effectiveness and sports a bad hairpiece and was formerly a plaintiff’s lawyer (Gore v. BMW anyone)??
That memo is embarassing. To say it puts lipstick on a pig is to insult the cosmetics and pork industries. All those numbers cited are far better for a Republican than similar national numbers. I also agree, with Anonymous #4, what “basic information” was provided to slant the numbers so?
Blue dot, can supporters of Bobby Segall’s son legitimately make an issue of Mike Rogers’ hair?
Good point JD – Bobby Segall’s actual hair looks worse than any rug . . .
And where do the Segalls come off criticizing anyone for being a plaintiffs’ lawyer?
Hey this is candidate to candidate hair–let’s be fair…
PS I think Folsom and Bell carried all those counties in 2006
I’ll have you know that Mike Rogers is no more a wearer of a toupee than I am!
Dick Cheney,
You are incorrect. Folsom and Bell did not carry all the CD-3 counties.
Dick Cheney (in comment #9) may have been incorrect, Susan, in that Folsom and Bell (Cobb), as you say, did not carry all the counties. However, let’s look at the numbers. The district contains 11 entire counties and 2 partial counties. Leaving out the partial counties (Coosa and Montgomery) for a moment, Folsom and Cobb each carried 8 of the 11 counties that are entirely in the district – but look further at the percentages and margins – (in each instance, listing the counties from greatest percentage vote for the Democrat to the smallest, with a few other details thrown in)
For Folsom, Macon 84.9; Russell 66.5; Chambers 62.0; Cherokee 59.3; Talladega 57.2; Randolph 55.8; Clay 51.9 (Governor Riley’s home county); Tallapoosa 51.1; Calhoun 49.6 (losing the county by 200 votes); Cleburne 49.1; and Lee 47.8.
For Cobb, Macon 85.6; Russell 63.4; Cherokee 58.2; Chambers 57.2; Talladega 57.0; Randolph 52.3; Calhoun 51.3; Clay 50.1; Tallapoosa 49.4; Lee 47.3; and Cleburne 46.3.
Just with those 11 counties included, Folsom carried the district by 14,000 votes; Cobb carried it by 11,000.
With the counties partially in the district and not wanting to resort to precinct level research for this pure curiosity, Folsom carried Coosa with 63.4 and Montgomery with 57.6. I don’t know whether the 14,000 figure would have gone up or down with the portion of the counties that are in the third district, but it is a good bet that he would still have carried the vote in the third district as a whole, either way.
Cobb carried Coosa with 61.7, and Montgomery with 59.9. Again, I offer the same caveat as with Folsom, but am pretty certain that she would have carried the third district.
Clearly, with the right Democratic candidate and the right situation, this district is winnable for the Ds. Now it is just up to Josh Segall to show that he is the right candidate and can create (with the help of $4 gas prices and the last 8 years) the right situation.
Segall is a nice young man. But with Obama at the head of the ticket, more white erstwhile democrats will not vote for him even if he was jesus christ. (hard for a jew to pull that off but that is one of his other problems). I would hope Segall would run for state senate against one of the montgomery cretins. take your pick. all state legislative officers from montgomery are dumb as a post, racist, or elitist. I guess is mirrors what is happening to Montgomery as a City, as a whole. Tis a pity.
wasn’t Jesus a Jew?
Excellent response, SIW. As for whether Obama or Clinton would increase Segall’s chances, it might be a wash. Clinton could be, I imagine, the kind of Dem who really gets the yellow dog Dems in the district excited while Obama would boost minority turnout to new heights. I would like to think that Obama’s strength among independents would carry over into places like AL 3, but I’m not 100% sure that will happen. This is still a dark horse race, but it may end up becoming the most interesting in the state this year.
I should also say that Rogers would be a fool to go after Segall’s religion.
Montgomery,
And yet, Rogers won the District for a third term in 2006. Further, it is easier for a Republican to win in a Presidential year than in a state election cycle. You can’t compare state election cycles to presidential cycles because the Republican and Democrat baselines are dramatically different.
While the district was gerrymandered to be a pick-up by the Democrats it had not turned out that way, at least in part because the fastest growing section of Montogmery county is in the district and the growth is in Republican votes.
Remember Joe Turnham had Mike Rogers beat, and he made the mistake of counting on a promised contribution of $650,000 from the National Democratic Party. The National Party did not come through and even then Turnham came within 3000 votes, if memory serves, of upsetting Rogers.