Re: Montgomery
I couldn’t agree more. This election will be completely different, which is why is I think it’s naive to think that Griffith wins “unless there is a major upset.” (Emphasis on major.) No doubt that Griffith can win, but there’s a very good reason why every objective source (Cook’s Political, Politico, etc.) have listed the race as “toss-up” (or equivalent).
To assume a walk-off win for Griffith is to fundamentally misconstrue, or misunderstand, the state of politics in the state of Alabama and how it’s changed from 1994 to now.
In 1994 we had what basically amounted to a Blue Dog Governor (Fob James), a Supreme Court that was entirely Democratic in composition (with the first Republican ever elected to the court that year), and a state legislature that was dominated by Democrats. Compare that to now when we have a true Republican governor (not commenting on James’ conservative merits just party affiliation), a Supreme Court completely dominated by Republicans, and caucuses in both bodies of the legislature that are fairly close to majorities. That’s an enormous shift in one decade.
Furthermore, you completely discount the power of incumbency in evaluating Wayne’s losses. If the race in 1994 or in 1996 is for an open seat Wayne wins. I think that’s pretty uncontroversial as it relates to ’94, though I’m sure you’ll disagree on ’96 but the incumbency is worth a substantial percentage.
Wayne also has a substantial level of grassroots support. That was the real reason for his substantial showing in 1994, not the money from the national party. He still has that grassroots support and it will payoff as the campaign unfolds.

Let’s look only two years later when Bud, with minimally more seniority, and having been “reduced” to serving in the minority was again opposed by Wayne Parker. The result then - Bud Cramer 56%, Wayne Parker 42%. Griffith wins this race, unless there is a major upset - although there were Republicans that would have had a much better chance, and possibly a better than 50/50 chance, at victory.