National Dynamics Affect Alabama Only Somewhat
Thinking about Alabama’s two congressional races this year (in the 2nd and 5th districts), and how dynamics nationally affect (and don’t affect) the candidates here…
CQPolitics this week reports on the widening disparity between the cash raised and available to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC).
And the February figures show that the imbalance between the two parties, in terms of money that each House campaign committee had left to spend on races across the nation at the end of last month, grew to its widest yet. The DCCC began March with $38 million left to spend and had $763,000 in debts, compared to $5.1 million for the NRCC, which reported $1.9 million in debts.
In addition, the accounting scandal at the NRCC that “cost House Republicans nearly $1 million” will likely cost them at least some more by some potential donors’ unwillingness to contribute to the mismanaged fund.
Surely the relatively cash-strapped RNCC would like to have back the large sum they put into a “particularly painful” loss in Illinois where the seat held for two decades by former GOP Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert was won by Democrat physicist Dennis Foster in a special election a week and a half ago.
Presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain (Ariz.) helped [GOP candidate Jim] Oberweis raise money, and the NRCC pumped more than $1.2 million into the district — using more than 20 percent of its cash on hand — to no avail.
There is more at work than the issue of the two campaign committees’ cash on hand.
“It’s no mystery,” said Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.). “You have a very unhappy electorate, which is no surprise, with oil at $108 a barrel, stocks down a few thousand points, a war in Iraq with no end in sight and a president who is still very, very unpopular. He’s just killed the Republican brand.”
Stuart Rothenberg, a nonpartisan analyst of congressional politics, said: “The math is against them. The environment is against them. The money is against them. This is one of those cycles that if you’re a Republican strategist, you just want to go into the bomb shelter.”
The real story here in Alabama may be the relative insularity of the state GOP from the troubles affecting the national GOP. Bush may have “just killed the Republican brand,” but not so much in Alabama. For example, while Bush’s approval rating nationally is 30% in a recent Fox poll and 29% in a recent CBS poll, his approval rating in Alabama is a relatively remarkable 44%. Our Republican senators Sessions and Shelby garner 60% and 59% job approval ratings, and Republican Governor Bob Riley polls a most impressive 69% approval rating. In Alabama, it is the Democratic Party that is taking hits for its connection to the two-year college scandal, though it remains to be seen to what degree this will affect any election.
Whereas voters in Illinois and elsewhere may be taking out their dissatisfaction on GOP candidates, plenty of Alabama Republicans are glad that is not so much the case in Alabama - to the point that a Democrat (Tom Butler) interested in a seat held by a retiring Democrat (U.S. Rep. Bud Cramer) would rather switch and run as a Republican. Even the Democrats in Alabama who are running for Congress as Democrats are not particularly embracing the Democrat label.
Related Articles:
(R) Jeff Sessions (1-19)
(D) Vivian Figures (33-1)
(D) Artur Davis (1-49)
(R) Mike Hubbard (13-1)
(?) David Bronner (OFF)
All Spin all the time:
” In Alabama, it is the Democratic Party that is taking hits for its connection to the two-year college scandal, though it remains to be seen to what degree this will affect any election.”
This is proof the two-year college scandal is being used for partisian, political gain.
“For example, while Bush’s approval rating nationally is 30% in a recent Fox poll and 29% in a recent CBS poll, his approval rating in Alabama is a relatively remarkable 44%. Our Republican senators Sessions and Shelby garner 60% and 59% job approval ratings, and Republican Governor Bob Riley polls a most impressive 69% approval rating.”
If the above poll numbers are true it’s proof that the voters in Alabama vote against their own self interest.
Comment by bhmhomboy — March 27, 2008 @ 3:02 pm
I’ve not seen any poll numbers to indicate the two year college scandal is negatively affecting Alabamians’ attitudes towards Alabama Democrats.
I think there are some real cases of mismanagement in the scandal but it’s mostly smoke and mirrors, kind of like the Siegelman case. The truth is most Alabamians see politicians in general as corrupt, but generally like their own representative, senator, or even governor and view those individuals as above the fray.
Also, I’d like to once again raise AL 3 as potentially competitive. It may not be the fireworks of AL 2 or 5, but Segall’s connnections could make the race competitive at least from a financial standpoint.
Comment by SamfordDem — March 27, 2008 @ 6:21 pm